UK covid not over

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bob sterman
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Re: UK covid not over

Post by bob sterman » Wed Jul 06, 2022 7:32 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Wed Jul 06, 2022 3:04 pm
Martin_B wrote:
Wed Jul 06, 2022 9:44 am
Herainestold wrote:
Wed Jul 06, 2022 4:37 am
I am stockpiling PPE, storable food and everyday medical supplies. It could be a long and grim winter.
Still? You made the same post 2 weeks ago: viewtopic.php?p=125352#p125352
I have to admit I am worried.
Would you care to explain what makes you think winter 2022/23 will be worse than winter 2021/22???

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Re: UK covid not over

Post by shpalman » Sat Jul 09, 2022 6:19 pm

having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: UK covid not over

Post by Herainestold » Sun Jul 17, 2022 6:56 pm

bob sterman wrote:
Wed Jul 06, 2022 7:32 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Wed Jul 06, 2022 3:04 pm
Martin_B wrote:
Wed Jul 06, 2022 9:44 am


Still? You made the same post 2 weeks ago: viewtopic.php?p=125352#p125352
I have to admit I am worried.
Would you care to explain what makes you think winter 2022/23 will be worse than winter 2021/22???
Yes, I am still preparing for another covid onslaught, if only our health authorities would do the same.

The pace of mutation has picked up, the virus becomes even more transmissible, people are being infected and reinfected in the same month, as now prior infection does not confer immunity. Every infection increases the likelihood of long covid and organ damage.

Vaccine effectiveness is slowly being eroded.

There is only so much you can do as an individual. We need mask mandates, gathering restrictions and we may yet need dynamic lockdown to slow surges.

We are too complacent, covid isn't over, it is getting worse. And our NHS is losing its ability to protect us.
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bob sterman
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Re: UK covid not over

Post by bob sterman » Sun Jul 17, 2022 8:02 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Sun Jul 17, 2022 6:56 pm
bob sterman wrote:
Wed Jul 06, 2022 7:32 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Wed Jul 06, 2022 3:04 pm


I have to admit I am worried.
Would you care to explain what makes you think winter 2022/23 will be worse than winter 2021/22???
Yes, I am still preparing for another covid onslaught, if only our health authorities would do the same.

The pace of mutation has picked up, the virus becomes even more transmissible, people are being infected and reinfected in the same month, as now prior infection does not confer immunity. Every infection increases the likelihood of long covid and organ damage.

Vaccine effectiveness is slowly being eroded.

There is only so much you can do as an individual. We need mask mandates, gathering restrictions and we may yet need dynamic lockdown to slow surges.

We are too complacent, covid isn't over, it is getting worse. And our NHS is losing its ability to protect us.
Lots of assertions there without evidence.

The pace of mutation has picked up? Recently? Got a citation for that?

Reinfection within a month? A widespread issue? Got a citation for that?

Prior infection does not confer immunity? Any immunity? Got a citation for that?

Can I ask - have you had COVID yet?

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Re: UK covid not over

Post by Herainestold » Sun Jul 17, 2022 8:36 pm

I have not had covid. I am extremely careful.

As for your other questions:

https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2022/07/04/ ... er-Plague/

I hope you remain well.
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bob sterman
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Re: UK covid not over

Post by bob sterman » Sun Jul 17, 2022 8:54 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Sun Jul 17, 2022 8:36 pm
I have not had covid. I am extremely careful.

As for your other questions:

https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2022/07/04/ ... er-Plague/

I hope you remain well.
I was hoping for some direct scientific citations. And you've managed to exaggerate the claims in that article (which arguably already contains quite a bit of exaggeration).

You seem to be seeking out the most pessimistic journalism and then adding hyperbole.

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Re: UK covid not over

Post by shpalman » Tue Jul 19, 2022 5:17 pm

experts say Covid may never settle into a seasonal cycle
Now, successive variants, including the latest BA.2.75 variant, nicknamed Centaurus, are being driven primarily by “immune escape” – the ability to infect people who have been vaccinated and infected, even fairly recently.

The Australian Health Protection Principal Committee advised this week that infections of BA.4/BA.5 variants could occur as early as 28 days after recovery from a previous Covid-19 infection.

“It almost seems as if the rate of replacement of new variants has accelerated,” he said. “There is a shift in what’s driving evolution.”
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: UK covid not over

Post by Herainestold » Fri Jul 22, 2022 1:33 am

shpalman wrote:
Tue Jul 19, 2022 5:17 pm

The Australian Health Protection Principal Committee advised this week that infections of BA.4/BA.5 variants could occur as early as 28 days after recovery from a previous Covid-19 infection.

“It almost seems as if the rate of replacement of new variants has accelerated,” he said. “There is a shift in what’s driving evolution.”
Covid once per month. Thats what we have to look forward to.
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Re: UK covid not over

Post by shpalman » Sat Jul 23, 2022 12:33 pm

WFJ wrote:
Wed Jun 29, 2022 4:24 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Wed Jun 29, 2022 3:33 pm
Captalism is bad for life expectancy.
Do you have any empirical evidence for that?
The current state of the NHS
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Re: UK covid not over

Post by WFJ » Sat Jul 23, 2022 2:04 pm

shpalman wrote:
Sat Jul 23, 2022 12:33 pm
WFJ wrote:
Wed Jun 29, 2022 4:24 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Wed Jun 29, 2022 3:33 pm
Captalism is bad for life expectancy.
Do you have any empirical evidence for that?
The current state of the NHS
If you're measuring how capitalist a health system is by what proportion of its funding comes from comes from public money, the UK has one of the least capitalist systems in the world. Its problem is underfunding, not economic system.

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Re: UK covid not over

Post by shpalman » Tue Aug 23, 2022 7:27 pm

Fewer people died of covid in the UK in 2022 so far compared to this time in 2021

But if you cherry pick the right period of the year there are some which are worse in 2022.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: UK covid not over

Post by plodder » Sat Sep 10, 2022 2:17 pm

shpalman wrote:
Tue Aug 23, 2022 7:27 pm
Fewer people died of covid in the UK in 2022 so far compared to this time in 2021

But if you cherry pick the right period of the year there are some which are worse in 2022.
Is that related to this? (no idea if it’s accurate)

https://mobile.twitter.com/1goodtern/st ... 6841348096

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Re: UK covid not over

Post by shpalman » Sat Sep 10, 2022 2:49 pm

plodder wrote:
Sat Sep 10, 2022 2:17 pm
shpalman wrote:
Tue Aug 23, 2022 7:27 pm
Fewer people died of covid in the UK in 2022 so far compared to this time in 2021

But if you cherry pick the right period of the year there are some which are worse in 2022.
Is that related to this? (no idea if it’s accurate)

https://mobile.twitter.com/1goodtern/st ... 6841348096
I don't know, but I note that new excess death data shows 0-14 age group across Europe (38 Euromomo countries) dying at 📌10x the rate versus 2021 in week 35, & age 15-44 group dying at 📌30% higher than 2021 according to Eric Feigl-Ding and the graphs he's drawn on.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: UK covid not over

Post by Herainestold » Sun Sep 11, 2022 2:39 pm

shpalman wrote:
Sat Sep 10, 2022 2:49 pm
plodder wrote:
Sat Sep 10, 2022 2:17 pm
shpalman wrote:
Tue Aug 23, 2022 7:27 pm
Fewer people died of covid in the UK in 2022 so far compared to this time in 2021

But if you cherry pick the right period of the year there are some which are worse in 2022.
Is that related to this? (no idea if it’s accurate)

https://mobile.twitter.com/1goodtern/st ... 6841348096
I don't know, but I note that new excess death data shows 0-14 age group across Europe (38 Euromomo countries) dying at 📌10x the rate versus 2021 in week 35, & age 15-44 group dying at 📌30% higher than 2021 according to Eric Feigl-Ding and the graphs he's drawn on.
We are pretending Covid has gone away. It has not. It has morphed into something insidious, more dangerous because we choose to ignore it.
Masking forever
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Russian socialism will rise again

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Re: UK covid not over

Post by Herainestold » Tue Feb 21, 2023 5:35 pm

Covid has reached the point where most people do not fear the infection, but the consequences of Long Covid can be severe.
Long Covid causes erectile dysfunction and hair loss as symptoms list widens

A surge in cases is indicating a new wave has started in the UK
Hair loss and erectile dysfunction have joined the list of long Covid symptoms, according to new research.

The study found that while the most common symptoms include loss of smell, shortness of breath and chest pain, others include amnesia, erectile dysfunction, hallucinations, an inability to perform familiar movements or commands, bowel incontinence and limb swelling.

Patterns of symptoms tended to be grouped into respiratory symptoms, mental health and cognitive problems, and then a broader range of symptoms.
The study suggests that females, younger people, and those belonging to a Black, mixed-race or other ethnic group are at greater risk of developing long Covid.

Additionally, those from a poorer background, smokers, and people who are overweight or obese, as well as those with any of a wide range of health conditions, were more likely to report persistent symptoms.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/heal ... 84600.html
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Re: UK covid not over

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Jan 09, 2024 3:11 pm

Thread suggests that deaths during autumn of 2023 are within what is expected from long term trends, or in other words excess deaths from Covid (or another disease) were not significant at a population level.
https://x.com/Jean__Fisch/status/174469 ... 57437?s=20

Of course Covid is still around but it appears that its impact on mortality in a highly immune population is much reduced.

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Re: UK covid not over

Post by IvanV » Tue Jan 09, 2024 8:02 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Jan 09, 2024 3:11 pm
Thread suggests that deaths during autumn of 2023 are within what is expected from long term trends, or in other words excess deaths from Covid (or another disease) were not significant at a population level.
https://x.com/Jean__Fisch/status/174469 ... 57437?s=20

Of course Covid is still around but it appears that its impact on mortality in a highly immune population is much reduced.
The tweeter is quite correct when they say that isn't what you read elsewhere. Though what you "expect[] from long term trends" may differ according to what changes you take into account to adjust trends to a short term forecast, it doesn't necessarily mean the same thing as saying that we are back long term trends, within statistical uncertainty. For the latter is clearly is not the case.

For an example of what you may read elsewhere, this article in The Lancet says:
Many countries, including the UK, have continued to experience an apparent excess of deaths long after the peaks associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021. Numbers of excess deaths estimated in this period are considerable. The UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) has calculated that there were 7.2% or 44,255 more deaths registered in the UK in 2022 based on comparison with the five-year average (excluding 2020). This persisted into 2023 with 8.6% or 28,024 more deaths registered in the first six months of the year than expected.

The Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) found a similar excess (28,500 deaths) for the same period using different methods. Several methods can be used to estimate excess deaths, each with limitations which should be considered in interpretation, however the overall trends tend to be consistent across the various methods.

The causes of these excess deaths are likely to be multiple and could include the direct effects of Covid-19 infection, acute pressures on NHS acute services resulting in poorer outcomes from episodes of acute illness, and disruption to chronic disease detection and management. Further analysis by cause and by age- and sex-group may help quantify the relative contributions of these causes.
...
Several causes, including cardiovascular diseases, show a relative excess greater than that seen in deaths from all-causes (9%) over the same period (week ending 3rd June 2022–30th June 2023), namely: all cardiovascular diseases (12%), heart failure (20%), ischaemic heart diseases (15%), liver diseases (19%), acute respiratory infections (14%), and diabetes (13%).

For middle-aged adults (50–64) in this 13-month period, the relative excess for almost all causes of death examined was higher than that seen for all ages. Deaths involving cardiovascular diseases were 33% higher than expected, while for specific cardiovascular diseases, deaths involving ischaemic heart diseases were 44% higher, cerebrovascular diseases 40% higher and heart failure 39% higher. Deaths involving acute respiratory infections were 43% higher than expected and for diabetes, deaths were 35% higher. Deaths involving liver diseases were 19% higher than expected for those aged 50–64, the same as for deaths at all ages.
So, yes, direct Covid deaths are quite low now. Deaths with Covid on the death certificate are about 30 per week in the last 6 months, which is rather lower than the preceeding 6 months. But more widely there is still a lot of excess death, both here and in most of our comparator countries on the continent. Countries with better managed health like Scandinavia have about half the excess death rate of Britain, but even they have on-going excess death rates. Some other comparator countries have excess death rates nearer to Britain.

As the article says, we can't really pin this on specific causes. Clearly the reduced efficiency of the health services is an issue in Britain, and in other countries. But it can also potentially include indirect and delayed Covid effects.

But perhaps it depends exactly what question you are asking, and exactly what you now think is expected in comparison to previous times.

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Re: UK covid not over

Post by Opti » Wed Jan 10, 2024 9:40 am

Not UK, but in Spain masks are again mandated in healthcare settings, e.g. Hospitals, doctors surgeries etc.
I'm not sure about Farmacias but I'll find out tomorrow.
Time for a big fat one.

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Re: UK covid not over

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Jan 10, 2024 10:34 am

IvanV wrote:
Tue Jan 09, 2024 8:02 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Jan 09, 2024 3:11 pm
Thread suggests that deaths during autumn of 2023 are within what is expected from long term trends, or in other words excess deaths from Covid (or another disease) were not significant at a population level.
https://x.com/Jean__Fisch/status/174469 ... 57437?s=20

Of course Covid is still around but it appears that its impact on mortality in a highly immune population is much reduced.
The tweeter is quite correct when they say that isn't what you read elsewhere. Though what you "expect[] from long term trends" may differ according to what changes you take into account to adjust trends to a short term forecast, it doesn't necessarily mean the same thing as saying that we are back long term trends, within statistical uncertainty. For the latter is clearly is not the case.

For an example of what you may read elsewhere, this article in The Lancet says:
Many countries, including the UK, have continued to experience an apparent excess of deaths long after the peaks associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021. Numbers of excess deaths estimated in this period are considerable. The UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) has calculated that there were 7.2% or 44,255 more deaths registered in the UK in 2022 based on comparison with the five-year average (excluding 2020). This persisted into 2023 with 8.6% or 28,024 more deaths registered in the first six months of the year than expected.

The Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) found a similar excess (28,500 deaths) for the same period using different methods. Several methods can be used to estimate excess deaths, each with limitations which should be considered in interpretation, however the overall trends tend to be consistent across the various methods.

The causes of these excess deaths are likely to be multiple and could include the direct effects of Covid-19 infection, acute pressures on NHS acute services resulting in poorer outcomes from episodes of acute illness, and disruption to chronic disease detection and management. Further analysis by cause and by age- and sex-group may help quantify the relative contributions of these causes.
...
Several causes, including cardiovascular diseases, show a relative excess greater than that seen in deaths from all-causes (9%) over the same period (week ending 3rd June 2022–30th June 2023), namely: all cardiovascular diseases (12%), heart failure (20%), ischaemic heart diseases (15%), liver diseases (19%), acute respiratory infections (14%), and diabetes (13%).

For middle-aged adults (50–64) in this 13-month period, the relative excess for almost all causes of death examined was higher than that seen for all ages. Deaths involving cardiovascular diseases were 33% higher than expected, while for specific cardiovascular diseases, deaths involving ischaemic heart diseases were 44% higher, cerebrovascular diseases 40% higher and heart failure 39% higher. Deaths involving acute respiratory infections were 43% higher than expected and for diabetes, deaths were 35% higher. Deaths involving liver diseases were 19% higher than expected for those aged 50–64, the same as for deaths at all ages.
So, yes, direct Covid deaths are quite low now. Deaths with Covid on the death certificate are about 30 per week in the last 6 months, which is rather lower than the preceeding 6 months. But more widely there is still a lot of excess death, both here and in most of our comparator countries on the continent. Countries with better managed health like Scandinavia have about half the excess death rate of Britain, but even they have on-going excess death rates. Some other comparator countries have excess death rates nearer to Britain.

As the article says, we can't really pin this on specific causes. Clearly the reduced efficiency of the health services is an issue in Britain, and in other countries. But it can also potentially include indirect and delayed Covid effects.

But perhaps it depends exactly what question you are asking, and exactly what you now think is expected in comparison to previous times.
Thanks Ivan, the Lancet article does though cover the first part of 2023, and there was a spike in excess mortality during the autumn and winter of 2022/2023.

I had a look at EuroMOMO (which monitors excess mortality in Europe). They have the UK within the normal range throughout most of 2023, with an uptick in the final week. So we'll have to see whether that is a trend or not (there could be reporting issues during a holiday week). But from May 2023 until the end of December it seems to be 'business as usual' in terms of overall mortality. Which is good, and in terms of Covid that is what should be happening in populations where almost everyone has immunity via vaccination or prior infection.
EUROMOMO.jpg
EUROMOMO.jpg (216.62 KiB) Viewed 1550 times

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Re: UK covid not over

Post by Herainestold » Thu Jan 11, 2024 8:48 pm

Why is Long Covid being ignored?
https://centralbylines.co.uk/news/healt ... g-ignored/

Healthy people get on with their lives, while the less healthy continue to suffer. Two million people in the UK are suffering from Long Covid, while nothing is being done to mitigate current covid surges, which will of course lead to more Long Covid sufferers in the future.
On the rare occasions where Covid is mentioned, it’s now talked about in the past tense. Few mention the fact that, even if the Covid variant is relatively mild, one in ten Covid cases turn into long Covid. The World Health Organization is very clear that the Covid pandemic is ongoing and Covid death figures sadly bear this out, but the United Kingdom Health Security Agency (UKHSA) does not permit the under-65s to get a Covid vaccine. Widespread Covid testing in the UK ended in April 2023 and 12 million fewer people than last year (the 50-65 age group) are not eligible for a Covid booster vaccine this autumn.
The current Covid strain achieving dominance is JN.1. JN.1 is a cause for concern due to the viral load of the strain. There is currently no public health information campaign warning about rising Covid hospitalisations or deaths. There are no government recommendations for the wearing of good-quality masks (FFP2 or FFP3) or the use of clean air. People were doing a load of socialising leading up to Christmas. What I fear is many more thousands of people will die of Covid, or become severely disabled like me. Information from the media is poor. James Gallagher, reporting for the BBC, quoted Professor Openshaw’s view that “with repeated infection we should build up natural immunity”.

This feels like an incredibly risky strategy. My body simply cannot take another Covid infection.
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Re: UK covid not over

Post by Opti » Fri Jan 12, 2024 9:17 am

Update: "Masks not required in Farmacias ... yet". That's exactly what I was told.
Time for a big fat one.

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Re: UK covid not over

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Jan 16, 2024 8:57 am

Back to the UK vaccination policy. I had a look at the advice published by the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI).

You can read it here. tl;dr is that they don't think its worth providing boosters for the whole population as the people at risk of being admitted to hospitals or ICUs, or at risk of dying, are predominantly people who are over 65 or have co-morbidities. There's a paragraph on Long Covid, but it basically states that much more needs to be known about the condition before recommendations on vaccination can be made.

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Re: UK covid not over

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Jan 16, 2024 9:02 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Jan 10, 2024 10:34 am
I had a look at EuroMOMO (which monitors excess mortality in Europe). They have the UK within the normal range throughout most of 2023, with an uptick in the final week. So we'll have to see whether that is a trend or not (there could be reporting issues during a holiday week). But from May 2023 until the end of December it seems to be 'business as usual' in terms of overall mortality. Which is good, and in terms of Covid that is what should be happening in populations where almost everyone has immunity via vaccination or prior infection.
It looks like more data has been reported to EuroMOMO as England is now back to within normal levels of mortality for the end of 2023, Similar in wales, Northern Ireland is lower, but there is still a spike in Scotland. So overall in the UK there doesn't seem to be excess mortality so far in the winter of 2023/2024, but people should keep an eye on the situation in Scotland.

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