COVID-19

[El Pollo Diablo]

there we go. 134 new cases, now to 590. Two new deaths. 2,288 new tests.

[Gentleman Jim]

<risks opprobium>

I blame Fleetwood Mac

[basementer]

<risks opprobium>

I blame Fleetwood Mac

tusk, tusk

[shpalman]

Italy CFR is so much higher than China. Up at 6.6%.

I had assumed China's number of cases were missing loads, because testing was overwhelmed, leading to a 0.5% or 1% region. The rest of the world, though, seems to be coming in higher. I don't think China fatalities will be missed, so what else could be happening?

Italy not bothering to test anyone unless they are already showing severe symptoms?

Or, Italy making some tough choices to not prolong (or even begin) the intensive care of elderly patients with pre-existing conditions so as to make beds available for cases with a better chance of survival? I've heard reports of this which have been denied by official channels.

[Gfamily]

<risks opprobium>

I blame Fleetwood Mac

tusk, tusk

BADOOM TISH!

[lpm]

f.ck. Iran. f.ck. This says 2 million cases is not an unreasonable estimate. f.ck.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archi ... ms/607663/

[lpm]

f.cking hell. Iran. f.cking hell. This ($) says mass graves dug with a pile of lime nearby, visible from satellites. f.cking hell.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics ... ak-graves/

[El Pollo Diablo]

The daily positive test ratio has gone from 0% on the 27th to 6.83% yesterday and 5.86% today.

I've grabbed some numbers here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... edit#gid=0

[shpalman]

f.ck. Iran. f.ck. This says 2 million cases is not an unreasonable estimate. f.ck.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archi ... ms/607663/

If COVID-19 is so rare—fewer than 400 cases had been reported in Iran by the day she announced her diagnosis—what are the chances that one of the afflicted would be a famous politician?

Something which could of course never happen somewhere civilized like the UK, with only 590 cases.

[El Pollo Diablo]

I'm aware of course that day 1 on that sheet isn't day 1 exactly, but I nicked those bits from Dr TF, so both thank and blame her for the positive test case bits

[Pucksoppet]

The trouble is, all the restrictions now sound a lot like stable doors slamming long after the horsed have bolted. Had they been enacted earlier, the severity of the outcomes could well have been reduced. Perhaps people will learn for the next time. Perhaps.

On this specific point - this is one area I've been writing about behind the scenes, the lack of preparation between big outbreaks/pandemics etc. For example, R&D funding closely follows "right after the Last Big Thing", and then slows down a year or two later, with very little in advance. Since Ebola 2014/15, there have been moves to invest more heavily in the advance solutions, but new vaccines and therapeutics take years to develop, and this COVID-19 has caught everyone on the hop.

Coronavirus R&D, for example, 95% pre-clinical over the last 20 years, so new tools and products not yet put through clinical trials. And this is despite SARS and MERS firing warning shots across the bows. Somewhere very close to no funding directed at Zika virus prior to its emergence in South America. Hard to predict sometimes what the Next Big Thing will be, but a hemorrhagic fever (Ebola, Marburg, Lassa) or severe respiratory infection (flu, coronavirus) are not hard to predict.
There are R&D efforts on, for example, a universal flu vaccine. And there have been huge efforts on an HIV vaccine (I'm unconvinced whether the vast investments there are actually worth it). But, I reckon this can all be better scaled-up and better targeted. Needs new people with money to come on board. I have been speaking to various City firms over the last few weeks, huge concern about assets, they could be one source of funding, assuming the strings-attached bits can be worked out.

Since 2009 swine flu, countries themselves do typically have pandemic plans readied, but of course resources and inclination can be slow to ratchet up. In part due to people declaring spare capacity in a system (e.g. more ICU beds lying empty most of the year) to be a waste, so there is always this panicked response mode. Doesn't have to be this way.

Thanks for the detailed response. What you describe is all important.

What I was thinking, and did not make clear, was that early intervention, which is to say draconian travel restrictions, quarantines, and shutdown of events and facilities where more than a handful of people meet, could well help reduce the maximum simultaneous amount of healthcare resources needed to deal with the problem - i.e. reducing the 'spike' to manageable proportions. It won't necessarily reduce the eventual number of people infected, but it would give the health sector the room to manoeuvre to provide the necessary resources to treat people.
It probably means more needs to be done to enable early identification of outbreaks, and better processes to enable fast lock-downs. The analysis of how this outbreak was handled will be interesting for the survivors. I suspect testing resources might get beefed up and money put into technologies to enable faster, cheaper, and more accurate testing. Being able to PCR test (or equivalent) every inbound passenger at Heathrow and Folkestone in real time could be an interesting target to have. But I'm hand-waving here. The public health and preparedness experts are going to be busy...

[Bird on a Fire]

f.cking hell. Iran. f.cking hell. This ($) says mass graves dug with a pile of lime nearby, visible from satellites. f.cking hell.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics ... ak-graves/

f.cking hell is right. Sounds like they may have been suppressing news an outbreak for a while. It wouldn't surprise me much if other countries, including China, had done the same.

Obviously the situation in Iran is a lot worse than it needs to be because of US sanctions restricting availability of key medical and hygiene equipment, as well as (if confirmed) the cover-up response by domestic authorities.

[Gentleman Jim]

For the last few weeks, the main advert I have be getting on my phone is for Co-op funeral care

[Grumble]

f.cking hell. Iran. f.cking hell. This ($) says mass graves dug with a pile of lime nearby, visible from satellites. f.cking hell.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics ... ak-graves/

f.cking hell is right. Sounds like they may have been suppressing news an outbreak for a while. It wouldn't surprise me much if other countries, including China, had done the same.

Obviously the situation in Iran is a lot worse than it needs to be because of US sanctions restricting availability of key medical and hygiene equipment, as well as (if confirmed) the cover-up response by domestic authorities.

A colleague’s father has contracted Covid19 in Iran whilst there for a funeral. He travelled before the whole thing kicked off. He’s in his 60s with no underlying health issues but is in hospital using an oxygen mask. He was unable to speak on the phone apparently being unable to breath properly. This is not a mild disease even if you aren’t generally poorly.

[El Pollo Diablo]

Looks like Sturgeon is stealing Johnson's pathetic thunder.

[secret squirrel]

Tourism way down in Thailand due to virus fears. Lower tourism means less food for monkeys. Less food for monkeys means thousand strong monkey battle.

[dyqik]

Is the British Government really saying that it wants people to be exposed to the virus, as this story suggests - https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-12/bri ... rt-peston/

[jaap]

Earlier today the Dutch prime minister held a press conference to announce the latest measures/advice to combat the spread of the virus.

- All public events with 100 or more people are cancelled, including sports matches till the end of the month. Large private events are discouraged.
- If you have any flu symptoms, stay at home. Only call GP if symptoms get worse.
- People are advised to work from home if possible.
- Schools remain open still, as closing them would cause to much disruption due to parents having to stay at home.
- Universities and other higher education institutions should do lecture online as much as possible.
- Vulnerable people advised not to use public transport.
- Reduce unnecessary visits with vulnerable people.

So I might be working from home tomorrow. We've been asked to take our laptops home anyway.

[Brightonian]

Italy CFR is so much higher than China. Up at 6.6%.

I had assumed China's number of cases were missing loads, because testing was overwhelmed, leading to a 0.5% or 1% region. The rest of the world, though, seems to be coming in higher. I don't think China fatalities will be missed, so what else could be happening?

Italy not bothering to test anyone unless they are already showing severe symptoms?

Or, Italy making some tough choices to not prolong (or even begin) the intensive care of elderly patients with pre-existing conditions so as to make beds available for cases with a better chance of survival? I've heard reports of this which have been denied by official channels.

This Twitter thread yesterday saying as much.

[Gfamily]

Is the British Government really saying that it wants people to be exposed to the virus, as this story suggests - https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-12/bri ... rt-peston/

I'm not sure they're saying they want it, but I'd read that as them saying its unrealistic to think they can stop it happening now.

[Bird on a Fire]

Is the British Government really saying that it wants people to be exposed to the virus, as this story suggests - https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-12/bri ... rt-peston/

I think "expect" rather than "wants", as I understood it.

I am slowly coming to the conclusion that everybody is going to come into contact with this thing sooner or later. Slowing the spread is obviously a good idea, to reduce pressure on emergency services from the % that need specialist treatment. But everyone's going to get it sooner or later, I think - is there really a realistic prospect of shutting down multiple entire countries for long enough that it just goes away?

Cases in South Africa seem to be linked to people who have visited Europe, for example - but it's now already in an unknown number of people on that continent too, so can be transmitted in the reverse direction too.

We're all going to get it.

As a basically healthy youngster, I'm starting to think I might as well go and rub faces with somebody infected, then self-isolate and get it over with, rather than wait a couple of years for a vaccine. What do we think?

[lpm]

Set up a rota.

Take it in turns to work in the hospital laundry, sewage plant etc, then go to a govt concentration camp for your allotted virus month.

[badger]

Looks like Sturgeon is stealing Johnson's pathetic thunder.

Yep. Preparing us for a 'soft delay' phase to be outlined in the imminent Johnson press conference.

No kids at home next week then.

[shpalman]

Italy CFR is so much higher than China. Up at 6.6%.

I had assumed China's number of cases were missing loads, because testing was overwhelmed, leading to a 0.5% or 1% region. The rest of the world, though, seems to be coming in higher. I don't think China fatalities will be missed, so what else could be happening?

Italy not bothering to test anyone unless they are already showing severe symptoms?

Or, Italy making some tough choices to not prolong (or even begin) the intensive care of elderly patients with pre-existing conditions so as to make beds available for cases with a better chance of survival? I've heard reports of this which have been denied by official channels.

This Twitter thread yesterday saying as much.

Yes, that's translated extracts of the thread I read on twitter in Italian, which appears to be the main source for what I said.

[shpalman]

Is the British Government really saying that it wants people to be exposed to the virus, as this story suggests - https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-12/bri ... rt-peston/

I think "expect" rather than "wants", as I understood it.

I am slowly coming to the conclusion that everybody is going to come into contact with this thing sooner or later. Slowing the spread is obviously a good idea, to reduce pressure on emergency services from the % that need specialist treatment. But everyone's going to get it sooner or later, I think - is there really a realistic prospect of shutting down multiple entire countries for long enough that it just goes away?

Cases in South Africa seem to be linked to people who have visited Europe, for example - but it's now already in an unknown number of people on that continent too, so can be transmitted in the reverse direction too.

We're all going to get it.

As a basically healthy youngster, I'm starting to think I might as well go and rub faces with somebody infected, then self-isolate and get it over with, rather than wait a couple of years for a vaccine. What do we think?

In your case it may be advantageous to be an early adopter. Get in before it's popular.

In my case, current restrictions are in force until the 3rd of April. If I got it now then I'd be developing symptoms more or less during the peak of the outbreak. Well, we hope that it will peak during the next week or two, or else we are really going to be in the sh.t here.

98 cases in Como today apparently; up from 77 yesterday. https://twitter.com/RegLombardia/status ... 9866494977 is live right now. And 120 new ICU beds set up today.