Blyatskrieg

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Fri May 26, 2023 7:40 am

Not quite as Shahed shaped as I first thought, more of a canard configuration than a delta. Image is snipped from a Telegram video of one of the drones coming in, and is heading right to left.
Krasnodar Drone 26-05-2023.JPG
Krasnodar Drone 26-05-2023.JPG (7.87 KiB) Viewed 673 times
ETA: Based on the sound on the video, these are propeller powered

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Fri May 26, 2023 7:56 am

Canada is donating AIM-9 Sidewinders as well as a bunch of other useful stuff.

This is an interesting one. Theoretically all a Sidewinder needs is a cooled hardpoint, much as an R-73 does. Ukraine's existing jets are fitted for that. To get the best out of it, though, it needs a datalink to allow it to be steered to a point it can lock on rather than forcing the firing aircraft to get into a position where the Sidewinder's seeker can lock on before firing.

The Sidewinder is a venerable missile, but one that has been constantly updated, so without a particular model number, it's hard to work out much about the capabilities involved, however, AIM-9 Sidewinders are short ranged heat seeking air-to-air missiles that could potentially be adapted to ground launch as a SHORADS. This donation is only a few dozen, but there are huge numbers of these missiles in stock right across NATO with most NATO countries having used them at some point, though in some countries missiles like IRIS-T and ASRAAM have replaced them.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Fri May 26, 2023 9:19 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Thu May 25, 2023 6:47 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Wed May 24, 2023 8:25 am
No Swedish Gripens for Ukraine.

F16s it is. Easier logistics and training if its to be just one type.
And yet we've had reports that Ukrainians will be training on Gripens since you posted that, though where they'll get them from remains to be seen.
Article here states that the Swedish training is about orientation (but also that Sweden won't provide and Gripens). If so it could just be about getting Ukrainian pilots used to flying western aircraft which might help them transition to F16s or other.
[in Swedish] https://www.tv4.se/artikel/49lIV6ymk8P5 ... jas-gripen

Alternatively, as you say, they could come from another air force. In Europe they are used in Hungary and the Czech Republic. I can't see Orban helping so that leaves the Czechs. No idea about how likely that is.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Fri May 26, 2023 9:24 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Wed May 24, 2023 6:00 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Wed May 24, 2023 5:35 pm
On how the four Russian aircraft could have been shot down with a Patriot: https://twitter.com/archieirving2/statu ... 1zY-PW4R9w
Given the possibility the observed missile length is a filming artifact, I think this has to be the most likely scenario by far at this point. All the rest of the evidence is congruous - missile coming in roughly horizontal with motor burned out and very large blast - and the Americans not keeping their mouth shut rather points to it too. The thing that surprises me, though, is that even with the factors discussed its still a very aggressive deployment of Patriot elements not so much because they are placed immediately in danger, but because they aren't somewhere else and Patriots are needed to protect cities.
On your last point, the coming offensive will need air defence units deployed to protect the advancing troops. So Ukriane may have some in reserve and earmarked for that purpose.

I'm assuming that such an aggressive use was a pre-planned ambush, that they knew that the aircraft were likely to be there and used the systems for a short period. So the risks would be much lower than the forward deployment of a radar etc for a long period looking for targets.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Fri May 26, 2023 9:37 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Fri May 26, 2023 9:19 am
EACLucifer wrote:
Thu May 25, 2023 6:47 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Wed May 24, 2023 8:25 am
No Swedish Gripens for Ukraine.

F16s it is. Easier logistics and training if its to be just one type.
And yet we've had reports that Ukrainians will be training on Gripens since you posted that, though where they'll get them from remains to be seen.
Article here states that the Swedish training is about orientation (but also that Sweden won't provide and Gripens). If so it could just be about getting Ukrainian pilots used to flying western aircraft which might help them transition to F16s or other.
[in Swedish] https://www.tv4.se/artikel/49lIV6ymk8P5 ... jas-gripen

Alternatively, as you say, they could come from another air force. In Europe they are used in Hungary and the Czech Republic. I can't see Orban helping so that leaves the Czechs. No idea about how likely that is.
This article states that the training is about Ukraine's long term development of its armed forces.
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/ukra ... jas-gripen

So perhaps the Swedes are angling for some future export sales.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by TopBadger » Fri May 26, 2023 9:41 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Fri May 26, 2023 9:37 am
This article states that the training is about Ukraine's long term development of its armed forces.
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/ukra ... jas-gripen

So perhaps the Swedes are angling for some future export sales.
I suspect they'll have lost the sale to F16's by that point... If they would like Ukraine to operate their aircraft then no time like the present to get them some...
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Fri May 26, 2023 10:00 am

TopBadger wrote:
Fri May 26, 2023 9:41 am
Woodchopper wrote:
Fri May 26, 2023 9:37 am
This article states that the training is about Ukraine's long term development of its armed forces.
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/ukra ... jas-gripen

So perhaps the Swedes are angling for some future export sales.
I suspect they'll have lost the sale to F16's by that point... If they would like Ukraine to operate their aircraft then no time like the present to get them some...
I agree. The old saying goes that arms sales are less about the equipment and more about the friends you buy. On that logic the post-war Ukrainian government would likely buy American.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Imrael » Fri May 26, 2023 11:20 am

TopBadger wrote:
Fri May 26, 2023 9:41 am


I suspect they'll have lost the sale to F16's by that point... If they would like Ukraine to operate their aircraft then no time like the present to get them some...
They, like the rest of Europe, might be eyeing Plan B options in case of a Trump or other MAGA=republican 2nd term making the US flakey and unreliable allies.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Fri May 26, 2023 2:55 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Thu May 25, 2023 7:58 pm
Yesterday, Russians showed footage of their spy ship Ivan Khurs destroying an incoming drone boat with its guns. Today, however, footage emerged showing that one of the drone boats got through. Unclear how much damage, but I'd be quite surprised, given yesterday's footage, if the damage was catastrophic or the ship sunk. Still, a large explosive warhead going off that close must have done some damage to the ship at least.
Some new footage claimed to be of the Ivan Khurs being hit. Looks like it was taken from another drone.
https://twitter.com/vorobyov/status/166 ... 05569?s=20

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Imrael » Fri May 26, 2023 3:03 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Fri May 26, 2023 2:55 pm


Some new footage claimed to be of the Ivan Khurs being hit. Looks like it was taken from another drone.
https://twitter.com/vorobyov/status/166 ... 05569?s=20
Also saw on twitter footage purporting to be the Ivan Khurs undamaged docking in Sevastapol. But equally, suggestions that it was a sister ship, and/or that the weather didnt match, suggesting historic footage. And now (in typical twitter fashion) I cant find it again.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat May 27, 2023 2:44 am

Imrael wrote:
Fri May 26, 2023 11:20 am
TopBadger wrote:
Fri May 26, 2023 9:41 am


I suspect they'll have lost the sale to F16's by that point... If they would like Ukraine to operate their aircraft then no time like the present to get them some...
They, like the rest of Europe, might be eyeing Plan B options in case of a Trump or other MAGA=republican 2nd term making the US flakey and unreliable allies.
A number of European countries have done rather better than the USA on aid anyway, at least on a per capita basis, with the USA dragging its heels on things like tanks and long range missiles - and earlier on air defence of any sort - while European countries, especially those formerly subjugated by the Soviet Union and to a lesser extent Britain, leading the way and the USA at times doing sh.tty things like removing parts of the fire control system from M777s.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat May 27, 2023 2:52 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Fri May 26, 2023 9:24 am
EACLucifer wrote:
Wed May 24, 2023 6:00 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Wed May 24, 2023 5:35 pm
On how the four Russian aircraft could have been shot down with a Patriot: https://twitter.com/archieirving2/statu ... 1zY-PW4R9w
Given the possibility the observed missile length is a filming artifact, I think this has to be the most likely scenario by far at this point. All the rest of the evidence is congruous - missile coming in roughly horizontal with motor burned out and very large blast - and the Americans not keeping their mouth shut rather points to it too. The thing that surprises me, though, is that even with the factors discussed its still a very aggressive deployment of Patriot elements not so much because they are placed immediately in danger, but because they aren't somewhere else and Patriots are needed to protect cities.
On your last point, the coming offensive will need air defence units deployed to protect the advancing troops. So Ukriane may have some in reserve and earmarked for that purpose.
Ukraine does not have enough air defence systems with an anti-ballistic-missile capability to defend everywhere that needs it, sadly, and continued loss of civilian life to Russian ballistic missile strikes is testament to that. Per Oryx, Ukraine has two Patriot batteries and one SAMP/T battery. Now those batteries consist of multiple elements, so it is perhaps possible that a Patriot launcher could be used in conjunction with a different radar, I don't really know.

Ukraine will indeed need to provide air cover to their offensive when it comes. One key point - if the offensive takes the form of an attempted armoured breakout - is to achieve a breakthrough into the operational depth and through the frontline fortifications before the attack is countered. One can expect various attempts to paralyse the movement of ground reserves, but another element the Russians may try to use is airpower, as the stakes involved in trying to stop an armoured breakthrough make it more worth risking aircraft and pilots than normal. Thus keeping Russian airpower off the armoured spearhead becomes vital. That said, it's a role where slightly lighter and less critical air defence systems like NASAMS and IRIS-T may prove as effective without the commensurate reduction in ABM protection for cities that deploying Patriots in that role would entail.
I'm assuming that such an aggressive use was a pre-planned ambush, that they knew that the aircraft were likely to be there and used the systems for a short period. So the risks would be much lower than the forward deployment of a radar etc for a long period looking for targets.
Agreed, I think that whatever happened, it was an ambush. That it was possible to anticipate and successfully destroy by ambush an entire strike package must give senior Russian aviation officers quite the headache.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat May 27, 2023 4:34 am

Imrael wrote:
Fri May 26, 2023 3:03 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Fri May 26, 2023 2:55 pm


Some new footage claimed to be of the Ivan Khurs being hit. Looks like it was taken from another drone.
https://twitter.com/vorobyov/status/166 ... 05569?s=20
Also saw on twitter footage purporting to be the Ivan Khurs undamaged docking in Sevastapol. But equally, suggestions that it was a sister ship, and/or that the weather didnt match, suggesting historic footage. And now (in typical twitter fashion) I cant find it again.
There is ridiculous amounts of fake footage circulating both trying to claim the ship is fine and undamaged and that is crippled, the former including old footage and footage of a different class, the latter mostly reusing footage of the suicide bomb attack on the USS Cole back in the 90s. I'm going to wait until people that know a lot more about this draw conclusions.

The one conclusion I will draw, though, is that those little drone boats are better at getting up close with armed ships than I expected they would be.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Grumble » Sat May 27, 2023 6:19 am

I would have expected drone subs to be more successful, but I guess the problem is controlling the things once underwater.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat May 27, 2023 6:38 am

Grumble wrote:
Sat May 27, 2023 6:19 am
I would have expected drone subs to be more successful, but I guess the problem is controlling the things once underwater.
There's a project underway to develop a range of them, I think I mentioned it upthread but not sure how far back.

Another option to seriously consider would be to use a drone boat - possibly a one way one but a two way one would do - to carry a rocket or missile. A rocket of similar weight to the warhead used by these boats would do a hell of a lot of damage especially as most of the weight could be warhead, and because you know which way it will be going, it could be a shaped charge. Alternatively, a boat could be used as a semi-disposable carrier for missiles like Harpoon or Neptune - might need to be a bigger boat - that could allow them to lurk in locations where Russian ships may go or carry them into reach of Sevastopol to hit ships on their way to or from that port. There'd need to be a system to update the missiles on where to look for targets, so there'd need to be an additional reconnaissance element, but it could be done. Another option would be to mount GMLRS rockets in individual tubes and have the boats carry them within striking range of Sevastopol, though that would likely require American tech support and the Americans have been horribly lukewarm, at least until recently, on the issue of hitting Crimea.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Sat May 27, 2023 6:45 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Sat May 27, 2023 6:38 am
Grumble wrote:
Sat May 27, 2023 6:19 am
I would have expected drone subs to be more successful, but I guess the problem is controlling the things once underwater.
There's a project underway to develop a range of them, I think I mentioned it upthread but not sure how far back.

Another option to seriously consider would be to use a drone boat - possibly a one way one but a two way one would do - to carry a rocket or missile. A rocket of similar weight to the warhead used by these boats would do a hell of a lot of damage especially as most of the weight could be warhead, and because you know which way it will be going, it could be a shaped charge. Alternatively, a boat could be used as a semi-disposable carrier for missiles like Harpoon or Neptune - might need to be a bigger boat - that could allow them to lurk in locations where Russian ships may go or carry them into reach of Sevastopol to hit ships on their way to or from that port. There'd need to be a system to update the missiles on where to look for targets, so there'd need to be an additional reconnaissance element, but it could be done. Another option would be to mount GMLRS rockets in individual tubes and have the boats carry them within striking range of Sevastopol, though that would likely require American tech support and the Americans have been horribly lukewarm, at least until recently, on the issue of hitting Crimea.
Yes, I'd been thinking along similar lines... using one as a launch platform for, say Brimstone, could cause significant damage to a vessel, especially if followed up with a ln attack by the USV itself, and it would also enable attacks of targets ashore
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat May 27, 2023 6:50 am

One further thought on F-16s and the future of the Ukrainian air force.

In the long run, they'll need to be able to stand up to whatever Russian airforce survives. At present, F-16s of the vintage likely to be supplied are at a serious disadvantage compared to MiG-31s with R-37 missiles. F-16s are a damn good workhorse, but there's better options out there than F-16s. If the most modern were to be supplied, they'd be much closer to parity, but then we're talking new planes, and F-16s aren't going to be in production much longer at all.

In the long run, it would be better by far to adopt Typhoons/Gripens/Rafales or even jump straight to F-35s, and either AIM-120Ds or Meteors to arm them. The question is which of those could be arranged in the short term. Could Sweden or Czechia be persuaded to part with some, perhaps to be backfilled by new production aircraft? If so, that might well mean other nations lending aircraft and likely pilots to cover the capability gap that would leave, much as the UK leant Challenger 2s, including crews, to Poland to cover them sending a bunch of T-72s to Ukraine while they wait for their Abrams and K2 orders. Typhoons and Rafales are both still in production, and there are some Typhoons in storage in the UK. These are Tranche 1 Typhoons, not as advanced as the more modern versions, but still a damn sight better than an older-model F-16. Could some of these be provided to stand up to the MiG-31s and threaten Russian SEAD patrols and glide bomb missions, and to get Ukraine started on Typhoons so as to later standardise on them? Could Ukraine even be provided the more modern variants and the stored Tranche 1s be upgraded to backfill the transfer?

Unfortunately, what is needed is a joint effort, not a piecemeal mix of types from a bunch of different nations. Ukraine want four squadrons, so perhaps that could be 2xF16, 1xMirage and 1xTyphoon? Perhaps the Australian FA-18s could be involved somewhere. What is needed is for all the countries backing Ukraine to pool their financial resources and purchase or lease a sensible selection of aircraft from those available. Sadly that requires nations to put self-interest second, including the interests of their own arms industries, and that doesn't seem very likely. Most nations don't seem very interested in paying for kit to be transferred from inventories other than their own - with the honourable exceptions of Germany's Ringtausch program, the UKs provision of M109 SPGs and M119 howitzers from the surplus market, and the Netherlands donating a significant number of tanks despite not actually owning any.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat May 27, 2023 7:02 am

jimbob wrote:
Sat May 27, 2023 6:45 am
EACLucifer wrote:
Sat May 27, 2023 6:38 am
Grumble wrote:
Sat May 27, 2023 6:19 am
I would have expected drone subs to be more successful, but I guess the problem is controlling the things once underwater.
There's a project underway to develop a range of them, I think I mentioned it upthread but not sure how far back.

Another option to seriously consider would be to use a drone boat - possibly a one way one but a two way one would do - to carry a rocket or missile. A rocket of similar weight to the warhead used by these boats would do a hell of a lot of damage especially as most of the weight could be warhead, and because you know which way it will be going, it could be a shaped charge. Alternatively, a boat could be used as a semi-disposable carrier for missiles like Harpoon or Neptune - might need to be a bigger boat - that could allow them to lurk in locations where Russian ships may go or carry them into reach of Sevastopol to hit ships on their way to or from that port. There'd need to be a system to update the missiles on where to look for targets, so there'd need to be an additional reconnaissance element, but it could be done. Another option would be to mount GMLRS rockets in individual tubes and have the boats carry them within striking range of Sevastopol, though that would likely require American tech support and the Americans have been horribly lukewarm, at least until recently, on the issue of hitting Crimea.
Yes, I'd been thinking along similar lines... using one as a launch platform for, say Brimstone, could cause significant damage to a vessel, especially if followed up with a ln attack by the USV itself, and it would also enable attacks of targets ashore
Given these boats don't seem to struggle to get into line of sight, Hellfires could also be an option, as well as potentially other air-launched munitions adapted to ground launch - AGM-65 Mavericks would be fantastic, if the targetting could be sorted out. Another option would be the AGM-119 Penguin, which is designed for launch from boats as well as helicopters and aircraft, and only needs to know roughly where its target is when launched as it has its own terminal guidance that is designed to hit ships. It's a lot lighter than Harpoon meaning it would be easier to fit onto a semi-disposable drone boat, and apparently already in service with Ukraine since some point last year. It would still need to know where it's target was, more or less, but an even smaller and harder to spot drone boat could do the scouting, and it wouldn't be too hard for NATO recon assets to tip off Ukrainian drone-boat operators about the movements of Russian warships.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Grumble » Sat May 27, 2023 7:48 am

The radar profile of a drone boat that is barely above the water is minuscule, stick a missile on top and the radar cross section will increase by a lot.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat May 27, 2023 8:34 am

Just a quick reminder that a) when you are planning an operation that relies to a significant extent on surprise for its effectiveness, you don't brief the media on it first, and b) when you are planning an operation that relies to a significant extent on surprise for its effectiveness, you do benefit from misdirections, demonstrations and feints.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Sat May 27, 2023 11:49 am

Grumble wrote:
Sat May 27, 2023 6:19 am
I would have expected drone subs to be more successful, but I guess the problem is controlling the things once underwater.
Yes, and a submerged drone wouldn't be able to receive GPS signals.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Sat May 27, 2023 11:55 am

On missile carrying drones.

Perhaps a torpedo would be a better payload. They have range of tens of kilometers and its far more effective to hit a ship below the waterline and cause flooding.

But with both torpedoes and missiles the problem is that what was a cheap and disposable weapon has become an expensive weapon. It might be better to use 20 simple drones than a single one armed with a Hellfire.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Imrael » Sat May 27, 2023 11:57 am

Grumble wrote:
Sat May 27, 2023 6:19 am
I would have expected drone subs to be more successful, but I guess the problem is controlling the things once underwater.
This did get me wondering about torpedo launchers on drones - but casual reading suggests a torpedo launcher is a pretty complicated piece of equipment. Plus not sure Ukrainians have any actual torpedoes.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Grumble » Sat May 27, 2023 12:00 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Sat May 27, 2023 11:55 am
On missile carrying drones.

Perhaps a torpedo would be a better payload. They have range of tens of kilometers and its far more effective to hit a ship below the waterline and cause flooding.

But with both torpedoes and missiles the problem is that what was a cheap and disposable weapon has become an expensive weapon. It might be better to use 20 simple drones than a single one armed with a Hellfire.
Maybe the next gen of drones could dive at the last moment and explode under the ship
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by bjn » Sat May 27, 2023 2:25 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Sat May 27, 2023 11:49 am
Grumble wrote:
Sat May 27, 2023 6:19 am
I would have expected drone subs to be more successful, but I guess the problem is controlling the things once underwater.
Yes, and a submerged drone wouldn't be able to receive GPS signals.
An antenna sticking out of the water? You couldn't submerge too deeply, but you don't need to have the water stop bullets and shells.

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