General Election '24

[Grumble]

Might work from home on 5th July

[IvanV]

Any other results we care about?

Mark Francois, as he has been one of the biggest agents provocateurs. Rayleigh and Wickford, though.

[lpm]

Any other results we care about?

Mark Francois, as he has been one of the biggest agents provocateurs. Rayleigh and Wickford, though.

Survation has Rayleigh and Wickford as

Lab: 35%
Con: 32%
Reform: 24%
Lib Dem: 5%
Green: 3%

[Gfamily]

Sunak might also be targeted with a heavy tactical voting campaign.

What would be more satisfying?
- Sunak losing his seat
- Sunak retaining his seat, but as leader of the third placed party, so he has to stay and can't disappear off to California.

Like thats going to happen... he'll lose and then quit politics. Even if he doesn't quit politics he'll lose and then be ousted as leader.

He's made it quite clear..
https://www.itv.com/news/2024-05-27/sim ... ion-defeat
Would he lie to us? Surely not.

[nekomatic]

Might work from home on 5th July

It's been several elections since I bothered staying up for the results, but I'm determined to this time.

I may also work from home on 5th July.

Any other results we care about?

Wycombe
Shrewsbury
Stretch goal: Yeovil
Very stretch goal: Christchurch

[jimbob]

Might work from home on 5th July

It's been several elections since I bothered staying up for the results, but I'm determined to this time.

I may also work from home on 5th July.

Any other results we care about?

Wycombe
Shrewsbury
Stretch goal: Yeovil
Very stretch goal: Christchurch

1997?

[TimW]

Round here: Fareham and Waterlooville / Suella

[lpm]

Wycombe
Shrewsbury
Stretch goal: Yeovil
Very stretch goal: Christchurch

Not all that stretchy?

Survation is the only post-Farage MRP and I'm not sure it's all that great. Would prefer YouGov but their MRP is now weeks out of date. Survation have:

Wycombe (Steve Baker)
CON 28
LAB 40

Shrewsbury (Daniel Kawczynski)
CON 25
LAB 45

Yeovil (Marcus Fysh)
CON 28
LD 40

Christchurch (Christopher Chope)
CON 32
LAB 26
LD 21
REF 14

[El Pollo Diablo]

If my constituency (Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard) goes blue, it will be the first time in about 60 years, so I'm pretty f.cking giddy about that. Going to do some canvassing soon I think.

[lpm]

Round here: Fareham and Waterlooville / Suella

Braverman is one of those seats forecast to have a tactical voting failure.

Top seats where CON wins thanks to LAB/LD/GRN screwing each other are:

Code: Select all

Constituency	CON	LAB	LD	GRN	REF
					
North Cotswolds	24	24	23	15	13
Honiton & Sidmouth	27	24	23	5	20
North Devon	27	23	24	15	11
Tewkesbury	28	24	24	14	9
Harpenden & Berkhamsted	28	28	21	6	15
Runnymede & Weybridge	29	28	27	6	9
Melksham & Devizes	29	21	22	17	12
Eastleigh	29	24	28	6	12
Sevenoaks	30	22	21	5	21
Tunbridge Wells	30	24	29	0	15
South Cotswolds	30	21	29	7	12
Spelthorne	30	30	23	5	10
Stratford-on-Avon	30	21	29	10	9
Hamble Valley	31	27	22	6	14
Mid Buckinghamshire	31	31	23	4	10
Christchurch	32	26	21	7	14
East Hampshire	32	22	22	5	17
Fareham & Waterlooville	33	24	26	4	11
North East Hampshire	34	24	25	5	11
Maidenhead	36	27	30	6	 -   
Mid Dorset & North Poole	37	23	33	6	 -   
East Grinstead & Uckfield	39	33	20	7	 -   

[nekomatic]

Not all that stretchy?

bl..dy hell, if all of those come off I will be very, very happy.

And very, very hung over.

[Grumble]

What are the rules? A shot for every cabinet member?

[Gfamily]

What are the rules? A shot for every cabinet member?

I'm not sure whether it should be:
£1 to a foodbank for every cabinet member ousted, £5 for every one who keeps their seat.
Or vice versa.

[IvanV]

He's made it quite clear..
https://www.itv.com/news/2024-05-27/sim ... ion-defeat
Would he lie to us? Surely not.

And David Cameron promised sincerely he would stay on as leader to implement of Brexit if he lost the referendum.

[lpm]

What are the rules? A shot for every cabinet member?

Good god man do you mean to kill us all?

[atled]

Are you including ex cabinent Ministers, if so add the member for Chingford,Spoiler:

Iain Duncan Smith

.
Survation figures are:

Con 30.3
Lab 57.4
LD 5.0
Green 3.4
other 3.6

[lpm]

Chingford is where the PJF are fighting the PFJ. That will give IDS the win. MRP models won't capture Shaheen's share.

[bagpuss]

Yesterday's Survation MRP has some weird results at the individual constituency level.

I was looking at my father's constituency, Reigate (Crispin Blunt is standing down - he would definitely have lost), and it predicts Labour winning on 27% of the vote, so many different directions the vote is split. I suppose that kind of thing can happen if it is hard for any individual candidate to gain the momentum to be the tactical vote. On Electoral Calculus, rather different.They have Con winning with 37%. But with Lab and LD almost equally split, how do the voters know which way to vote tactically? I don't know the local situation, and whether in practice there is a clear tactical vote there. I tried to vote tactically in the police commissioner election here in May, but on faint evidence - the claims of the candidates - I misjudged who was most likely to beat the Con.

This is precisely the problem I have here. Last poll results I saw for my (new) constituency was something like 33% Con, 25.8% LD, 25.1% Labour. Both LD and Lab say in their election material that they're the only party that can beat the Cons.

Tactical.vote have withdrawn their recommendation (presumably for LD) as they've been contradicted by polls. Stopthetories.vote also have us in the too-difficult box.

Getvoting.org, however, released their recommendation today, quoting Survation showing Tories and Labour neck and neck.

I don't believe it'll happen. I have never yet, in my entire life, voted for a winning candidate in any election and I can't believe that's going to change this time. The Tories will win, I'm sure, but with a much-reduced majority.

[atled]

I was looking forward to seeing that odious man getting the boot. Thanks for enlighting me lpm.

[Hunting Dog]

I don't believe it'll happen. I have never yet, in my entire life, voted for a winning candidate in any election and I can't believe that's going to change this time. The Tories will win, I'm sure, but with a much-reduced majority.

I'm in a similar position (worcesterchire west now, brentwood and ongar previously). Most of the predictive thingies say vote labour, but the lib-dems have a good candidate, who has been a very good local council member, so I'm completely torn.

[bagpuss]

Might work from home on 5th July

I'm considering taking the day off entirely, although if enough of the US team do that for different reasons, I might just rely on it being a very quiet day.

[dyqik]

Chingford is where the PJF are fighting the PFJ. That will give IDS the win. MRP models won't capture Shaheen's share.

I'm willing to bet 60% of Labour voters won't actually know who she is without "Labour" next to her name, but will want to kick Iain Duncan Smith. And then at least half of those who do know who she is will care about kicking the Tories out more than about what happened to her.

Political intrigue isn't of interest to the majority of people.

[philbo]

Round here: Fareham and Waterlooville / Suella

Braverman is one of those seats forecast to have a tactical voting failure.

Top seats where CON wins thanks to LAB/LD/GRN screwing each other are:

Code: Select all

Constituency	CON	LAB	LD	GRN	REF
					
North Cotswolds	24	24	23	15	13
Honiton & Sidmouth	27	24	23	5	20
North Devon	27	23	24	15	11
Tewkesbury	28	24	24	14	9
Harpenden & Berkhamsted	28	28	21	6	15
Runnymede & Weybridge	29	28	27	6	9
Melksham & Devizes	29	21	22	17	12
Eastleigh	29	24	28	6	12
Sevenoaks	30	22	21	5	21
Tunbridge Wells	30	24	29	0	15
South Cotswolds	30	21	29	7	12
Spelthorne	30	30	23	5	10
Stratford-on-Avon	30	21	29	10	9
Hamble Valley	31	27	22	6	14
Mid Buckinghamshire	31	31	23	4	10
Christchurch	32	26	21	7	14
East Hampshire	32	22	22	5	17
Fareham & Waterlooville	33	24	26	4	11
North East Hampshire	34	24	25	5	11
Maidenhead	36	27	30	6	 -   
Mid Dorset & North Poole	37	23	33	6	 -   
East Grinstead & Uckfield	39	33	20	7	 -   

I'm now in Mid-Bucks, a new seat, currently showing Labour in a strongish second to Greg "utter waste of space" Smith but confused by the 2019 Buckingham result that had a LibDem runner up. Both want to believe they can win, but there's a real worry the split will let him back in

Just for an extra bit of confusion, the Green candidate is also called Greg Smith.

[dyqik]

Isn't Tunbridge Wells where the Tory candidate is on tape saying he hates living in Tunbridge Wells?

Jn which case, I wouldn't rely on MRP models. That's one of the exceptions to most voters not caring about political intrigue.

[lpm]

Isn't Tunbridge Wells where the Tory candidate is on tape saying he hates living in Tunbridge Wells?

Jn which case, I wouldn't rely on MRP models. That's one of the exceptions to most voters not caring about political intrigue.

That Tory was kicked out and replaced by another candidate of no doubt equal intellect.