Russian Civil War

[EACLucifer]

Belarusians in exile fighting for Ukraine to appeal to the Belarusian population later today.

Demonstrate weakness and those you oppress realise they might be able to do something about it. Depending on how it goes with Belarus, we might see Chechnya and Dagestan and others joining in.

[EACLucifer]

ETA: looks like that air defence equipment is getting some use already. As well as reports of three helicopters downed, there's also this, described as a Russian "bomber" getting downed over Voronezh. Judging by the footage it looks like an Su-25 ground attack aircraft rather than a heavy bomber.

Missed the edit window, but also claims of anAn-26 getting downed instead. Without a good sense of scale silhoutte is quite similar. Or could be two incidents. Or one or both could be fakes, there'll be a lot of those circulating.

ETA: Yeah, so about those fakes...looks like it's old footage of an An-26 going down rather than related to current events. Not sure about the thing I identified as an Su-25, though, that's different footage.

Ukraine Weapons Tracker - run by OSINTers with impeccable credentials - think it isn't old, but that it's an Il-22M communications aircraft, a highly valuable asset. Their assessment is in part based on Russian sources.

[Woodchopper]

The Wagnerites seem to be roughly about 300 km away from Moscow. Remarkable that they haven’t encountered any serious opposition. Possible that there aren’t any Russian troops near the highway. Also possible that those who are near have decided to sit it out.

Assuming that their aim is to take Moscow as quickly as possible they may drive in tomorrow morning.

[Woodchopper]

Looks like there may be a stand at the Oka river outside Moscow
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/statu ... 1zY-PW4R9w

[Woodchopper]

Chris O thread on how there isn’t much in Moscow capable of stopping Wagner: https://twitter.com/chriso_wiki/status/ ... 1zY-PW4R9w

[EACLucifer]

Chris O thread on how there isn’t much in Moscow capable of stopping Wagner: https://twitter.com/chriso_wiki/status/ ... 1zY-PW4R9w

I've got to admit a one-sided Prigozhin win with much of the regime defecting and business as usual is my biggest fear at the moment.

[Brightonian]

Looks like there may be a stand at the Oka river outside Moscow
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/statu ... 1zY-PW4R9w

Video said to be of Wagner going through road blocks en route to Moscow: https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1 ... 0024756224

[Woodchopper]

Chris O thread on how there isn’t much in Moscow capable of stopping Wagner: https://twitter.com/chriso_wiki/status/ ... 1zY-PW4R9w

I've got to admit a one-sided Prigozhin win with much of the regime defecting and business as usual is my biggest fear at the moment.

Yes, he’s one of the most brutal characters on the planet.

[EACLucifer]

Chris O thread on how there isn’t much in Moscow capable of stopping Wagner: https://twitter.com/chriso_wiki/status/ ... 1zY-PW4R9w

I've got to admit a one-sided Prigozhin win with much of the regime defecting and business as usual is my biggest fear at the moment.

Yes, he’s one of the most brutal characters on the planet.

And we really want as much disruption to the Russian Federation as possible.

[IvanV]

Chris O thread on how there isn’t much in Moscow capable of stopping Wagner: https://twitter.com/chriso_wiki/status/ ... 1zY-PW4R9w

I've got to admit a one-sided Prigozhin win with much of the regime defecting and business as usual is my biggest fear at the moment.

In a statement yesterday he said the Russian invasion of Ukraine was based on lies. You can't believe a word any of them say. But having put that out there in public, can he really turn round and tell the Russians that they have continue fighting in Ukraine, losing many thousands more, if he displaces Putin?

He is not from that close-knit KGB/FSB set that largely controls Russia. I don't think it is easy for him just to step into Putin's shoes and carry on as normal. I think he'd have a job consolidating control in Russia, which would be difficult for him to achieve while the Ukrainian distraction continues.

Recently he was recently making a lot of money out of Wagner by looting unstable bits of Africa. He might rather get back to that, than losing money and fighters on a large scale in Ukraine.

Russia is not going to suddenly become a nice place with him in charge. Nor is it likely that any kind of a nice person is going to rise to the top in Russia in the foreseeable. And it will carry on being nasty around the world.

[dyqik]

Chris O thread on how there isn’t much in Moscow capable of stopping Wagner: https://twitter.com/chriso_wiki/status/ ... 1zY-PW4R9w

I've got to admit a one-sided Prigozhin win with much of the regime defecting and business as usual is my biggest fear at the moment.

In a statement yesterday he said the Russian invasion of Ukraine was based on lies. You can't believe a word any of them say. But having put that out there in public, can he really turn round and tell the Russians that they have continue fighting in Ukraine, losing many thousands more, if he displaces Putin?

He is not from that close-knit KGB/FSB set that largely controls Russia. I don't think it is easy for him just to step into Putin's shoes and carry on as normal. I think he'd have a job consolidating control in Russia, which would be difficult for him to achieve while the Ukrainian distraction continues.

Of the options for replacing Putin, he might be the most destabilizing option that can succeed. A time taken to consolidate control is a time of weakened stability.

[dyqik]

One of the fastest ways to consolidate power would be to get sanctions lifted. That probably means playing nice with the West, and exposing (some of) Putin's influence networks could be a part of that.

Which would make for interesting times.

[lpm]

Chris O thread on how there isn’t much in Moscow capable of stopping Wagner: https://twitter.com/chriso_wiki/status/ ... 1zY-PW4R9w

This is crazy wrong surely.

You can't take Moscow with 20,000 troops. Imagine meeting Hitler in hell and telling him you conquered Moscow with 20,000. Hitler would get so angry he'd become a meme.

Putin remains popular in Russia, even if a lot of the support is grudging. He can still command the resources of a huge range of allies. Nobody is going to be invited in and a palace coup remains unlikely.

I don't see Putin at risk. He can trade a lot of space for time. It'll get bogged down. If Russians couldn't take Kyiv, Russians can't take Moscow.

The worry remains Putin crushing this too easily.

[Martin Y]

...If Russians couldn't take Kyiv, Russians can't take Moscow.

The worry remains Putin crushing this too easily.

One reason Russia couldn't take Kiev is that the Ukrainian army wasn't all away fighting a foreign war like the Russian army is now.

I agree the worry is this will be so one-sided it won't harm Russia enough for Ukraine to see the benefit, but it could yet turn out one-sided in either direction.

[Grumble]

Chris O thread on how there isn’t much in Moscow capable of stopping Wagner: https://twitter.com/chriso_wiki/status/ ... 1zY-PW4R9w

This is crazy wrong surely.

You can't take Moscow with 20,000 troops. Imagine meeting Hitler in hell and telling him you conquered Moscow with 20,000. Hitler would get so angry he'd become a meme.

Putin remains popular in Russia, even if a lot of the support is grudging. He can still command the resources of a huge range of allies. Nobody is going to be invited in and a palace coup remains unlikely.

I don't see Putin at risk. He can trade a lot of space for time. It'll get bogged down. If Russians couldn't take Kyiv, Russians can't take Moscow.

The worry remains Putin crushing this too easily.

A major part of Putin’s “popularity” is down to his strong-man image. That’s currently in tatters.
ETA: or at the very least under serious question

[TimW]

You can't take Moscow with 20,000 troops. Imagine meeting Hitler in hell and telling him you conquered Moscow with 20,000. Hitler would get so angry he'd become a meme.

The police have blocked the M4 and will arrest any Wagner troops that have the nerve to take a detour, Putin will be fine.

[dyqik]

Chris O thread on how there isn’t much in Moscow capable of stopping Wagner: https://twitter.com/chriso_wiki/status/ ... 1zY-PW4R9w

This is crazy wrong surely.

You can't take Moscow with 20,000 troops. Imagine meeting Hitler in hell and telling him you conquered Moscow with 20,000. Hitler would get so angry he'd become a meme.

Putin remains popular in Russia, even if a lot of the support is grudging. He can still command the resources of a huge range of allies. Nobody is going to be invited in and a palace coup remains unlikely.

I don't see Putin at risk. He can trade a lot of space for time. It'll get bogged down. If Russians couldn't take Kyiv, Russians can't take Moscow.

The worry remains Putin crushing this too easily.

That TASS is broadcasting amnesty offers to Wagner fighters (per the Guardian) suggests that at least some in the Russian government don't think that it will be crushed easily, or that the war in Ukraine can continue without Wagner.

[bob sterman]

Chris O thread on how there isn’t much in Moscow capable of stopping Wagner: https://twitter.com/chriso_wiki/status/ ... 1zY-PW4R9w

I've got to admit a one-sided Prigozhin win with much of the regime defecting and business as usual is my biggest fear at the moment.

Fantasy scenario (yes ridiculous I know) - moderate figures in regime offer up Putin and agree to withdraw from Ukraine in exchange for assistance from west in taking out Wagner.

[jimbob]

ETA: looks like that air defence equipment is getting some use already. As well as reports of three helicopters downed, there's also this, described as a Russian "bomber" getting downed over Voronezh. Judging by the footage it looks like an Su-25 ground attack aircraft rather than a heavy bomber.

Missed the edit window, but also claims of anAn-26 getting downed instead. Without a good sense of scale silhoutte is quite similar. Or could be two incidents. Or one or both could be fakes, there'll be a lot of those circulating.

ETA: Yeah, so about those fakes...looks like it's old footage of an An-26 going down rather than related to current events. Not sure about the thing I identified as an Su-25, though, that's different footage.

Ukraine Weapons Tracker - run by OSINTers with impeccable credentials - think it isn't old, but that it's an Il-22M communications aircraft, a highly valuable asset. Their assessment is in part based on Russian sources.

Orux should announce he's stopping his lists more often

[jimbob]

ETA: looks like that air defence equipment is getting some use already. As well as reports of three helicopters downed, there's also this, described as a Russian "bomber" getting downed over Voronezh. Judging by the footage it looks like an Su-25 ground attack aircraft rather than a heavy bomber.

Missed the edit window, but also claims of anAn-26 getting downed instead. Without a good sense of scale silhoutte is quite similar. Or could be two incidents. Or one or both could be fakes, there'll be a lot of those circulating.

ETA: Yeah, so about those fakes...looks like it's old footage of an An-26 going down rather than related to current events. Not sure about the thing I identified as an Su-25, though, that's different footage.

Ukraine Weapons Tracker - run by OSINTers with impeccable credentials - think it isn't old, but that it's an Il-22M communications aircraft, a highly valuable asset. Their assessment is in part based on Russian sources.

Orux should announce he's stopping his lists more often

[Grumble]

Well that’s fallen flat, it all seems to be off.

[Brightonian]

Lukashenko reported he conducted negotiations with Prigozhin on Putin's request.

Prigozhin allegedly accepted Lukashenko's offer to stop movement of Wagner's mercenaries and take further steps to de-escalate tension - Pul Pervogo Telegram channel:

"At the moment, there is an absolutely advantageous and acceptable option of the denouement of the situation on the table, with security guarantees for the Wagner PMC fighters.
As previously reported, also during today the President of Belarus held two meetings with the security bloc of the country on the situation," reported on Telegram channel, close to Lukashenko's press service.

From https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/sta ... 2397084673

Is Lukashenko just muddying the waters, or could Prigozhin really have decided to stop for some reason?

[Woodchopper]

Chris O thread on how there isn’t much in Moscow capable of stopping Wagner: https://twitter.com/chriso_wiki/status/ ... 1zY-PW4R9w

This is crazy wrong surely.

You can't take Moscow with 20,000 troops. Imagine meeting Hitler in hell and telling him you conquered Moscow with 20,000. Hitler would get so angry he'd become a meme.

Putin remains popular in Russia, even if a lot of the support is grudging. He can still command the resources of a huge range of allies. Nobody is going to be invited in and a palace coup remains unlikely.

I don't see Putin at risk. He can trade a lot of space for time. It'll get bogged down. If Russians couldn't take Kyiv, Russians can't take Moscow.

The worry remains Putin crushing this too easily.

You can’t take a city with that many if you’re opposed by the population. But it’s not difficult if the population supports you or is indifferent.

What looks like a few hundred Wagnerites took over the centre of Rostov, population about one million. People were giving them food.

[Formerly AvP]

Seems to me like a victory for Wagner and a major defeat for Putin. Presumably the Lukashenko deal involves amnesty for Wagner's mutiny, perhaps removal of their opponents, and supply of weapons and munitions. Putin seems seriously weakened to me.
Wagner never really had the capacity to take Russia, but perhaps he could have taken Moscow at least temporarily. I think that is what they were afraid of.
I'm not a fan of assassination, but it may be Putin's best option at the moment.

Disclaimer: what the hell do I know?

[Woodchopper]

Putin has been made to look weak. Anyone who challenges him should be destroyed. Putin was also indecisive. This started Friday night and it took until Saturday morning before Putin decisively came out against Prigozhin and Wagner. This is damaging for a dictator.
Similar applies to Gerasimov and Shoigu. The longer Prigozhin is free and in charge of Wagner the more incompetent they look.

The three of them really need to kill Prigozhin. He had better take to never leaving the ground floor.

ETA if they don't then there may well be other challengers from within the armed forces. Prigozhin has shown how easy it is.