US politics - support for Republicans and racial realignment
US politics - support for Republicans and racial realignment
Fascinating thread here on a realignment that's going on in US politics with increasing support for Republicans amongst Black and minority ethnic groups: https://x.com/jburnmurdoch/status/17671 ... 65639?s=20
As the US becomes less racially segregated socially conservative voters from racial groups who traditionally voted Democrat are becoming less worried about voting Republican. It seems that when your whole social group is from your own racial group then social norms are stronger and you'll keep voting Democrat like everyone else. But once you start mixing more with groups who already vote Republican (eg, whites) the social stigma of doing so drops and you can start voting Republican.
Worrying trend for the Democrats!
As the US becomes less racially segregated socially conservative voters from racial groups who traditionally voted Democrat are becoming less worried about voting Republican. It seems that when your whole social group is from your own racial group then social norms are stronger and you'll keep voting Democrat like everyone else. But once you start mixing more with groups who already vote Republican (eg, whites) the social stigma of doing so drops and you can start voting Republican.
Worrying trend for the Democrats!
Re: US politics - support for Republicans and racial realignment
You really think that large numbers of minorities are going to vote for the party that is openly anti-Latino, anti-Black, anti-Asian and antisemitic, and that regularly espouses white-replacement theories?Tristan wrote: ↑Mon Mar 11, 2024 4:39 pmFascinating thread here on a realignment that's going on in US politics with increasing support for Republicans amongst Black and minority ethnic groups: https://x.com/jburnmurdoch/status/17671 ... 65639?s=20
As the US becomes less racially segregated socially conservative voters from racial groups who traditionally voted Democrat are becoming less worried about voting Republican. It seems that when your whole social group is from your own racial group then social norms are stronger and you'll keep voting Democrat like everyone else. But once you start mixing more with groups who already vote Republican (eg, whites) the social stigma of doing so drops and you can start voting Republican.
Worrying trend for the Democrats!
Re: US politics - support for Republicans and racial realignment
There's direct electoral evidence against the idea, as well - the south-west US, with a high latino population, is getting bluer over recent elections. All of the senators from AZ, CO, NM and NV caucus with the Democrats. Biden won them all.
And all of this claim relies on small sample polls of hard to poll groups, where selection bias is rising rapidly.
And all of this claim relies on small sample polls of hard to poll groups, where selection bias is rising rapidly.
Re: US politics - support for Republicans and racial realignment
The main statistical problem seems to be that the graph doesn't show a recent increase in R vote from minorities. It has been pretty much flat over the last 40 years. It did grow before then, though.dyqik wrote: ↑Mon Mar 11, 2024 4:46 pmYou really think that large numbers of minorities are going to vote for the party that is openly anti-Latino, anti-Black, anti-Asian and antisemitic, and that regularly espouses white-replacement theories?Tristan wrote: ↑Mon Mar 11, 2024 4:39 pmFascinating thread here on a realignment that's going on in US politics with increasing support for Republicans amongst Black and minority ethnic groups: https://x.com/jburnmurdoch/status/17671 ... 65639?s=20
As the US becomes less racially segregated socially conservative voters from racial groups who traditionally voted Democrat are becoming less worried about voting Republican. It seems that when your whole social group is from your own racial group then social norms are stronger and you'll keep voting Democrat like everyone else. But once you start mixing more with groups who already vote Republican (eg, whites) the social stigma of doing so drops and you can start voting Republican.
Worrying trend for the Democrats!
Trump achieved an increased vote from minorities in 2020 than he did in 2016. I think rather too much is being deduced from just 2 data points. Similarly large R votes from minorities occurred in 1984, 2000 and 2004. And these votes are around 25%. The arrows on the graph suggesting the vote rapidly approaching 50% doesn't seem to have much basis.
Re: US politics - support for Republicans and racial realignment
Yes, my first thought was "that extrapolation is doing a lot of work."IvanV wrote: ↑Mon Mar 11, 2024 5:12 pmThe main statistical problem seems to be that the graph doesn't show a recent increase in R vote from minorities. It has been pretty much flat over the last 40 years. It did grow before then, though.dyqik wrote: ↑Mon Mar 11, 2024 4:46 pmYou really think that large numbers of minorities are going to vote for the party that is openly anti-Latino, anti-Black, anti-Asian and antisemitic, and that regularly espouses white-replacement theories?Tristan wrote: ↑Mon Mar 11, 2024 4:39 pmFascinating thread here on a realignment that's going on in US politics with increasing support for Republicans amongst Black and minority ethnic groups: https://x.com/jburnmurdoch/status/17671 ... 65639?s=20
As the US becomes less racially segregated socially conservative voters from racial groups who traditionally voted Democrat are becoming less worried about voting Republican. It seems that when your whole social group is from your own racial group then social norms are stronger and you'll keep voting Democrat like everyone else. But once you start mixing more with groups who already vote Republican (eg, whites) the social stigma of doing so drops and you can start voting Republican.
Worrying trend for the Democrats!
Trump achieved an increased vote from minorities in 2020 than he did in 2016. I think rather too much is being deduced from just 2 data points. Similarly large R votes from minorities occurred in 1984, 2000 and 2004. And these votes are around 25%. The arrows on the graph suggesting the vote rapidly approaching 50% doesn't seem to have much basis.
Re: US politics - support for Republicans and racial realignment
The idea that Trump got an increased vote from minorities in 2020 is an extrapolation from selective polls and attempts to fit precinct level electoral results, and has error bars. Funnily enough, electoral data doesn't tell you exactly who voted for whom in the election.IvanV wrote: ↑Mon Mar 11, 2024 5:12 pmThe main statistical problem seems to be that the graph doesn't show a recent increase in R vote from minorities. It has been pretty much flat over the last 40 years. It did grow before then, though.dyqik wrote: ↑Mon Mar 11, 2024 4:46 pmYou really think that large numbers of minorities are going to vote for the party that is openly anti-Latino, anti-Black, anti-Asian and antisemitic, and that regularly espouses white-replacement theories?Tristan wrote: ↑Mon Mar 11, 2024 4:39 pmFascinating thread here on a realignment that's going on in US politics with increasing support for Republicans amongst Black and minority ethnic groups: https://x.com/jburnmurdoch/status/17671 ... 65639?s=20
As the US becomes less racially segregated socially conservative voters from racial groups who traditionally voted Democrat are becoming less worried about voting Republican. It seems that when your whole social group is from your own racial group then social norms are stronger and you'll keep voting Democrat like everyone else. But once you start mixing more with groups who already vote Republican (eg, whites) the social stigma of doing so drops and you can start voting Republican.
Worrying trend for the Democrats!
Trump achieved an increased vote from minorities in 2020 than he did in 2016. I think rather too much is being deduced from just 2 data points. Similarly large R votes from minorities occurred in 1984, 2000 and 2004. And these votes are around 25%. The arrows on the graph suggesting the vote rapidly approaching 50% doesn't seem to have much basis.
Re: US politics - support for Republicans and racial realignment
One specific minority that does seem to vote Republican at over 50%, reportedly, is Cubans. Because of their specific policies towards Cuba, in contrast to Obama's more cooperative approach. This may be a material factor in the current strength of the Republicans in Florida.
Re: US politics - support for Republicans and racial realignment
Yeah, this is another major issue with the idea of racial realignment: treating Latinos as a uniform group who all think the same, when in reality there are multiple populations of Latino groups from different backgrounds and countries, some concentrated in different states.IvanV wrote: ↑Tue Mar 12, 2024 8:49 amOne specific minority that does seem to vote Republican at over 50%, reportedly, is Cubans. Because of their specific policies towards Cuba, in contrast to Obama's more cooperative approach. This may be a material factor in the current strength of the Republicans in Florida.
Cubans are most prominent in Florida politics, Tejano in Texas, others elsewhere. If Cubans and Tejano are moving GOPwards, it makes little difference to swing states or election results - Texas and Florida are at best stretch goals for any Democrat campaign. But it'd show up here as "Latinos moving to the GOP".
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Re: US politics - support for Republicans and racial realignment
Given how much trump was and is determined to hate on Mexicans, I can't see why any Latinos would vote for him. But then stupid isn't just limited to white repugnicans when it comes to Texas.
I think it's pretty clear that trump has never actually met any actual Mexicans tho, bc anyone who has, understands how stupid it is to put Mexicans at the top of the fear list. I'd be more afraid they would invite me into their house for tacos when I really just wanted to play basketball (an actual problem that I have experienced in the real world) rather than them coming across the border hell bent on committing a bunch of crimes (a fictitious narrative dreamed up by ppl who just want to hate other ppl out loud, and don't really care who that is or whether their narrative is true).
I think it's pretty clear that trump has never actually met any actual Mexicans tho, bc anyone who has, understands how stupid it is to put Mexicans at the top of the fear list. I'd be more afraid they would invite me into their house for tacos when I really just wanted to play basketball (an actual problem that I have experienced in the real world) rather than them coming across the border hell bent on committing a bunch of crimes (a fictitious narrative dreamed up by ppl who just want to hate other ppl out loud, and don't really care who that is or whether their narrative is true).
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Re: US politics - support for Republicans and racial realignment
Probably quite a few will even if doesn’t make sense and between the industrial scale gerrymandering by the GOP and the effects of the electoral college it could easily have worrying effects.dyqik wrote: ↑Mon Mar 11, 2024 4:46 pmYou really think that large numbers of minorities are going to vote for the party that is openly anti-Latino, anti-Black, anti-Asian and antisemitic, and that regularly espouses white-replacement theories?Tristan wrote: ↑Mon Mar 11, 2024 4:39 pmFascinating thread here on a realignment that's going on in US politics with increasing support for Republicans amongst Black and minority ethnic groups: https://x.com/jburnmurdoch/status/17671 ... 65639?s=20
As the US becomes less racially segregated socially conservative voters from racial groups who traditionally voted Democrat are becoming less worried about voting Republican. It seems that when your whole social group is from your own racial group then social norms are stronger and you'll keep voting Democrat like everyone else. But once you start mixing more with groups who already vote Republican (eg, whites) the social stigma of doing so drops and you can start voting Republican.
Worrying trend for the Democrats!
I’ve decided I should be on the pardon list if that’s still in the works
Re: US politics - support for Republicans and racial realignment
Exactly. It doesn't have to be a majority or even that many for it to start having an impact.Stranger Mouse wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2024 2:40 pmProbably quite a few will even if doesn’t make sense and between the industrial scale gerrymandering by the GOP and the effects of the electoral college it could easily have worrying effects.dyqik wrote: ↑Mon Mar 11, 2024 4:46 pmYou really think that large numbers of minorities are going to vote for the party that is openly anti-Latino, anti-Black, anti-Asian and antisemitic, and that regularly espouses white-replacement theories?Tristan wrote: ↑Mon Mar 11, 2024 4:39 pmFascinating thread here on a realignment that's going on in US politics with increasing support for Republicans amongst Black and minority ethnic groups: https://x.com/jburnmurdoch/status/17671 ... 65639?s=20
As the US becomes less racially segregated socially conservative voters from racial groups who traditionally voted Democrat are becoming less worried about voting Republican. It seems that when your whole social group is from your own racial group then social norms are stronger and you'll keep voting Democrat like everyone else. But once you start mixing more with groups who already vote Republican (eg, whites) the social stigma of doing so drops and you can start voting Republican.
Worrying trend for the Democrats!
Some of the thinking around this seems a bit complacent, almost like "Of course these people will never vote against their own interests (as we've assumed them to be)". People vote against what others would think of as being their best interests all the time. Brexit is a good example of that.
Re: US politics - support for Republicans and racial realignment
This isn't complacent thinking. It's basic skepticism of biased reporting of very weak data that contradicts actual election results.Tristan wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2024 5:06 pmExactly. It doesn't have to be a majority or even that many for it to start having an impact.Stranger Mouse wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2024 2:40 pmProbably quite a few will even if doesn’t make sense and between the industrial scale gerrymandering by the GOP and the effects of the electoral college it could easily have worrying effects.
Some of the thinking around this seems a bit complacent, almost like "Of course these people will never vote against their own interests (as we've assumed them to be)". People vote against what others would think of as being their best interests all the time. Brexit is a good example of that.
Re: US politics - support for Republicans and racial realignment
And now that voters are starting to engage with the election, we start to see signs that this is a mirage:
https://x.com/GregTSargent/status/18204 ... jk2qw&s=19
https://x.com/GregTSargent/status/18204 ... jk2qw&s=19
Re: US politics - support for Republicans and racial realignment
Yesdyqik wrote: ↑Mon Mar 11, 2024 4:46 pmYou really think that large numbers of minorities are going to vote for the party that is openly anti-Latino, anti-Black, anti-Asian and antisemitic, and that regularly espouses white-replacement theories?Tristan wrote: ↑Mon Mar 11, 2024 4:39 pmFascinating thread here on a realignment that's going on in US politics with increasing support for Republicans amongst Black and minority ethnic groups: https://x.com/jburnmurdoch/status/17671 ... 65639?s=20
As the US becomes less racially segregated socially conservative voters from racial groups who traditionally voted Democrat are becoming less worried about voting Republican. It seems that when your whole social group is from your own racial group then social norms are stronger and you'll keep voting Democrat like everyone else. But once you start mixing more with groups who already vote Republican (eg, whites) the social stigma of doing so drops and you can start voting Republican.
Worrying trend for the Democrats!
Re: US politics - support for Republicans and racial realignment
Nice loop back... I for one didn't see this coming.
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Re: US politics - support for Republicans and racial realignment
Clearly we need to understand why polling fails with Trump himself, three times in a row, yet works the opposite direction with non Trump contests such as the 2022 mid terms.
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Re: US politics - support for Republicans and racial realignment
Well, only 16% of black people voted for Trump - 24% of black men and 9% of black women. https://www.usnews.com/news/national-ne ... 4-election
To defy the laws of tradition is a crusade only of the brave.
Re: US politics - support for Republicans and racial realignment
For that article:discovolante wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 7:36 amWell, only 16% of black people voted for Trump - 24% of black men and 9% of black women. https://www.usnews.com/news/national-ne ... 4-election
“Harris’s strongest support by far came among Black voters, where she received 83% of the vote compared to 16% for Trump. Overall however, Harris underperformed compared to President Joe Biden during the 2020 election, where he received 91% of the vote from Black men and women compared to 8% for Trump.”
I wasn’t arguing he was getting majorities in those groups. He did however increase his vote share, quite significantly in some cases. Latino men for example, but also others.
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Re: US politics - support for Republicans and racial realignment
Yes, although I was comparing over ethnicities, rather than elections. It's quite a big contrast to say, Latino voters (primarily Latino men).Tristan wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 8:27 amFor that article:discovolante wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 7:36 amWell, only 16% of black people voted for Trump - 24% of black men and 9% of black women. https://www.usnews.com/news/national-ne ... 4-election
“Harris’s strongest support by far came among Black voters, where she received 83% of the vote compared to 16% for Trump. Overall however, Harris underperformed compared to President Joe Biden during the 2020 election, where he received 91% of the vote from Black men and women compared to 8% for Trump.”
I wasn’t arguing he was getting majorities in those groups. He did however increase his vote share, quite significantly in some cases. Latino men for example, but also others.
To defy the laws of tradition is a crusade only of the brave.
Re: US politics - support for Republicans and racial realignment
The major factor seems to be people not turning up to vote. Trumps numbers were down over a million as compared to 2020, but Harris's were down over 12 million. So more a swing from Democrats to not voting as opposed to from Democrats to Republican.
Re: US politics - support for Republicans and racial realignment
It seems to me that last time there was a massive anti-Trump vote more than pro-Biden. That bloc didn’t done out this time in those numbers.
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Re: US politics - support for Republicans and racial realignment
The best source on who voted for whom is the exit polls produced at each election. They've got a huge sample and no concerns about how likely an interviewee is to vote. Of course there are issues, but there are with any other source as well.
Here's a summary from the last few elections, probably best to ignore small changes which could just be due to noise.
Overall, white voters have been pretty consistent.
Hispanic and Asian voters have become much more positive to Republicans. Black voters have also become more likely to vote Republican as well, but to a much lesser degree. Its possible that the 2012 may have been a high point given that Obama was the candidate.
If you're looking for an explanation, in many ways the voters who are persons of colour share similar demographics with core white Republican voters. People aren't defined by the colour of their skin. Many persons of colour are deeply religious and may vote for the party which is opposed to abortion. Others hold traditional views and may assume that the Republicans are the party which is more likely to support marriage. Others may run small businesses and vote for the party which is associated with low taxes and a dislike of regulation. These are just three examples, there will be many other.
Sources
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-e ... exit-polls
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/e ... al-results
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2016/r ... exit-polls
https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/how-groups-voted-2012
Here's a summary from the last few elections, probably best to ignore small changes which could just be due to noise.
Overall, white voters have been pretty consistent.
Hispanic and Asian voters have become much more positive to Republicans. Black voters have also become more likely to vote Republican as well, but to a much lesser degree. Its possible that the 2012 may have been a high point given that Obama was the candidate.
If you're looking for an explanation, in many ways the voters who are persons of colour share similar demographics with core white Republican voters. People aren't defined by the colour of their skin. Many persons of colour are deeply religious and may vote for the party which is opposed to abortion. Others hold traditional views and may assume that the Republicans are the party which is more likely to support marriage. Others may run small businesses and vote for the party which is associated with low taxes and a dislike of regulation. These are just three examples, there will be many other.
Sources
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-e ... exit-polls
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/e ... al-results
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2016/r ... exit-polls
https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/how-groups-voted-2012
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Re: US politics - support for Republicans and racial realignment
I wonder what proportion of the non voters are pro Gaza activists who said “Biden/Harris have let Gaza down.Enjoy Trump!” and will now watch the guy who likes Muslim bans turn Gaza into a car park.
I’ve decided I should be on the pardon list if that’s still in the works
Re: US politics - support for Republicans and racial realignment
The major problem with exit polls is that they don't capture the absentee vote by mail/drop box in anything like that same way as in person voters, and may have trouble with early votes. Which is the entire of the electorate in some states, the majority in some swing states, and a small number in others.Woodchopper wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 12:30 pmThe best source on who voted for whom is the exit polls produced at each election. They've got a huge sample and no concerns about how likely an interviewee is to vote. Of course there are issues, but there are with any other source as well.
Here's a summary from the last few elections, probably best to ignore small changes which could just be due to noise.
Exit polling.jpg
Overall, white voters have been pretty consistent.
Hispanic and Asian voters have become much more positive to Republicans. Black voters have also become more likely to vote Republican as well, but to a much lesser degree. Its possible that the 2012 may have been a high point given that Obama was the candidate.
If you're looking for an explanation, in many ways the voters who are persons of colour share similar demographics with core white Republican voters. People aren't defined by the colour of their skin. Many persons of colour are deeply religious and may vote for the party which is opposed to abortion. Others hold traditional views and may assume that the Republicans are the party which is more likely to support marriage. Others may run small businesses and vote for the party which is associated with low taxes and a dislike of regulation. These are just three examples, there will be many other.
Sources
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-e ... exit-polls
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/e ... al-results
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2016/r ... exit-polls
https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/how-groups-voted-2012