COVID-19

[shpalman]

Or to put it another way, Italy was at 229 total infections on the 25th of February and as of yesterday was at 7375 total infections with 650 in intensive care.

What's the UK's ICU capacity, roughly?

Little over 4,000 - and there are other problems with ICU capacity...
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... -hospitals

The doubling time for active infections in Italy was 3.5 days last week and about 10% of those are in the ICU. Italy would hit 40000 active infections on the 17th of March if that continues. So if the UK has a similar growth of cases you'll be there in three weeks.

[AMS]

Or to put it another way, Italy was at 229 total infections on the 25th of February and as of yesterday was at 7375 total infections with 650 in intensive care.

What's the UK's ICU capacity, roughly?

Little over 4,000 - and there are other problems with ICU capacity...
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... -hospitals

The doubling time for active infections in Italy was 3.5 days last week and about 10% of those are in the ICU. Italy would hit 40000 active infections on the 17th of March if that continues. So if the UK has a similar growth of cases you'll be there in three weeks.

Interesting interview on PM just now, saying the UK's cases are still mostly imported. They said they are using a network of GP surgeries as "spotters" (presumably running CV tests on all comers?) and are not yet seeing much local transmission.

[Opti]

I'm most worried about getting back to the UK, then back here with my guitars and associated stuff tbh. That's what's killing me right now. Yeah, selfish, eh? But I can get work if I can get my tools. Innit.

[lpm]

This is going to provide some good illustrations of unknown unknowns. Odd knock-on impact that nobody could have predicted - such as who would have said a pandemic would cause riot deaths in Italian prisons?

[shpalman]

Today's numbers - 4636 total infections of which 3916 are still infected - doesn't fit with the idea of a SIR model which is peaking (limited to something like a susceptible population of 6-7000), but rather with the idea that the exponential growth switched to a longer time constant 5 days ago as the containment measures took effect. So with that in mind the prediction for tomorrow's total infections would be about 5700.

Today's number is actually 5883, out of which 5061 are currently infected. So yeah it's still going up exponentially.

I don't remember what my prediction was but today it's 7375 (out of which 6387 are currently infected). The exponential growth predicts about 9000 tomorrow.

Actual number: 9172 (of which 7985 are currently infected). Estimating 11000 tomorrow then. I'm going to work from home for a couple of days.

[lpm]

Any idea as to what the testing lag is? In the UK I think they turn them round fast.

But a two day lag in test results would mean Monday's figures are Saturday's tests. In the US I think some tests are taking 3-4 days because they keep failing.

The total lag is the sum of various components:

1) Infectious to feeling ill
2) Feeling ill to consulting doctor
3) Consulting doctor to doctor ordering a test
4) Ordering a test to taking test
5) Taking test to getting test result
6) Getting test result to central govt compiling of data and release

Anyone want to guess at how many days all this takes? And how they will change as it worsens e.g. longer lag to get tested or get results?

My guess is the USA has far longer lags - reports of people begging for days to be tested.

[shpalman]

Northern Italy's patient 1, "Mattia", is finally off artificial respiration.

[JellyandJackson]

According to the Beeb https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51807781 people who show even “minor” symptoms of a respiratory tract infection may be asked to self-isolate in the next few days. What’s the difference between an RTI and a cough and cold? Answers on a postcard to the usual address, please.

I’m also repeatedly telling myself that the mortality rate in young children is zero (so far). Kid C had a 3 day admission with a viral wheeze in November, (no history of asthma) and I’m worrying about him either being ill with Covid19 or, more likely, being ill with wheeze and needing to be in a hospital which is struggling to cope.

[Woodchopper]

Little over 4,000 - and there are other problems with ICU capacity...
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... -hospitals

The doubling time for active infections in Italy was 3.5 days last week and about 10% of those are in the ICU. Italy would hit 40000 active infections on the 17th of March if that continues. So if the UK has a similar growth of cases you'll be there in three weeks.

Interesting interview on PM just now, saying the UK's cases are still mostly imported. They said they are using a network of GP surgeries as "spotters" (presumably running CV tests on all comers?) and are not yet seeing much local transmission.

My worry is that the people who come from abroad are more likely to go to a doctor. Someone with flu symptoms who hasn't been abroad may not bother to see a GP.

[mediocrity511]

According to the Beeb https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51807781 people who show even “minor” symptoms of a respiratory tract infection may be asked to self-isolate in the next few days. What’s the difference between an RTI and a cough and cold? Answers on a postcard to the usual address, please.

I’m also repeatedly telling myself that the mortality rate in young children is zero (so far). Kid C had a 3 day admission with a viral wheeze in November, (no history of asthma) and I’m worrying about him either being ill with Covid19 or, more likely, being ill with wheeze and needing to be in a hospital which is struggling to cope.

They really need to write some workable guidelines for how self isolation is going to work in families now. Given how there still seem to be massive amounts of coughs and colds circulating round us, it's going to hit a lot of families. I want to be told what is reasonable to do with an ill child and how to minimise risk when they can't be isolated.

[bob sterman]

I’m also repeatedly telling myself that the mortality rate in young children is zero (so far). Kid C had a 3 day admission with a viral wheeze in November, (no history of asthma) and I’m worrying about him either being ill with Covid19 or, more likely, being ill with wheeze and needing to be in a hospital which is struggling to cope.

It's not just the mortality rate that's low - young kids can be almost symptomless. Check out this case report...

A Well Infant with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) with High Viral Load
https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-ar ... 01/5766416

The only symptom...

"During this viremic phase, he had 1 temperature record of 38.5°C which normalized within 1 hour."

Something you wouldn't even notice if you weren't taking the infant's temperature hourly!

[kerrya1]

The doubling time for active infections in Italy was 3.5 days last week and about 10% of those are in the ICU. Italy would hit 40000 active infections on the 17th of March if that continues. So if the UK has a similar growth of cases you'll be there in three weeks.

Interesting interview on PM just now, saying the UK's cases are still mostly imported. They said they are using a network of GP surgeries as "spotters" (presumably running CV tests on all comers?) and are not yet seeing much local transmission.

My worry is that the people who come from abroad are more likely to go to a doctor. Someone with flu symptoms who hasn't been abroad may not bother to see a GP.

I ended up in the out of hours clinic on Saturday night as the result of flu-like symptoms coupled with bad asthma , despite symptoms I wasn't tested as hadn't been to any high-risk areas. I'm confident that I almost certainly don't have Corona, and I got the treatment I needed, but I was expecting to be tested just as a random rocking up with similar symptoms during a period when they are doing lots of surveillance.

[Little waster]

I was supposed to be flying to california for the annual Society of Toxicology meeting.

It got cancelled today 72 hours out. BA are providing free flight changes... for everyone who booked their flight 6 hours after I did. Well of course.

I suppose for extra lulz it could have been an infectious disease conference.

[Bird on a Fire]

I was supposed to be flying to california for the annual Society of Toxicology meeting.

It got cancelled today 72 hours out. BA are providing free flight changes... for everyone who booked their flight 6 hours after I did. Well of course.

I suppose for extra lulz it could have been an infectious disease conference.

"The Society for Epidemiological Forecasting regrets to announce the cancellation of this week's meeting due to unforeseeable circumstances."

[AMS]

I’m also repeatedly telling myself that the mortality rate in young children is zero (so far). Kid C had a 3 day admission with a viral wheeze in November, (no history of asthma) and I’m worrying about him either being ill with Covid19 or, more likely, being ill with wheeze and needing to be in a hospital which is struggling to cope.

It's not just the mortality rate that's low - young kids can be almost symptomless. Check out this case report...

A Well Infant with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) with High Viral Load
https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-ar ... 01/5766416

The only symptom...

"During this viremic phase, he had 1 temperature record of 38.5°C which normalized within 1 hour."

Something you wouldn't even notice if you weren't taking the infant's temperature hourly!

This is the reason the UK started flu vaccinations for kids a few years ago - although they tend to get it more mildly than adults, they are a major source of infection for others.

[mikeh]

See red text for my entry, much of which is shoulder-shrugging guesswork. About 7-8 days from being infectious (different to being infected) to ending up as a statistic.

As more cases appear, testing will be pretty quick until capacity is reached. UK has done quite well with building capacity for tests. Last I saw we were allowing for 5k tests per day. That may well go up further. At some point it may be overwhelmed.
However, the patient behaviour is important too. If we get to a point where people are less likely to present to a health facility and in essence volunteer to be tested e.g. for fear of being isolated, then point 2 below is going to be variable, they may leave it until symptoms get much worse or they get better, and are thus potentially never a data point.

Any idea as to what the testing lag is? In the UK I think they turn them round fast.

But a two day lag in test results would mean Monday's figures are Saturday's tests. In the US I think some tests are taking 3-4 days because they keep failing.

The total lag is the sum of various components:

1) Infectious to feeling ill - the infectious period, as distinct from the incubation period (infected - symptomatic). This is probably 1-2 days
2) Feeling ill to consulting doctor - not sure how fast a significant-enough symptom kicks in, maybe 2-3 days?
3) Consulting doctor to doctor ordering a test presumably that same day
4) Ordering a test to taking test 1 day
5) Taking test to getting test result 1 day
6) Getting test result to central govt compiling of data and release 1 day

Anyone want to guess at how many days all this takes? And how they will change as it worsens e.g. longer lag to get tested or get results?

My guess is the USA has far longer lags - reports of people begging for days to be tested.

[Little waster]

I was supposed to be flying to california for the annual Society of Toxicology meeting.

It got cancelled today 72 hours out. BA are providing free flight changes... for everyone who booked their flight 6 hours after I did. Well of course.

I suppose for extra lulz it could have been an infectious disease conference.

"The Society for Epidemiological Forecasting regrets to announce the cancellation of this week's meeting due to unforeseeable circumstances."

Having inadvertently been double booked with the Ancient and Honourable Society of Astrologists, Tarot-Readers and Mystics. A spokesloonie said "We regret having to cancel the meeting but having consulted with our expert panel of crystal healers, homeopaths and that aunt who posts all sorts of woo on Facebook we have sadly concluded that the corona virus posed too much of a risk to Saggitarians, people who like the colour green and the number 15"

[lpm]

f.cking hell, Italy

[shpalman]

f.cking hell, Italy

Well since thousands of southerners fled the north to escape the lock down before it was enforced it's maybe sensible to lock the south down too rather than wait for outbreaks to kick off there too. (OK to be fair, going home is considered an acceptable reason to travel.)

#staythefuckhomecazzo

[headshot]

f.cking hell, Italy

Indeed.

[headshot]

See red text for my entry, much of which is shoulder-shrugging guesswork. About 7-8 days from being infectious (different to being infected) to ending up as a statistic.

As more cases appear, testing will be pretty quick until capacity is reached. UK has done quite well with building capacity for tests. Last I saw we were allowing for 5k tests per day. That may well go up further. At some point it may be overwhelmed.
However, the patient behaviour is important too. If we get to a point where people are less likely to present to a health facility and in essence volunteer to be tested e.g. for fear of being isolated, then point 2 below is going to be variable, they may leave it until symptoms get much worse or they get better, and are thus potentially never a data point.

Any idea as to what the testing lag is? In the UK I think they turn them round fast.

But a two day lag in test results would mean Monday's figures are Saturday's tests. In the US I think some tests are taking 3-4 days because they keep failing.

The total lag is the sum of various components:

1) Infectious to feeling ill - the infectious period, as distinct from the incubation period (infected - symptomatic). This is probably 1-2 days
2) Feeling ill to consulting doctor - not sure how fast a significant-enough symptom kicks in, maybe 2-3 days?
3) Consulting doctor to doctor ordering a test presumably that same day
4) Ordering a test to taking test 1 day
5) Taking test to getting test result 1 day
6) Getting test result to central govt compiling of data and release 1 day

Anyone want to guess at how many days all this takes? And how they will change as it worsens e.g. longer lag to get tested or get results?

My guess is the USA has far longer lags - reports of people begging for days to be tested.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/202 ... rage-study

People infected with coronavirus are symptom-free for an average of five days, according to a study that reinforces the need for strict quarantine measures.

The analysis found that 5.1 days was the median length of time before people started showing signs of illness, although there was a wide range of incubation periods, with a tiny minority of people taking up to two weeks.

[shpalman]

f.cking hell, Italy

Indeed.

If you start to see person to person transmission in the UK then the sooner you do something similar, the better.

[Bird on a Fire]

f.cking hell, Italy

Indeed.

If you start to see person to person transmission in the UK then the sooner you do something similar, the better.

How is it being on lockdown?

I have a friend in China who's been locked down for weeks, and he's going bonkers.

[JellyandJackson]

According to the Beeb https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51807781 people who show even “minor” symptoms of a respiratory tract infection may be asked to self-isolate in the next few days. What’s the difference between an RTI and a cough and cold? Answers on a postcard to the usual address, please.

I’m also repeatedly telling myself that the mortality rate in young children is zero (so far). Kid C had a 3 day admission with a viral wheeze in November, (no history of asthma) and I’m worrying about him either being ill with Covid19 or, more likely, being ill with wheeze and needing to be in a hospital which is struggling to cope.

They really need to write some workable guidelines for how self isolation is going to work in families now. Given how there still seem to be massive amounts of coughs and colds circulating round us, it's going to hit a lot of families. I want to be told what is reasonable to do with an ill child and how to minimise risk when they can't be isolated.

Yes, seconded. I can’t isolate a 7 year old! Maybe I’d isolate me and him....there are also 2 teenagers in the house. We are basically a germ reservoir.

[shpalman]

How is it being on lockdown?
I have a friend in China who's been locked down for weeks, and he's going bonkers.

There isn't a huge difference for me now as compared to the two weeks ago when dancing and the gym, amongst other things, got shut down. I could even go to work if I really had to (but I've set up some stuff so that I can run measurements from home) and as far as I can tell I'm allowed to go to the supermarket as long as there aren't too many people already in it. I didn't do much of the randomly-going-out-just-for-the-sake-of-it anyway.

Yeah I'm suffering a bit without the dancing though.