Blyatskrieg

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Woodchopper
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Mon May 22, 2023 3:16 pm

Looks like they are staying put until they are forced out by Russia, which doesn't seem capable at the moment.

Russia used to have airmobile troops that could rapidly be deployed to such incidents. But most of them will be dead by now.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by lpm » Mon May 22, 2023 4:01 pm

Why is Russia prolonging the war in Belgorod? It is going to cost lives. They should stop attacking and negotiate a ceasefire.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Mon May 22, 2023 4:42 pm

lpm wrote:
Mon May 22, 2023 4:01 pm
Why is Russia prolonging the war in Belgorod? It is going to cost lives. They should stop attacking and negotiate a ceasefire.
Bilhorod is historically Ukraine anyway

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by dyqik » Mon May 22, 2023 5:31 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Mon May 22, 2023 4:42 pm
lpm wrote:
Mon May 22, 2023 4:01 pm
Why is Russia prolonging the war in Belgorod? It is going to cost lives. They should stop attacking and negotiate a ceasefire.
Bilhorod is historically Ukraine anyway
Was it also historically Polish/Lithuanian? I need a detailed map of the Commonwealth.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Herainestold » Mon May 22, 2023 5:59 pm

Does anybody know the political orientation of this insurgent group?
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Mon May 22, 2023 6:08 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Mon May 22, 2023 5:59 pm
Does anybody know the political orientation of this insurgent group?
Banderite

/s
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Mon May 22, 2023 6:28 pm

jimbob wrote:
Mon May 22, 2023 6:08 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Mon May 22, 2023 5:59 pm
Does anybody know the political orientation of this insurgent group?
Banderite

/s
A wild mix, completely all over the place. I think they've got more political positions than actual members. The only thing they really agree on is that Putin = Khuylo. As for their armoured vehicles I'm told you can get those in any army surplus store.

Aside from being humiliating for Russia, though, it also addresses one of the biggest imbalances of the war - Russia has only had to worry about the frontline in Ukraine, Ukraine has had to worry about all of the border, a much longer frontier to defend.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Mon May 22, 2023 9:49 pm

dyqik wrote:
Mon May 22, 2023 5:31 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Mon May 22, 2023 4:42 pm
lpm wrote:
Mon May 22, 2023 4:01 pm
Why is Russia prolonging the war in Belgorod? It is going to cost lives. They should stop attacking and negotiate a ceasefire.
Bilhorod is historically Ukraine anyway
Was it also historically Polish/Lithuanian? I need a detailed map of the Commonwealth.
I don't know, I was thinking of the collapse of the Russian Empire, when Belgorod - or Bilhorod - declared itself part of Ukraine. Sadly the Soviets succeeded and effectively reimposed Muscovite imperialism.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Herainestold » Mon May 22, 2023 10:20 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Mon May 22, 2023 9:49 pm
dyqik wrote:
Mon May 22, 2023 5:31 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Mon May 22, 2023 4:42 pm


Bilhorod is historically Ukraine anyway
Was it also historically Polish/Lithuanian? I need a detailed map of the Commonwealth.
I don't know, I was thinking of the collapse of the Russian Empire, when Belgorod - or Bilhorod - declared itself part of Ukraine. Sadly the Soviets succeeded and effectively reimposed Muscovite imperialism.
That is what we need now. Russian army collapses, goes home, regime collapses, a socialist government takes its place. Seems unlikely to happen.
Putin has fine tuned Russian society to his liking. Even those that don't support his war don't oppose it either.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Mon May 22, 2023 11:04 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Mon May 22, 2023 10:20 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Mon May 22, 2023 9:49 pm
dyqik wrote:
Mon May 22, 2023 5:31 pm


Was it also historically Polish/Lithuanian? I need a detailed map of the Commonwealth.
I don't know, I was thinking of the collapse of the Russian Empire, when Belgorod - or Bilhorod - declared itself part of Ukraine. Sadly the Soviets succeeded and effectively reimposed Muscovite imperialism.
That is what we need now. Russian army collapses, goes home, regime collapses, a socialist government takes its place. Seems unlikely to happen.
Putin has fine tuned Russian society to his liking. Even those that don't support his war don't oppose it either.
Sigh,

There is a reason why Communist* revolutions ended up with autocracies and at best a promise for true communism at some point in the future. It's to do with the sort of person who gets themselves into positions of power.


*I'm guessing that you don't really mean a left of centre democracy, because there is no reason not to just say "democratic" in that case.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by headshot » Wed May 24, 2023 5:39 am

Russia are blaming the US for the incursion over the border and have released this definitely genuine, and certainly not obviously faked, image as proof:
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Wed May 24, 2023 8:25 am

No Swedish Gripens for Ukraine.

F16s it is. Easier logistics and training if its to be just one type.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by TimW » Wed May 24, 2023 10:06 am

headshot wrote:
Wed May 24, 2023 5:39 am
Russia are blaming the US for the incursion over the border and have released this definitely genuine, and certainly not obviously faked, image as proof:
Russians living near Ukraine can relax in the knowledge that the border trenches are impregnable.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Wed May 24, 2023 11:58 am

headshot wrote:
Wed May 24, 2023 5:39 am
Russia are blaming the US for the incursion over the border and have released this definitely genuine, and certainly not obviously faked, image as proof:
Oryx have listed that as a verified image: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2023/05/t ... sting.html (see the link next to 2 M1151 HMMWV).

A similar video is also being taken seriously by this normally reliable account: https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/16 ... 33984?s=20

The US would normally require that the Ukrainians ask for permission before passing any US equipment on to another party. So Washington probably gave permission and knew in advance.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Grumble » Wed May 24, 2023 1:29 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Wed May 24, 2023 11:58 am
headshot wrote:
Wed May 24, 2023 5:39 am
Russia are blaming the US for the incursion over the border and have released this definitely genuine, and certainly not obviously faked, image as proof:
Oryx have listed that as a verified image: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2023/05/t ... sting.html (see the link next to 2 M1151 HMMWV).

A similar video is also being taken seriously by this normally reliable account: https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/16 ... 33984?s=20

The US would normally require that the Ukrainians ask for permission before passing any US equipment on to another party. So Washington probably gave permission and knew in advance.
I must admit I couldn’t see any indication that it was faked, wasn’t confident of saying so because I’m just looking on a phone screen.
A bit churlish

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Wed May 24, 2023 2:12 pm

Grumble wrote:
Wed May 24, 2023 1:29 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Wed May 24, 2023 11:58 am
headshot wrote:
Wed May 24, 2023 5:39 am
Russia are blaming the US for the incursion over the border and have released this definitely genuine, and certainly not obviously faked, image as proof:
Oryx have listed that as a verified image: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2023/05/t ... sting.html (see the link next to 2 M1151 HMMWV).

A similar video is also being taken seriously by this normally reliable account: https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/16 ... 33984?s=20

The US would normally require that the Ukrainians ask for permission before passing any US equipment on to another party. So Washington probably gave permission and knew in advance.
I must admit I couldn’t see any indication that it was faked, wasn’t confident of saying so because I’m just looking on a phone screen.
Same here so I looked it up.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Wed May 24, 2023 3:34 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Wed May 24, 2023 11:58 am
headshot wrote:
Wed May 24, 2023 5:39 am
Russia are blaming the US for the incursion over the border and have released this definitely genuine, and certainly not obviously faked, image as proof:
Oryx have listed that as a verified image: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2023/05/t ... sting.html (see the link next to 2 M1151 HMMWV).
The vehicles are real, but there's a fair bit of evidence they were posed for the camera

Another photo also has "Za Bakhmut" written in fresh white paint over the scorch marks. Russia has form for posing vehicles, the question is whether these are recent losses from the raid, or a reuse of older losses, much as we saw the same Bayraktar wreckage reused early in the war.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Wed May 24, 2023 3:59 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Wed May 24, 2023 3:34 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Wed May 24, 2023 11:58 am
headshot wrote:
Wed May 24, 2023 5:39 am
Russia are blaming the US for the incursion over the border and have released this definitely genuine, and certainly not obviously faked, image as proof:
Oryx have listed that as a verified image: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2023/05/t ... sting.html (see the link next to 2 M1151 HMMWV).
The vehicles are real, but there's a fair bit of evidence they were posed for the camera

Another photo also has "Za Bakhmut" written in fresh white paint over the scorch marks. Russia has form for posing vehicles, the question is whether these are recent losses from the raid, or a reuse of older losses, much as we saw the same Bayraktar wreckage reused early in the war.
Possible Islamic State door marking on one of the humvees.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Wed May 24, 2023 5:35 pm

On how the four Russian aircraft could have been shot down with a Patriot: https://twitter.com/archieirving2/statu ... 1zY-PW4R9w

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Wed May 24, 2023 6:00 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Wed May 24, 2023 5:35 pm
On how the four Russian aircraft could have been shot down with a Patriot: https://twitter.com/archieirving2/statu ... 1zY-PW4R9w
Given the possibility the observed missile length is a filming artifact, I think this has to be the most likely scenario by far at this point. All the rest of the evidence is congruous - missile coming in roughly horizontal with motor burned out and very large blast - and the Americans not keeping their mouth shut rather points to it too. The thing that surprises me, though, is that even with the factors discussed its still a very aggressive deployment of Patriot elements not so much because they are placed immediately in danger, but because they aren't somewhere else and Patriots are needed to protect cities.

To summarise the stuff about the data link, for this to work the launcher could have been in a safe location, but a radar connected to a NATO datalink would need to be able to see the targets and keep the missile updated as to where they were. That could have been a radar from the Patriot system itself, but there are other ground based radars that could do it. Setting up a Warsaw Pact aircraft to do it, though, would be an exceptionally difficult undertaking.

To elaborate on one point, the PAC-2 missile is guided by a mixture of command guidance and active radar homing. The radar warning receivers on the Sukhois would have picked up on their being a search radar, most likely, but wouldn't have detected a lock so long as the PAC-2s were flying under command guidance. When they were close to the target, they'd have switched their terminal guidance radars on and at that point the radar warning receivers on the Russian aircraft would have gone berserk, but by that point they've got missiles bearing down on them and they are well within the missile's no escape zone.

There's a couple of the things the thread misses, though. Firstly we can rule out MANPADS by the sheer size of the explosion alone. It's on film with one of the helicopter strikes and the blast staggers people even though they are far enough it takes some seconds to arrive. That isn't someone one sees with MANPADS hits, and while we don't have footage of the impact on the Sukhoi, we do have the fact that the whole nose section was blown off by the time we see it falling, which tells us two key details; that the explosion was powerful, and that the missile wasn't aiming for the hot jet exhausts as most MANPADS do.

The other thing the thread misses is why the helicopters would have been flying above the radar horizon; they were specialist variants equipped with jammers to interfere with air defences. They were presumably there to clear the way for the Sukhois or the weapons they launched. Jammers require line of sight to work meaning they couldn't stay below the radar horizon of the target they were trying to jam.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by headshot » Wed May 24, 2023 9:29 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Wed May 24, 2023 3:34 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Wed May 24, 2023 11:58 am
headshot wrote:
Wed May 24, 2023 5:39 am
Russia are blaming the US for the incursion over the border and have released this definitely genuine, and certainly not obviously faked, image as proof:
Oryx have listed that as a verified image: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2023/05/t ... sting.html (see the link next to 2 M1151 HMMWV).
The vehicles are real, but there's a fair bit of evidence they were posed for the camera

Another photo also has "Za Bakhmut" written in fresh white paint over the scorch marks. Russia has form for posing vehicles, the question is whether these are recent losses from the raid, or a reuse of older losses, much as we saw the same Bayraktar wreckage reused early in the war.
That was my point. The soil around the trench doesn’t at all look like a bunker blast - none of the displacement looks real. The carefully laid logs on the far left, that seem to be holding the vehicle up…and the completely undamaged office block in the background just infront of vehicles with bullet and blast damage.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Thu May 25, 2023 11:23 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Wed May 24, 2023 3:59 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Wed May 24, 2023 3:34 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Wed May 24, 2023 11:58 am


Oryx have listed that as a verified image: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2023/05/t ... sting.html (see the link next to 2 M1151 HMMWV).
The vehicles are real, but there's a fair bit of evidence they were posed for the camera

Another photo also has "Za Bakhmut" written in fresh white paint over the scorch marks. Russia has form for posing vehicles, the question is whether these are recent losses from the raid, or a reuse of older losses, much as we saw the same Bayraktar wreckage reused early in the war.
Possible Islamic State door marking on one of the humvees.
There seems to be a bit of a bit of a Twitter dispute over this: https://twitter.com/elmustek/status/166 ... 82693?s=20

There is other video of the Free Russia Legion with Humvees, so it appears that the type of vehicle was used in the raid.

That leaves those individual Humvees in the photograph. Of course them having been moved there and staged is possible. But that strikes me as being something far more organized than it seems that the Russian armed forces were capable of while the raid took place.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Thu May 25, 2023 6:47 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Wed May 24, 2023 8:25 am
No Swedish Gripens for Ukraine.

F16s it is. Easier logistics and training if its to be just one type.
And yet we've had reports that Ukrainians will be training on Gripens since you posted that, though where they'll get them from remains to be seen.

Ukraine needs a long range AAM shooter with a good radar. The F-16s being retired in Europe right now, while suitable to replace ageing MiG-29s and an upgrade on them, don't fit the bill for that. Gripens would, Rafales would, Typhoons would, as would more modern F-16s or F-15s. Australia's got some recently retired F-18s, don't know how good their radars are, but the current Australian government doesn't seem hugely interested in military aid right now.

The ideal solution would be to send the tranche 1 Typhoons currently in British storage, and to upgrade them to operate Meteor or late AIM-120 C-block or AIM-120D AMRAAMs. They haven't got the very best radars compared to more modern Typhoon variants, but what they have should be good enough to push Russian jets back from the border, and give MiG-31 R-37 shooters something to worry about.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Thu May 25, 2023 7:58 pm

Yesterday, Russians showed footage of their spy ship Ivan Khurs destroying an incoming drone boat with its guns. Today, however, footage emerged showing that one of the drone boats got through. Unclear how much damage, but I'd be quite surprised, given yesterday's footage, if the damage was catastrophic or the ship sunk. Still, a large explosive warhead going off that close must have done some damage to the ship at least.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Fri May 26, 2023 6:43 am

Some hard hits in Berdyansk overnight, geolocated to warehouses near the port, with possible secondary explosions. Berdyansk ought to be heavily defended by air defence, and it is well out of reach for GMLRS, meaning it was likely Storm Shadow. Storm Shadow, incidentally, is being carried by Su-24MRs. Sukhoi 24s - NATO reporting name "Fencer" - are big two seat swing-wing ground attack aircraft. The variant carrying the Storm Shadows appears to be a reconnaissance variant that wouldn't otherwise be much use. It's an ideal plane for the job as it is large enough to carry multiple missiles and has a two person crew meaning the pilot can focus on flying while the second crewperson operates the weapons interface.

There's also reports of drones looking a bit like the Iranian Shaheds attacking Krasnodar overnight. I'm not sure of the precise target, but Krasnodar is more than three hundred kilometres from the nearest Ukrainian held territory, and even if it turns out it was somewhere in Krasnodar Krai and not Krasnodar per se, it's still a very long way from Ukrainian held territory. I seem to have mislaid where I saw the footage, but one thing that stood out was it was daylight, given when the reports emerged probably this morning. Some improvised munitions use manual guidance with a camera and datalink, daylight would help with that. Otherwise one would expect darkness to be preferred so as to make air defence work harder.

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