The Invasion of Ukraine

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EACLucifer
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Feb 11, 2023 5:56 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Feb 11, 2023 5:35 pm
Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner mercenary group, has said it could take two years for Russia to fully control the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in eastern Ukraine, two regions whose capture Moscow has stated as a key goal of the war.

In a video published on Friday with the Russian military blogger Semyon Pegov, reported by Reuters, Prigozhin said:

“As far as I understand, we need to close off the Donetsk and Luhansk republics and in principle that will suit everyone for now.”

“That could take one and a half to two years,” he said.

In September, Vladimir Putin formally annexed the Luhansk and Donetsk regions in Ukraine, along with Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, in defiance of international law and condemned by UN member states as illegal.

“If we have to get to the Dnipro, then it will take about three years,” Prigozhin added, referring to a larger area that would extend to the vast Dnipro River that runs roughly north to south, bisecting Ukraine.

Prigozhin does not speak for the Russian military but his comments provide a rare insight into Russian expectations of the conflict, from the head of a group at the centre of some of its fiercest fighting.
From the Guardian liveblog.

Looks like he’s trying to manage expectations.
Likely, but there's all kinds of internal politics going on too - reportedly Prigozhin, Kadyrov and Surovikin schemed to take over the MOD and were outmanoeuvred. It's also been reported that his Wagner Group can't recruit from prisons anymore, and that the MOD will be potentially taking over, but in addition volunteers in prisons are getting harder to find after people discovered the fate of the first tranches of them. Wagner's tactics secured Soledar and parts of eastern Bakhmut, and may end up securing Bakhmut, but at serious cost and it looks like Wagner Group is now heading towards being a spent force, and Prigozhin is out of favour for the moment.

The war certainly can go on for a long time, though, regardless of who has the upper hand, and it makes sense for Western nations to work with Ukraine to work out what shortcuts can be taken - in light of that news of the UK's plans to provide training and presumably Typhoons and, even more significantly, the potential for the relatively quick transfer of long range missiles is very welcome.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Herainestold » Sat Feb 11, 2023 9:47 pm

From an analysis of the Seymour Hersh story on America sabotaging Nordstream.
The problem, however, is how to sell this plan to the population. Biden’s State of the Union Address earlier this week hardly mentioned the central element of the administration’s policy, the war against Russia. This was, as the WSWS noted, due to the fact that the war is not popular and because plans are in the works for a major escalation. This will require, we explained, “the deployment of NATO forces to Ukraine, including American contractors and troops, but Biden is not yet ready to reveal it. More time is needed to ratchet up the ongoing media propaganda campaign and generate an even higher level of anti-Russia hysteria.”
In 1898, the explosion of the battleship USS Maine in Havana harbor, portrayed as an act of war, was used to launch the Spanish-American War and dispatch troops to Cuba and the Philippines. The 1964 Gulf of Tonkin incident that prompted direct US involvement in the Vietnam War was fabricated.
The bigger the escalation, the bigger the lie. Hersh’s revelations make it clear that the White House has it entirely within its power to stage a provocation, aimed at galvanizing public support for the war, whether by provoking a Russian response or manufacturing an “attack” out of whole cloth.
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2023/0 ... s-f10.html
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Martin Y » Sat Feb 11, 2023 9:52 pm

Well, that's a steaming pile. I shouldn't be surprised.

Newsflash: The US is not at War with Russia. Being at war with Russia is not a central policy element of Biden's administration.

Glad to clear that up for you.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Feb 11, 2023 9:57 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Sat Feb 11, 2023 9:47 pm
From an analysis of the Seymour Hersh story on America sabotaging Nordstream.
The problem, however, is how to sell this plan to the population. Biden’s State of the Union Address earlier this week hardly mentioned the central element of the administration’s policy, the war against Russia. This was, as the WSWS noted, due to the fact that the war is not popular and because plans are in the works for a major escalation. This will require, we explained, “the deployment of NATO forces to Ukraine, including American contractors and troops, but Biden is not yet ready to reveal it. More time is needed to ratchet up the ongoing media propaganda campaign and generate an even higher level of anti-Russia hysteria.”
In 1898, the explosion of the battleship USS Maine in Havana harbor, portrayed as an act of war, was used to launch the Spanish-American War and dispatch troops to Cuba and the Philippines. The 1964 Gulf of Tonkin incident that prompted direct US involvement in the Vietnam War was fabricated.
The bigger the escalation, the bigger the lie. Hersh’s revelations make it clear that the White House has it entirely within its power to stage a provocation, aimed at galvanizing public support for the war, whether by provoking a Russian response or manufacturing an “attack” out of whole cloth.
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2023/0 ... s-f10.html
Seymour Hersh is utterly full of sh.t, and his story has more holes in it than a Russian in the immediate vicinity of an M30 alternative warhead GMLRS rocket.

Notably, known movements of Norwegian ships directly contradict this story.

He presents Jens Stoltenberg as working with the US since the Vietnam war - which ended when he was fifteen.

He presents a single source as having top secret access to multiple different organisations in a way that is utterly implausible.

Other technical details also just don't add up.

And he's a conspiracy theorist f.ckwit c.nt whose work over the last decade is intellectually and morally bankrupt, only fit to snare in those who are intellectually or morally bankrupt, or in your case, both.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Herainestold » Sun Feb 12, 2023 12:25 am

Things happen behind the scenes that we don't know about.

There needs to be an investigation of the Nordstream sabotage carried about by an independent third party.
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Grumble » Sun Feb 12, 2023 12:57 am

Herainestold wrote:
Sun Feb 12, 2023 12:25 am
Things happen behind the scenes that we don't know about.

There needs to be an investigation of the Nordstream sabotage carried about by an independent third party.
Why? Has any party been publicly blamed?
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by dyqik » Sun Feb 12, 2023 1:03 am

Herainestold wrote:
Sun Feb 12, 2023 12:25 am
Things happen behind the scenes that we don't know about.

There needs to be an investigation of the Nordstream sabotage carried about by an independent third party.
Like the US, you mean?

Not an ally of Russia, not a recipient of Nordstrom gas, not a belligerent in the Ukraine war.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Herainestold » Sun Feb 12, 2023 8:48 pm

dyqik wrote:
Sun Feb 12, 2023 1:03 am
Herainestold wrote:
Sun Feb 12, 2023 12:25 am
Things happen behind the scenes that we don't know about.

There needs to be an investigation of the Nordstream sabotage carried about by an independent third party.
Like the US, you mean?

Not an ally of Russia, not a recipient of Nordstrom gas, not a belligerent in the Ukraine war.
I would suggest Chile.
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Sun Feb 12, 2023 8:52 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Sat Feb 11, 2023 9:57 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Sat Feb 11, 2023 9:47 pm
From an analysis of the Seymour Hersh story on America sabotaging Nordstream.
The problem, however, is how to sell this plan to the population. Biden’s State of the Union Address earlier this week hardly mentioned the central element of the administration’s policy, the war against Russia. This was, as the WSWS noted, due to the fact that the war is not popular and because plans are in the works for a major escalation. This will require, we explained, “the deployment of NATO forces to Ukraine, including American contractors and troops, but Biden is not yet ready to reveal it. More time is needed to ratchet up the ongoing media propaganda campaign and generate an even higher level of anti-Russia hysteria.”
In 1898, the explosion of the battleship USS Maine in Havana harbor, portrayed as an act of war, was used to launch the Spanish-American War and dispatch troops to Cuba and the Philippines. The 1964 Gulf of Tonkin incident that prompted direct US involvement in the Vietnam War was fabricated.
The bigger the escalation, the bigger the lie. Hersh’s revelations make it clear that the White House has it entirely within its power to stage a provocation, aimed at galvanizing public support for the war, whether by provoking a Russian response or manufacturing an “attack” out of whole cloth.
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2023/0 ... s-f10.html


Seymour Hersh is utterly full of sh.t, and his story has more holes in it than a Russian in the immediate vicinity of an M30 alternative warhead GMLRS rocket.

Notably, known movements of Norwegian ships directly contradict this story.

He presents Jens Stoltenberg as working with the US since the Vietnam war - which ended when he was fifteen.

He presents a single source as having top secret access to multiple different organisations in a way that is utterly implausible.

Other technical details also just don't add up.

And he's a conspiracy theorist f.ckwit c.nt whose work over the last decade is intellectually and morally bankrupt, only fit to snare in those who are intellectually or morally bankrupt, or in your case, both.
Yup, my reply to the end of that thread (well worth a read)

https://twitter.com/ParkinJim/status/16 ... 3HsjXGGajQ
Imagine the planning meeting.

"We'll pretend to be 🇷🇺 & to be realistic, do an operation that will help 🇷🇺 by increasing instabilty & we'll attack a pipe that 🇷🇺 couldn't use. Because the downside if we're discovered would be so massive, nobody would suspect us.

🤡
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Mon Feb 13, 2023 10:07 am

According to sources I trust, there's footage circulating of Wagner group murdering another of their own with a sledgehammer, so be careful - I'm avoiding it and so should you.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by dyqik » Mon Feb 13, 2023 11:10 am

Herainestold wrote:
Sun Feb 12, 2023 8:48 pm
dyqik wrote:
Sun Feb 12, 2023 1:03 am
Herainestold wrote:
Sun Feb 12, 2023 12:25 am
Things happen behind the scenes that we don't know about.

There needs to be an investigation of the Nordstream sabotage carried about by an independent third party.
Like the US, you mean?

Not an ally of Russia, not a recipient of Nordstrom gas, not a belligerent in the Ukraine war.
I would suggest Chile.
Knowing the recent political situation there, I wouldn't.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Mon Feb 13, 2023 1:32 pm

dyqik wrote:
Sun Feb 12, 2023 1:03 am
Herainestold wrote:
Sun Feb 12, 2023 12:25 am
Things happen behind the scenes that we don't know about.

There needs to be an investigation of the Nordstream sabotage carried about by an independent third party.
Like the US, you mean?

Not an ally of Russia, not a recipient of Nordstrom gas, not a belligerent in the Ukraine war.
How about Denmark and Sweden?

Oh that's what is happening.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Brightonian » Mon Feb 13, 2023 10:26 pm

France and some other countries are advising their citizens to leave Belarus: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/france-s ... 21991.html

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Martin Y » Tue Feb 14, 2023 11:48 am

Brightonian wrote:
Mon Feb 13, 2023 10:26 pm
France and some other countries are advising their citizens to leave Belarus: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/france-s ... 21991.html
Reuters seems to have quickly corrected their report suggesting there was a change in the advice. Now they say it was a reiteration plus an update on what border crossings were available, so that's a bit less alarming. Mind you it also says the US has advised its citizens to leave Russia immediately, mentioning the risk of arbitrary arrest or harassment by law enforcement.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Feb 14, 2023 1:33 pm

Moldovan airspace reportedly closed. Hard to see this not being in some way related to the Russian coup threat discussed by Ukraine and Moldova recently.

ETA: Open again, apparently to do with a reconnaissance drone

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Tue Feb 14, 2023 3:15 pm

Perun on escalation 55 minutes into a video

https://youtu.be/Qj9HD8MdAFs?t=3223

The most escalatory approach is to do nothing
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by TimW » Wed Feb 15, 2023 10:18 am

Ben Wallace wrote:We now estimate 97% of the Russian army, the whole Russian army, is in Ukraine.
I don't know what % I would have guessed, but I would definitely have been way off.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Feb 15, 2023 10:39 am

TimW wrote:
Wed Feb 15, 2023 10:18 am
Ben Wallace wrote:We now estimate 97% of the Russian army, the whole Russian army, is in Ukraine.
I don't know what % I would have guessed, but I would definitely have been way off.
It's hard to form any sort of meaningful assessment as the size - and quality - of the Russian army have changed substantially since the war due to mobilisation. The size of the Russian army within Ukraine at the moment is roughly the size of their pre-war army by some estimates, and that's likely what Wallace is referring to, but this doesn't mean they are more capable than they were this time last year - repeating replacing large portions of a unit with mobiks results in a unit that is less competent, less coherent, and a unit with lower morale.

This is exarcebated by Russia's use of the old Soviet approach to losses, where formations are ground down to the point of destruction and replaced with fresh units. That means those that do get experience fighting end up dying before the unit can collectively learn from that experience. Pulling units from the line earlier and rotating units more freequently is a far better approach, and it allows the unit to develop and learn, and for replacements to learn from those who've already seen combat.

That said, Russia absolutely has pulled huge amount of troops from other frontiers, including the borders with Norway (NATO) and Finland (going to be NATO). That shows that Putin and his apologists are full of sh.t when claiming to be opposing a NATO threat to Russia, and it also indicates that they aren't planning on escalating against NATO - something policymakers should take into account when considering the provision of military materiel to Ukraine.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by headshot » Thu Feb 16, 2023 3:28 pm

TimW wrote:
Wed Feb 15, 2023 10:18 am
Ben Wallace wrote:We now estimate 97% of the Russian army, the whole Russian army, is in Ukraine.
I don't know what % I would have guessed, but I would definitely have been way off.
I guess the other 3% have formed a protective ring around The Kremlin.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Feb 16, 2023 3:33 pm

The 97% isn't going to be of every soldier and piece of equipment. Troops will be needed in Russia for training, logistics etc They will also need some to guard critical installations and borders, and some are stationed abroad (eg Transdnestria, Syria).

The 97% could be an assessment of what is available once all the other roles are accounted for.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by TimW » Fri Feb 17, 2023 7:27 pm

The finance director of the Western Military District has been fallen out of a window.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 83686.html

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Grumble » Fri Feb 17, 2023 10:53 pm

TimW wrote:
Fri Feb 17, 2023 7:27 pm
The finance director of the Western Military District has been fallen out of a window.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 83686.html
Not impossible that someone who must be responsible for overseeing an awful amount of corruption might actually commit suicide. Equally possible that a corrupter might want them dead.
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Feb 18, 2023 9:40 pm

TimW wrote:
Fri Feb 17, 2023 7:27 pm
The finance director of the Western Military District has been fallen out of a window.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 83686.html
Some people get the Prague treatment, others get rewarded for failure. Muradov has been promoted to the rank of Colonel-General*, despite being the one in overall charge at Vuhledar, where the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade reportedly suffered well over 50% casualties** and a number of other units were mauled, achieving no real territorial gains and failing to inflict significant casualties.


*Roughly equal to Lieutenant General in a western army.

**some reports put KIA alone at over 50%

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Feb 18, 2023 11:25 pm

Nine years ago today thugs working for Russian catspaw Viktor Yanukovych fired upon protesters, killing dozens and, over the next couple of days, precipitating the Revolution of Dignity.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Formerly AvP » Sun Feb 19, 2023 8:57 am

Good article describing how Russia and Ukraine are fighting different wars
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/ ... erent-wars

Includes the line
If an army needs to move firepower over treacherous terrain, then what it needs looks very much like a tank.
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