General Election '24

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Gfamily
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Re: General Election '24

Post by Gfamily »

noggins wrote: Thu Jun 27, 2024 3:02 pm If the fight for second biggest part is really close, can a couple of parties officially ally and add their seats together ?
It sort of got asked in an episode of The News Agents (not a regular 'listen', but I thought I'd try it out).
There, the question was what would happen if the second placed party split into factions, and one or other teamed up with the third/fourth/fifth parties.
Overall, the response was a bit of a shrug!

It was noted that the official opposition has to appoint a team of Shadow Ministers which takes about 60-70 decent operators, which might be tricky if there are less than 200 'other' party MPs.
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Re: General Election '24

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Wiki says the Speaker decides if there's a doubt. So much lols if the CON men are in a tie with the LibDems.

I don't know how a coalition of the opposite parties could have any practical meaning, given they are already in combination to oppose the government.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leader_of ... d_Kingdom)
Statutory leaders of the opposition from 1937

Leaders of the opposition in the two Houses of Parliament had been generally recognized and given a special status in Parliament for more than a century before they were mentioned in legislation.

Erskine May: Parliamentary Practice confirms that the office of the leader of the opposition was first given statutory recognition in the Ministers of the Crown Act 1937.

Section 5 states that "There shall be paid to the Leader of the Opposition an annual salary of two thousand pounds".

Section 10(1) includes a definition (which codifies the usual situation under the previous custom) "Leader of the Opposition" means that member of the House of Commons who is for the time being the leader in that House of the party in opposition to His Majesty's Government having the greatest numerical strength in that House".

The 1937 Act also contains an important provision to decide who is the Leader of the Opposition, if this is in doubt. Under section 10(3) "If any doubt arises as to which is or was at any material time the party in opposition to His Majesty's Government having the greatest numerical strength in the House of Commons, or as to who is or was at any material time the leader in that House of such a party the question shall be decided for the purposes of this Act by the Speaker of the House of Commons, and his decision, certified in writing under his hand, shall be final and conclusive".
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Re: General Election '24

Post by noggins »

The Official Opposition gets privileges the other opposition parties don't. eg 17 opposition days vs 3. And a salary and a car for the leader.
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Re: General Election '24

Post by dyqik »

A SNP/LD opposition coalition agreement that allowed the SNP to fill some of the shadow minister positions would probably be official enough to form an official opposition in the speaker's eyes - an agreement of that form is sufficient enough to form the government, after all (2010, 2017).
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Re: General Election '24

Post by lpm »

Not sure if SNP would want the job.

They aren't in Westminster to interrogate government ministers on English matters. They would try to only cover Scotland matters.

But I don't know what committees etc the SNP MPs currently attend.
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Re: General Election '24

Post by jimbob »

lpm wrote: Thu Jun 27, 2024 10:52 am
El Pollo Diablo wrote: Thu Jun 27, 2024 10:15 am This is useful for people wanting to see who to vote for: someone has collated all the MRP outcomes into a single handy table by constituency.

https://t.co/Q4JeIqWKxu
That is AWESOME.

I thought about trying it, then realised it was far too much work and I'm far too lazy.
Get voting seems to be the outlier. And recommends Labour far more than the others.
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Re: General Election '24

Post by jdc »

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Thu Jun 27, 2024 10:15 am This is useful for people wanting to see who to vote for: someone has collated all the MRP outcomes into a single handy table by constituency.

https://t.co/Q4JeIqWKxu
Shipley looks very red there. Really hoping Philip Davies wins his bet...

Normally a job for life, it's been Tory since 1950 with the exception of the Chris Leslie blip 1997-2005 and only 4 MPs in all that time.
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Re: General Election '24

Post by Woodchopper »

lpm wrote: Thu Jun 27, 2024 4:23 pm Not sure if SNP would want the job.

They aren't in Westminster to interrogate government ministers on English matters. They would try to only cover Scotland matters.

But I don't know what committees etc the SNP MPs currently attend.
Lots of work though for the SNP on all the UK wide policies, like defence, foreign affairs and economic policy.

Though I don’t see it happening.
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Re: General Election '24

Post by El Pollo Diablo »

Let's have a sken at the Friday morning numbers, then.
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Pretty much where everyone knows things are. The election has seen both parties drop a fair whack in terms of support, but roughly evenly, so the lead now is the same as the lead at the end of May. The Lit Dems have risen a touch, and overcome the Post Office dip they suffered, and are back where they were last November. If Reform are suffering a dip, it's only a couple of points tops. The most recent polls still show them at 16-17% support.

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In terms of comparison to 1992/97, polling for Labour is in 1992 levels. The question is about average polling error. Both elections show an overestimation of the Labour vote, but is that true today? Meanwhile, the Tories are in new and horrible territory. At this point relative to the 1997 election - the one where they suffered one of their largest defeats - they were 10 points higher in the polls. Ten. Maybe eleven. In 1992 they were 20 points higher. Polling error isn't going to save them this time.

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The strength of the Conservative lack of support is high now. They're at their lowest average in this parliament - lower than Truss. This week the proportion of sub-20% polls (icy blue on the chart) reached half of the polling numbers for them, which is the highest proportion. This isn't just a blip.

In terms of voting support and seat numbers, I'm tracking all the polls in this last week of the election campaign in terms of what they would mean for seat numbers if exactly correct. We have the following:

Lord Ashcroft: CON 19%, LAB 40%, LIB 10%, GRN 9%, REF 17%
YouGov: CON 18%, LAB 36%, LIB 15%, GRN 8%, REF 17%
BMG: CON 20%, LAB 42%, LIB 12%, GRN 7%, REF 16%
Redfield & Wilton: CON 19%, LAB 42%, LIB 11%, GRN 5%, REF 18%
Techne: CON 19%, LAB 41%, LIB 12%, GRN 5%, REF 17%

Electoral Calculus seat numbers for these polls are (in order of majority, national parties only):
Ashcroft: LAB 455, LIB 69, CON 57, REF 19, GRN 4 - majority 260
YouGov: LAB 440, LIB 682, CON 56, REF 22, GRN 4 - majority 230
BMG: LAB 461, LIB 73, CON 49, REF 17, GRN 4 - majority 272
R&W: LAB 464, LIB 74, CON 44, REF 19, GRN 3 - majority 278
Techne: LAB 481, LIB 76, CON 39, REF 7, GRN 3 - majority 312

(You can perhaps see why I was looking for some alternative projections - those Reform numbers seem high. Also, the Lib Dems are the opposition in all five outcomes). Tactical voting numbers are largely the same and make little difference so I won't post them. I also note that Electoral Calculus got some online grief for the high Reform numbers, which are lower today with the Techne forecast, so I wonder if they've tweaked their model a touch.

FT seat projections on those numbers:
Ashcroft: LAB 471, CON 75, LIB 60, REF 5, GRN 1 - majority 292
YouGov: LAB 438, LIB 98, CON 55, REF 7, GRN 1 - majority 226
BMG: LAB 466, CON 87, LIB 67, REF 2, GRN 1 - majority 282
R&W: LAB 473, CON 71, LIB 61, REF 5, GRN 1 - majority 296
Techne: LAB 469, LIB 74, CON 61, REF 3, GRN 1 - majority 288

So, yeah. Get your dinosaur-meteor gifs ready now.
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Re: General Election '24

Post by dyqik »

I think they have tweaked the model. Putting in the Yougov numbers, they now predict 14 seats for Reform.
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Re: General Election '24

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dyqik wrote: Fri Jun 28, 2024 1:18 pm I think they have tweaked the model. Putting in the Yougov numbers, they now predict 14 seats for Reform.
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Re: General Election '24

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Electoral Calculus seems obsessed with Reform.

Nobody else has anywhere close to those predictions.

The site EPD linked to comparing all the MRPs shows Electoral Calculus is dramatically out of step.
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lpm
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Re: General Election '24

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From EPD's fella

https://inglesp.github.io/apogee/

Different MRPs have Reform MPs at

6
0
2
19
0
1
3
0
0
7
3
5

Electoral Calculus is the 19.
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Re: General Election '24

Post by El Pollo Diablo »

Hey, I've been very careful to keep my fella off the interne... oh sorry
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Re: General Election '24

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lpm wrote: Fri Jun 28, 2024 1:31 pm Electoral Calculus seems obsessed with Reform.

Nobody else has anywhere close to those predictions.

The site EPD linked to comparing all the MRPs shows Electoral Calculus is dramatically out of step.
It does do something weird - e.g. looking at Clacton, it gives Farage 52% of the vote, while the range of the rest is 23% to 45%.

I suspect that they allow for much greater per constituency variation from the averages. Which might be correct for somewhere where someone like Farage is running getting national press, but probably isn't where the candidates aren't getting national or regional press.

But they do seem to be actively changing their model - the same percentages used to show 22 seats for Reform, and now show 14.
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Re: General Election '24

Post by Woodchopper »

dyqik wrote: Fri Jun 28, 2024 2:59 pm
lpm wrote: Fri Jun 28, 2024 1:31 pm Electoral Calculus seems obsessed with Reform.

Nobody else has anywhere close to those predictions.

The site EPD linked to comparing all the MRPs shows Electoral Calculus is dramatically out of step.
It does do something weird - e.g. looking at Clacton, it gives Farage 52% of the vote, while the range of the rest is 23% to 45%.

I suspect that they allow for much greater per constituency variation from the averages. Which might be correct for somewhere where someone like Farage is running getting national press, but probably isn't where the candidates aren't getting national or regional press.

But they do seem to be actively changing their model - the same percentages used to show 22 seats for Reform, and now show 14.
Reform would only get 0-3 MPs on circa 16 - 18 per cent of the vote if support for the party is very evenly spread out. But perhaps it isn't. If there is a correlation between support for Reform and support for Brexit then Reform votes should be concentrated in the East coast of England (from Kent to Wearside) and in parts of the Midlands, Yorkshire and Lancashire. If that were to happen then they might pick up ten or so more seats.

We'll find out in a week.
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Re: General Election '24

Post by lpm »

They are definitely concentrated in the racist east coast.

And Barnsley for some reason. WTF is going on in Barnsley?

Best lol outcome is Farage and Anderson losing, but some unknown random bloke winning them a single MP in an obscure constituency.
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Re: General Election '24

Post by philbo »

I hate schadenfreude, especially in myself, but detected it rather strongly when contemplating outcomes for Sunak in his constituency.. I mean, either he is going to suffer the humiliation of being the first(?) serving to lose his parliamentary seat; or he's going to have to hang around until his party kicks him out as leader, then resign his seat to slink off to spend more time with his share portfolio. I can't see him staying as a backbench opposition MP: no power, no ability to make any significant change to, well, anything. Where's the attraction in that? It has seemed for a while that he doesn't seem to want to win locally, I am sure he would far rather just get the hell out of Dodge and run away to relative obscurity in foreign parts than be continually reminded of defeat.
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Re: General Election '24

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lpm wrote: Fri Jun 28, 2024 3:35 pm They are definitely concentrated in the racist east coast.

And Barnsley for some reason. WTF is going on in Barnsley?

Best lol outcome is Farage and Anderson losing, but some unknown random bloke winning them a single MP in an obscure constituency.
I'll take just Farage losing of their big names, but them getting a few seats at the expense of Tories, and making the Lib Dems the official opposition.

There's several Tories who aren't any better than their second string candidates.
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Re: General Election '24

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https://x.com/edwinhayward/status/1807058529410232356
If you missed the story, when the Tories placed inside bets on the GE date, it moved the betting markets.

That tipped off Labour to the GE timing.

They rushed to buy up key ad space everywhere, eg the front page of the Sun website for the final week.

Another big Tory own goal.
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Re: General Election '24

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shpalman wrote: Sat Jun 29, 2024 5:49 pm https://x.com/edwinhayward/status/1807058529410232356
If you missed the story, when the Tories placed inside bets on the GE date, it moved the betting markets.

That tipped off Labour to the GE timing.

They rushed to buy up key ad space everywhere, eg the front page of the Sun website for the final week.

Another big Tory own goal.
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Re: General Election '24

Post by Gfamily »

Apparently Reform charged £5 for admission to today's rally in the NEC.
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Re: General Election '24

Post by geejaytee »

Apparently, Farage is no longer going to talk to the BBC* after a hostile-ish audience at the Question Time special yesterday: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ar ... e-audience

I wonder how long that will last?

*About bl..dy time
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Re: General Election '24

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Don't remember him complaining in 2016 when the same ukip and brexit faces were in the QT audience week after week and always got to ask questions.
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Re: General Election '24

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But, but, no wait, go back a bit.
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