The Invasion of Ukraine

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EACLucifer
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Feb 24, 2023 7:57 pm

Loads of talk about Transnistria right now. It's probably just Russian bluster for the most part, but worth keeping an eye on. Moldovan government officials have warned of Russian plans to potentially carry out a coup or seize an airport - but especially in the latter case the question is immdiately "and do what with it, precisely?", as it would be surrounded by Ukrainian and Romanian (NATO) airspace. Russia has fifteen hundred or so troops occupying Transnistria in eastern Moldova, and they'd be no match for any Ukrainian or Romanian force, and could quite possibly struggle with Moldova's admittedly very limited military.

Ukrainian troops in Moldova is not a reason to panic or assume anything untoward is happening, as there is an agreement by which Ukraine has access to the parts of the Odesa-Reni highway that cross Moldovan territory.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Feb 24, 2023 8:15 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Fri Feb 24, 2023 7:57 pm
Loads of talk about Transnistria right now. It's probably just Russian bluster for the most part, but worth keeping an eye on. Moldovan government officials have warned of Russian plans to potentially carry out a coup or seize an airport - but especially in the latter case the question is immdiately "and do what with it, precisely?", as it would be surrounded by Ukrainian and Romanian (NATO) airspace. Russia has fifteen hundred or so troops occupying Transnistria in eastern Moldova, and they'd be no match for any Ukrainian or Romanian force, and could quite possibly struggle with Moldova's admittedly very limited military.

Ukrainian troops in Moldova is not a reason to panic or assume anything untoward is happening, as there is an agreement by which Ukraine has access to the parts of the Odesa-Reni highway that cross Moldovan territory.
As far as I remember there are a few hundred Russian officers who are rotated in and out. But the rest of the circa 1500 ‘Russian’ troops are locals from Transdnestria. It’s unlikely that they want to start a war and probably can’t be trusted.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Feb 24, 2023 8:52 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Feb 24, 2023 8:15 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Fri Feb 24, 2023 7:57 pm
Loads of talk about Transnistria right now. It's probably just Russian bluster for the most part, but worth keeping an eye on. Moldovan government officials have warned of Russian plans to potentially carry out a coup or seize an airport - but especially in the latter case the question is immdiately "and do what with it, precisely?", as it would be surrounded by Ukrainian and Romanian (NATO) airspace. Russia has fifteen hundred or so troops occupying Transnistria in eastern Moldova, and they'd be no match for any Ukrainian or Romanian force, and could quite possibly struggle with Moldova's admittedly very limited military.

Ukrainian troops in Moldova is not a reason to panic or assume anything untoward is happening, as there is an agreement by which Ukraine has access to the parts of the Odesa-Reni highway that cross Moldovan territory.
As far as I remember there are a few hundred Russian officers who are rotated in and out. But the rest of the circa 1500 ‘Russian’ troops are locals from Transdnestria. It’s unlikely that they want to start a war and probably can’t be trusted.
Yes, I think Russia are very poorly placed to try anything. I can't remember the exact phrasing, but Moldova recently talked about their sovereignty over the region, and Moldova do ultimately have the right to remove them, on their own or with the aid of allies. I sincerely hope that the ongoing occupation can be dealt with, but at the same time I don't want a long-frozen - and very frozen at that - conflict to turn bl..dy.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Formerly AvP » Sat Feb 25, 2023 4:23 pm

Good long oral history article on the events before the invasion, up to the first few days. Warning: may contain traces of Truss.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/ ... y-00083757
Was Allo V Psycho, but when my laptop died, I lost all the info on it...

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Feb 25, 2023 5:10 pm

Formerly AvP wrote:
Sat Feb 25, 2023 4:23 pm
Good long oral history article on the events before the invasion, up to the first few days. Warning: may contain traces of Truss.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/ ... y-00083757
Jake Sullivan: I was determined not to have regrets if the worst came to pass — I was determined to ensure that we had done everything we possibly could think up to first try to head this off
Evidently "everything" doesn't include maintaining an ambiguous position so the Russians can't make secure assumptions about your response, leaving ships within the Black Sea so as not to signal that you won't respond, or supplying more than light weaponry despite the Ukrainian government's requests for it, which would have strengthened the Ukrainian military but also been a clear signal of western commitment in advance of the escalation in February. Putin miscalculated, but when you look at how most western countries were behaving in the run up - the US not even providing Stingers let alone the Patriots that were requested, Germany talking about avoiding sanctions on Nord Stream 2 - it's easy to see why.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Feb 25, 2023 5:33 pm

China is considering sending Russia lethal military aid in the form of artillery shells as President Vladimir Putin’s army rapidly depletes its supply of ammunition a year into his invasion of Ukraine, U.S. officials said, a prospect that has alarmed those in the Biden administration who believe Beijing has the ability to transform the war’s trajectory.

[…]

The aid being contemplated consists of 122-millimeter and 152-millimeter rounds, which Russia has in dwindling supply as it prosecutes a war largely fought with artillery, the officials said.

The disclosure, first reported Friday by the Wall Street Journal, follows a public warning from Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who said last weekend that Beijing is seriously considering a provision of lethal aid. It comes, too, as Western nations grow increasingly concerned that Chinese involvement in the conflict could prove a significant setback for Ukraine and its backers.

[…]

The desperate hunt is driven by the massive amount of shelling undertaken by Ukrainian and Russian forces every day — a point emphasized by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg this month.

“The war in Ukraine is consuming an enormous amount of munitions and depleting allied stockpiles,” Stoltenberg said at a meeting of defense ministers in Brussels. “The current rate of Ukraine’s ammunition expenditure is many times higher than our current rate of production.”

Russia is running low on munitions, U.S. officials said, but China, with its vaunted production capacity for long-range artillery, rocket launchers, surface-to-surface missiles and drones, could make up for the shortage.

[…]

That was a focal point during the meeting last week between Blinken and China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference.
Blinken warned Wang that there would be “consequences if China provides material support to Russia or assistance with systemic sanctions evasion,” said State Department spokesman Ned Price.
Beijing so far has not provided direct military support to Russia, but U.S. officials have accused Chinese state companies of providing nonlethal assistance in recent weeks.
“We have indications that China may be considering the provision of lethal capabilities to Russia,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said Friday, without elaborating on the specific type. “We haven’t seen them make that decision. We haven’t seen them move in that direction. We’ve been clear both privately and publicly about our concerns with respect to that potential outcome. China should not want to become tangibly involved in that manner.”

Asked about a report in the German outlet Der Spiegel that China was negotiating over the shipment of pilotless attack drones to Russia, Kirby said “I have nothing for you on that.”

On Friday, Beijing called for a comprehensive cease-fire in conjunction with a 12-point peace plan it put forward. Blinken and Stoltenberg both reacted skeptically to the proposal — saying no solution should allow Russia to “rest” and “rearm.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reacted more positively, saying he did not view it as a concrete plan but a productive gesture.

“It’s an important signal that they are preparing to take part in this theme,” he said during a news conference in Kyiv.

[…]

He emphasized, however, that Ukraine’s principal concern is that Beijing not arm Moscow.

“I very much want to believe that China will not deliver weapons to Russia, and for me this is very important,” he said. “This is point number one.”

[…]

Even as it warned China, the administration launched new charges against Iran, which has provided Russia with lethal pilotless drones used to target Ukrainian infrastructure.
“Today, we have additional information that Iranian support for Russia’s war is expanding,” Kirby told reporters Friday. In November, he said, “Iran shipped artillery and tank rounds to Russia for use in Ukraine.”

[…]

In return, he said, Russia has been offering “unprecedented defense cooperation, including on missiles, electronics and air defense. We believe that Russia might provide Iran with fighter jets.” Iran, he said, is seeking “billions of dollars worth of military equipment from Russia,” including purchase of attack helicopters and radars.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national ... y-ukraine/

Chinese active support for Russia would be significant and probably wouldn’t be limited to the supply of artillery ammunition. If they’ve decided to accept the diplomatic and economic consequences in order to shore up their ally then they’ll probably go further.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Feb 25, 2023 5:40 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Feb 25, 2023 5:33 pm
China is considering sending Russia lethal military aid in the form of artillery shells as President Vladimir Putin’s army rapidly depletes its supply of ammunition a year into his invasion of Ukraine, U.S. officials said, a prospect that has alarmed those in the Biden administration who believe Beijing has the ability to transform the war’s trajectory.

[…]

The aid being contemplated consists of 122-millimeter and 152-millimeter rounds, which Russia has in dwindling supply as it prosecutes a war largely fought with artillery, the officials said.

The disclosure, first reported Friday by the Wall Street Journal, follows a public warning from Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who said last weekend that Beijing is seriously considering a provision of lethal aid. It comes, too, as Western nations grow increasingly concerned that Chinese involvement in the conflict could prove a significant setback for Ukraine and its backers.

[…]

The desperate hunt is driven by the massive amount of shelling undertaken by Ukrainian and Russian forces every day — a point emphasized by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg this month.

“The war in Ukraine is consuming an enormous amount of munitions and depleting allied stockpiles,” Stoltenberg said at a meeting of defense ministers in Brussels. “The current rate of Ukraine’s ammunition expenditure is many times higher than our current rate of production.”

Russia is running low on munitions, U.S. officials said, but China, with its vaunted production capacity for long-range artillery, rocket launchers, surface-to-surface missiles and drones, could make up for the shortage.

[…]

That was a focal point during the meeting last week between Blinken and China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference.
Blinken warned Wang that there would be “consequences if China provides material support to Russia or assistance with systemic sanctions evasion,” said State Department spokesman Ned Price.
Beijing so far has not provided direct military support to Russia, but U.S. officials have accused Chinese state companies of providing nonlethal assistance in recent weeks.
“We have indications that China may be considering the provision of lethal capabilities to Russia,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said Friday, without elaborating on the specific type. “We haven’t seen them make that decision. We haven’t seen them move in that direction. We’ve been clear both privately and publicly about our concerns with respect to that potential outcome. China should not want to become tangibly involved in that manner.”

Asked about a report in the German outlet Der Spiegel that China was negotiating over the shipment of pilotless attack drones to Russia, Kirby said “I have nothing for you on that.”

On Friday, Beijing called for a comprehensive cease-fire in conjunction with a 12-point peace plan it put forward. Blinken and Stoltenberg both reacted skeptically to the proposal — saying no solution should allow Russia to “rest” and “rearm.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reacted more positively, saying he did not view it as a concrete plan but a productive gesture.

“It’s an important signal that they are preparing to take part in this theme,” he said during a news conference in Kyiv.

[…]

He emphasized, however, that Ukraine’s principal concern is that Beijing not arm Moscow.

“I very much want to believe that China will not deliver weapons to Russia, and for me this is very important,” he said. “This is point number one.”

[…]

Even as it warned China, the administration launched new charges against Iran, which has provided Russia with lethal pilotless drones used to target Ukrainian infrastructure.
“Today, we have additional information that Iranian support for Russia’s war is expanding,” Kirby told reporters Friday. In November, he said, “Iran shipped artillery and tank rounds to Russia for use in Ukraine.”

[…]

In return, he said, Russia has been offering “unprecedented defense cooperation, including on missiles, electronics and air defense. We believe that Russia might provide Iran with fighter jets.” Iran, he said, is seeking “billions of dollars worth of military equipment from Russia,” including purchase of attack helicopters and radars.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national ... y-ukraine/

Chinese active support for Russia would be significant and probably wouldn’t be limited to the supply of artillery ammunition. If they’ve decided to accept the diplomatic and economic consequences in order to shore up their ally then they’ll probably go further.
Fascist China needs access to our markets - the costs need to be made clear immediately. Likewise I doubt they'd be too happy if we sent, say, Tomahawks, to Taiwan, but there's very little they can do about it. If they are determined to plunge us into another cold war, we need to fight back at once. Sanctions should be on the table, and not just on the individual firms potentially supplying arms.

I'd also add that basically nobody wants to be seen to be supplying arms to Russia, so it looks like diplomatic pressure is working, and may work here.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Feb 25, 2023 5:45 pm

Economic sanctions have already been threatened. China faces a choice between its economy and its alliance with Russia. Unfortunately militarism tends to be more attractive than the economic benefits of peaceful relations.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Feb 25, 2023 5:47 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Feb 25, 2023 5:45 pm
Economic sanctions have already been threatened. China faces a choice between its economy and its alliance with Russia. Unfortunately militarism tends to be more attractive than the economic benefits of peaceful relations.
Especially to reactionary fascist dictators like Xi Xinping.

Backing up economic sanctions with a very clear statement of intent re: protection of Taiwan, Japan and all the other nations Beijing's preposterous maritime claims threaten would be a good move.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Sun Feb 26, 2023 3:32 pm

On the other thread, I described Bakhmut as the corpse of a city. This is why. This is what the Russians have done to this city, which has held out against assault since last summer, but likely won't hold out much longer.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Sun Feb 26, 2023 11:22 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Sun Feb 26, 2023 3:32 pm
On the other thread, I described Bakhmut as the corpse of a city. This is why. This is what the Russians have done to this city, which has held out against assault since last summer, but likely won't hold out much longer.
The exhumation has been completed at Izium.

It's grim.

https://twitter.com/Lyla_lilas/status/1 ... 6163742720
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Mon Feb 27, 2023 12:13 am

jimbob wrote:
Sun Feb 26, 2023 11:22 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Sun Feb 26, 2023 3:32 pm
On the other thread, I described Bakhmut as the corpse of a city. This is why. This is what the Russians have done to this city, which has held out against assault since last summer, but likely won't hold out much longer.
The exhumation has been completed at Izium.

It's grim.

https://twitter.com/Lyla_lilas/status/1 ... 6163742720
Slightly under one in a hundred killed, going by the pre-war population. Or to put it another way, Izium's the size of Lancaster, and there's over four hundred killed. The evidence of torture and mutilation indicates these weren't ordinary war dead. And remember that Izium is not one of the places that fell immediately - people knew what was coming and a lot of them evacuated. The proportion of those that remained that were murdered is rather higher than just under one in a hundred.

And Izium's just another town. Everywhere that's been occupied and liberated leaves the same awful evidence. Not just Bucha, not just Izium, everywhere. The complete defeat of the Russian invasion and occupation is of the utmost moral priority and there is no excuse for not doing everything - and I really do mean everything - possible to bring that about.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Mon Feb 27, 2023 7:12 pm

Nine years ago to the day Russian forces invaded Crimea, seizing key sites and holding the Crimean Rada at gunpoint to enable their annexation, and act of aggression the inadequate response to which laid the foundations for the current invasion and war.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Mar 01, 2023 6:50 am

Ukrainian report on how Western dual use components are being imported by Russia: https://nako.org.ua/en/news/new-report- ... war-crimes

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Mar 02, 2023 9:28 am

Update on the repairs to the Kerch Bridge https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/ ... 56000?s=20

tl;dr Road bridge now repaired. Major work ongoing on the rail bridge.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Thu Mar 02, 2023 9:31 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Thu Mar 02, 2023 9:28 am
Update on the repairs to the Kerch Bridge https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/ ... 56000?s=20

tl;dr Road bridge now repaired. Major work ongoing on the rail bridge.
Now is the time to supply longer range missiles
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Mar 02, 2023 10:02 am

Russian channels going berserk over claims Ukraine crossed border of Bryansk oblast and claims of hostage taking.

Remember to never trust any official Russian channel, nor the vatniks that align themselves with them.

It is worth noting that there were reports of Russians near the Chernihiv border (pretty near where the accusations are focussed on) without Russian markings and in uniforms resembling Ukrainian ones more than a week ago - =AZV6n2z3zEd9Bj5reNKWrexaccEpbE7TRY_39ikuF61K6k82iZ_LIdcTzbUHUb3_AFAPT8hOzqO2FaLycrG2g1puxJBzAY9RskXksZ0JogA9sZ8e1bTKFqCQc_-RDN3-G1JF7gN7oeCjNlYWWBDTsfmpMSmAGn1zlLN1b4MCGyLbXXeSuANwZ7DyrRi7bpxJu6FUfcqOJgvGMMHtgvwPqoQX&__tn__=%2CO%2CP-R]this post is from 22-02-2023 - Edit to add I can't get the formatting to work, but this post was from 22-02-2023

Google translate comes up with the following
Posted more than a week ago wrote:UPD: To prevent distortion of information:

This is a warning about POSSIBLE provocations by the enemy, and not about any actions that have taken place.

The occupiers are preparing possible provocations for the anniversary of the full-scale offensive, most likely, the goal is to accuse the Ukrainian defenders of violating territorial integrity. This is evidenced by intelligence data, which recorded the movement of columns of military equipment in the area of the border with the Chernihiv region without identification marks and manpower dressed in a pixel, similar to the uniform of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

We note that the Defense Forces of the Severshchyna keep the situation under control and, unlike the enemy's troops, have never resorted to provocations and do not have such a goal. Each soldier follows the generally accepted rules of warfare, not encroaching on other people's territories, but exclusively protecting his native land from an insolent and insidious enemy.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Mar 02, 2023 10:12 am

jimbob wrote:
Thu Mar 02, 2023 9:31 am
Woodchopper wrote:
Thu Mar 02, 2023 9:28 am
Update on the repairs to the Kerch Bridge https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/ ... 56000?s=20

tl;dr Road bridge now repaired. Major work ongoing on the rail bridge.
Now is the time to supply longer range missiles
The best time to supply longer range missiles was last autumn, as a deterrent. The second best time was April, when it was clear Ukraine could hold off the Russians, I'm not going to say the third best time is now, but the earlier they are sent, the more good they do.

I believe work is underway regarding either Harpoon variants with land attack capability or Storm Shadow. To be honest, any long range, low radar profile accurate cruise missile would be a massive boon, be it KEPD-350, SCALP-EG/Storm Shadow or the American JASSM. Strangling Crimea's lines of supply - and by extension the lines of supply to southern mainland Ukraine - costs the same in terms of munitions provided whenever its done, but the sooner its done the sooner it starts working, and the more the pressure is taken off Ukraine's armed forces.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Mar 02, 2023 10:33 am

Pegov's involved re: Bryansk oblast, which makes me think the chances of it being legit are about the same as my chances of winning the hundred metres at the next Olympics, especially as there's no visual evidence of anything yet. Let's hope the f.cker steps on another mine sooner rather than later.

It's worth remembering that the Russians used multiple staged events in the run up to the escalation, some of which used audio nicked from youtube videos, real corpses that had already been autopsied and denunciations filmed before the actual events.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Thu Mar 02, 2023 10:36 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Thu Mar 02, 2023 10:12 am
jimbob wrote:
Thu Mar 02, 2023 9:31 am
Woodchopper wrote:
Thu Mar 02, 2023 9:28 am
Update on the repairs to the Kerch Bridge https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/ ... 56000?s=20

tl;dr Road bridge now repaired. Major work ongoing on the rail bridge.
Now is the time to supply longer range missiles
The best time to supply longer range missiles was last autumn, as a deterrent. The second best time was April, when it was clear Ukraine could hold off the Russians, I'm not going to say the third best time is now, but the earlier they are sent, the more good they do.

I believe work is underway regarding either Harpoon variants with land attack capability or Storm Shadow. To be honest, any long range, low radar profile accurate cruise missile would be a massive boon, be it KEPD-350, SCALP-EG/Storm Shadow or the American JASSM. Strangling Crimea's lines of supply - and by extension the lines of supply to southern mainland Ukraine - costs the same in terms of munitions provided whenever its done, but the sooner its done the sooner it starts working, and the more the pressure is taken off Ukraine's armed forces.
Absolutely.

The fewer lives are lost, and the less likely China is to side with a loser. Or to attack Taiwan.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Mar 02, 2023 10:48 am

Putin to chair security council meeting tomorrow, per TASS. Far too many propaganda claims and far too quick a response for this to be organic, especially given previous observations re: Russians in Ukrainian-looking gear. Russian claim is now that it was "Russian Volunteer Corps", with just a very short video of a few people posing with a flag - no reason to believe it's legit at present.

ETA: Russian media is making an enormous deal over these allegations, these could well be to do with an attempt to provoke greater support for additional mobilisation given Russia's extremely severe personnel losses lately, or could be to try and undermine Ukrainian access to Western weapons.

ETA2: First ETA refers to motive for degree of Russian response to something that either didn't happen, or was a tiny cross-border raid by irregulars.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Mar 02, 2023 11:45 am

Looks like a small cross border selfie expedition by Ukraine-supporting anti-Kremlin Russians. I realise my updates on this are confused - it's a very confusing situation.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Sun Mar 05, 2023 4:53 am


Two Ukrainian pilots are currently in the United States undergoing an assessment to determine how long it could take to train them to fly attack aircraft, including F-16 fighter jets, according to two congressional officials and a senior U.S. official.

The Ukrainians’ skills are being evaluated on simulators at a U.S. military base in Tucson, Arizona, the officials said, and they may be joined by more of their fellow pilots soon.

U.S. authorities have approved bringing up to 10 more Ukrainian pilots to the U.S. for further assessment as early as this month, the officials said.

The arrival of the first two pilots marks the first time Ukrainian pilots have traveled to the U.S. to have their skills evaluated by American military trainers. Officials said the effort has twin goals: to improve the pilots’ skills and evaluate how long a proper training program could take.

[…]

He also said the U.S. has “not started training on F-16s” and that the delivery timeline for F-16s is “essentially the same” as the training timeline, about 18 months.

“So you don’t actually save yourself time by starting the training early in our assessment,” said Kahl, who is the under secretary of defense for policy. “And since we haven’t made the decision to provide F-16’s and neither have our allies and partners, it doesn’t make sense to start to train them on a system they may never get.”

Other U.S. defense officials have said the training could be shortened to six to nine months, depending on the pilots previous training and knowledge of fighter aircraft.

Ukrainian officials have told the U.S. and other allies that they have fewer than 20 pilots ready to travel to the U.S. to train on F-16s and another 30 or so who could be trained in the near future, according to American and Western officials.

[…]

In his appearance before the House Armed Services Committee, Kahl said that Ukrainian officials have asked the U.S. for as many as 128 aircraft — a mix of F-15s, F-16s, and F-18s.

Kahl said the U.S. Air Force estimates that Ukraine will ultimately need between 50 and 80 F-16s to replace its current air force. If the U.S. provides newly built aircraft, it will take three to six years to deliver them to Ukraine, with a slightly shorter timeline of 18 to 24 months if the U.S. sends refurbished older models F-16s.

The cost to send the F-16s would be as much as $11 billion, depending on the model and number delivered.

“That would consume a huge portion of the remaining security assistance that we have for this fiscal year,” Kahl said.

[…]

“I was at the Munich Security Conference, met with a lot of the high-ranking military officials, including our supreme allied commander,” McCaul said on ABC News' "This Week."

“They’re all in favor of us putting not only F-16s in but longer-range artillery, to take out the Iranian drones in Crimea.”

But with the long timeline for delivery and training of F-16s, the huge price tag and the large Russian Air Force already gathering aircraft across the border from Ukraine, some US military leaders recommend focusing on weapons and equipment that Ukraine can use immediately like air defense systems.

“Even in our most earnest effort it will take months to get Ukrainians flying F-16s. They are beating the Russian Air Force with air defenses, why would we change tactics now?” a U.S. defense official said.

[…]

“It’s just not the way to fight the Russian Air Force,” the official added. “Even if we spend all the money and send every aircraft we can, it’s just a drop in the bucket compared to the Russian Air Force.”
https://www.nbcnews.com/investigations/ ... -rcna73426

Seems to be a useful summary of some of the trade offs

How many pilots can Ukraine afford to be away from the battlefield while training?

What will Ukraine not get if instead the US allocates a large part of its aid to providing F-16s?

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EACLucifer
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Sun Mar 05, 2023 8:02 am

Marinka. This was a town. People lived there.

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Woodchopper
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Sun Mar 05, 2023 10:00 am

Report that a Russian shipload of military equipment is heading through the Bosporus to Russia.

If it is full of military equipment it's likely it's from the Russian deployment in Syria. Possibly suggestive of a reduction in Russian presence there due to shortages in Ukraine. Speculation online that it could be Iranian arms. But it’s much easier to transport those via the Caspian.

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/20 ... black-sea/

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