General Election '24

[dyqik]

If there was any gerrymandering in the boundary changes, btw, that would probably make the all or nothing scenario more likely. Typically, if you are gerrymandering, you try to make all of your strong seats equally strong, to maximize the number of safe seats and the efficiency of your vote, while making the oppositions safe seats maximally safe (packing), to minimize the efficiency of their vote.

But when you then lose a chunk of your vote, all your seats become marginal at the same time.

[jimbob]

Starmer not helping himself by reminding us of his reticence to rejoin?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ar ... ys-starmer

Of all the economic damage the Tories created, he's not willing to consider undoing the most damaging aspect... really?

Nobody is going to vote tory because starmer isnt pro-eu enough.

So, which tranche of voters is more electorally significant?

a) A few pious rejoiner twits who might vote libdem in a tory/labour 2 horse race constituency

b) brexit voting tablod readers

It's about so much more than just keeping a subset of voters happy. If it were just that, they could've probably got away with rejoining being policy.

Rejoining or Being Norway would have meant a rerun of 2019, but with both big leaders being unpopular and boring. The right wing press would not have been as nice to them if Labour were to say "Yay! let's do another referendum!", or "The single market's good, yo. Let's be Norway."*. This tanks Starmers already limited popularity, but increases Sunak's, because he's now the Good Guy. It would have led to Reform not standing candidates in Tory/Labour marginals. The press might have even ignored Ed Davy Ed Davying. Labour would not be looking forward to a stonking great big majority, they'd end with a much smaller one with a split party. Meanwhile everyone would be arguing about Brexit while their world collapses around them (Yay Fun times are back again!).

Might not be the right thing to do, but it is the obvious choice for a Labour party that has decided that being in power is the most important thing.


*I could write a manifesto. "I should be PM, 'cos I got bear skills, innit."

Yup, we're not rejoining soon in the same way that I'm not marrying Angelina Jolie next year.

[Woodchopper]

Yup, we're not rejoining soon in the same way that I'm not marrying Angelina Jolie next year.

Yep. A lot of the rejoiner stuff I see on social media resembles the brexiters of a few years ago in a confident belief that the rest of Europe will of course do exactly what Britain asks it to do.

There is an enormous amount of work to be done before the UK can be taken seriously as a membership candidate. The last thing a new Labour government needs is years of debate about European policy.

[Woodchopper]

And the quote is:

Asked whether he could see any circumstances where the UK rejoined the single market or customs union within his lifetime, Starmer said: “No. I don’t think that that is going to happen. I’ve been really clear about not rejoining the EU, the single market or the customs union – or [allowing a] return to freedom of movement.”

He repeated, however, his view that Labour could achieve better trading arrangements with the EU in certain industries. “I do think we could get a better deal than the botched deal we got under Boris Johnson on the trading front, in research and development and on security,” he said.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ar ... ys-starmer

First, he carefully didn't rule out rejoining, just that he didn't think that it would happen in his lifetime. Even if people take the second sentence as a promise that Britain won't rejoin, its an easy promise to make. I don't see any feasible way that Britain could rejoin within a decade. Starmer is 61 now and any sensible leader will retire when they get to 70. It'll be someone else's problem.

Secondly, there may be some scope, as we've seen regarding Northern Ireland, to get some closer alignment on trade etc in specific areas. That's the path to rejoining. Take small steps and build the UK's credibility.

[lpm]

I've been on Twitter so you don't have to. Apparently we all need to vote. And take ID.

But saw this. Anyone in Exmouth and Exeter East? This Reform guy apparently was fined £2,000 for kicking a dog, plus he's an antisemite who shares David Icke videos. Oddly enough, Survation had this seat as a Reform win at one point - but in their final version it is blank, one of two constituencies where they have no forecast. YouGov has it as a four way marginal (Con 26, Lab 26, LD 21, Ref 17).

However enjoy him being cut off for time just as he's getting into why he has an animal abuse conviction.

https://x.com/adam_wishart/status/1804529619594330547

[lpm]

A "where are they now" from 2034

https://x.com/mrhenrymorris/status/1808749718865850836

[lpm]

My leaflet count:

LibDem 8
Conservative 1
Labour 0
Green 0
Reform 0

Can't win here bar charts: 5

The Labour candidate showed up at some hustings events, the Green did not. The Labour candidate posts on twitter and Facebook every couple of days but only on national/Starmer issues. The Green candidate is nowhere on social media that I could find.

The Reform guy has been pretty energetic on social media.

[bagpuss]

My leaflet count:

LibDem 1
Conservative 1
Labour 3 (including 1 delivered at local election time)
Green 1
Reform 1
Social Democrats 1
Climate Party 1

Can't win here bar charts: 3 or 4, I think - one on every LD and Labour leaflet with poss exception of that early one.

Labour candidate standing outside Polling Station when I went to vote, which is unheard of in these parts.


In other election news, some deity or other apparently doesn't want the people of Pitstone to vote, although they seem to have just missed...

[TimW]

Hamble Valley

Arse.

[IvanV]

What a lot of candidates I had to choose from. My fault for not checking in advance I suppose. What I had not been expecting was:

The George Galloway Appreciation Workers Party. They have put up well over 100 candidates, including in this rather undeprived bit of Buckinghamshire. I suppose if they'd put one up in High Wycombe, I might have understood that. I see the number 1 policy in their 10 point programme is "An end to imperialist wars and financial domination, starting with withdrawal from NATO." This is presumably the Chinese definition of imperialist, which means "people I don't like". It's only imperialist wars he wants to stop. He's cool about Putin's special military operations.

The Heritage Party. Somehow I have managed to overlook this right wing UKIP splinter group, who have put up around 40 candidates. They have policies like traditional family values, protecting children, cultural preservation, and cancelling the minimum wage. Clearly trying hard to split the right wing vote.

[Sciolus]

My constituency's incumbent is a particularly loathsome turd high-profile ex-cabinet minister and lanky streak of piss, which is presumably why the Official Monster Raving Loony Party are standing here. From their leaflet (yes, I got a leaflet from them), their main policy is:

I do declare a statutory brunch hour for all citizens between 11am and midday where all workplaces must pause and serve brunch. Disclaimer: policy subject to change based on AI chatbots.

[TimW]

Election Bingo for those of you who might stay up long enough:

https://www.bestforbritain.org/election_night_bingo

[Grumble]

I have to go to work tomorrow so no late night poll watching for me. I shall content myself with checking the news when I wake up about 6

[Sciolus]

Hopefully they also remind them what 14 years of Tory government has achieved: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cKAeO-5saqQ

At least Sunak gave us the progressive smoking ban to be his legacy. Oh, wait...

I mean, Cameron did a few creditable things to slightly offset his trashing the economy and everything else. I think we had a thread for it, but there's same-sex marriage, killing Blair's crazy ID card plan, stopping Heathrow expansion, increase overseas aid, probably a couple more things I've forgotten. But I really can't think of a single thing that May, Johnson, Sunak or the other one did that is to their credit. Nothing at all.

[lpm]

It's our old favourite...

...DRUMROLL...

Piers Corbyn!

Standing as an independent in Bermondsey.

Are you expecting it to be a bit bonkers? Well you'd be wrong. It's fabulously bonkers!

https://x.com/Piers_Corbyn/status/1808840116531511755

[lpm]

It's brilliant! I love it. This one is even better!

https://x.com/Piers_Corbyn/status/1808463384695750940

The custard pies on the clowns! The train announcement!

[TimW]

Election Bingo for those of you who might stay up long enough:

https://www.bestforbritain.org/election_night_bingo

Btw "Share a link to my card" may be borked, so far.

[TimW]

It's our old favourite...

...DRUMROLL...

Piers Corbyn!

As always happens I thought you were talking about Piers w.nker.

[El Pollo Diablo]

Well I just spent five hours leafleting for Labour to get out the vote. Certainly got my steps in. But I'm back now and ready to rock, analytically speaking. The final polls are in, and here we are. Seventeen in total since the start of yesterday:

Final polling intention numbers:

7-day Average
Con: 21.6%
Lab: 39.3%
Lib: 11.3%
Grn: 6.2%
Ref: 15.5%

Labour Lead: 17.7 points.

Range of Support in 7 days

GE24FinalWeek1.png (56.86 KiB) Viewed 2848 times

As you can see, according to the polls, the Lib Dems are almost certainly at around 11% support, and Labour at around 39%. The Tories are harder to place, and that's where things are uncertain. If they're at the higher end of around 24%, we're looking at more like a 1997. If they're at the lower end of 19%, it's going to be a fun night. Reform are around 16-17% apparently, but there's a wide spread of opinion. The Greens are the funny ones - they seem to have a last minute kick upwards - maybe a Labour left protest vote perhaps?

Seat Forecasts

GE24 Seat ForecastsPNG.PNG (87.67 KiB) Viewed 2848 times

The MRPs and Electoral Calculus both predict a catastrophe for the Conservatives - the best they do here is 126 seats, the worst 64 seats. There isn't a single scenario in either in which Labour get less than a 200 seat majority.

FT is more circumspect, however - the more recent polls (Norstat UK aside) suggest around a 200-seat majority. JL Partners' voting intention poll suggests around 1997-level again, but their MRP says it's much funnier than that.

I think that the standard Labour overestimation in the final week is actually already being priced in in these final polls, so I'm not minded to suggest much change. If I was to pick a single poll there which I think represents the most likely outcome, it'd be the BMG one - a 180-200 seat majority.

But let's see! I'll see you all tonight, weeing myself with excitement.

[Stranger Mouse]

If anyone is wondering if the Conservative campaign is going to get any better they just picked a social media fight with Martin Lewis ye night before the election which is being retweeted like a motherfunster.

https://x.com/martinslewis/status/18085 ... 07693?s=61

[Stranger Mouse]

It's brilliant! I love it. This one is even better!

https://x.com/Piers_Corbyn/status/1808463384695750940

The custard pies on the clowns! The train announcement!

Westlife are looking their age.

[Sciolus]

It's brilliant! I love it. This one is even better!

https://x.com/Piers_Corbyn/status/1808463384695750940

The custard pies on the clowns! The train announcement!

Deary me.

Also, in case you think it's just harmless barminess, it absolutely isn't.

[Grumble]

I assume all the election watchers are currently having a nice afternoon/evening snooze. Have a lovely night!

[dyqik]

I assume all the election watchers are currently having a nice afternoon/evening snooze. Have a lovely night!

Lunch for me...

[El Pollo Diablo]

Getting nervous now