Russian Civil War

[Woodchopper]

Kremlin spox Dmitry Peskov:
– charges dropped against Prigozhin, who will leave Russia for Belarus
– Wagner fighters who didn't take part in the uprising will sign contracts with the MOD
– Wagner fighters who did take part not charged
– No word on potential MOD leadership changes

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/16 ... 1zY-PW4R9w

[lpm]

Stupid by Prigozhin. He'll be sidelined and then "commit suicide" soon enough.

[Grumble]

Stupid by Prigozhin. He'll be sidelined and then "commit suicide" soon enough.

Accidentally walk out of a window, or possibly drink some spicy tea

[El Pollo Diablo]

Stupid by Prigozhin. He'll be sidelined and then "commit suicide" soon enough.

Yeah, really stupid. Surely he can't think he's got away with it?

[FlammableFlower]

Reality's on the blink again.

Or rather... WTAF was all that about?

It just seems bizarre that the head of a PMC can throw a tantrum, march on the capital city of the funding country and then suddenly it's all fine, he can go live elsewhere, pardons all round.

Surely Wagner's potential, and usual, client base aren't going to want to go near a bunch of potential coup-mongerers with a bargepole. Considering they'd got within an uncomfortable distance of the capital of a nuclear power and people were starting to wonder if they could actually precipitate a coup (or at least start dictating how things were run militarily), I can't see why dictators of smaller countries will consider them reliable hired guns.

[Woodchopper]

Stupid by Prigozhin. He'll be sidelined and then "commit suicide" soon enough.

Yes, if he wants to live he’ll need to go back to his men.

[Woodchopper]

Chris O thread on how there isn’t much in Moscow capable of stopping Wagner: https://twitter.com/chriso_wiki/status/ ... 1zY-PW4R9w

This is crazy wrong surely.

You can't take Moscow with 20,000 troops. Imagine meeting Hitler in hell and telling him you conquered Moscow with 20,000. Hitler would get so angry he'd become a meme.

Putin remains popular in Russia, even if a lot of the support is grudging. He can still command the resources of a huge range of allies. Nobody is going to be invited in and a palace coup remains unlikely.

I don't see Putin at risk. He can trade a lot of space for time. It'll get bogged down. If Russians couldn't take Kyiv, Russians can't take Moscow.

The worry remains Putin crushing this too easily.

You can’t take a city with that many if you’re opposed by the population. But it’s not difficult if the population supports you or is indifferent.

What looks like a few hundred Wagnerites took over the centre of Rostov, population about one million. People were giving them food.

Suggestions that Wagner had popular support in Rostov
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1 ... 1zY-PW4R9w

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/statu ... 1zY-PW4R9w

[EACLucifer]

Stupid by Prigozhin. He'll be sidelined and then "commit suicide" soon enough.

Yeah, really stupid. Surely he can't think he's got away with it?

Prigozhin's not particularly weakened by this deal. If he can keep himself alive, then he gets to have another go when the situation is more favourable.

[EACLucifer]

Stupid by Prigozhin. He'll be sidelined and then "commit suicide" soon enough.

Yes, if he wants to live he’ll need to go back to his men.

Or bring those not going back to Ukraine with him. Or go off to meet them somewhere in Africa.

[EACLucifer]

The thing that stands out to me is Putin's weakness. He dithered. He eventually declared Prigozhin a traitor, and ordered force used to stop him. But then all that happened is the Kadyrovtsy made a big show of going to fight him in Rostov yet, as they always do, stopped before they got the the actual fighting, and aviation attacked the column, suffering one of their worst single days of losses. Other units didn't move, or didn't engage. That's why Putin had to accept the potato man's deal; the orders he'd given to stop Wagner by force weren't being followed.

As for Prigozhin, why did he accept the deal? My guess is that there would have been some fighting, and he was worried that with the suddenness of this and with Putin still alive, he'd be unpopular for bringing warfare to Moscow. He's probably waiting for a better opportunity to "save Russia from the stab in the back". He'd positioned himself against Shoigu and Gerasimov - the "save the beloved Tsar from the corrupt and treacherous Boyars" approach - so Putin opposing him made the PR side of it harder.

And what of Lukashenko, who reportedly brokered the deal. Prigozhin's meant to be going to Belarus. Is this Lukashenko getting a PMC to defend him and his potatoes against rebellion? He's immensely unpopular, and both Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and the Kastus Kalinouski regiment called on the people to expel Russians from Belarus. But of course what if Prigozhin realises how weak Belarus is, and blackmails or even topples Lukashenko?

All in all, we're going to see more warlordism sooner or later.

[TopBadger]

Crazy times.

Not sure of the wisdom of allowing Wagner to retreat to a country that doesn't like Putin and his Puppet, and apparently now has tactical nukes to be pilfered...

Putin might be handing Wagner more favorable conditions to rise against him...

[EACLucifer]

Seeing a mutiny go unpunished might have an interesting effect on troops in Ukraine given how poorly they are treated and how discipline in the Russian army relies on fear of brutality.

[Woodchopper]

Russian Air Force related channel Fighterbomber claims that military airfields (Millerovo, Rostov airfield and a Russian Air Force command post) in the Rostov region are still under the control of Wagner forces.

https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/ ... 1zY-PW4R9w

May not be correct, and if true lots of explanations, including that the Russian armed forces couldn’t get organised to take over control.

[jdc]

The thing that stands out to me is Putin's weakness.

Michael McFaul was talking about this and the 'rat trapped in the corner' line rang a vague bell for some reason: https://twitter.com/McFaul/status/1672930748742119426

Since the beginning of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, analysts & officials have claimed that Putin will never back down; that he needs a facing-saving win (i.e. Ukrainian territory) to end his war. Events yesterday completely undermined that assumption.

Instead of doubling down with more force to crush the mutiny, Putin accepted humiliation instead. He was the rat trapped in the corner that so many Putinologists have told us to fear. But he didn't lash out & go crazy. He negotiated & with a traitor.

[Woodchopper]

"They didn't hurt anyone, they didn't break anything. No one has the slightest claim to them - neither the Rostov resudents nor the military personnel of the Southern Military District and the law enforcement. So what are their questions? There are no complaints against them."

https://twitter.com/revishvilig/status/ ... 1zY-PW4R9w

Well apart from shooting down a few aircraft.

[Brightonian]

Wagner mutiny may have been an 'orchestrated event'

(from https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-russ ... eblog-body)

And there was me thinking 20,000 Wagner fighters took the wrong exit on the motorway.

But seriously, it's someone suggesting it all could have been Putin testing generals' loyalty:

We cannot dismiss the possibility that this was actually an orchestrated event by the Kremlin - perhaps to do some house cleaning of top officials, but also to test the loyalty of people in the military, of other officials.

[Martin Y]

Well if it was an act, hats off to them for shooting down their own aircraft to make if look realistic. Very method.

[Woodchopper]

Wagner mutiny may have been an 'orchestrated event'

(from https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-russ ... eblog-body)

And there was me thinking 20,000 Wagner fighters took the wrong exit on the motorway.

But seriously, it's someone suggesting it all could have been Putin testing generals' loyalty:

We cannot dismiss the possibility that this was actually an orchestrated event by the Kremlin - perhaps to do some house cleaning of top officials, but also to test the loyalty of people in the military, of other officials.

‘We cannot rule out the possibility’ is the weakest statement out there.

Could apply to pretty much anything.

[dyqik]

We cannot rule out the possibility that Putin is the reincarnation of Abraham Lincoln, playing the long game in defending the Union against those that would seek to undermine it.

[EACLucifer]

Either Putin, the Russian airforce, or both decided to take out their frustrations on Syrian civilians. Though unable to operate anywhere with air defence, the Russian air force is still able to operate over anti-Assad held areas of Syria. They bombed a market and a cat sanctuary, killing a number of civilians.

[Hunting Dog]

Crazy times.

Not sure of the wisdom of allowing Wagner to retreat to a country that doesn't like Putin and his Puppet, and apparently now has tactical nukes to be pilfered...

Putin might be handing Wagner more favorable conditions to rise against him...

That's the optimistic view. No-one else worried that it might all be a bit more orchestrated with the Kremlin than thought, leaving a 'deniable' independent force able to operate out of Belarus?

[jimbob]

Crazy times.

Not sure of the wisdom of allowing Wagner to retreat to a country that doesn't like Putin and his Puppet, and apparently now has tactical nukes to be pilfered...

Putin might be handing Wagner more favorable conditions to rise against him...

That's the optimistic view. No-one else worried that it might all be a bit more orchestrated with the Kremlin than thought, leaving a 'deniable' independent force able to operate out of Belarus?

Not really.

Because it's made the Russian strongman look ineffectual. So far the message is that you can get what you want by mutinying, and probably including the top job.

Putin could have just moved troops into Belarus.

[Woodchopper]

State-run RIA Novosti has now confirmed the Kommersant story that the case against Prigozhin isn't closed

https://twitter.com/rprose/status/16732 ... 1zY-PW4R9w

That didn’t take long

[TopBadger]

State-run RIA Novosti has now confirmed the Kommersant story that the case against Prigozhin isn't closed

https://twitter.com/rprose/status/16732 ... 1zY-PW4R9w

That didn’t take long

Putin's gonna Putin.

Perhaps we should start a sweepstake on the day of the year and method Prigozhin is dispatched...

[jimbob]

State-run RIA Novosti has now confirmed the Kommersant story that the case against Prigozhin isn't closed

https://twitter.com/rprose/status/16732 ... 1zY-PW4R9w

That didn’t take long

Putin's gonna Putin.

Perhaps we should start a sweepstake on the day of the year and method Prigozhin is dispatched...

Basically this video is getting better as a (short) explainer.

https://twitter.com/BDeMayo/status/1673034622286938112