So I'd been planning to do a post about Crimea, supply lines, and long range weapons. Turns out a lot of people are talking about this (I've been out of the loop for a couple of days). So anyway, I'll save time by stealing
referencing their work.
I mentioned on the other thread the apparent provision of the Turkish TLRG 230 MLRS. I've not seen evidence for this myself, but Oryx is reporting it. This is often described as having a 20-70km range, but some sources place it at 150km.
Additionally, Ukraine have requested the GL-SDB (Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb - it uses the motor of the now out of favour M26 cluster rocket to launch an American Small Diameter Bomb - a glide bomb in standard service with America and others - out to around 150km. The Small Diameter Bomb is an excellent weapon, very accurate and carrying a warhead capable of both airburst and penetrating (ie bunker busting/demolition) attacks). The consortium producing the GL-SDB - which is not yet in service anywhere but has been tested and combines proven available components - announced that they were expecting contracts last month. There's no evidence of this weapon being in service with Ukraine, so please don't take this as more than speculation, but if
it were to be provided, it would have a major impact, as shown on this map from DefMon3.
Assuming that TLRG 230 has been supplied and the 150km figure is correct, this map also works for that system. As one can see, the whole of southern Ukraine, save for Crimea is in range, including all the routes in and out of Crimea. This includes Dzhankoi, which has been struck several times with something
M30/31 GMLRS rockets can't reach all the routes into and out of Crimea, but they can reach Armiansk, thus interdicting traffic across the Isthmus of Perekop, which is the main, and easiest routes into Crimea. WarTranslated had a clip recently with Russians talking about evacuating Armiansk - my presumption is that this means reducing their presence for fear of HIMARS, not fully abandoning southern Kherson oblast.
Meanwhile the Russians are apparently trying to improve the road along the Arabat spit, which separates the Sea of Azov from the lagoons to the west of the spit, right along the very eastern edge of Crimea. It's extremely exposed, but it does have the advantage that it doesn't rely on a bridge, like the route via Chonggar, and doesn't go within M30/31 range of Ukrainian-held right-bank Kherson like the route via the Isthmus of Perekop.
There was also a lot of chatter last night about explosions in Sevastopol, and talk of drones. More clarity might follow, or it might not.