Are we headed for a civil war shortly in a W European country?

[IvanV]

Prof David Betz, Professor of War in the Modern World at Kings College London, argues that civil war - for example on the scale of the Northern Ireland Troubles - is likely in the near future in at least one W European democracy in the near future due to growing cultural disagreements between tribes. He cites riots between Hindus and Muslims in Leicester, and rioting and sabotage in France.

This recent brief article in the Church Times gives some overview and reaction to it.

But really you need to look at the 2-part article by the man himself in Military Strategy Magazine, from 2023, if you are interested. They aren't very long.
Part 1
Part 2
Part 2 includes a statistical calculation that it is practically certain somewhere in W Europe, inc UK, in the next 5 years, from that starting point of 2023. The calculation part of it, showing 95% chance in the next 5 years (starting 2023) at least, doesn't look plausible to me. Even if we agree with the base data, which he admits is uncertain, he is multiplying probabilities as if they are independent, and they aren't. It's like when you look at the weather forecast, saying that there is a 10% chance of rain in every hour for a long time forward. This doesn't translate into a near certainty of rain in that period, because the probabilities are not independent.

You can also watch him presenting a 100min youtube vid on the point. There are others. I haven't watched any.

The friend who drew this to my attention said to me that Betz was describing a likely recent future civil war between Muslims and others. Though I can't see it says that in the article: there is reference to Islam-related disorder, but also MAGA-type disorder. He also expressed his alarm - and as supporting evidence - that an "Islamist" has just been chosen for Home Secretary, Shabana Mahmood. I see that she has described herself as a devout Muslim, which is core to everything she does. But she doesn't wear a headscarf, is highly educated, does a very powerful job. So I really wonder if the description "Islamist", which I usually associate with misogynist types, is really appropriate. I call him my "rich friend", and he was mentioning how various of his own rich friends were leaving this sinking ship of the UK, taking their money with him. Though they all seem to be going to places of equal or higher risk according to that article. His own current preference for going to Brazil, where one of his sons lives, is also a risky place, at least until we are sure that the current rather dangerous worse-than-MAGA situation there has resolved.

I have a tacit don't-discuss-Islamic-issues arrangement with this particular friend, and he usually respects that in the reverse direction. So when he surprisingly started it I just listened politely. Also these were unusual points and not ones I could easily refute on the spot.

Any thoughts?

[TopBadger]

...doesn't look plausible to me...

Me neither.

Civil war in the US I could believe... given the political polarization and quantity of guns. But even that is a longshot I think, and far from 95% certainty.

[TopBadger]

What with Russia sending drones into Poland I think a conventional war is more likely than a civil one.

[TopBadger]

...doesn't look plausible to me...

Me neither.

Civil war in the US I could believe... given the political polarization and quantity of guns. But even that is a longshot I think, and far from 95% certainty.

The killing of Chris Kirk (someone I'd not heard of until now) has certain MAGA folks agitating for a civil war.

Having not heard of him, I'll admit I still look at instant disliking to him just on the basis of his "prove me wrong" banner because that's not how burden of proof works.

[bob sterman]

In the UK we've got the "flagging" movement vandalising roundabouts - and now tomorrow a "Unite the Kingdom" "free speech" rally in London all orchestrated by Tommy Robinson (Stephen Christopher Yaxley-Lennon).

The "Unite the Kingdom" rally has sod all to do with free speech and has a blatantly racist agenda - deporting immigrants to win back "britain for the british".

Amusingly (and pathetically) across social media you can find posts from british folk who live abroad - supposedly flying back to join the demo - i.e. people who are immigrants in other countries!!!

[Lew Dolby]

amuses me that these types don't recognise the flip side of "only brits can live in Britain" which is, logically, "Brits can only live in Britain".

If every other country takes the same line, that's the logical outcome.

[Opti]

I don't think it will be in Spain. At least I hope not. I've just got my "Tarjeta de Identificación de Extranjero Permanente" (TIE). I think EU rules would prevent me being thrown out without good reason. There are still quite a few Spanish people who remember what it was like living in an autocratic state.

I wouldn't be surprised if some of the more moronic 'expats' (immigrants) here are going back for the Yaxley-Lennon show.

[dyqik]

I wouldn't be surprised if some of the more moronic 'expats' (immigrants) here are going back for the Yaxley-Lennon show.

How many sob stories do you think we'll see in the press about how some of them couldn't get back into Spain after?

I bet there are some that are skirting immigration rules somehow.

[Opti]

There may still be a few 'illegals' over here, but Brexit ended their cushy little number, not paying tax anywhere, working in the black economy here, but there was a big clampdown on them straight after it was finalised.
There's not many left without a TIE. Many found they couldn't prove income requirement, healthcare coverage etc. so they got slung out. The policia and Guardia Civil were rounding them up come Jan '21.

They're not missed - most of them were working cash in hand as cowboy builders. Then there were the gangsters.
By the way, I have to carry my TIE card at all times. It's not officially a form of ID, but it's accepted universally as such. I have no worries about carrying a card. Legally, I'm required to carry my passport too but the cops accept my notarized passport copy.