Trinucleus wrote: Fri Oct 21, 2022 1:03 pm
I guess it shows the members who the MPs want. The trouble will be if the two candidates are Boris and one other, the MPs will vote for the other, but the members will vote for Boris. That will be interesting
You don't think Boris would withdraw?!
That would be great.
BRING BACK BORIS AND DESTROY THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY
The funny thing about Johnson is that he's likely to be subject to a recall petition and I guess recall election.
So he's probably going to have say a 40% chance of being an MP in six months time.
Even he would have to consider resigning again if he was unable to attend Parliament due to suspension, even before he faced an election.
Woodchopper wrote: Fri Oct 21, 2022 9:07 am
Johnson’s constituency isn’t a particularly safe seat. In 2019 he got 52.6% and a majority of 7,210. So he’d be vulnerable to Tories staying at home in disgust and opposition voters coalescing around one candidate. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uxbridge_ ... stituency)
It is considered very likely he'd lose a by-election, particularly if it were triggered by a misconduct charge.
I would expect the Lib Dems and Greens would decline to field candidates, the main question is whether the local Labour Party is up to the job.
The last election ought to have been closer but the local party wasn't as strong as it could be (a good friend of mine was working for them at the time, she was rueful about a lost opportunity as pre-election they felt they had a genuine chance. The candidate could have been better for a start)
You just have to wonder how large the insanity wing of the Tories is. The public would prefer either Sunak or Mordaunt to Johnson, and so (overall) would MPs, but the greasy smegma balloon is likely to squeeze through to the membership vote, and every single one of them is completely batshit.
El Pollo Diablo wrote: Fri Oct 21, 2022 1:43 pm
You just have to wonder how large the insanity wing of the Tories is. The public would prefer either Sunak or Mordaunt to Johnson, and so (overall) would MPs, but the greasy smegma balloon is likely to squeeze through to the membership vote, and every single one of them is completely batshit.
Living where I do, I know quite a few Tory members and individually they are (mostly) lovely - mind you it's all church fete and village show type Toryism and that is seriously out of fashion in the Tory party as a whole.
Unfortunately as a group they are quite different.
Note that as of less than a week ago, over a third of Tory members would still prefer the economy-bombing mad f.cker about to depart from No 10, rather than someone who might make them pay a smidge more tax.
El Pollo Diablo wrote: Fri Oct 21, 2022 1:43 pm
You just have to wonder how large the insanity wing of the Tories is. The public would prefer either Sunak or Mordaunt to Johnson, and so (overall) would MPs, but the greasy smegma balloon is likely to squeeze through to the membership vote, and every single one of them is completely batshit.
Living where I do, I know quite a few Tory members and individually they are (mostly) lovely - mind you it's all church fete and village show type Toryism and that is seriously out of fashion in the Tory party as a whole.
Unfortunately as a group they are quite different.
Yeah, I know a few who either are or who I suspect are members, and they're really lovely one on one (mostly). But when it comes to politics they seem to relish the crazies.
That's Nadim Zahawi's outfit, right? The one with the built-in weighting for 'shy' Tories. It's looking very bad.
Trouble on the streets if they choose Johnson?
lpm wrote: Fri Oct 21, 2022 7:18 am
My assumption is that all Johnson’s nutters have announced already. They rushed to declare their love. Nadine is on the list of supporters three times. So his total will struggle to creep up from here.
I think this still holds.
The ❤️ We Love Boris ❤️ total is ticking up. But not surging.
Presumably Sunak is working behind the scenes, renewing bribes and orchestrating a surge.
lpm wrote: Fri Oct 21, 2022 7:18 am
My assumption is that all Johnson’s nutters have announced already. They rushed to declare their love. Nadine is on the list of supporters three times. So his total will struggle to creep up from here.
I think this still holds.
The We Love Boris total is ticking up. But not surging.
Presumably Sunak is working behind the scenes, renewing bribes and orchestrating a surge.
We need a fourth candidate, to get the hung party scenario...
Sunak and Merdeaunt will do a deal at some point. She'll pick either Home Secretary or Foreign Secretary and send her supporters his way. Sadly I don't think a hung party is mathematically possible given what those two already have.
There's going to be a by-election soon, because Chris Matheson of Labour turned out to be a sex pest and has quit as an MP - clicky
It's a fairly safe seat (majority of ~7,000, Labour have won it since '97), so maybe not that interesting, but I am excited to see how low the Tory vote will go.
lpm wrote: Fri Oct 21, 2022 7:18 am
My assumption is that all Johnson’s nutters have announced already. They rushed to declare their love. Nadine is on the list of supporters three times. So his total will struggle to creep up from here.
Not many of the red wall seats in Yorkshire are on any of the lists. I can see them backing Boris on the basis that keeping their seats is clearly in the National Interest
Last edited by Trinucleus on Fri Oct 21, 2022 7:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Not many of the red wall seats in Yorkshire are on any of the list. I can see them backing Boris on the basis that keeping their seats is clearly in the National Interest
El Pollo Diablo wrote: Fri Oct 21, 2022 1:43 pm
You just have to wonder how large the insanity wing of the Tories is. The public would prefer either Sunak or Mordaunt to Johnson, and so (overall) would MPs, but the greasy smegma balloon is likely to squeeze through to the membership vote, and every single one of them is completely batshit.
Living where I do, I know quite a few Tory members and individually they are (mostly) lovely - mind you it's all church fete and village show type Toryism and that is seriously out of fashion in the Tory party as a whole.
Unfortunately as a group they are quite different.
Ken!!!
This feels like the return of the great prophet Zarquon...
We Love Boris 