Shoigu said 300 000. I have seen other figures quoted up to 2.5 million
The Invasion of Ukraine
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- After Pie
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Masking forever
Putin is a monster.
Russian socialism will rise again
Putin is a monster.
Russian socialism will rise again
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Maybe you could head over and massage his balls whilst they try to talk him down.Herainestold wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:52 amThe time is ripe to offer Putin an off ramp for this debacle. Maybe the Turks or India could act as an intermediary to get him to the table.
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Military analysts don't appear to be worried about 300,000. First, there is the question of if that number will actually be mustered. And even if it is, the second issue is that managing armies gets harder the larger they get. Given the Russians haven't well managed the current forces then even it's far from clear that the new troops will fare any better. It's more likely that the Russian numbers in the field wont change and the extra 300,000 allow for rotations.Herainestold wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:52 amPutin is like the cornered rat that he likes to talk about.
He will turn it up to 11, but which dial will he be twisting? 300 000 is a lot of troops and will make a material difference when they are finally deployed. It also means a lot of dead soldiers on both sides.
The time is ripe to offer Putin an off ramp for this debacle. Maybe the Turks or India could act as an intermediary to get him to the table.
I don't know there is an "off ramp" that would be agreeable to both sides. Zelensky doesn't seem big on appeasement. He's not going to settle while he's advancing.
I'm not sure what last push Ukraine can make before winter (assuming they don't surprise us all by continuing to make gains over winter - it's their back yard and they're the more motivated force, so not impossible) but I think another period of stalemate is likely and western planners need to look at what capability Ukraine needs to build now ready for spring 2023 - because to labour the point EACL has made repeatedly, we need to break out of this cycle of using lack of training as an excuse to not providing the equipment.
You can't polish a turd...
unless its Lion or Osterich poo... http://dsc.discovery.com/videos/mythbus ... -turd.html
unless its Lion or Osterich poo... http://dsc.discovery.com/videos/mythbus ... -turd.html
- El Pollo Diablo
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
The MoD's view
Possibly a tad more reliable than the forum communist.
Possibly a tad more reliable than the forum communist.
If truth is many-sided, mendacity is many-tongued
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Being the Forum Communist is one thing... it's being a Putin appeaser that sticks in the craw.El Pollo Diablo wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 9:05 amPossibly a tad more reliable than the forum communist.
You can't polish a turd...
unless its Lion or Osterich poo... http://dsc.discovery.com/videos/mythbus ... -turd.html
unless its Lion or Osterich poo... http://dsc.discovery.com/videos/mythbus ... -turd.html
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
There is an off ramp. It is called withdrawing his troops and giving up his claims to any territory seized from Ukraine including the Crimea. Return if Ukrainians kidnapped from those territories also and a treaty not to pull a similar stunt again.Herainestold wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:52 amThe time is ripe to offer Putin an off ramp for this debacle. Maybe the Turks or India could act as an intermediary to get him to the table.
The off ramp exists. He chooses not to take it. You want the war to stop, well Putin has the means.
It is his debacle. Ownership of his mess would be a good start.
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Very much this.temptar wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:31 amThere is an off ramp. It is called withdrawing his troops and giving up his claims to any territory seized from Ukraine including the Crimea. Return if Ukrainians kidnapped from those territories also and a treaty not to pull a similar stunt again.Herainestold wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:52 amThe time is ripe to offer Putin an off ramp for this debacle. Maybe the Turks or India could act as an intermediary to get him to the table.
The off ramp exists. He chooses not to take it. You want the war to stop, well Putin has the means.
It is his debacle. Ownership of his mess would be a good start.
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Not sure Putin has any out except feet first.
But also it looks as though that might be getting arranged.
Prigozhin is making moves that a strongman in a strong position could not ignore.
He also has an independent army.
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/statu ... xpDtOtOqhw
But also it looks as though that might be getting arranged.
Prigozhin is making moves that a strongman in a strong position could not ignore.
He also has an independent army.
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/statu ... xpDtOtOqhw
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Pretty worrying reports that men are just being forced into the Russian military regardless of military background. This is, of course, disproportionately happening in places like Buryatia and Yakutsk.
The breakup of the Russian Federation cannot come soon enough.
The breakup of the Russian Federation cannot come soon enough.
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Prigozhin would, on the face of it, be worse than Putin.jimbob wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:29 amNot sure Putin has any out except feet first.
But also it looks as though that might be getting arranged.
Prigozhin is making moves that a strongman in a strong position could not ignore.
He also has an independent army.
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/statu ... xpDtOtOqhw
On the other hand, he is not a likeable or liked person. And he wouldn't be able to rely on the enormous incumbency advantage Putin has in such an apathetic and disengaged population. Prigozhin going after Putin's position could lead to them both falling, and that would be richly deserved.
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Indeed. I make it two people with independent armies that have no nominal reporting to Putin. Prigozhin and Kadyrov. And neither presumably with much liking for each other.EACLucifer wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 1:14 pmPrigozhin would, on the face of it, be worse than Putin.jimbob wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:29 amNot sure Putin has any out except feet first.
But also it looks as though that might be getting arranged.
Prigozhin is making moves that a strongman in a strong position could not ignore.
He also has an independent army.
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/statu ... xpDtOtOqhw
On the other hand, he is not a likeable or liked person. And he wouldn't be able to rely on the enormous incumbency advantage Putin has in such an apathetic and disengaged population. Prigozhin going after Putin's position could lead to them both falling, and that would be richly deserved.
I don't know who the other players would be.
As you say, a possible breakup of the Russian empire.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Meanwhile it's difficult to emphasise just how much of a big deal this prisoner swap is in Ukraine. It wasn't just Ptashka and the British marines released, it looks like it was all the survivors of the Azovstal garrison, including Denys Prokopenko, Svyatoslav Palamar, Serhiy Volyna and Mykhailo Vershynin. Five of the most senior commanders freed will spend the rest of the war in Turkiye, and, as far as I understand, the rest are going home.
Putin had been planning to murder these people after sham trials. Clearly, his hand was forced here.
And in return the Russians got back Medvechuk and fifty four others. Perhaps those rumours about a general - or even more than one general - being captured at Izyum were true?
Putin had been planning to murder these people after sham trials. Clearly, his hand was forced here.
And in return the Russians got back Medvechuk and fifty four others. Perhaps those rumours about a general - or even more than one general - being captured at Izyum were true?
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Putin doesn't see that off ramp, or if he does he sees it as his own off ramp from the presidency and almoast guaranteed demise. I am afraid this is pushing him toward the armageddon option.temptar wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:31 amThere is an off ramp. It is called withdrawing his troops and giving up his claims to any territory seized from Ukraine including the Crimea. Return if Ukrainians kidnapped from those territories also and a treaty not to pull a similar stunt again.Herainestold wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:52 amThe time is ripe to offer Putin an off ramp for this debacle. Maybe the Turks or India could act as an intermediary to get him to the table.
The off ramp exists. He chooses not to take it. You want the war to stop, well Putin has the means.
It is his debacle. Ownership of his mess would be a good start.
Have to be more creative about finding a way out for him, otherwise the options are endless war or nuclear catastrophe.
Masking forever
Putin is a monster.
Russian socialism will rise again
Putin is a monster.
Russian socialism will rise again
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
And sending pissed-off generals who were captured, and (one hopes) treated well, could cause real problems for Putin.
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Are there any other options for replacing Putin other than a military hardliner? In a struggle between Putin and Prigozhin could a third party emerge?jimbob wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:29 amNot sure Putin has any out except feet first.
But also it looks as though that might be getting arranged.
Prigozhin is making moves that a strongman in a strong position could not ignore.
He also has an independent army.
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/statu ... xpDtOtOqhw
Somebody non oligarchic and and more attuned to Russia's socialist past. The people must be coming to the realization that Putin's kleptocratic autocracy isnt working for them.
Masking forever
Putin is a monster.
Russian socialism will rise again
Putin is a monster.
Russian socialism will rise again
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Russia's "socialist" past was every bit as genocidal and brutal, every bit as racist and imperialist, as it's kleptocratic present.Herainestold wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:31 pmAre there any other options for replacing Putin other than a military hardliner? In a struggle between Putin and Prigozhin could a third party emerge?jimbob wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:29 amNot sure Putin has any out except feet first.
But also it looks as though that might be getting arranged.
Prigozhin is making moves that a strongman in a strong position could not ignore.
He also has an independent army.
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/statu ... xpDtOtOqhw
Somebody non oligarchic and and more attuned to Russia's socialist past. The people must be coming to the realization that Putin's kleptocratic autocracy isnt working for them.
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
The options are not just endless war or nuclear catastrophe. The Soviet Union did not go nuclear when it collapsed. Nor are we under the slightest obligation to surrender so much as a square inch of Ukraine or a single Ukrainian to make the Khuylo feel better about himself.Herainestold wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:25 pmPutin doesn't see that off ramp, or if he does he sees it as his own off ramp from the presidency and almoast guaranteed demise. I am afraid this is pushing him toward the armageddon option.temptar wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:31 amThere is an off ramp. It is called withdrawing his troops and giving up his claims to any territory seized from Ukraine including the Crimea. Return if Ukrainians kidnapped from those territories also and a treaty not to pull a similar stunt again.Herainestold wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:52 amThe time is ripe to offer Putin an off ramp for this debacle. Maybe the Turks or India could act as an intermediary to get him to the table.
The off ramp exists. He chooses not to take it. You want the war to stop, well Putin has the means.
It is his debacle. Ownership of his mess would be a good start.
Have to be more creative about finding a way out for him, otherwise the options are endless war or nuclear catastrophe.
War until victory is not endless war.
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- After Pie
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
I don't see war until victory as a forseeable result given current trends. Victory over Russian forces in Ukraine might be quite quick if NATO were to implement a no fly zone and started bombing (what NATO does best). That would trigger a Russian nuclear response, without any doubt.EACLucifer wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:48 pmThe options are not just endless war or nuclear catastrophe. The Soviet Union did not go nuclear when it collapsed. Nor are we under the slightest obligation to surrender so much as a square inch of Ukraine or a single Ukrainian to make the Khuylo feel better about himself.Herainestold wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:25 pmPutin doesn't see that off ramp, or if he does he sees it as his own off ramp from the presidency and almoast guaranteed demise. I am afraid this is pushing him toward the armageddon option.temptar wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:31 am
There is an off ramp. It is called withdrawing his troops and giving up his claims to any territory seized from Ukraine including the Crimea. Return if Ukrainians kidnapped from those territories also and a treaty not to pull a similar stunt again.
The off ramp exists. He chooses not to take it. You want the war to stop, well Putin has the means.
It is his debacle. Ownership of his mess would be a good start.
Have to be more creative about finding a way out for him, otherwise the options are endless war or nuclear catastrophe.
War until victory is not endless war.
A prolonged ground war would favour Russia as they have millions they can conscript and send to the front. It also means an awful lot of dead Russians.
And dead Ukrainians. And a long and cold and miserable winter for Europe and the UK. Just to see a similar situation on the ground next year.
Masking forever
Putin is a monster.
Russian socialism will rise again
Putin is a monster.
Russian socialism will rise again
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
That didn't work out for the Russia leadership on at least one occasion historically. It's very different fighting a war for survival vs being sent into a neighbouring country on nebulous, changing reasons.Herainestold wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 3:03 pmI don't see war until victory as a forseeable result given current trends. Victory over Russian forces in Ukraine might be quite quick if NATO were to implement a no fly zone and started bombing (what NATO does best). That would trigger a Russian nuclear response, without any doubt.EACLucifer wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:48 pmThe options are not just endless war or nuclear catastrophe. The Soviet Union did not go nuclear when it collapsed. Nor are we under the slightest obligation to surrender so much as a square inch of Ukraine or a single Ukrainian to make the Khuylo feel better about himself.Herainestold wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:25 pm
Putin doesn't see that off ramp, or if he does he sees it as his own off ramp from the presidency and almoast guaranteed demise. I am afraid this is pushing him toward the armageddon option.
Have to be more creative about finding a way out for him, otherwise the options are endless war or nuclear catastrophe.
War until victory is not endless war.
A prolonged ground war would favour Russia as they have millions they can conscript and send to the front. It also means an awful lot of dead Russians.
And dead Ukrainians. And a long and cold and miserable winter for Europe and the UK. Just to see a similar situation on the ground next year.
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- After Pie
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Maybe Russia cant win out right, but they can hold onto large parts of ukraine, kill lots of people and make everybody miserable. That might be a win in their books.
Masking forever
Putin is a monster.
Russian socialism will rise again
Putin is a monster.
Russian socialism will rise again
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Evidence from Kharkiv suggests otherwise. Aside from the rapid liberation of territory, and enough captives to effect the prisoner exchange mentioned, Ukraine also captured enough tanks and IFVs to equip an entire mechanised brigade.Herainestold wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 3:27 pmMaybe Russia cant win out right, but they can hold onto large parts of ukraine, kill lots of people and make everybody miserable. That might be a win in their books.
War isn't just about numbers. It's about will. It's about cohesion. It's about command and communications. It's about weapons and resources.
And Ukraine comes out ahead on every one of those.
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
They have already failed. Now it is a question of admitting it. And the sooner they admit it, the fewer people wind up dead. If reduced numbers of war dead were what you truly wanted, you would be screaming for him to withdraw.Herainestold wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 3:27 pmMaybe Russia cant win out right, but they can hold onto large parts of ukraine, kill lots of people and make everybody miserable. That might be a win in their books.
But that is not the impression I am getting.
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
This is absolutely spot on.temptar wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 3:58 pmThey have already failed. Now it is a question of admitting it. And the sooner they admit it, the fewer people wind up dead. If reduced numbers of war dead were what you truly wanted, you would be screaming for him to withdraw.Herainestold wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 3:27 pmMaybe Russia cant win out right, but they can hold onto large parts of ukraine, kill lots of people and make everybody miserable. That might be a win in their books.
But that is not the impression I am getting.
And for those still worrying - for Russia to match Ukraine's numbers in the field, they would have to conscript nearly a million. How long do you think their economy can hold out under sanctions if they pull a million able bodied men out of the workforce? And that's before we look at the costs of feeding and arming and transporting them.
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Well yes, either Putin has to admit it, or someone willing to admit it has to force Putin out. I am not sure how likely the first is, unless Putin can spin a complete failure as somehow being his plan all along.temptar wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 3:58 pmThey have already failed. Now it is a question of admitting it...Herainestold wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 3:27 pmMaybe Russia cant win out right, but they can hold onto large parts of ukraine, kill lots of people and make everybody miserable. That might be a win in their books.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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