US politics - support for Republicans and racial realignment

[Tristan]

Fascinating thread here on a realignment that's going on in US politics with increasing support for Republicans amongst Black and minority ethnic groups: https://x.com/jburnmurdoch/status/17671 ... 65639?s=20

As the US becomes less racially segregated socially conservative voters from racial groups who traditionally voted Democrat are becoming less worried about voting Republican. It seems that when your whole social group is from your own racial group then social norms are stronger and you'll keep voting Democrat like everyone else. But once you start mixing more with groups who already vote Republican (eg, whites) the social stigma of doing so drops and you can start voting Republican.

Worrying trend for the Democrats!

[dyqik]

Fascinating thread here on a realignment that's going on in US politics with increasing support for Republicans amongst Black and minority ethnic groups: https://x.com/jburnmurdoch/status/17671 ... 65639?s=20

As the US becomes less racially segregated socially conservative voters from racial groups who traditionally voted Democrat are becoming less worried about voting Republican. It seems that when your whole social group is from your own racial group then social norms are stronger and you'll keep voting Democrat like everyone else. But once you start mixing more with groups who already vote Republican (eg, whites) the social stigma of doing so drops and you can start voting Republican.

Worrying trend for the Democrats!

You really think that large numbers of minorities are going to vote for the party that is openly anti-Latino, anti-Black, anti-Asian and antisemitic, and that regularly espouses white-replacement theories?

[dyqik]

There's direct electoral evidence against the idea, as well - the south-west US, with a high latino population, is getting bluer over recent elections. All of the senators from AZ, CO, NM and NV caucus with the Democrats. Biden won them all.

And all of this claim relies on small sample polls of hard to poll groups, where selection bias is rising rapidly.

[IvanV]

Fascinating thread here on a realignment that's going on in US politics with increasing support for Republicans amongst Black and minority ethnic groups: https://x.com/jburnmurdoch/status/17671 ... 65639?s=20

As the US becomes less racially segregated socially conservative voters from racial groups who traditionally voted Democrat are becoming less worried about voting Republican. It seems that when your whole social group is from your own racial group then social norms are stronger and you'll keep voting Democrat like everyone else. But once you start mixing more with groups who already vote Republican (eg, whites) the social stigma of doing so drops and you can start voting Republican.

Worrying trend for the Democrats!

You really think that large numbers of minorities are going to vote for the party that is openly anti-Latino, anti-Black, anti-Asian and antisemitic, and that regularly espouses white-replacement theories?

The main statistical problem seems to be that the graph doesn't show a recent increase in R vote from minorities. It has been pretty much flat over the last 40 years. It did grow before then, though.

Trump achieved an increased vote from minorities in 2020 than he did in 2016. I think rather too much is being deduced from just 2 data points. Similarly large R votes from minorities occurred in 1984, 2000 and 2004. And these votes are around 25%. The arrows on the graph suggesting the vote rapidly approaching 50% doesn't seem to have much basis.

[monkey]

Fascinating thread here on a realignment that's going on in US politics with increasing support for Republicans amongst Black and minority ethnic groups: https://x.com/jburnmurdoch/status/17671 ... 65639?s=20

As the US becomes less racially segregated socially conservative voters from racial groups who traditionally voted Democrat are becoming less worried about voting Republican. It seems that when your whole social group is from your own racial group then social norms are stronger and you'll keep voting Democrat like everyone else. But once you start mixing more with groups who already vote Republican (eg, whites) the social stigma of doing so drops and you can start voting Republican.

Worrying trend for the Democrats!

You really think that large numbers of minorities are going to vote for the party that is openly anti-Latino, anti-Black, anti-Asian and antisemitic, and that regularly espouses white-replacement theories?

The main statistical problem seems to be that the graph doesn't show a recent increase in R vote from minorities. It has been pretty much flat over the last 40 years. It did grow before then, though.

Trump achieved an increased vote from minorities in 2020 than he did in 2016. I think rather too much is being deduced from just 2 data points. Similarly large R votes from minorities occurred in 1984, 2000 and 2004. And these votes are around 25%. The arrows on the graph suggesting the vote rapidly approaching 50% doesn't seem to have much basis.

Yes, my first thought was "that extrapolation is doing a lot of work."

[dyqik]

Fascinating thread here on a realignment that's going on in US politics with increasing support for Republicans amongst Black and minority ethnic groups: https://x.com/jburnmurdoch/status/17671 ... 65639?s=20

As the US becomes less racially segregated socially conservative voters from racial groups who traditionally voted Democrat are becoming less worried about voting Republican. It seems that when your whole social group is from your own racial group then social norms are stronger and you'll keep voting Democrat like everyone else. But once you start mixing more with groups who already vote Republican (eg, whites) the social stigma of doing so drops and you can start voting Republican.

Worrying trend for the Democrats!

You really think that large numbers of minorities are going to vote for the party that is openly anti-Latino, anti-Black, anti-Asian and antisemitic, and that regularly espouses white-replacement theories?

The main statistical problem seems to be that the graph doesn't show a recent increase in R vote from minorities. It has been pretty much flat over the last 40 years. It did grow before then, though.

Trump achieved an increased vote from minorities in 2020 than he did in 2016. I think rather too much is being deduced from just 2 data points. Similarly large R votes from minorities occurred in 1984, 2000 and 2004. And these votes are around 25%. The arrows on the graph suggesting the vote rapidly approaching 50% doesn't seem to have much basis.

The idea that Trump got an increased vote from minorities in 2020 is an extrapolation from selective polls and attempts to fit precinct level electoral results, and has error bars. Funnily enough, electoral data doesn't tell you exactly who voted for whom in the election.

[IvanV]

One specific minority that does seem to vote Republican at over 50%, reportedly, is Cubans. Because of their specific policies towards Cuba, in contrast to Obama's more cooperative approach. This may be a material factor in the current strength of the Republicans in Florida.

[dyqik]

One specific minority that does seem to vote Republican at over 50%, reportedly, is Cubans. Because of their specific policies towards Cuba, in contrast to Obama's more cooperative approach. This may be a material factor in the current strength of the Republicans in Florida.

Yeah, this is another major issue with the idea of racial realignment: treating Latinos as a uniform group who all think the same, when in reality there are multiple populations of Latino groups from different backgrounds and countries, some concentrated in different states.

Cubans are most prominent in Florida politics, Tejano in Texas, others elsewhere. If Cubans and Tejano are moving GOPwards, it makes little difference to swing states or election results - Texas and Florida are at best stretch goals for any Democrat campaign. But it'd show up here as "Latinos moving to the GOP".

[Al Capone Junior]

Given how much trump was and is determined to hate on Mexicans, I can't see why any Latinos would vote for him. But then stupid isn't just limited to white repugnicans when it comes to Texas.

I think it's pretty clear that trump has never actually met any actual Mexicans tho, bc anyone who has, understands how stupid it is to put Mexicans at the top of the fear list. I'd be more afraid they would invite me into their house for tacos when I really just wanted to play basketball (an actual problem that I have experienced in the real world) rather than them coming across the border hell bent on committing a bunch of crimes (a fictitious narrative dreamed up by ppl who just want to hate other ppl out loud, and don't really care who that is or whether their narrative is true).

[Stranger Mouse]

Fascinating thread here on a realignment that's going on in US politics with increasing support for Republicans amongst Black and minority ethnic groups: https://x.com/jburnmurdoch/status/17671 ... 65639?s=20

As the US becomes less racially segregated socially conservative voters from racial groups who traditionally voted Democrat are becoming less worried about voting Republican. It seems that when your whole social group is from your own racial group then social norms are stronger and you'll keep voting Democrat like everyone else. But once you start mixing more with groups who already vote Republican (eg, whites) the social stigma of doing so drops and you can start voting Republican.

Worrying trend for the Democrats!

You really think that large numbers of minorities are going to vote for the party that is openly anti-Latino, anti-Black, anti-Asian and antisemitic, and that regularly espouses white-replacement theories?

Probably quite a few will even if doesn’t make sense and between the industrial scale gerrymandering by the GOP and the effects of the electoral college it could easily have worrying effects.

[Tristan]

Fascinating thread here on a realignment that's going on in US politics with increasing support for Republicans amongst Black and minority ethnic groups: https://x.com/jburnmurdoch/status/17671 ... 65639?s=20

As the US becomes less racially segregated socially conservative voters from racial groups who traditionally voted Democrat are becoming less worried about voting Republican. It seems that when your whole social group is from your own racial group then social norms are stronger and you'll keep voting Democrat like everyone else. But once you start mixing more with groups who already vote Republican (eg, whites) the social stigma of doing so drops and you can start voting Republican.

Worrying trend for the Democrats!

You really think that large numbers of minorities are going to vote for the party that is openly anti-Latino, anti-Black, anti-Asian and antisemitic, and that regularly espouses white-replacement theories?

Probably quite a few will even if doesn’t make sense and between the industrial scale gerrymandering by the GOP and the effects of the electoral college it could easily have worrying effects.

Exactly. It doesn't have to be a majority or even that many for it to start having an impact.

Some of the thinking around this seems a bit complacent, almost like "Of course these people will never vote against their own interests (as we've assumed them to be)". People vote against what others would think of as being their best interests all the time. Brexit is a good example of that.

[dyqik]

You really think that large numbers of minorities are going to vote for the party that is openly anti-Latino, anti-Black, anti-Asian and antisemitic, and that regularly espouses white-replacement theories?

Probably quite a few will even if doesn’t make sense and between the industrial scale gerrymandering by the GOP and the effects of the electoral college it could easily have worrying effects.

Exactly. It doesn't have to be a majority or even that many for it to start having an impact.

Some of the thinking around this seems a bit complacent, almost like "Of course these people will never vote against their own interests (as we've assumed them to be)". People vote against what others would think of as being their best interests all the time. Brexit is a good example of that.

This isn't complacent thinking. It's basic skepticism of biased reporting of very weak data that contradicts actual election results.

[dyqik]

And now that voters are starting to engage with the election, we start to see signs that this is a mirage:

https://x.com/GregTSargent/status/18204 ... jk2qw&s=19

[Tristan]

Fascinating thread here on a realignment that's going on in US politics with increasing support for Republicans amongst Black and minority ethnic groups: https://x.com/jburnmurdoch/status/17671 ... 65639?s=20

As the US becomes less racially segregated socially conservative voters from racial groups who traditionally voted Democrat are becoming less worried about voting Republican. It seems that when your whole social group is from your own racial group then social norms are stronger and you'll keep voting Democrat like everyone else. But once you start mixing more with groups who already vote Republican (eg, whites) the social stigma of doing so drops and you can start voting Republican.

Worrying trend for the Democrats!

You really think that large numbers of minorities are going to vote for the party that is openly anti-Latino, anti-Black, anti-Asian and antisemitic, and that regularly espouses white-replacement theories?

Yes

[TopBadger]

Nice loop back... I for one didn't see this coming.

[Tristan]

Nice loop back... I for one didn't see this coming.

Most of the polls and the pundits didn’t seem to either. It’s was either “she’ll win comfortably” or “it’s on a knife edge”. Neither were remotely true.

[lpm]

Clearly we need to understand why polling fails with Trump himself, three times in a row, yet works the opposite direction with non Trump contests such as the 2022 mid terms.

[discovolante]

Well, only 16% of black people voted for Trump - 24% of black men and 9% of black women. https://www.usnews.com/news/national-ne ... 4-election

[Tristan]

Well, only 16% of black people voted for Trump - 24% of black men and 9% of black women. https://www.usnews.com/news/national-ne ... 4-election

For that article:
“Harris’s strongest support by far came among Black voters, where she received 83% of the vote compared to 16% for Trump. Overall however, Harris underperformed compared to President Joe Biden during the 2020 election, where he received 91% of the vote from Black men and women compared to 8% for Trump.”

I wasn’t arguing he was getting majorities in those groups. He did however increase his vote share, quite significantly in some cases. Latino men for example, but also others.

[discovolante]

Well, only 16% of black people voted for Trump - 24% of black men and 9% of black women. https://www.usnews.com/news/national-ne ... 4-election

For that article:
“Harris’s strongest support by far came among Black voters, where she received 83% of the vote compared to 16% for Trump. Overall however, Harris underperformed compared to President Joe Biden during the 2020 election, where he received 91% of the vote from Black men and women compared to 8% for Trump.”

I wasn’t arguing he was getting majorities in those groups. He did however increase his vote share, quite significantly in some cases. Latino men for example, but also others.

Yes, although I was comparing over ethnicities, rather than elections. It's quite a big contrast to say, Latino voters (primarily Latino men).

[bjn]

The major factor seems to be people not turning up to vote. Trumps numbers were down over a million as compared to 2020, but Harris's were down over 12 million. So more a swing from Democrats to not voting as opposed to from Democrats to Republican.

[Grumble]

The major factor seems to be people not turning up to vote. Trumps numbers were down over a million as compared to 2020, but Harris's were down over 12 million. So more a swing from Democrats to not voting as opposed to from Democrats to Republican.

It seems to me that last time there was a massive anti-Trump vote more than pro-Biden. That bloc didn’t done out this time in those numbers.

[Woodchopper]

The best source on who voted for whom is the exit polls produced at each election. They've got a huge sample and no concerns about how likely an interviewee is to vote. Of course there are issues, but there are with any other source as well.

Here's a summary from the last few elections, probably best to ignore small changes which could just be due to noise.

Exit polling.jpg (99.08 KiB) Viewed 1016 times

Overall, white voters have been pretty consistent.

Hispanic and Asian voters have become much more positive to Republicans. Black voters have also become more likely to vote Republican as well, but to a much lesser degree. Its possible that the 2012 may have been a high point given that Obama was the candidate.

If you're looking for an explanation, in many ways the voters who are persons of colour share similar demographics with core white Republican voters. People aren't defined by the colour of their skin. Many persons of colour are deeply religious and may vote for the party which is opposed to abortion. Others hold traditional views and may assume that the Republicans are the party which is more likely to support marriage. Others may run small businesses and vote for the party which is associated with low taxes and a dislike of regulation. These are just three examples, there will be many other.

Sources

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-e ... exit-polls
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/e ... al-results
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2016/r ... exit-polls
https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/how-groups-voted-2012

[Stranger Mouse]

The major factor seems to be people not turning up to vote. Trumps numbers were down over a million as compared to 2020, but Harris's were down over 12 million. So more a swing from Democrats to not voting as opposed to from Democrats to Republican.

I wonder what proportion of the non voters are pro Gaza activists who said “Biden/Harris have let Gaza down.Enjoy Trump!” and will now watch the guy who likes Muslim bans turn Gaza into a car park.

[dyqik]

The best source on who voted for whom is the exit polls produced at each election. They've got a huge sample and no concerns about how likely an interviewee is to vote. Of course there are issues, but there are with any other source as well.

Here's a summary from the last few elections, probably best to ignore small changes which could just be due to noise.

Exit polling.jpg

Overall, white voters have been pretty consistent.

Hispanic and Asian voters have become much more positive to Republicans. Black voters have also become more likely to vote Republican as well, but to a much lesser degree. Its possible that the 2012 may have been a high point given that Obama was the candidate.

If you're looking for an explanation, in many ways the voters who are persons of colour share similar demographics with core white Republican voters. People aren't defined by the colour of their skin. Many persons of colour are deeply religious and may vote for the party which is opposed to abortion. Others hold traditional views and may assume that the Republicans are the party which is more likely to support marriage. Others may run small businesses and vote for the party which is associated with low taxes and a dislike of regulation. These are just three examples, there will be many other.

Sources

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-e ... exit-polls
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/e ... al-results
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2016/r ... exit-polls
https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/how-groups-voted-2012

The major problem with exit polls is that they don't capture the absentee vote by mail/drop box in anything like that same way as in person voters, and may have trouble with early votes. Which is the entire of the electorate in some states, the majority in some swing states, and a small number in others.