The Invasion of Ukraine

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Sun Mar 26, 2023 12:08 pm

More evidence of Russians using teargas grenades against Ukrainian defensive positions, which is a war crime.
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Mar 28, 2023 9:05 pm

Looks like Ukraine's going to be resuming energy exports to the EU. Russia's campaign against their electricity systems has utterly failed, despite the expenditure of significant quantities of expensive and finite munitions. It also lead to a substantial increase in military aid to Ukraine, with things like Patriot and SAMP-T missile systems soon to arrive in the country.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Mar 29, 2023 6:46 am

Possible big transfer of ammunition from Bulgaria.
https://www.euractiv.com/section/politi ... mpact-war/

More interesting in the article is Bulgarian politics which seem quite complicated at the moment.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Fri Mar 31, 2023 10:04 am

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/ ... ret-police
A consortium of media outlets have published a bombshell investigation about Russia’s cyber-capabilities, based on a rare leak of documents. The files come from NTC Vulkan, a cybersecurity firm in Moscow that doubles as a contractor to Russian military and intelligence agencies.
Russia’s army and its secret police did not just hate each other; they viewed the world through different lenses. Putin’s era brought about new rules and a new mentality, as the Vulkan files make clear.
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Martin Y » Fri Mar 31, 2023 10:51 am

I'm not sure how bombshell-ish i ought to find that Guardian article.

It's interesting if the army and FSB are learning to cooperate on cyber warfare capabilities. That may be the most important point it raises. It's been a comfort to think that every branch of the Russian state is enemy and bitter rival to every other, like the Japanese army and navy were in WW2. But it's less than a surprise that Russia has and uses these capabilities, and it's a fairly obvious inference that they'll employ software engineers to create the systems they need rather than, say, army conscripts.

The article does go on to warn the diaspora of young Russian software engineers will contain those who've worked on military systems but that's presumably true of engineers from any country. Yes they might still be in the employ of their country's security services but I would have fondly imagined that possibility would already cross the mind of Western employers or security agencies.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Sun Apr 02, 2023 7:41 pm

Career violent criminal and Kremlin propagandist Vladlen Tatarsky died after contracting a sudden case of exploding. A truly vile individual, he advocated for attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure in the hope that it would cripple the health system and thus cause the deaths of Ukrainians. He also called for Ukrainians to be killed en masse and Ukraine to be looted. He was also quite closely tied to Wagner Group and Prigozhin. Prior to working for the Kremlin, he was a bank robber.

Reportedly he was given a gift of a statuette into which had been placed a significant quantity of TNT.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Martin Y » Sun Apr 02, 2023 8:54 pm

Makes you wonder who Tatarsky upset; the method suggests an insider rather than anything the Ukrainians might have done. I gather the attack happened at an event in a restaurant which used to belong to Prigozyn and you can't help wondering if that has any significance.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Mon Apr 03, 2023 6:28 am

Martin Y wrote:
Sun Apr 02, 2023 8:54 pm
Makes you wonder who Tatarsky upset; the method suggests an insider rather than anything the Ukrainians might have done. I gather the attack happened at an event in a restaurant which used to belong to Prigozyn and you can't help wondering if that has any significance.
The journalist, John Sweeney who now lives in Kyiv, suspects Putin.

Possibly a message to Prigozhin as well.
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Herainestold » Mon Apr 03, 2023 7:42 pm

Christo Grozev thinks its likely Ukrainian linked.

https://news.sky.com/video/ukraine-war- ... r-12848676
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Martin Y » Tue Apr 04, 2023 10:09 am

I'm surprised by that view. Not the who or why, but the how.

The Ukrainians have motive and I assume they would kill him if an opportunity presented itself, but the idea seems far fetched that they managed to gain access to conceal a bomb inside a trophy they somehow knew the target was to be presented with.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Apr 05, 2023 7:57 am

Latest US military aid package.
The weapons aid package was comprised of $2.1 billion from Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) funding which allows President Joe Biden's administration to buy weapons from industry rather than from U.S. weapons stocks.

The USAI package included additional munitions for NASAMS air defenses that the U.S. and allies have given to Kyiv, precision aerial munitions, Soviet-era GRAD rockets, anti-tank rockets, armored bridging systems used in assaults, and 105 fuel trailers, along with funding for training and maintenance.

The remaining $500 million came from Presidential Drawdown Authority funds, which allows the president to take from current U.S. stocks in an emergency.

That segment of the package included a half a dozen types of munitions, including munitions for Patriot air defense systems, tank munitions, and High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS).
https://www.reuters.com/world/us-pledge ... 023-04-04/

The different budget lines maybe significant. As far as I remember the balance has previously been in favour of drawdowns used to supply material from existing stocks.

Buying from industry will probably help mitigate the widespread production problems. But supplies may well take longer to arrive in Ukraine. For Ukraine perhaps a long term gain with a short term cost.

In addition the switch may signal that the US isn’t willing to see its stocks of some munitions decrease much further. It has stocks but it’s not going to commit them all to one war.

Finally, a package with a longer term focus is another indication that the long awaited Ukrainian offensive is coming soon.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Gfamily » Wed Apr 05, 2023 8:15 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Apr 05, 2023 7:57 am
Latest US military aid package.
The weapons aid package was comprised of $2.1 billion from Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) funding which allows President Joe Biden's administration to buy weapons from industry rather than from U.S. weapons stocks.
...
Finally, a package with a longer term focus is another indication that the long awaited Ukrainian offensive is coming soon.
The cynic inside me makes me think the defence industry must be hoping for only limited success, and a long offensive to come.
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Apr 05, 2023 9:13 am

Gfamily wrote:
Wed Apr 05, 2023 8:15 am
Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Apr 05, 2023 7:57 am
Latest US military aid package.
The weapons aid package was comprised of $2.1 billion from Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) funding which allows President Joe Biden's administration to buy weapons from industry rather than from U.S. weapons stocks.
...
Finally, a package with a longer term focus is another indication that the long awaited Ukrainian offensive is coming soon.
The cynic inside me makes me think the defence industry must be hoping for only limited success, and a long offensive to come.
Yes, some companies will make higher profits.

There will be winners and losers though. Over the past few years we've seen the US shift from focusing upon counter-insurgency and rogue states to wars against developed states armed forces. Good news for the producers of hitech weapons, probably fewer opportunities for the private security contractors who provided a lot of the support functions in Iraq and Afghanistan.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Apr 06, 2023 9:14 am

Kyiv is willing to discuss the future of Crimea with Moscow if its forces reach the border of the Russian-occupied peninsula, a top adviser to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has told the Financial Times.

The comments by Andriy Sybiha, deputy head of Zelenskyy’s office, are the most explicit statement of Ukraine’s interest in negotiations since it cut off peace talks with the Kremlin last April.

“If we will succeed in achieving our strategic goals on the battlefield and when we will be on the administrative border with Crimea, we are ready to open [a] diplomatic page to discuss this issue,” Sybiha said, referring to Kyiv’s long-planned counteroffensive.

He added: “It doesn’t mean that we exclude the way of liberation [of Crimea] by our army.”

[…]

To date Zelenskyy has ruled out peace talks until Russian forces leave all of Ukraine, including Crimea.

Sybiha is a veteran diplomat who focuses on foreign policy in the president’s office and has been at Zelenskyy’s side at key moments in the war.

[…]

He said the president and his aides were now talking specifically about Crimea, as Ukraine’s army gets closer to launching its counteroffensive to regain territory.

[…]

In the early days of the war, Ukraine was willing to negotiate with Moscow over the future of Crimea rather than insisting on regaining it militarily at all costs.

[…]

Ukraine’s president has repeatedly made clear his ultimate goal of bringing all his country’s land, including Crimea, under Kyiv’s control.

But in May last year he indicated Ukraine could consider a peace deal if Russian forces returned to positions in eastern Ukraine predating last year’s invasion and suggested the issue of Crimea would be resolved later through diplomacy.

https://www.ft.com/content/d68b4007-4dd ... eee2662d6e

Sybiha was very likely to have been authorised by Zelenskyy to say that. If he wasn’t he’ll probably be sacked by now.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Apr 06, 2023 4:19 pm

Two weeks after the EU announced a historic agreement to give Ukraine piles of ammunition, the bloc is still sorting out the legal specifics of how to actually implement it.

The squabble has stalled a first-of-its-kind plan to jointly buy ammunition for Ukraine. EU ambassadors met Wednesday to discuss the issue but were unable to make significant progress on one of the key issues, according to several diplomats with knowledge of the negotiations.

The bone of contention remains whether these arms contracts will go exclusively to EU companies (and how to legally define them), or also be open to outside manufacturers. France is pushing for the money to stay within EU borders, several diplomats said. Greece and Cyprus have also backed Paris — a move some of the diplomats said is linked to their desire to avoid contracts going to Turkish manufacturers.

Two diplomats added that the European Commission, the EU’s executive, also needs to do more work to map the capacity of EU companies before a final deal can be reached.

With the issue stalled, ambassadors on Wednesday instead focused on finalizing a less-controversial part of the agreement: A deal to donate large swaths of ammunition to Kyiv. The diplomats, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive talks, said ambassadors completed a deal on the donation plan during the meeting, adding that the legal text is expected to be officially published next week.
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-plan ... kyy-putin/

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Apr 07, 2023 6:52 am

Anon on 4Chan posted classified documents to win an argument about Ukrainian and Russian casualties: https://twitter.com/arictoler/status/16 ... 1zY-PW4R9w

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Imrael » Fri Apr 07, 2023 9:07 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Apr 07, 2023 6:52 am
Anon on 4Chan posted classified documents to win an argument about Ukrainian and Russian casualties: https://twitter.com/arictoler/status/16 ... 1zY-PW4R9w
Apparently passing through a minecraft server at one point, which at least makes a change from the War Thunder forums.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Apr 08, 2023 8:15 am

Mark Galeotti on the calculations around Crimea: https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/kyi ... ld-crimea/

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by TopBadger » Sat Apr 08, 2023 12:24 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Apr 08, 2023 8:15 am
Mark Galeotti on the calculations around Crimea: https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/kyi ... ld-crimea/
Logistically cutting off Crimea is certainly the best chance for Ukraine to reclaim it, and with the fewest casualties. I suspect the bulk of the new tanks and APC's will drive south from Zaphorzhzhia to cut the land bridge.
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Apr 08, 2023 7:07 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Apr 07, 2023 6:52 am
Anon on 4Chan posted classified documents to win an argument about Ukrainian and Russian casualties: https://twitter.com/arictoler/status/16 ... 1zY-PW4R9w
Looks like it was part of something bigger:
Tranche of purported U.S. and allied military secrets leaked online in possible major intelligence breach
https://news.yahoo.com/tranche-of-purpo ... 37286.html

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Sun Apr 09, 2023 5:44 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Apr 08, 2023 7:07 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Apr 07, 2023 6:52 am
Anon on 4Chan posted classified documents to win an argument about Ukrainian and Russian casualties: https://twitter.com/arictoler/status/16 ... 1zY-PW4R9w
Looks like it was part of something bigger:
Tranche of purported U.S. and allied military secrets leaked online in possible major intelligence breach
https://news.yahoo.com/tranche-of-purpo ... 37286.html
Thread on what looks like a major intelligence leak: https://twitter.com/ridt/status/1645048 ... 1zY-PW4R9w

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Mon Apr 10, 2023 2:08 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Sun Apr 09, 2023 5:44 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Apr 08, 2023 7:07 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Apr 07, 2023 6:52 am
Anon on 4Chan posted classified documents to win an argument about Ukrainian and Russian casualties: https://twitter.com/arictoler/status/16 ... 1zY-PW4R9w
Looks like it was part of something bigger:
Tranche of purported U.S. and allied military secrets leaked online in possible major intelligence breach
https://news.yahoo.com/tranche-of-purpo ... 37286.html
Thread on what looks like a major intelligence leak: https://twitter.com/ridt/status/1645048 ... 1zY-PW4R9w
Gets bigger day by day
One of the most significant leaks of highly classified U.S. documents in recent history began among a small group of posters on a messaging channel that trafficked in memes, jokes and racist talk.

Sometime in January, seemingly unnoticed by the outside world, an anonymous member of a group numbering just over a dozen began to post files—many labeled as top secret—providing details about the war in Ukraine, intercepted communications about U.S. allies, such as Israel and South Korea, and details of American penetration of Russian military plans, among other topics.

The documents, which appear to have numbered in the hundreds, stayed among the members of the tiny group on the Discord messaging platform until early March, when another user reposted several dozen of them to another group with a larger audience. From there, at least 10 files migrated to a much bigger community focused on the Minecraft computer game.

On Wednesday, with the U.S. government apparently still unaware, a Russian propaganda account on Telegram posted a crudely doctored version of one of the documents, alongside a few unedited ones.

[...]

The intelligence leak is shaping up to be one of the most damaging in decades, officials said. The disclosure complicates Ukraine’s spring offensive. It will likely inhibit the readiness of foreign allies to share sensitive information with the U.S. government. And it potentially exposes America’s intelligence sources within Russia and other hostile nations.

[...]

In total, just over 50 documents with Secret and Top Secret classification markings have surfaced so far, and have been viewed by the Journal and a variety of independent intelligence analysts. A critical question is who had access, and when, to the hundreds of others that were posted in the original group between January and March, and how significant are the secrets that these files contain.

[...]

Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, said in a Telegram post that it was unlikely that Russia was behind the original intelligence breach.

“If you have an operating channel to obtain intelligence from the Pentagon, you don’t burn it for a one-day publicity drive,” he wrote. By publicizing the leak, he added, Russia aimed to distract attention from Ukraine’s preparations for the offensive, and to “sow certain doubts and mutual suspicions” between Kyiv and its partners.

[...]

The most damaging files, security analysts say, are the roundups of vetted intelligence material compiled in the Central Intelligence Agency’s operations center intelligence update. They include information on conversations that the U.S. had intercepted within allied governments, such as communications of the leaders of Israel’s Mossad intelligence service and discussions among members of South Korea’s national security council on whether to sell ammunition that could end up in Ukraine.

Even more sensitive is the information that appears derived from the U.S. penetration of the Russian government, such as details on how a Russian hacker shared screenshots with the FSB security service on accessing Canada’s natural-gas infrastructure, internal Russian ministry of defense deliberations on supplying ammunition to the Wagner paramilitary group, and plans by Russian military intelligence to foment an anti-Western and anti-Ukrainian campaign in Africa.

Aric Toler, head of research and training at the Bellingcat investigative consortium, which has carried out several probes of Russian intelligence operations, said that he has been in touch with three original members of the Discord group.

The group’s members saw hundreds of classified files before the channel was wiped clean, he said. Most members are based in the U.S. The identity of the original poster remains unknown.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-detail ... lewebshare

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Mon Apr 10, 2023 3:00 pm

One of the most frustrating things about this leak is that the US could quite possibly have managed to spin this as a load of bollocks with a bit of real intel mixed in, but instead all but confirmed it. That allows Russia to plan round things like Ukraine's available SAM stocks.

That part of the leak, though, does demonstrate why it's so important to get Ukrianian pilots into western airframes. Frankly, after exposing such crucial information, the USA f.cking well owes Ukraine aircraft, to make up for Russia being able to plan around their SAM availability.

There was a strain of commentator that scoffed at the idea of supplying aircraft because cost/training time/SAM availability/inability to SEAD Russia's air defences enough to operate over their sides of the lines, and they always rather pissed me off as while some of their arguments were reasonable, some weren't, and they were insisting they knew better than the Ukrainian military themselves. Well current SAMs are running short, and the appalling delay on providing replacements like the Patriot - which was first requested in November 2021 and dismissed as impossible until many months of the escalation only for the Ukrainians to exceed the USA's frankly bigoted low expectations and quickly master the system - means western replacements aren't going to be enough. The sooner training is begun, the sooner its finished. Finnish pilots managed to convert in nine months at peacetime speed which included English classes which wouldn't be needed for the several dozen Ukrainian pilots who already have English to the required level, and the Ukrainian airforce estimated six months based on simulator training of their existing pilots. When Austin is saying eighteen months, he is either offensively underestimating Ukrainian pilots, or lying to protect craven politicians. It is rather reminiscent of the Spanish Leopard 2s which were all in such terrible condition they'd never run again etc etc etc and then weren't as soon as the political environment favoured sending them.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by bolo » Mon Apr 10, 2023 3:50 pm

There is a village in Ukraine, a few miles west of Bakhmut, called Stinky.

There is also a village called Stinky in Poltava oblast.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Mon Apr 10, 2023 6:13 pm

Of course it won't take very long to sort out F-16 training if Reznikov's proposal of inviting international pilots with pre-existing knowledge of the plane to join the Ukrainian military. Previously some such pilots have expressed a willingness to do this if possible.

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