Democratic Candidate 2020

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Bird on a Fire
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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by Bird on a Fire » Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:28 pm

A bit of a breakdown of who is voting for whom, based on political ideology rather than identity:
Liberals back Sanders 52% to 36%, while those who consider themselves moderate or conservative give Biden a 65% to 24% lead. Self-identified Democrats break 55% to 32% for Biden, while independents are about evenly split, 46% for Sanders to 45% for Biden. An education gap among white voters that seemed to be driven by white college voters' tendency to choose candidates other than these two has faded as the field has shrunk.
As secret squirrel and I have been saying, Biden's popularity seems to be with people who don't identify as on the left. (Even after accepting the USA's redefinition of 'liberal' as a left rather than centrist position).

The false perception of Biden as more electable than Sanders seems to be the main thing hurting Sanders' campaign:
About two-thirds of Democratic voters say they prefer a candidate with a strong chance of beating Donald Trump (65%), the largest share to say so in CNN polling in the last year, while 29% say they prefer one who agrees with them on major issues. These voters take opposite views on the race between Biden and Sanders: 59% in the beat Trump camp choose Biden and 53% on the issues side choose Sanders.

Still, there's little to suggest a major backlash no matter who ultimately wins the party's nomination. About nine in 10 voters who are Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents say they would ultimately support each candidate in November, regardless of their support in the primary. And three-quarters of Democratic voters (74%) -- including 78% of those who prioritize beating Trump -- say they are confident the party will nominate someone with a strong chance to defeat the President.
This concords with the national polling posted above, showing that both candidates would beat Trump.

Notably, there is considerable appetite for profound systemic change in the USA:
But the poll suggests Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters are not merely looking for someone to hit the reset button on the Trump era. Asked whether it should be a higher priority for the next president to restore the government to the way it was before Trump took office or to go beyond restoration to make major changes to the way the government works, 72% choose major changes, just 25% restoration. Even among Biden supporters, 58% say it is more important to make major changes to move beyond where the government was before Trump.

About two-thirds of Americans (66%) and 8 in 10 Democratic or Democratic-leaning voters (83%) say they do not feel well represented by the government in Washington now. Among Sanders' supporters, that rises to 88%, including 57% who say they feel not at all represented by the government in Washington.
There is a lot of anger in the country, and campaigning for Sanders over 8 years has created a network of organised, often angry, mostly young, mostly working-class people. I don't think that that will go away with a Biden nomination. The Sanders campaign has been endorsing downticket nominations, so has the potential for effecting some change at lower levels - but what will be really interesting is if it starts to introduce ideas about working-class solidarity, unionisation, strike action etc. into US workplaces.

Obviously that's an uphill battle in such an individualistic culture. But these are people who can't just forget about politics for 3.5 years like a lot of Biden supporters, and who will not feel represented by the political system. I don't think a Biden nomination would bode well for "uniting the country" - it alienates everybody left-of-centre.
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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by lpm » Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:34 pm

Bless you, BoaF, but 538 already does that work for us. Biden is the pink line - on track to 2,438 vs Sanders 1,334. It would need a shock turnaround even to bring him back below 1,990 and bring superdelegates into play.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... id=rrpromo
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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by Bird on a Fire » Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:45 pm

lpm wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:34 pm
Bless you, BoaF, but 538 already does that work for us. Biden is the pink line - on track to 2,438 vs Sanders 1,334. It would need a shock turnaround even to bring him back below 1,990 and bring superdelegates into play.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... id=rrpromo
That's a prediction based on current polls, already seen and discussed, but it doesn't make it clear how much has already happened and how much is yet to come.

Yes, based on current polling, Biden is very likely to win. I was just interested to note that, despite 538 calling it 100% for Biden, only half the votes are in yet. Some weird unlikely event could happen - what if Biden gets coronavirus, for instance?
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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by Bird on a Fire » Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:46 pm

Thanks for being patronising though.
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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by lpm » Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:51 pm

You're welcome, I'm always happy to play to my strengths.
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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by Bird on a Fire » Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:53 pm

I haven't been blessed for ages.

Might even do my some good, in this age of plague and pestilence.
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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:09 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:28 pm
A bit of a breakdown of who is voting for whom, based on political ideology rather than identity:
Self-identified Democrats break 55% to 32% for Biden, while independents are about evenly split, 46% for Sanders to 45% for Biden.
Similar to the discussion on women, this highlights the importance of party identification.

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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by dyqik » Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:07 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:45 pm
lpm wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:34 pm
Bless you, BoaF, but 538 already does that work for us. Biden is the pink line - on track to 2,438 vs Sanders 1,334. It would need a shock turnaround even to bring him back below 1,990 and bring superdelegates into play.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... id=rrpromo
That's a prediction based on current polls, already seen and discussed, but it doesn't make it clear how much has already happened and how much is yet to come.
Not just on current polls, but on demographic breakdowns of polls and results - i.e. what you did up there.

Biden is winning the white working class vote (not necessarily the young part though) from Sanders - the opposite of how the Primary went in 2016, with Sanders pulling in the older white working class as well.

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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by lpm » Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:35 pm

Louisiana primaries postponed.

What are the laws about November elections? They were held in 1944, unlike in Britain where voting (and other democratic rights) were suspended.

It's pretty much Trump's only hope now. Is he going to dare order suspension of democracy?

I think the constitution just demands the electoral college, states can choose how to select electors at the electoral college?
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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by Herainestold » Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:11 pm

lpm wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:35 pm
Louisiana primaries postponed.

What are the laws about November elections? They were held in 1944, unlike in Britain where voting (and other democratic rights) were suspended.

It's pretty much Trump's only hope now. Is he going to dare order suspension of democracy?

I think the constitution just demands the electoral college, states can choose how to select electors at the electoral college?
I think he is making another announcement this afternoon in America. Maybe this is it.

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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by dyqik » Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:33 pm

lpm wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:35 pm
Louisiana primaries postponed.

What are the laws about November elections? They were held in 1944, unlike in Britain where voting (and other democratic rights) were suspended.

It's pretty much Trump's only hope now. Is he going to dare order suspension of democracy?

I think the constitution just demands the electoral college, states can choose how to select electors at the electoral college?
It's a constitutional requirement that the electoral college elects a president every four years. And most states have constitutions and laws requiring them to elect the electors. As well as many having laws against faithless electors.

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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by Herainestold » Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:36 pm

dyqik wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:33 pm
lpm wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:35 pm
Louisiana primaries postponed.

What are the laws about November elections? They were held in 1944, unlike in Britain where voting (and other democratic rights) were suspended.

It's pretty much Trump's only hope now. Is he going to dare order suspension of democracy?

I think the constitution just demands the electoral college, states can choose how to select electors at the electoral college?
It's a constitutional requirement that the states carry out the elections every four years. And remember, they are run by the states.
So you are saying Trump can't stop the election? Only the individual states can stop the election. What if a few states suspend elections, does that suspend the whole thing?

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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by dyqik » Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:44 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:36 pm
dyqik wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:33 pm
lpm wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:35 pm
Louisiana primaries postponed.

What are the laws about November elections? They were held in 1944, unlike in Britain where voting (and other democratic rights) were suspended.

It's pretty much Trump's only hope now. Is he going to dare order suspension of democracy?

I think the constitution just demands the electoral college, states can choose how to select electors at the electoral college?
It's a constitutional requirement that the states carry out the elections every four years. And remember, they are run by the states.
So you are saying Trump can't stop the election? Only the individual states can stop the election. What if a few states suspend elections, does that suspend the whole thing?
They could cancel elections, but their electors validity would then probably be contested in Federal court, leading to all sorts of mess.

Since some state(s) like Washington are now postal ballot only, any attempt to cancel elections to prevent gatherings would probably get labelled "not trying hard enough".

Separately, the decadal Census may be messed up. That's mostly be mail, but includes a number of in-person interviews to calibrate the postal responses.

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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by bolo » Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:48 pm

The date of the election is in statute, not the Constitution, so it could be postponed (for a couple of months, anyway) somewhat more easily than the actual inauguration, which is in the 20th Amendment to the Constitution.

If the electoral college fails to select a new president by inauguration day, the 20th Amendment says Congress gets to pick someone as acting president. The previous president doesn't continue in post unless the Congress happens to pick him.

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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by lpm » Fri Mar 13, 2020 6:23 pm

bolo wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:48 pm
If the electoral college fails to select a new president by inauguration day, the 20th Amendment says Congress gets to pick someone as acting president. The previous president doesn't continue in post unless the Congress happens to pick him.
Selected by Congress voting as 50 states, I presume, one vote for California, one for Wyoming etc. Which means Republican.
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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by dyqik » Fri Mar 13, 2020 6:38 pm

lpm wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 6:23 pm
bolo wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:48 pm
If the electoral college fails to select a new president by inauguration day, the 20th Amendment says Congress gets to pick someone as acting president. The previous president doesn't continue in post unless the Congress happens to pick him.
Selected by Congress voting as 50 states, I presume, one vote for California, one for Wyoming etc. Which means Republican.
Yes, that's right. I've not counted the congressional delegations though, and the new Congress take their seats on Jan 3rd, before inauguration day, so it's the new Congress and Senate that votes, not the current one. The Senate picks the VP.

Oh, and the quorate for the House vote is 2/3 of the states, so there's the chance of some smaller states not being there at all. Maybe Wyoming, North and South Dakota, and Montana's single representatives will be self-isolating...

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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by bolo » Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:20 pm

I'm not sure that's correct. Section 3 of Amendment XX says
the Congress may by law provide for the case wherein neither a President elect nor a Vice President elect shall have qualified, declaring who shall then act as President, or the manner in which one who is to act shall be selected, and such person shall act accordingly until a President or Vice President shall have qualified.
I am not a lawyer or a constitutional expert, but I would take "by law" to mean regular congressional procedure, not the special procedure of block voting by state that is provided for in Article XII.

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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by dyqik » Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:34 pm

bolo wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:20 pm
I'm not sure that's correct. Section 3 of Amendment XX says
the Congress may by law provide for the case wherein neither a President elect nor a Vice President elect shall have qualified, declaring who shall then act as President, or the manner in which one who is to act shall be selected, and such person shall act accordingly until a President or Vice President shall have qualified.
I am not a lawyer or a constitutional expert, but I would take "by law" to mean regular congressional procedure, not the special procedure of block voting by state that is provided for in Article XII.
What's the difference between "qualified" and "elect"? I would think "elect" signifies selected by the Electoral College(?) as there's no other mechanism for a candidate to be "elected" at a national level? Whereas age or residency could prevent qualification while being "elect", and time would be sufficient for a President elect to qualify.

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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by bolo » Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:43 pm

dyqik wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:34 pm
What's the difference between "qualified" and "elect"? I would think "elect" signifies selected by the Electoral College(?) as there's no other mechanism for a candidate to be "elected" at a national level? Whereas age or residency could prevent qualification while being "elect", and time would be sufficient for a President elect to qualify.
I don't know for certain, but this sounds right to me, possibly with the additional qualification of having taken the required oath.

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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by secret squirrel » Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:10 am

Since Tulsi is definitely a Russian asset, and since Russia is definitely in collusion with Trump, does the fact that Tulsi has endorsed Biden mean Trump wants Biden to win?

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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by dyqik » Fri Mar 20, 2020 2:09 pm

secret squirrel wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:10 am
Since Tulsi is definitely a Russian asset, and since Russia is definitely in collusion with Trump, does the fact that Tulsi has endorsed Biden mean Trump wants Biden to win?
"Asset" doesn't mean "under the exclusive and direct control of".

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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by Bird on a Fire » Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:27 pm

Tara Reade is still trying to bring a case against Biden for sexually assaulting her, but appears to be struggling to access legal funds. https://theintercept.com/2020/03/24/joe ... -times-up/

ETA link to Twitter thread https://twitter.com/kthalps/status/1242691746561167360
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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by Martin_B » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:07 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:27 pm
Tara Reade is still trying to bring a case against Biden for sexually assaulting her, but appears to be struggling to access legal funds. https://theintercept.com/2020/03/24/joe ... -times-up/

ETA link to Twitter thread https://twitter.com/kthalps/status/1242691746561167360
Once (If?) Biden wins the nomination, I'm sure that they'll be lots of anonymous donors for her.
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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by Bird on a Fire » Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:18 am

Martin_B wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:07 am
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:27 pm
Tara Reade is still trying to bring a case against Biden for sexually assaulting her, but appears to be struggling to access legal funds. https://theintercept.com/2020/03/24/joe ... -times-up/

ETA link to Twitter thread https://twitter.com/kthalps/status/1242691746561167360
Once (If?) Biden wins the nomination, I'm sure that they'll be lots of anonymous donors for her.
I mean, maybe. But I don't think dealing with (AFAICT credible) cases like this should be a partisan process.
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Re: Democratic Candidate 2020

Post by Gentleman Jim » Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:22 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:18 am
I mean, maybe. But I don't think dealing with (AFAICT credible) cases like this should be a partisan process.
Of course no, but remember, we are dealing with US politics
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