COVID-19

[bagpuss]

Reached a refugee camp in northern Iraq.

Not a day goes by without me acknowledging to myself how damned fortunate I am.

f.ck. And yes, me too.

Really sorry too for all those whose travel plans have been buggered up. I'm thanking my lucky stars, and school holiday timings, for the fact that our trip to Iceland, which was to celebrate the big birthday I'll be having towards the end of this month, has already happened, in half term.

[Grumble]

I am supposed to be flying to New York on Sunday to be there for SO's birthday on St Paddy's day. Booked NBA tickets and Book of Mormon tickets for us all. Lokks likely that we will not be going. Boo!

In two weeks I would have been going to a fun geeky conference in Atlanta that is held every 2 years. I was having my doubts about going, but the decision has now been made for me. Just two days ago KLM sent me an email "checklist for your trip to Atlanta" with no mention of Covid. I wonder what their next email is going to say, and if it's going to be easy to get the costs of my flight tickets back.

Boss due to go to conference in Europe in May, has booked flights with refundable tickets at over double the cost of non-refundable.

[mikeh]

Around 40% of churchgoers in the UK are over 65 (source).

From a public health point of view, one to watch. Equally, from a social point of view, that may be a vital source of solace for individuals, and contact with other people.

Therein lies a small example of how difficult it will be to balance between the immediate public health risks of COVID-19, and the mental health and wellbeing aspects relating to loneliness, anxiety etc etc.

I haven't seen much data coming out of China on the secondary consequences of quarantines and shutdowns.

[lpm]

A paramedic has tested positive.

Shutting schools today will reduce flu and colds in a couple of week's time, as well as Covid, A bit like cancelling non-essential operations - it will preserve NHS resources by diminishing other sickness.

There is no excessive stress on the NHS right now, so this thing about "But shutting schools will cause childcare problems for 4% or 6% of NHS employees" doesn't apply. For the next two weeks the NHS stress will be manageable, and then it will be the Easter holidays when all schools will be shut anyway.

The NHS should run at reduced levels for the next two weeks, with essentials only, in order to give everyone R&R - time to go to the supermarket, make arrangements, have a few days off in front of the TV. In two weeks time they are going to be starting a non-stop six month shift, involving extreme exhaustion, high levels of sickness and fatalities.

[lpm]

Around 40% of churchgoers in the UK are over 65 (source).

From a public health point of view, one to watch. Equally, from a social point of view, that may be a vital source of solace for individuals, and contact with other people.

Therein lies a small example of how difficult it will be to balance between the immediate public health risks of COVID-19, and the mental health and wellbeing aspects relating to loneliness, anxiety etc etc.

I haven't seen much data coming out of China on the secondary consequences of quarantines and shutdowns.

Organised religions have already infected thousands - not just from South Korea patient 31. There has to be priorities. For example, funerals will be a risk, but will probably be far more valuable as a source of solace than a routine Sunday service.

[bagpuss]

A paramedic has tested positive.

Shutting schools today will reduce flu and colds in a couple of week's time, as well as Covid, A bit like cancelling non-essential operations - it will preserve NHS resources by diminishing other sickness.

There is no excessive stress on the NHS right now, so this thing about "But shutting schools will cause childcare problems for 4% or 6% of NHS employees" doesn't apply. For the next two weeks the NHS stress will be manageable, and then it will be the Easter holidays when all schools will be shut anyway.

The NHS should run at reduced levels for the next two weeks, with essentials only, in order to give everyone R&R - time to go to the supermarket, make arrangements, have a few days off in front of the TV. In two weeks time they are going to be starting a non-stop six month shift, involving extreme exhaustion, high levels of sickness and fatalities.

A minor point but while yes, all schools will be shut anyway for Easter, many kids would normally be in holiday clubs which, we have to assume, will also be shut if schools are. So it's not likely to be very much easier for anyone during the Easter holiday than at any other time.

That said, I think I agree with you otherwise. While it's going to be very hard for all parents having schools close now, I think it's the wisest thing to do, not least because when schools do, almost inevitably, close many kids are going to end up staying with grandparents as the parents can't look after them. So let's shut the schools sooner while the chances are still fairly low of the kids being infected and taking that infection with them to their vulnerable older relatives. And I'm slightly surprised that my mum's cataract operation due later this month hasn't already been cancelled, frankly - surely all non-urgent ops should be being stopped for now.

[mikeh]

Around 40% of churchgoers in the UK are over 65 (source).

From a public health point of view, one to watch. Equally, from a social point of view, that may be a vital source of solace for individuals, and contact with other people.

Therein lies a small example of how difficult it will be to balance between the immediate public health risks of COVID-19, and the mental health and wellbeing aspects relating to loneliness, anxiety etc etc.

I haven't seen much data coming out of China on the secondary consequences of quarantines and shutdowns.

Organised religions have already infected thousands - not just from South Korea patient 31. There has to be priorities. For example, funerals will be a risk, but will probably be far more valuable as a source of solace than a routine Sunday service.

Broadly agree. The risks of (for example) loneliness from cancelling services this sunday will be present but small. Repeated shutdowns over a period of many weeks? Much greater impact from these secondary consequences. And how many COVID cases are we reducing from doing that? Is it worth it?

Possibly. Maybe, probably But, hard to tell. Hard balance to get right. Shutdowns will need to be lengthy to be effective.

And it's why the voices demanding we SHUT-EVERYTHING-DOWN without consideration for the nuances around 'is it worth it' are a little frustrating to hear. Those same voices will be the first to write to the Express with a GOVERNMENT-SHUTDOWN-KILLED-MY-ELDERLY-MUM story.

[Pucksoppet]

It's reached the Pacific islands. Quite amazing that in 3 months it can go from a single person in inland China to the most remote places on the planet.

That's mechanised transport for you. Then again, I wonder how long it took European diseases to sweep South America once the conquistadors arrived?

The trouble is, all the restrictions now sound a lot like stable doors slamming long after the horsed have bolted. Had they been enacted earlier, the severity of the outcomes could well have been reduced. Perhaps people will learn for the next time. Perhaps.

[mikeh]

The trouble is, all the restrictions now sound a lot like stable doors slamming long after the horsed have bolted. Had they been enacted earlier, the severity of the outcomes could well have been reduced. Perhaps people will learn for the next time. Perhaps.

On this specific point - this is one area I've been writing about behind the scenes, the lack of preparation between big outbreaks/pandemics etc. For example, R&D funding closely follows "right after the Last Big Thing", and then slows down a year or two later, with very little in advance. Since Ebola 2014/15, there have been moves to invest more heavily in the advance solutions, but new vaccines and therapeutics take years to develop, and this COVID-19 has caught everyone on the hop.

Coronavirus R&D, for example, 95% pre-clinical over the last 20 years, so new tools and products not yet put through clinical trials. And this is despite SARS and MERS firing warning shots across the bows. Somewhere very close to no funding directed at Zika virus prior to its emergence in South America. Hard to predict sometimes what the Next Big Thing will be, but a hemorrhagic fever (Ebola, Marburg, Lassa) or severe respiratory infection (flu, coronavirus) are not hard to predict.
There are R&D efforts on, for example, a universal flu vaccine. And there have been huge efforts on an HIV vaccine (I'm unconvinced whether the vast investments there are actually worth it). But, I reckon this can all be better scaled-up and better targeted. Needs new people with money to come on board. I have been speaking to various City firms over the last few weeks, huge concern about assets, they could be one source of funding, assuming the strings-attached bits can be worked out.

Since 2009 swine flu, countries themselves do typically have pandemic plans readied, but of course resources and inclination can be slow to ratchet up. In part due to people declaring spare capacity in a system (e.g. more ICU beds lying empty most of the year) to be a waste, so there is always this panicked response mode. Doesn't have to be this way.

[lpm]

Around 40% of churchgoers in the UK are over 65 (source).

From a public health point of view, one to watch. Equally, from a social point of view, that may be a vital source of solace for individuals, and contact with other people.

Therein lies a small example of how difficult it will be to balance between the immediate public health risks of COVID-19, and the mental health and wellbeing aspects relating to loneliness, anxiety etc etc.

I haven't seen much data coming out of China on the secondary consequences of quarantines and shutdowns.

Organised religions have already infected thousands - not just from South Korea patient 31. There has to be priorities. For example, funerals will be a risk, but will probably be far more valuable as a source of solace than a routine Sunday service.

Broadly agree. The risks of (for example) loneliness from cancelling services this sunday will be present but small. Repeated shutdowns over a period of many weeks? Much greater impact from these secondary consequences. And how many COVID cases are we reducing from doing that? Is it worth it?

Possibly. Maybe, probably But, hard to tell. Hard balance to get right. Shutdowns will need to be lengthy to be effective.

And it's why the voices demanding we SHUT-EVERYTHING-DOWN without consideration for the nuances around 'is it worth it' are a little frustrating to hear. Those same voices will be the first to write to the Express with a GOVERNMENT-SHUTDOWN-KILLED-MY-ELDERLY-MUM story.

Church of England with its empty pews are not the only religion in town. Think crowded Mosques, think crowded Hindu temples.

Experience elsewhere - Iran, Korea, Italy - has shown religion is a major risk factor, alongside politicians and healthcare workers.

Vicars are going to be going from trolley to trolley in hospital corridors, comforting their dying congregants who have not qualified for a turn on a ventilator - the idea of vague normalcy has to be abandoned.

[mikeh]

the idea of vague normalcy has to be abandoned.

The timing of that is important. Both the start of it, and how long it continues, because you cannot cancel normalcy for too long. Because, people.

[lpm]

Sorry, but I don't get that. The length of non-normalcy doesn't get reduced by delay, you are just shifting it.

If I shut schools and churches for 6 weeks, how does it help to delay the beginning by a week? All things being equal, this would just delay the end by a week. 6 weeks is 6 weeks.

Your approach would only makes sense if somehow you are reducing the length of disruption. Of course it's the opposite. Not only is it a case of the sooner we start, the sooner we end, it's also that starting early could make 6 weeks only 5 weeks.

[bmforre]

Permits to climb Everest have been cancelled. So that's my Easter plans ruined.

Glad to report that some Sherpas prefer work in Norway anyway building stone covered walks and stairs in mountains here.

This seasons work is fully booked so if lpm wants to come here she'll have to pay and not be paid.

[Bird on a Fire]

I haven't seen much data coming out of China on the secondary consequences of quarantines and shutdowns.

Would data showing that people became depressed or whatever would be allowed to be published? Seems like it would be perilously close to criticising the regime's response.

I don't know what is like in public health, but in conservation people have noticed that data coming out of China on everything from pollution to fisheries catch has a tendency to have been massaged.

Italy might be a better bet?

[bmforre]

I am supposed to be flying to New York on Sunday to be there for SO's birthday on St Paddy's day. Booked NBA tickets and Book of Mormon tickets for us all. Looks likely that we will not be going. Boo!

UKians may fly from the UK. You're outside?

If you can't travel you ought to be able to get the text of Book of Mormon. Certainly the old text, not sure if the recently revised version is released to the general market?
Here it is! Joy!

[lpm]

Looks like the only schools open in Europe next week are going to be in the UK. Johnson choosing to stand out from the crowd is a courageous policy, as Sir Humphrey would say.

[headshot]

Frau HS's uni has cancelled classes from next week. No students on campus, but staff still need to attend.

[Brightonian]

The Republic of Ireland is closing all schools etc.. Also, gatherings limited to 500 outdoors and 100 indoors.

Following from the discussion upthread of religious gatherings, my father's not been attending church services for a 2-3 weeks now to avoid communion and handshakes. However, this is the Church of Ireland (part of the Anglican communion, associated with C of E) and I suppose they'll still have services as there's little danger of a gathering of >100 people for a service. My father just had a phonecall from one of the clergy at his local church enquiring whether he was OK (he said he was, explaining why he wasn't going any more, and having to emphasise his age (80s) meant he was at risk).

[shpalman]

I haven't seen much data coming out of China on the secondary consequences of quarantines and shutdowns.

Would data showing that people became depressed or whatever would be allowed to be published? Seems like it would be perilously close to criticising the regime's response.

I don't know what is like in public health, but in conservation people have noticed that data coming out of China on everything from pollution to fisheries catch has a tendency to have been massaged.

Italy might be a better bet?

For accurate data? Well, eventually it will be, although there may be other biases in play here. Such as "we only have more cases than everyone else because we're the best at doing tests" and "it's someone else's fault".

Yesterday a prostitute and her client got busted - they were in a parked car in a town about 17 km from here. Violating the safe distance between people as well as making a trip which wasn't considered necessary for work, health, or essential reasons. (Maybe she would have been able to make house calls, since that is indeed her job.) I assume that even couples aren't allowed to see each other (if they don't already cohabit, which tends not to happen in Italy; everyone still lives with their parents) although there doesn't seem to be anything stopping people from travelling around within the town here.

I think Italy has managed to pivot from #MilanoNonSiFerma (#MilanWon'tStop) in which people tried to keep on having a good time despite the restrictions, to realizing that staying at home is for the benefit of everyone, especially the health service and the vulnerable members of society. Italians are naturally selfish but they do love their grandparents.

[TopBadger]

Anyone else feel like the UK is lagging way behind the response of other countries?

Seems what's needed is for the world to take a 2-3 weeks leave - other than continuing essentials like food shopping and production. For us all to hit the pause button and stay at home where possible.

During this time sporting events should continue but be held behind closed doors and televised for free (otherwise what the hell are sports fans going to watch).

[badger]

Looks like the only schools open in Europe next week are going to be in the UK. Johnson choosing to stand out from the crowd is a courageous policy, as Sir Humphrey would say.

Source? Or is it a hunch for the Post-COBRA announcement later today?

Rumour mill around schools our way is saying there will be closures, just lots of variation on when (between tomorrow and end of next week)

[lpm]

Italy CFR is so much higher than China. Up at 6.6%.

I had assumed China's number of cases were missing loads, because testing was overwhelmed, leading to a 0.5% or 1% region. The rest of the world, though, seems to be coming in higher. I don't think China fatalities will be missed, so what else could be happening?

[El Pollo Diablo]

See, I thought the numbers were looking too low:

Mike Tinmouth, a digital marketing consultant from South London has finally been tested for coronavirus more than a week after first reporting a fever to NHS 111 following a trip to Thailand and Singapore.

Speaking to the Guardian before his test he said that government plans to increase the testing regime from 1,500 tests a day to 10,000 was “too little too late”.

He said:

I was told you need to be tested, but I just wasn’t getting a response from 111. I was told there were severe delays to even book in for a test. I was flabbergasted. I woke up with a fever on Wednesday last week. I was first told that because I didn’t have a severe cough it was probably just flu. I was told I didn’t even need to self isolated

When I developed a cough I was told I’d been given the wrong information and that I should be tested and that someone would call me back. That’s when the real frustration started.

I went from being sick over the last few days to being angry, and frustrated.

[El Pollo Diablo]

rumours that the cobra meeting is delaying the release of numbers by dhsc, because grayling got confused and brought an actual cobra.

[El Pollo Diablo]

rumours that I started those rumours, which is a despicable accusation