The Invasion of Ukraine

[lpm]

Break up of USSR.

[Imrael]

The same graph for Ukraine is even more pronounced - to the extent that I'm wondering if something is up with the data, or some outside event affected it. Russian aggression is too recent to affect those cohorts.

Ukraine and Poland suffered a greater proportion of deaths in WWII than any other countries.

I may be being stupid here. But wouldnt WW2 population loss produce a narrowing in an older cohort - born in the mid-60's to mid-70's, and a similar but rather smaller narrowing around 20-25 years later. In Russia and even more so in Ukraine you can see the reduction in the older group - just about, but the group born around the end of the last century is even smaller. Poland doesnt really reflect that.

My only other thought is that the Ukraine population in the 20-30 range were born not too long after Ukrainian independence and maybe that depressed birth rates (Like a lot of childbearing-age young people left or something).

[IvanV]

I may be being stupid here. But wouldnt WW2 population loss produce a narrowing in an older cohort - born in the mid-60's to mid-70's, and a similar but rather smaller narrowing around 20-25 years later. In Russia and even more so in Ukraine you can see the reduction in the older group - just about, but the group born around the end of the last century is even smaller. Poland doesnt really reflect that.

My only other thought is that the Ukraine population in the 20-30 range were born not too long after Ukrainian independence and maybe that depressed birth rates (Like a lot of childbearing-age young people left or something).

I would say the latter is the real reason.

There was a sharp reduction in the birth rate in Russia, Ukraine, etc, after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Very sharp in Russia, down by about 40%, not quite as sharp in Ukraine. With the communist social systems collapsing, spreading of income distributions, bringing up children suddenly became a lot more expensive at the same time as the cost of living went up for a large fraction of the population. Ukraine remained more Soviet in its economy for longer, which might explain the smaller fall there. In each case, it did then recover to a degree as the economies recovered. This results precisely in a particular shortage of the present 20-30 yr old cohort.

Source:
Russia
Ukraine

[Imrael]

I may be being stupid here. But wouldnt WW2 population loss produce a narrowing in an older cohort - born in the mid-60's to mid-70's, and a similar but rather smaller narrowing around 20-25 years later. In Russia and even more so in Ukraine you can see the reduction in the older group - just about, but the group born around the end of the last century is even smaller. Poland doesnt really reflect that.

My only other thought is that the Ukraine population in the 20-30 range were born not too long after Ukrainian independence and maybe that depressed birth rates (Like a lot of childbearing-age young people left or something).

I would say the latter is the real reason.

There was a sharp reduction in the birth rate in Russia, Ukraine, etc, after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Very sharp in Russia, down by about 40%, not quite as sharp in Ukraine. With the communist social systems collapsing, spreading of income distributions, bringing up children suddenly became a lot more expensive at the same time as the cost of living went up for a large fraction of the population. Ukraine remained more Soviet in its economy for longer, which might explain the smaller fall there. In each case, it did then recover to a degree as the economies recovered. This results precisely in a particular shortage of the present 20-30 yr old cohort.

Source:
Russia
Ukraine

Thank you - interesting resource. (Got to messing about and noticed already-falling US rate took a down tick in 2008-2009. Probably a bit too much of an assumption to point to the 2008 recession, but could be)

[TopBadger]

Putin plans to visit Turkey... one wonders why a NATO member is allowing someone wanted for war crimes to visit them unless it's to make an arrest.

[EACLucifer]

Putin plans to visit Turkey... one wonders why a NATO member is allowing someone wanted for war crimes to visit them unless it's to make an arrest.

It'll be grain deal negotiations, but also Erdogan just can't help himself from playing both sides

[Woodchopper]

Putin plans to visit Turkey... one wonders why a NATO member is allowing someone wanted for war crimes to visit them unless it's to make an arrest.

It'll be grain deal negotiations, but also Erdogan just can't help himself from playing both sides

Yes, him and Orban.

[TimW]

I would say the latter is the real reason.

There was a sharp reduction in the birth rate in Russia, Ukraine, etc, after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Very sharp in Russia, down by about 40%, not quite as sharp in Ukraine. With the communist social systems collapsing, spreading of income distributions, bringing up children suddenly became a lot more expensive at the same time as the cost of living went up for a large fraction of the population. Ukraine remained more Soviet in its economy for longer, which might explain the smaller fall there. In each case, it did then recover to a degree as the economies recovered. This results precisely in a particular shortage of the present 20-30 yr old cohort.

Source:
Russia
Ukraine

Presumably, though, the demographics of the day would have fed into that too. You'd expect the birth rate to be going down sharply 30 years ago with a population like this:

1993.jpg (48.77 KiB) Viewed 11163 times

[lpm]

We've done this conversation before. It was the breakup of the USSR. There's books written about it.

[Sciolus]

More generally, it's well established that birth rates fall during times of economic and social uncertainty.

[monkey]

I would say the latter is the real reason.

There was a sharp reduction in the birth rate in Russia, Ukraine, etc, after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Very sharp in Russia, down by about 40%, not quite as sharp in Ukraine. With the communist social systems collapsing, spreading of income distributions, bringing up children suddenly became a lot more expensive at the same time as the cost of living went up for a large fraction of the population. Ukraine remained more Soviet in its economy for longer, which might explain the smaller fall there. In each case, it did then recover to a degree as the economies recovered. This results precisely in a particular shortage of the present 20-30 yr old cohort.

Source:
Russia
Ukraine

Presumably, though, the demographics of the day would have fed into that too. You'd expect the birth rate to be going down sharply 30 years ago with a population like this:
1993.jpg

Looking at this on for the USSR with smaller bins, it looks like the lag would be about 25 years (but that's not set in stone, obvs). The effect of WWII is particularly obvious, with a corresponding 2nd dip which looks like it could be large enough to cause one just after 89, coinciding with the turmoil after the collapse.

wiki clicky

[Woodchopper]

The Biden administration has hitherto claimed it could “walk and chew gum” at the same time: that is, help push back Russia’s onslaught while deterring China. Even as it has rallied European allies to help Ukraine defend itself, the administration has been weaving a variety of mini-alliances in the Indo-Pacific to constrain China. Mr Blinken and Mr Austin have been criss-crossing the Pacific this week to strengthen the geopolitical “latticework”. In Brisbane on July 29th they are expected to announce a further tightening of the military alliance with Australia, including the upgrading of military bases in the country, more deployments of American forces, deeper defence-industrial ties and greater military co-operation with other countries in the region.

Typically military supplies for Ukraine have been donated from American stocks—this week it announced its 43rd PDA for Ukraine, worth $400m and bringing the total to $24bn—whereas Taiwan has bought its arms under the lengthier Foreign Military Sales system. The Pentagon says the Taiwan package will not affect supplies for Ukraine. Yet Ukraine and Taiwan are now competing for American donations and, in some cases, the same weapons, too. The backlog of Taiwanese orders, which stands at more than $14bn, includes contracts for the Javelin missile, used to stop tanks, and the Stinger, used to bring down aircraft. Large quantities of both have been supplied to Ukraine.

In contrast with the PDAs for Ukraine, Congress has not appropriated funds needed to replenish weapons being given to Taiwan. In the short term the Pentagon can probably re-allocate funds internally, say congressional staffers. But for the new Taiwan policy to be sustainable, Congress will have to appropriate money in the next fiscal year. That, in turn, will depend on the tortuous budgeting process in a divided Congress, especially the House, where “America First” admirers of Donald Trump, who are sceptical if not hostile towards Ukraine, hold greater sway.

https://www.economist.com/united-states ... to-ukraine

The White House will ask Congress to fund arms for Taiwan as part of a supplemental budget request for Ukraine, in an effort to speed up the supply of weapons to the country amid the rising threat from China.

The Office of Management and Budget will include funding for Taiwan in the supplemental request as part of an effort to accelerate the provision of weapons, according to two people familiar with the plan.

[…]

According to the US-Taiwan Business Council, a pro-Taiwan lobby group, Taipei is still awaiting delivery of $23bn worth of weapon sales, including harpoon missiles and surveillance drones, that were approved by successive US administrations. Some sales were announced more than five years ago. US military commanders have frequently expressed frustration with the slow transfer of weapons to Taiwan to enhance its security.

[…]

The eventual congressional vote on the supplemental budget — which will focus predominantly on new military assistance for Ukraine — will be the first test of support for Kyiv in the current Congress.

A group of far-right House Republicans recently sought and failed to use the annual defence bill to restrict US support for Ukraine, a sign that even a small group of lawmakers could imperil or delay future assistance.

Packaging support for Taiwan, which has very strong bipartisan support in Congress, into the Ukraine budget may help the administration and pro-Kyiv Republicans win over members who might otherwise be opposed.

[…]

“Adding supplemental funding for Taiwan will put some House Republicans in a more difficult position since many who oppose Ukraine funding remain in favour of supporting Taiwan,” said Zack Cooper, an Asia security expert at the American Enterprise Institute think-tank.

https://www.ft.com/content/9807f021-a7d ... 05cbf4ba05

[Woodchopper]

Russia has doubled its 2023 defence spending target to more than $100 billion - a third of all public expenditure - a government document reviewed by Reuters showed, as the costs of the war in Ukraine spiral and place growing strain on Moscow's finances.

More at the link. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ru ... 023-08-04/

[dyqik]

Russia has doubled its 2023 defence spending target to more than $100 billion - a third of all public expenditure - a government document reviewed by Reuters showed, as the costs of the war in Ukraine spiral and place growing strain on Moscow's finances.

More at the link. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ru ... 023-08-04/

Only another $500bn to go to catch up to what the US has spent so far this year.

[EACLucifer]

Rouble continues to fall, worth less than a cent now. Russia's hiked interest rates to 12% to try and shore it up, but their economic position does not appear sustainable.

[Grumble]

Rouble continues to fall, worth less than a cent now. Russia's hiked interest rates to 12% to try and shore it up, but their economic position does not appear sustainable.

This is probably what actually wins the war for Ukraine.

[EACLucifer]

Colonel-General Gennady Zhidko snuffed it yesterday, reportedly after long-term illness. He was in charge of Russia's invasion forces last autumn, including during the famous 2nd Kharkiv Offensive that saw the collapse of Russian forces in Kharkiv Oblast.

[jimbob]

Russia being Russia

https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-m ... ead-troops

Russian military commissars in Crimea have reportedly come up with a new scam to get rich using the bodies of dead soldiers—by extorting the grieving family members.

That’s according to the human rights group Crimea SOS, which reported Thursday that military commissars have been lying to family members of soldiers killed in Ukraine about the whereabouts of their remains. While the bodies are already stored at a morgue in Simferopol, the group says, military officials tell families they have to pay an extra fee to have the remains retrieved from the battlefield.

[jimbob]

More on bad treatment and poor morale in even supposedly elite units.

No wonder they treat everyone else badly too.

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/ ... 42624?s=20

1/ Injuried Russian marines near Tokmak in the occupied part of Ukraine's Zaporizhzhya region were berated and beaten unconscious by their political officer when they asked for medical assistance. The incident was recorded and illustrates how Russia's political officers work.

[Martin Y]

Russian military has political officers? Have I woken up in Enemy at the Gates?

[Woodchopper]

Russian military has political officers? Have I woken up in Enemy at the Gates?

They were reintroduced in 2018.

Putin needed to tighten his control of the armed forces.

[EACLucifer]

Russians used a ballistic missile - reportedly an Iskander, which is accurate enough to know that they were aiming for what they hit - to hit a theatre in Chernihiv. Multiple dead, including at least one child.

Time to remove all restrictions on targetting military targets in Russia with western weapons, cut these attacks off at source.

[Woodchopper]

Missed this earlier.

Poll commissioned by CNN suggests that a majority of the US electorate:
- disapprove of Biden's handling of Russia and Ukraine
- believe that the US has done enough for Ukraine
- believe that Congress should not authorize additional funding.
- are worried that the war in Ukraine will lead to a broader war in Europe, Russian attacks elsewhere, or other threats against US national security.

While only a minority support providing weapons (though a majority supports providing intelligence and training).

This appears to be a dramatic reversal of previous sentiment. So its important to see if the result is replicated. If so it seems to me that the explanation isn't due to anything happening in UKraine or Russia etc, but because support for Ukraine has become a partisan issue with some high profile Republicans opposed, and then much of the electorate falls in line.

If these results are replicated expect it to be harder to get a majority vote in congress for more military aid.

Link to survey: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents ... raine-poll
Link to CNN article: https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/04/poli ... index.html

[EACLucifer]

Anyone wondering how things got so bad should look back a decade, to the massacre of over a thousand Syrians with Sarin gas.

It was right across one of Obama's so-called red lines, and yet there was no adequate response. The likes of Putin took that for permission.

[jimbob]

Anyone wondering how things got so bad should look back a decade, to the massacre of over a thousand Syrians with Sarin gas.

It was right across one of Obama's so-called red lines, and yet there was no adequate response. The likes of Putin took that for permission.

Absolutely. And we had had the model of Serbia beforehand to show what happens.