COVID-19

[Brightonian]

Hello folks - have written this blog-post style around current UK response, addressing a little bit of what goes into it and why its different to some other countries, and why I reckon the UK probably has it about right at the moment.

It's just a doc on google drive right now, I may try and find a better home for it

Hope you find it useful/helpful.
http://bit.ly/covid19headm

[small](have shared it elsewhere, so fully aware its got my name on it etc)[/small]

I'll add my thanks on this.

Are you going to publilsh it somewhere a little more formal so I can send links to people? You might be happy for it to be linked to where it is, or you might want to keep it semi-private, or ...

Nonetheless, an interesting and informative read.

+1

[Gfamily]

We're putting notes around the local houses to say that if anyone is having to self-isolate we'll be happy to get some shopping in and stuff like picking up prescriptions etc.

[Lew Dolby]

otoh, Rugby League games at all levels from Superleague down to grass roots are (so far) all still happening. [except at Perpignan and Toulouse, which are behind closed gates].

Since many clubs share soccer grounds and crowds above 20000 are rarities, social distancing shouldn't be a prob.

[shpalman]

First Covid-19 case happened in November, China government records show:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... how-report

[Rich H]

Just went to do my monthly shop in Sainsbury's at Pepper Hill which is quite a large one. Most of the tinned food aisle was empty, all of the crisps had gone (although they were starting to restock that), all of the toiler paper had gone, nearly all eggs gone, the pet food aisle was about two thirds empty and (bizarrely) the shelves holding the wine boxes were almost empty.

Daughter works in Superdrug, they had someone i today asking if they could use Femfresh instead of hand sanitizer.

People are insane.

[Pucksoppet]

Just went to do my monthly shop in Sainsbury's at Pepper Hill which is quite a large one. Most of the tinned food aisle was empty, all of the crisps had gone (although they were starting to restock that), all of the toiler paper had gone, nearly all eggs gone, the pet food aisle was about two thirds empty and (bizarrely) the shelves holding the wine boxes were almost empty.

Daughter works in Superdrug, they had someone i today asking if they could use Femfresh instead of hand sanitizer.

People are insane.

I'll just make a suggested edit to clip out the redundant bits.

There's nowt so queer as folk <pause> 'cept more folk.

But yes, similar, but not so extreme behaviour round here.

[FlammableFlower]

Co-op and big-ish Sainsburys: no toilet roll, tissues, paracetamol, ibuprofen, pasta, long-life orange juice, snack bars, eggs and... tonic water...

...didn't check to see if all the gin had also gone...

[Gfamily]

Local Aldi - short of semi skimmed UHT milk, but apart from that, all's there.

Mind you..
Spoiler:

limits.jpg (50.33 KiB) Viewed 3822 times

[mikeh]

Hello folks - have written this blog-post style around current UK response, addressing a little bit of what goes into it and why its different to some other countries, and why I reckon the UK probably has it about right at the moment.

It's just a doc on google drive right now, I may try and find a better home for it

Hope you find it useful/helpful.
http://bit.ly/covid19headm

[small](have shared it elsewhere, so fully aware its got my name on it etc)[/small]

I'll add my thanks on this.

Are you going to publilsh it somewhere a little more formal so I can send links to people? You might be happy for it to be linked to where it is, or you might want to keep it semi-private, or ...

Nonetheless, an interesting and informative read.

+1

Thanks folks.

Prob not going to send it anywhere more formal (really can't be bothered rewriting it for a journal, too much effort, and trying to get a page set up on the university webpage isn't easy)

So suggest use the above link for now if you do wish to share.

[Boustrophedon]

To get back on track: I have just watched Sir Patrick Vallance the Chief Scientific Adviser to the government explaining the response to CORVID-19 on the Beeb.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-51632801

And I think I understand it. But is it A) a pre hoc justification of a callous response from a callous bunch of toffs who don't give a f.ck what the hoi polloi die of, B) a misguided attempt to justify the fact that they should have acted earlier or C) a quite clever and measured response to a pandemic that a large proportion of the population are going to catch anyway at some time or another.

If it is C) then they have failed to communicate it clearly enough and unqualified journalists are running with the idea that C) amounts to A).
Like this from Umair Haque

Moved from the covid vaccine thread

[Bird on a Fire]

I'll add my thanks on this.

Are you going to publilsh it somewhere a little more formal so I can send links to people? You might be happy for it to be linked to where it is, or you might want to keep it semi-private, or ...

Nonetheless, an interesting and informative read.

+1

Thanks folks.

Prob not going to send it anywhere more formal (really can't be bothered rewriting it for a journal, too much effort, and trying to get a page set up on the university webpage isn't easy)

So suggest use the above link for now if you do wish to share.

We've been using medium.com for stuff like that at work - it's free, no paywall (as long as you don't want royalties!) and creative commonsed so you can reuse stuff.

[mikeh]

We've been using medium.com for stuff like that at work - it's free, no paywall (as long as you don't want royalties!) and creative commonsed so you can reuse stuff.

Medium is subscription, is it not? I'm being asked to pay up when looking at it just now.

$5/month or $50 per year.

[Bird on a Fire]

We've been using medium.com for stuff like that at work - it's free, no paywall (as long as you don't want royalties!) and creative commonsed so you can reuse stuff.

Medium is subscription, is it not? I'm being asked to pay up when looking at it just now.

$5/month or $50 per year.

There's a two-tier system - paywalled articles that give the writers royalties, and articles that are free to view but don't pay.

We've published a few things without paying.

Basically, don't join the 'partner program' and it's free.

[lpm]

Lol. The White House called us the "consumer".

Covid consumers. One way to look at it, I suppose.

[Squeak]

Peter Dutton, the minister concerned was in the US a week ago, palling around with Bill Barr and Ivanka six days ago.

He's our home affairs minister, former immigration minister, and is portrayed by the Guardian's cartoonist as a fascist potato, thanks to his hard right history. I'm sure there's a weak joke about him bringing nasty things over our borders but I'll try to rise above that.

Still, he almost certainly didn't contract it in sunny Queensland.

Thanks for that. As far as I know there does still appear to be some person to person transmission in Australia. Id be delighted to be corrected.

You're right that there is a little bit of community transmission here but we seem to be a little insulated by our distance from the rest of the world, so everything is going a little slower.

Mind you, it's not summer anymore here, so most places are heading into what locally counts as cooler weather. Our Queensland niece was huddled under blankets for our Skype storytime on Monday. If some of the hoped for seasonality is about human behaviour (clustering indoors) then they happens at a higher temperature for Queenslanders than for Norwegians. And of course, it happens on really hot days too. And Singapore, Hong Kong, and other SE Asian nations where covid is on the march aren't exactly icy either.

Here's my best attempt at a local round up, but I had to go state by state because nobody seems to be publishing national figures on transmission routes.
Queensland (Dutton's home state) has 35 cases and I couldn't find any stats on how many of those were locally acquired.

New South Wales has 92 cases, mostly imports but some local transmission.

Victoria has 36 cases, with its first community transmission recorded yesterday.

South Australia has16 cases, with one being locally acquired.

Western Australia has 14 cases, none believed to be locally transmitted.

My state of Tasmania (which is an island off the bottom of the island continent) has four cases, all of which are imports.

My university says it will send most of us to work from home once there's community transmission in our state. There's a big meeting on Monday for our centre, where I assume this will be discussed. The university is also in bad financial trouble because half our international students are from China and they can't get here to start their semester. Currently talking about reducing staff numbers by natural attrition but everyone is anxious.

Starting Monday, the federal government has asked organisers to cancel all gatherings of >500 people. It is also giving $750 stimulus cash to all welfare recipients, which mostly means retirees. Not entirely sure how that's going to help gig economy workers but they are promising to make it easier to get sickness benefits, so maybe that will help some. They're also offering various rescue packages to small business (but not sole traders), companies who hire apprentices, and some other selected groups.

As a sign that the world really is coming to an end, the sight of a conservative Australian government engaging in the kinds of stimulus spending they've spent the last decade reviling is pretty convincing.

[lpm]

UK govt starting to u turn already.

The general public have rejected mass gatherings, before the govt wanted them to.

[Gfamily]

To get back on track: I have just watched Sir Patrick Vallance the Chief Scientific Adviser to the government explaining the response to CORVID-19 on the Beeb.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-51632801

And I think I understand it. But is it A) a pre hoc justification of a callous response from a callous bunch of toffs who don't give a f.ck what the hoi polloi die of, B) a misguided attempt to justify the fact that they should have acted earlier or C) a quite clever and measured response to a pandemic that a large proportion of the population are going to catch anyway at some time or another.

If it is C) then they have failed to communicate it clearly enough and unqualified journalists are running with the idea that C) amounts to A).
Like this from Umair Haque

For me, it appears to be a clear case of 'C)' - with the 'eh what?' that somehow the UK 'acting sooner' would have made any sort of difference to the impact of a f.cking global pandemic.

As for whether they 'should have communicated it better', yes probably - but the government don't manage the means of communication (and we know what happens when they do), but we don't (either), and there are plenty of well paid people in the media who are 'well paid' for their opinions rather than their understanding.

[headshot]

Twitter is a raging mess of uneducated opinions and conspiracy theories on this. (as usual)

I’m surprised people are saying this is a coup by Cummings to slaughter the old and infirm. Only a few months ago they were saying they these were the very people who voted Tory and the party enacted policies to benefit them and ignore the young.

Rather disappointingly, the usually excellent James O’Brien has been fuelling much of the scepticism and doubts on the Govt policy by asking negatively skewed open/leading questions about the Govt response.

I’ve decided to give Twitter a miss for now.

[badger]

To get back on track: I have just watched Sir Patrick Vallance the Chief Scientific Adviser to the government explaining the response to CORVID-19 on the Beeb.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-51632801

And I think I understand it. But is it A) a pre hoc justification of a callous response from a callous bunch of toffs who don't give a f.ck what the hoi polloi die of, B) a misguided attempt to justify the fact that they should have acted earlier or C) a quite clever and measured response to a pandemic that a large proportion of the population are going to catch anyway at some time or another.

If it is C) then they have failed to communicate it clearly enough and unqualified journalists are running with the idea that C) amounts to A).
Like this from Umair Haque

This. This. This.

Thought there would be some full-on widespread and good science journalism after the press conference yesterday, some from Govt, some from newspapers etc, to press home the message and breakdown key questions/concepts, and also explain why it's different from other approaches that are catching the headlines and attention.

Also would be useful to back up some of the assertions made, like the need for school closures to be 13-16 weeks long to be effective.

[basementer]

NZ: the commemoration of the Christchurch terrorist attack one year ago is cancelled. So is the annual Pasifika festival that celebrates Pacific Island culture.
Everyone entering the country, visitor or returning resident (with the exception of arrivals from the Pacific Islands) is required to self isolate on arrival. There will be spot compliance checks on people instructed to self isolate. But there will be measures to assist people who do.
So we've shut down the tourist industry and hammered aviation, for the greater good. Government is taking it seriously.

[Woodchopper]

Twitter is a raging mess of uneducated opinions and conspiracy theories on this. (as usual)

I’m surprised people are saying this is a coup by Cummings to slaughter the old and infirm. Only a few months ago they were saying they these were the very people who voted Tory and the party enacted policies to benefit them and ignore the young.

Rather disappointingly, the usually excellent James O’Brien has been fuelling much of the scepticism and doubts on the Govt policy by asking negatively skewed open/leading questions about the Govt response.

I’ve decided to give Twitter a miss for now.

Twitter is great for facts and very poor for opinions.

[lpm]

But one fact is that Johnson is a notorious liar.

Another is that the govt was and still is prepared to put the country through a massive No Deal economic shock for Brexit.

Another is that the govt pursued austerity, slashed benefits and public services, and starved the NHS.

Another is that they prioritise big business over workers.

So I'm slightly puzzled by opinions on here that declare their trust in this govt's plans. That think Johnson is doing what's best for the country's people. That believe against all factual evidence this govt gives a sh.t about the poor, vulnerable and sick.

And I'm also puzzled by opinions that ignore upside and downside risk. The ultimate risk is societal breakdown, and choosing to run at high daily infection rate magnifies that. People dashing to the tins aisle look pretty rational to me. Thinking people will get bored of self isolation and give up seems pretty absurd to me.

[lpm]

Oh, and the other thing is: these psychologists don't understand exponential. "Nudge" in a world of exponential? Come on.

Think about the speed of events in the past week. Last Saturday there was football, pubs and nightclubs as usual. This Saturday there is a weird half life of normalcy alongside strangeness.

And next Saturday? It won't be the same speed of change as the past week. It's exponential, a doubling. Or two doublings. It's going to be bewildering, hitting home to low current affairs users.

The precise little nudges the psychologists seem to think possible will be lost in chaotic stampedes of behaviour change. The Italy approach gives a freezing, a static world. The UK approach gives the process over to the highly unpredictable crowd decisions. It's almost designed to create unexpected events.

[badger]

But one fact is that Johnson is a notorious liar.

Another is that the govt was and still is prepared to put the country through a massive No Deal economic shock for Brexit.

Another is that the govt pursued austerity, slashed benefits and public services, and starved the NHS.

Another is that they prioritise big business over workers.

So I'm slightly puzzled by opinions on here that declare their trust in this govt's plans. That think Johnson is doing what's best for the country's people. That believe against all factual evidence this govt gives a sh.t about the poor, vulnerable and sick.

And I'm also puzzled by opinions that ignore upside and downside risk. The ultimate risk is societal breakdown, and choosing to run at high daily infection rate magnifies that. People dashing to the tins aisle look pretty rational to me. Thinking people will get bored of self isolation and give up seems pretty absurd to me.

And the CSA and CMO have cooked up a plan to serve the buffoon?

That the buffoon ordered them to cook up a plan to kill all the people that voted for him and will probably vote for him again?

Panic buying happens when you order a lockdown or ask people to self isolate if they get a cough or temperature. It was going to happen anyway. As you can see from every other country where this is happening.

I don't doubt Tory venality, but I'm happy to consider other approaches to this given the situation we're in, tailored to resources we have. Banging on about austerity is warranted but doesn't solve much now. I want to see the plans and numbers for additional ICU beds (I've only seen one bit on the press on this so far). And, as already mentioned, I want to see some of the science the CSA and CMO kept refering to.

I also think "choose to run a high daily infection rate" is not the plan, or poorly worded. They want to "flatten the curve" too.

[bob sterman]

The stay home with a fever (and don't get tested) advice seems to ignore one of the key lessons of Wuhan - get people with a fever tested quickly and isolated from their families as soon as possible (as most transmission was within families).

China’s Battle Against Coronavirus: 7 Takeaways
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/heal ... lward.html

Isolate the infected quickly.
In designated “fever clinics,” medical personnel in protective gear took temperatures, did rapid lung CT scans and gave swab tests that produced results in hours. To protect families, the infected were taken to isolation centers; the seriously ill and elderly went to hospitals.

We perhaps don't have so many people living with such large extended families. But the Wuhan lesson is that you need to get even the mildy affected people out of their homes and into isolation centres to protect their families (e.g. elderly relatives). We won't be able to do that as we're not setting up any isolation centres and won't even be identifying these people through testing in the community.