I'm not certain on this one at all. On the one hand, an invasion through Belarus would be mad, and if Lukashenko's regime were to take part, it could result in their fall. In addition, the troop movements we've seen so far aren't particularly major.TopBadger wrote: ↑Wed Dec 14, 2022 6:01 pmIs Belarus about to enter the war? This article believes so...
https://worldcrunch.com/in-the-news/bel ... kraine-war
On the other, Russia has enough power of Lukashenko and enough troops in Belarus to force the issue, at least in the short term. And pontoon bridges popping up were one of the signs before the February escalation.
The answer, as always, is to put pressure on Lukashenko's regime. To make it clear that Belarusian territory will not be protected in any way from response, including potentially by NATO directly, and that arms will reach the Belarusian resistance, and Belarusians fighting for Ukraine - there's enough to form multiple battalions there - may be used on Belarusian soil too. It shouldn't be too specific - the point is to make it clear to Lukashenko and Putin that there will be a cost, the cost will be high to both the illegitimate Belarusian regime and Russia, and that they won't know in advance what it will be and cannot price it in, so to speak.