Blyatskrieg

[EACLucifer]

The Oryx team posted this rather handy graph.

As far as I'm aware, some of the big jumps in numbers are due to uneven counting and clearing backlog as well as sudden events where many are lost.

Losses of other equipment are similarly one sided, and one would expect a significant disproportion in personnel losses as well.

[EACLucifer]

Several strikes deep into Russia last night, including attacks on fuel infrastructure at Tuapse south of Novorossisk and likewise near Moscow(!). Reports, not yet confirmed, of further strikes tonight. Improvised munitions seem to be the method - the strike near Moscow failed, but it looks like it was with a long-endurance drone, while the Tuapse strike was carried out by something with a jet engine, probably an old Tupolev recon drone conversion. Tonight's reported attack is at Yeysk, just across the Taganrog Gulf from Mariupol.

Deeper and deeper, as General Budanov would say.

Not Russia, this time, but Crimea - Bakhchisaray and other locations deep behind the front lines hit. One presumes it must be some sort of drone-based system, as neither GL-SDB or Vilkha-M have the range. Only evidence so far, other than reports, is audio, so unclear what was struck or if air defence successfully engaged.

[Woodchopper]

The Oryx team posted this rather handy graph.

As far as I'm aware, some of the big jumps in numbers are due to uneven counting and clearing backlog as well as sudden events where many are lost.

Losses of other equipment are similarly one sided, and one would expect a significant disproportion in personnel losses as well.

That is remarkably similar ratio to the 'rule of thumb' 1-3 which is said to apply to attackers and defenders. The ratio is force size, but that's because the attackers are going to suffer more losses.

[EACLucifer]

The Oryx team posted this rather handy graph.

As far as I'm aware, some of the big jumps in numbers are due to uneven counting and clearing backlog as well as sudden events where many are lost.

Losses of other equipment are similarly one sided, and one would expect a significant disproportion in personnel losses as well.

That is remarkably similar ratio to the 'rule of thumb' 1-3 which is said to apply to attackers and defenders. The ratio is force size, but that's because the attackers are going to suffer more losses.

It is, but one of the steepest points on the line for the Russians is the time around the Kharkiv and Kherson offensives, when Ukraine was attacking, so there's a bit more to it. The thing about those attacks though was that they forced the Russians to abandon territory due to partial encirclement or cut supply lines. So in general, yes, attacking is more costly, especially in urban terrain*, but if an attack is well enough planned to break through the lines it can enable the attacking force to manoeuvre and either encircle the defender or force them to react to the threat of encirclement, and in that situation the defender takes more serious losses**.

*Which is one reason Ukraine's tried to keep defensive urban battles going in places like Severodonetsk and Bakhmut.

**Which is the other reason Ukraine's tried to keep defensive urban battles going in places like Severodonetsk and Bakhmut - it's not so much about holding the terrain as denying the Russians the chance to manoeuvre and (hopefully) exhausting them to the point they can't manoeuvre.

[EACLucifer]

Ukrainian sources claim about a hundred and thirty tanks and BMPs destroyed near Vuhledar. The claim is certainly plausible - Here's a thread showing about a hundred of them.

[jimbob]

https://twitter.com/auto_glam/status/16 ... 91690?s=20

Claimed video of the drone attack on the Mainstay AWACS aircraft

[jimbob]

After video of someone who seems pretty unharmed after his body armour stopped a large round. 30mm?

https://twitter.com/Igor_from_Kyiv_/sta ... 75681?s=20

[Woodchopper]

After video of someone who seems pretty unharmed after his body armour stopped a large round. 30mm?

https://twitter.com/Igor_from_Kyiv_/sta ... 75681?s=20

Must have been a ricochet or at extreme range, or both. If not the round would have been deformed or destroyed if it had been stopped by the armour.

[Woodchopper]

After video of someone who seems pretty unharmed after his body armour stopped a large round. 30mm?

https://twitter.com/Igor_from_Kyiv_/sta ... 75681?s=20

I'm suspicious about the cut at that point. But I can wait for an assessment by the experts.

Ignore, I got mixed up.

[Woodchopper]

Bellingcat's Aric Toler on the Bryansk incident: https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/16 ... 36896?s=20

[jimbob]

After video of someone who seems pretty unharmed after his body armour stopped a large round. 30mm?

https://twitter.com/Igor_from_Kyiv_/sta ... 75681?s=20

Must have been a ricochet or at extreme range, or both. If not the round would have been deformed or destroyed if it had been stopped by the armour.

I think it might have gone through the walls of a trench at an angle beforehand

[Woodchopper]

After video of someone who seems pretty unharmed after his body armour stopped a large round. 30mm?

https://twitter.com/Igor_from_Kyiv_/sta ... 75681?s=20

Must have been a ricochet or at extreme range, or both. If not the round would have been deformed or destroyed if it had been stopped by the armour.

I think it might have gone through the walls of a trench at an angle beforehand

Yes, something like that.

[Woodchopper]

there seem to be a lot of strikes on occupied parts of Ukraine right now, and Russian air defence has gone berserk.

Russian sources are panicking about this being GL-SDBs, though without evidence. The strikes were mostly within artillery or HIMARS/M270 GMLRS range, the real standout being strikes round Mariupol, which is a bit over 80km from the nearest Ukrainian positions. On a hunch, I checked the weather for Donetsk oblast, and the wind is northerly, if that was still the case last night GMLRS rockets would have had a following wind, and we've seen GMLRS strikes that sort of distance behind the lines, too. If it were the arrival of GL-SDB, I'd have expected some of the targets in the 100-150km range zone to be hit so as to achieve surprise against things like Russian helicopter bases, command posts and logistics chokepoints.

There's also footage emerged of a lot of some kind of MLRS rocket fired at night, the launchers out of sight, and the rockets quickly climbing into the clouds. The sheer number and rate of fire leads me to think these were BM-21 Grads. There's also footage from near one of the places targetted where the sound is just a constant drum-roll of explosions, again pointing to things the the unguided 122mm Grad rockets. Mixing a few of the much more valuable and capable M30/31 guided rockets into a bombardment with BM-21s would have given Russian air defences a very difficult night in the occupied territories.

Suggestion here that the strikes on Mariupol were by Ukrainian guided rocket artillery with a range of 110km.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/u ... nched-ones

[bjn]

Apparently the drones used in the attack on the Russian AWAC equivalent held as few hundred grammes of TNT and hundred of metal balls. Used correctly they could do a lot of damage to sensitive avionics without setting the plane on fire. So the Russians get another airframe to raid for spares.

https://mobile.twitter.com/DominicVLaro ... 5371755524

[EACLucifer]

Apparently the drones used in the attack on the Russian AWAC equivalent held as few hundred grammes of TNT and hundred of metal balls. Used correctly they could do a lot of damage to sensitive avionics without setting the plane on fire. So the Russians get another airframe to raid for spares.

https://mobile.twitter.com/DominicVLaro ... 5371755524

Well drones could certainly get to the radome! Likely a recon flight shown rather than the actual attack. I think there's a mark on the radome in the "after" image I posted earlier, but the sort of damage from that sort of warhead wouldn't show up that well on satellite imagery, but would likely leave the radar inside the radome unusable. The A-50 has now flown off, possibly for repairs or possibly just to keep it safe from followups. It should also be a wakeup call to people doing security at airbases and airports worldwide.

[EACLucifer]

there seem to be a lot of strikes on occupied parts of Ukraine right now, and Russian air defence has gone berserk.

Russian sources are panicking about this being GL-SDBs, though without evidence. The strikes were mostly within artillery or HIMARS/M270 GMLRS range, the real standout being strikes round Mariupol, which is a bit over 80km from the nearest Ukrainian positions. On a hunch, I checked the weather for Donetsk oblast, and the wind is northerly, if that was still the case last night GMLRS rockets would have had a following wind, and we've seen GMLRS strikes that sort of distance behind the lines, too. If it were the arrival of GL-SDB, I'd have expected some of the targets in the 100-150km range zone to be hit so as to achieve surprise against things like Russian helicopter bases, command posts and logistics chokepoints.

There's also footage emerged of a lot of some kind of MLRS rocket fired at night, the launchers out of sight, and the rockets quickly climbing into the clouds. The sheer number and rate of fire leads me to think these were BM-21 Grads. There's also footage from near one of the places targetted where the sound is just a constant drum-roll of explosions, again pointing to things the the unguided 122mm Grad rockets. Mixing a few of the much more valuable and capable M30/31 guided rockets into a bombardment with BM-21s would have given Russian air defences a very difficult night in the occupied territories.

Suggestion here that the strikes on Mariupol were by Ukrainian guided rocket artillery with a range of 110km.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/u ... nched-ones

Yes, I've mentioned Vilkha-M seems to be back in use. It's a very welcome development. The thing I think a lot of people don't realise is that GMLRS isn't new, and western GMLRS is far from unique, in face M-30 and M-31, the rockets used with HIMARS and M-270, are actually quite modest in their range and warhead size, Vilkha-M, with ~130km and 170kg, is closer to the norm. M-30 and M-31 are likely more accurate, though, and due to be replaced by ER-GMLRS, which will be superior in every way. If Ukraine can produce them in decent quantity - potentially outsourcing part of the production to NATO countries - or replicate the feat with Hrim-2 or Neptune, it will be a huge advance in their long range firepower.

[EACLucifer]

Claims of explosion in Kolomna, near Moscow. One report mentioned a whistling sound first. Pictures of a glow on the horizon, some audio out there of a bang. Russian claim is MiGs going supersonic explain the bang, which could be true, but a) why would MiGs need to go supersonic at night near Moscow?* and b) that doesn't explain the glow.

Various weapons were designed in Kolomna, including MANPADS and SRBMs.

LiveUAMap has a thread on the event which includes media of the bang and the glow

*Not saying it never happens for mundane reasons, it's just not common, I remember once getting a hell of a shock when a pair of Typhoons went over to intercept a nonresponsive plane, just a bang that felt like it would shake the windows in and two streaks of fire across the night sky. Later discovered what had happened, plane was lost, Typhoons guided it in to land.

[EACLucifer]

Belarusian Hajun Project/Motolko Help reported two drones, one on the radome, one further forward. Well here's footage of that second drone. It doesn't seem like this attack was immensely damaging, though the same source is reporting that the aircraft had to be patched out and flown out at relatively low altitude for repairs - one presumes because of cabin pressure issues - and that there is damage to the main radar too, though how they got the information or if it is just speculation is hard to tell.

[EACLucifer]

Looks like the Ukrainian withdrawal from Bakhmut has started - possibly even finished. Obviously these aren't things that get published as they happen, when word came that the order had been given to evacuate troops from Lysychansk last summer, they were already out. The key is to hold the new lines and deny Russia a breakout, and to leave as few people and as little materiel behind, in that order of importance, and materiel that can't be recovered should ideally be exploded.

ETA: I'd seen mention of blowing bridges but hadn't included it due to lack of evidence, now I've seen evidence - Ukrainian troops blew the railway bridge after retreating.

[EACLucifer]

Belarusian Hajun Project/Motolko Help reported two drones, one on the radome, one further forward. Well here's footage of that second drone. It doesn't seem like this attack was immensely damaging, though the same source is reporting that the aircraft had to be patched out and flown out at relatively low altitude for repairs - one presumes because of cabin pressure issues - and that there is damage to the main radar too, though how they got the information or if it is just speculation is hard to tell.

Courtesy of Special Kherson Cat, here's a diagram of the A-50 - the drone in the above video landed directly on the Satellite Communication Link. The attackers evidently knew their way round an A-50.

[Woodchopper]

Looks like the Ukrainian withdrawal from Bakhmut has started - possibly even finished. Obviously these aren't things that get published as they happen, when word came that the order had been given to evacuate troops from Lysychansk last summer, they were already out. The key is to hold the new lines and deny Russia a breakout, and to leave as few people and as little materiel behind, in that order of importance, and materiel that can't be recovered should ideally be exploded.

ETA: I'd seen mention of blowing bridges but hadn't included it due to lack of evidence, now I've seen evidence - Ukrainian troops blew the railway bridge after retreating.

Yes, a bridge was blown on the last paved road west out of Bakhmut: https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/statu ... 10913?s=20
Still dirt tracks through the fields.

[EACLucifer]

Looks like the Ukrainian withdrawal from Bakhmut has started - possibly even finished. Obviously these aren't things that get published as they happen, when word came that the order had been given to evacuate troops from Lysychansk last summer, they were already out. The key is to hold the new lines and deny Russia a breakout, and to leave as few people and as little materiel behind, in that order of importance, and materiel that can't be recovered should ideally be exploded.

ETA: I'd seen mention of blowing bridges but hadn't included it due to lack of evidence, now I've seen evidence - Ukrainian troops blew the railway bridge after retreating.

Yes, a bridge was blown on the last paved road west out of Bakhmut: https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/statu ... 10913?s=20
Still dirt tracks through the fields.

Yes. I hadn't included that one as I've only seen footage of it after it was destroyed, not what destroyed it. The Russians might well try to destroy bridges to hinder Ukrainian supplies/evacuation, and did so during the battle of Severodonetsk, but the rail bridge in central Bakhmut was clearly blown with demo charges, which confirms Ukrainian intentions at least regarding positions east of the Bakhmutka river.

[Woodchopper]

Belarusian Hajun Project/Motolko Help reported two drones, one on the radome, one further forward. Well here's footage of that second drone. It doesn't seem like this attack was immensely damaging, though the same source is reporting that the aircraft had to be patched out and flown out at relatively low altitude for repairs - one presumes because of cabin pressure issues - and that there is damage to the main radar too, though how they got the information or if it is just speculation is hard to tell.

The damage to the plane may not be so extensive. But Russia may now feel the need to add to the guards on the airfields where aircraft are based (or face the prospect of this being a regular event). To do that troops and equipment would need to be diverted from where they are needed elsewhere. It doesn't look like they can rely upon the Byelorussians for protection.

[Woodchopper]

Looks like the Ukrainian withdrawal from Bakhmut has started - possibly even finished. Obviously these aren't things that get published as they happen, when word came that the order had been given to evacuate troops from Lysychansk last summer, they were already out. The key is to hold the new lines and deny Russia a breakout, and to leave as few people and as little materiel behind, in that order of importance, and materiel that can't be recovered should ideally be exploded.

ETA: I'd seen mention of blowing bridges but hadn't included it due to lack of evidence, now I've seen evidence - Ukrainian troops blew the railway bridge after retreating.

Yes, a bridge was blown on the last paved road west out of Bakhmut: https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/statu ... 10913?s=20
Still dirt tracks through the fields.

Yes. I hadn't included that one as I've only seen footage of it after it was destroyed, not what destroyed it. The Russians might well try to destroy bridges to hinder Ukrainian supplies/evacuation, and did so during the battle of Severodonetsk, but the rail bridge in central Bakhmut was clearly blown with demo charges, which confirms Ukrainian intentions at least regarding positions east of the Bakhmutka river.

Yes, it could have blown by the Russians. But I think that the Ukrainians are more likely. Assuming a withdrawal is taking place they'd probably want to hinder any Russian attempt to rapidly follow the withdrawing troops.

ETA Ukraine would have blown it after it had already withdrawan its heavy vehicles that needed the road.

[EACLucifer]

Yes. I hadn't included that one as I've only seen footage of it after it was destroyed, not what destroyed it. The Russians might well try to destroy bridges to hinder Ukrainian supplies/evacuation, and did so during the battle of Severodonetsk, but the rail bridge in central Bakhmut was clearly blown with demo charges, which confirms Ukrainian intentions at least regarding positions east of the Bakhmutka river.

Yes, it could have blown by the Russians. But I think that the Ukrainians are more likely. Assuming a withdrawal is taking place they'd probably want to hinder any Russian attempt to rapidly follow the withdrawing troops.

ETA Ukraine would have blown it after it had already withdrawan its heavy vehicles that needed the road.

I'm also of the view that the road bridge was demolished after/during retreat as well, I just couldn't be certain, where the rail bridge over the Bakhmutka river was much me definitely a demolition and not an attack from something like a Tyulpan.