Trump 2.0

[IvanV]

Trump says the US is going to run Venezuela for a while now. How? He might have inserted a special force, that was able to capture Maduro with the assistance of locational information provided by a spy. And dropped a few bombs on a small selection of military sites. But there is no sign of US personnel on the ground taking over, as is the usual requirement of a coup. Nor suggestion of further military action.

Meanwhile, in the Venezuela outside Trump's brain, the pro-regime mayor of Caracas has been sufficiently in control to put a pro-Maduro demonstration on the streets. And the leading regime politicians and shortlist of likely successors to Maduro - Delcy Rodríguez (VP), Diosdado Cabello (Interior Minister), Vladimir Padrino (Defence Minister) - have appeared on television appearing to be in control. Local people observe the rest of the regime is still there, merely minus the president. There is no sign of an uprising. The opposition leader who escaped to Norway to accept her Nobel Prize is still stuck in Norway.

Ultimately you wonder if the main point of this is to paint targets on other country leaders who fail to kowtow to Trump, showing that they may pay individually for that slight. Meanwhile, the Honduran case shows the other side of it - even drug dealers can be forgiven if they deliver what Trump wants. So Trump has now put on display both his carrot and his stick.

[bob sterman]

Trump says the US is going to run Venezuela for a while now. How? He might have inserted a special force, that was able to capture Maduro with the assistance of locational information provided by a spy. And dropped a few bombs on a small selection of military sites. But there is no sign of US personnel on the ground taking over, as is the usual requirement of a coup. Nor suggestion of further military action.

Meanwhile, in the Venezuela outside Trump's brain, the pro-regime mayor of Caracas has been sufficiently in control to put a pro-Maduro demonstration on the streets. And the leading regime politicians and shortlist of likely successors to Maduro - Delcy Rodríguez (VP), Diosdado Cabello (Interior Minister), Vladimir Padrino (Defence Minister) - have appeared on television appearing to be in control. Local people observe the rest of the regime is still there, merely minus the president. There is no sign of an uprising. The opposition leader who escaped to Norway to accept her Nobel Prize is still stuck in Norway.

Ultimately you wonder if the main point of this is to paint targets on other country leaders who fail to kowtow to Trump, showing that they may pay individually for that slight. Meanwhile, the Honduran case shows the other side of it - even drug dealers can be forgiven if they deliver what Trump wants. So Trump has now put on display both his carrot and his stick.

I reckon they've bought Rodríguez - and her cooperation will fit with your final paragraph. Trump has been saying disparaging things about the opposition.

Or perhaps he'll appoint Gianni Infantino

[IvanV]

I reckon they've bought Rodríguez - and her cooperation will fit with your final paragraph. Trump has been saying disparaging things about the opposition.

Or perhaps he'll appoint Gianni Infantino

The Supreme Court, which is the obedient tool of the regime, has appointed Delcy Rodríguez interim president. She is quoted as saying she will do what Trump wants. Doubtless the better to avoid Trump taking her out too. I expect there is a now a loud banging of stable doors to be heard across Venezuela, but it may take a little while to secure them adequately.

Probably easier to do a dirty deal with a compromised politician than with a principled opposition politicians, as in Honduras.

The US has had a few attempts to do a deal with Venezuela in recent years, usually because of all that oil, whose extraction has considerably fallen since foreign oil companies and their expertise were kicked out. The Venezuelan authorities have a consistent recent history of reneging on every one, pretty much entirely, and generally quite quickly. The last one with Joe Biden was very obviously reneged on within a few days. But it took a few months for the US to give up on it and return to the prior sanctions. So doubtless Venezuelan kleptocrats did nicely out of that temporary relaxation of sanctions.

We shall see if Trump can get a deal to stick in the longer term, now he has a hostage, and a reputation.

Doubtless there are many who can do mischief while pointing at Trump's hypocrisy (Puppet Regime satirical animated short on youtube). Indeed we wonder if it might encourage some others to do something similar. What if China kidnapped the president of Taiwan?

[IvanV]

In other Trump hypocrisy news, the Iranians are quoting his deployment of the National Guard to US cities, to justify their own robust approach to "rioting".

[monkey]

The Supreme Court, which is the obedient tool of the regime, has appointed Delcy Rodríguez interim president. She is quoted as saying she will do what Trump wants. Doubtless the better to avoid Trump taking her out too. I expect there is a now a loud banging of stable doors to be heard across Venezuela, but it may take a little while to secure them adequately.

Probably easier to do a dirty deal with a compromised politician than with a principled opposition politicians, as in Honduras.

Another possibility is that a deal with Trump was done prior to the raid as a way of removing Maduro without involving the army. This is a suspicion I've had since learning about the mole the US used. They must've been pretty high up the chain if what the USians are saying is true. It makes sense if Maduro's number 2's see the only way to stay in power and corruption is to do a deal with Trump which Maduro seemed Very Unlikely to do.

So possibly fewer sounds of closing doors too late and more "Hello, is this the horse insurance company? Something terrible has happened... Yes, this is my sincere voice and my premiums are up to date, I made sure of that."

But I know nothing and am just speculating. If I'm right, I doubt we'll find out any time soon.

[dyqik]

The US has had a few attempts to do a deal with Venezuela in recent years, usually because of all that oil, whose extraction has considerably fallen since foreign oil companies and their expertise were kicked out. The Venezuelan authorities have a consistent recent history of reneging on every one, pretty much entirely, and generally quite quickly. The last one with Joe Biden was very obviously reneged on within a few days. But it took a few months for the US to give up on it and return to the prior sanctions. So doubtless Venezuelan kleptocrats did nicely out of that temporary relaxation of sanctions.

It's worth noting that there are estimates that the Venezuelan oil industry is extremely outdated, and mostly produces low grade heavy oil that is largely uneconomic to drill for in the current economic environment. It needs tens to hundreds of billions of dollars of investment and probably a decade to see any return at all.

It's also likely that Trump doesn't understand any of that.

[IvanV]

Another possibility is that a deal with Trump was done prior to the raid as a way of removing Maduro without involving the army. This is a suspicion I've had since learning about the mole the US used. They must've been pretty high up the chain if what the USians are saying is true. It makes sense if Maduro's number 2's see the only way to stay in power and corruption is to do a deal with Trump which Maduro seemed Very Unlikely to do.

So possibly fewer sounds of closing doors too late and more "Hello, is this the horse insurance company? Something terrible has happened... Yes, this is my sincere voice and my premiums are up to date, I made sure of that."

But I know nothing and am just speculating. If I'm right, I doubt we'll find out any time soon.

It is indeed entirely possible. But I think to do a deal that actually happens, you have to be dealing with, or get through to the army.

To date, the deals with Venezuela have all been a farce, Venezuela did the appearance of a deal to get a bit of a breathing space. But there is a huge amount of money to be made from a deal that gets respected.

Dyqik is right that oil investment takes a long time to produce returns, and what remains of the Venezuelan oil industry is very outdated. Everyone is very aware of the political risks to large and slow investments in such countries. A deal that can be made and enforced for a sufficiently long period of time the oil companies are willing to invest is likely prove rather difficult. But maybe there are some shorter term opportunities. Chevron has a long history in Venezuela, was last to be kicked out, and has returned to Venezuela with one of the recent deals. They have apparently remained there somehow despite that deal being substantially reneged on - the regime must be getting enough out of it. Chevron don't appear to be making large investments, as Venezuelan production remains in the doldrums. But they might be maintaining stuff they originally built to keep it ticking over at minimum expense. The Venezuelans reportedly had a huge spare part problem, they might have partly relieved. So maybe it is easier for Chevron to get faster returns to make this worth while for them, without making large commitments at high political risk, if the risk environment is sufficiently modified for a time.

[IvanV]

In fact I'm wrong, Chevron never left Venezuela (Euronews historical article), but converted its operations to a minority share of a joint venture with PDVSA. Oil companies were required either to experience full expropriation of their assets, or covert to JV, and Chevron was the only one taking the JV terms.

Chevron takes an agreed share of physical oil, in part to cover its costs of operation, and in part as PDVSA gradually paying down its debt to Chevron. PDVSA has a debt in part because of the JV creation, and in part because Venezuela prevented the oil companies from accessing their profits for a period before the JV deal. Chevron operate in this way due to a licence from the US government, in effect allowing it to breach sanctions.

In theory Chevron is paying nothing to Venezuela under this arrangement, but it does enable PDVSA to profit from its share of the joint asset, doubtless more effectively than the fully expropriated fields where it doesn't have a foreign company to assist it in running them.

PDVSA is a known major source of looted funds in Venezuela. Though in recent years there has been a bit of in-fighting and various internal figures were brought down.

[monkey]

Another possibility is that a deal with Trump was done prior to the raid as a way of removing Maduro without involving the army. This is a suspicion I've had since learning about the mole the US used. They must've been pretty high up the chain if what the USians are saying is true. It makes sense if Maduro's number 2's see the only way to stay in power and corruption is to do a deal with Trump which Maduro seemed Very Unlikely to do.

So possibly fewer sounds of closing doors too late and more "Hello, is this the horse insurance company? Something terrible has happened... Yes, this is my sincere voice and my premiums are up to date, I made sure of that."

But I know nothing and am just speculating. If I'm right, I doubt we'll find out any time soon.

It is indeed entirely possible. But I think to do a deal that actually happens, you have to be dealing with, or get through to the army.

But this way you don't need the whole army, just a couple or so generals to convince the others that they're still going to get paid and not much is going to change as far as they're concerned.

[dyqik]

You're assuming that there is a plan beyond getting some retweets.

Meanwhile, Trump is talking about drone strikes in Mexico.

[Boustrophedon]

So the Venezuelan president was kidnapped from his armoured well protected fortress-like head quarters.
Mar-a-Lago looks a like a holiday camp by comparison.
Just saying.

[Martin Y]

...And there is certainly scope for a negotiation. I wonder if there has been one behind the scenes.

I wouldn't be surprised if only token attacks were made and the abduction was waved through.

Thanks for the various insights posted in this thread. I had been confused about Trump suddenly blowing cold about the opposition but if it is indeed the Venezuelan army that really pulls the strings then a deal may well have been easier to strike with Maduro's number two compliantly pushed into the presidential office.

[Martin_B]

The US has had a few attempts to do a deal with Venezuela in recent years, usually because of all that oil, whose extraction has considerably fallen since foreign oil companies and their expertise were kicked out. The Venezuelan authorities have a consistent recent history of reneging on every one, pretty much entirely, and generally quite quickly. The last one with Joe Biden was very obviously reneged on within a few days. But it took a few months for the US to give up on it and return to the prior sanctions. So doubtless Venezuelan kleptocrats did nicely out of that temporary relaxation of sanctions.

It's worth noting that there are estimates that the Venezuelan oil industry is extremely outdated, and mostly produces low grade heavy oil that is largely uneconomic to drill for in the current economic environment. It needs tens to hundreds of billions of dollars of investment and probably a decade to see any return at all.

It's also likely that Trump doesn't understand any of that.

The Venezuelan oil industry uses old technology, but if it's working it's not outdated (merely not the most up-to-date, which very little in the oil industry is as things get built for a life of 25-40 years!)

Also, Venezuelan oil does tend to be heavy oil (more longer-chain hydrocarbons) but that actually makes it useful as lubrication oils, tars and bitumens can be extracted from it. A lot of the oil the USA is producing now is light (OK for making petrols and such, but not for heavy ends) and so Venezuelan oil is actually attractive to the American market.

[dyqik]

You're assuming that there is a plan beyond getting some retweets.

Meanwhile, Trump is talking about drone strikes in Mexico.

Oh, and attacks on Cuba, another attack on Venezuela (which suggests that this isn't a coup, just complete incompetence), Colombia, Iran and Greenland (which would be a de facto attack on NATO that would trigger Article 5)

[Brightonian]

Washington Post:

Two people close to the White House said the president’s lack of interest in boosting Machado, despite her recent efforts to flatter Trump, stemmed from her decision to accept the Nobel Peace Prize, an award the president has openly coveted.

Although Machado ultimately said she was dedicating the award to Trump, her acceptance of the prize was an “ultimate sin,” said one of the people.

Woe betide anyone other than Trump who accepts this year's Table Tennis Peace Prize.

[IvanV]

The Venezuelan oil industry uses old technology, but if it's working it's not outdated (merely not the most up-to-date, which very little in the oil industry is as things get built for a life of 25-40 years!)

Only some of it is working, which is why they are only producing 1/3 of what they used to produce, despite fields being very far from exhausted.

[TopBadger]

... and Greenland (which would be a de facto attack on NATO that would trigger Article 5)

Which could possibly mean the practical end of NATO, unless the other NATO members actually answered the call to assist against the US.

Either way (NATO folds, or EU military is preoccupied with Greenland) - that would be a huge win for Putin.

Most likely the remainder of NATO would take no military or other action (other than muted complaints), pass it off as a temporary political point of confusion and hope that the next elections in the US are free and fair and that a future sensible US president restored the preceding order.

[IvanV]

So the Venezuelan president was kidnapped from his armoured well protected fortress-like head quarters.
Mar-a-Lago looks a like a holiday camp by comparison.
Just saying.

The story is that Maduro has a steel fortified saferoom in the basement of the fortified compound. But it proved no use to him. He entered it, but he was unable to secure the door. It is not clear why he was unable secure the door - insufficient time, incompetence, broken or what. But according to Trump, the US troops knew about it and had brought suitable equipment to break into it quickly if required.

Maduro's compound was a fortress designed with security in mind, and Mar-a-Lago isn't that. Doubtless it now has substantial security, but would be breached by the kind of forces sent to Venezuela. But the main risk to US presidents would seem to be small plots - as seen in the assassinations and failed assassination attempts of various US presidents over history - rather than some large-scale organised military special forces operation, that is more plausible in the kind of country prone to military coups.

[IvanV]

... and Greenland (which would be a de facto attack on NATO that would trigger Article 5)

Which could possibly mean the practical end of NATO, unless the other NATO members actually answered the call to assist against the US.

The Greenland thing seems very silly to me. Trump clearly wants the legacy of achieve some great deal like the Alaska purchase. But Greenland is worth far less, and the US can get what it wants without taking control of it.

The US has more or less unlimited permission to establish military bases there. It currently has one. But previously had it had several, and closed all but the one remaining.

The Greenland authorities have been hawking out opportunities to mine there for a long time. But little has come of it, because it's among the highest cost locations on the planet to try to operate in. Typically you are looking at sites with no infrastructure, no worthwhile local labour force, and horrible weather. And operators will suffer European level monitoring in terms of their labour conditions and environmental effects. The main advantage is low political risk. Recently a gold mine opened at Nalunaq in SW Greenland, and I think that is the only large mine established and brought into operation in recent times. There are approved projects for a gemstone mine, a graphite mine and an aluminium ore mine, but these are yet to open. Permission for a uranium mine was denied, because of pollution risk. As far as I am aware, these are all projects proposed by "western" interests. There has been much talk about rare earths, etc, but little actual action, because of the high costs.

The only advantage to Trump of taking over Greenland would seem to be the ability to exclude others from operating there. But the Chinese aren't trying to operate there. It really isn't their kind of thing, and the Greenlanders are suspicious of them. The Chinese would prefer to manage political risk in low cost countries, and avoid having their labour and environmental practices monitored. So it is probably very low down China's shopping list. Maybe that will change one day.

[IvanV]

It occurs to me that if the US successfully prosecuted Maduro for something, and put him in prison, it might set a precedent that could be very annoying to Trump.

China and Russia are calling Maduro's abduction to face trial, an illegal act. If some other country abducted Trump, and put him on trial for money laundering or something, Trump would doubtless say that was an illegal act.

A criminal trial in New York of Maduro might run into some difficulty. The DoJ, now run by people who do what Trump says, rather than having any competence to run the DoJ in the usual sense, have been following Trump orders to charge people Trump doesn't like. Several of these trials have collapsed at an early stage due to absence of anything resembling a case. So I don't know what wonderful charges and evidence they have for Maduro, but it is hard to believe there is much, especially given the fantasy nature of what Trump talks about in relation to him.

Trump says Maduro runs an organised crime group called the Cartel del Sol. In reality, this name is a Venezuelan slang term for the criminal and kleptocratic networks in the armed forces, not an actual organised crime group. It seems very unlikely that you can pin specific criminal acts of the nature of drug running on Maduro. We make the traditional citation of Al Capone at this point, who we all know did actually run an organised crime group, but the only thing they could pin on him was tax evasion. Mickey Cohen is a more recent similar case. So prosecuting people for running organised crime groups tends to be difficult, and this is likely to be compounded when they are foreign and don't actually exist.

Doubtless Maduro has kleptocratic gains and hides them somewhere. So maybe he can be done for money laundering. But money laundering is very hard to prosecute, especially if people do it well, and generally they do these days. Jordan Belfort, the "Wolf of Wall Street", got done for it because he employed an incompetent Swiss money launderer to do it for him, one incompetent enough to be convicted by the Swiss authorities for it. People are generally cleverer about it these days.

Since Trump has been corruptly gaining massively from his own presidency, putting another president on trial for money laundering looks like the kind of thing Trump would find very inconvenient.

[Grumble]

As a commenter on Bluesky pointed out, the US administration effectively says that it can prosecute other states heads for criminal activity but not their own.