COVID-19

[lpm]

Anyone know anything about army field hospitals?

I assume everything is ready but they are keeping it very very quiet, understandably. Put up lots of tents, fill with simple beds, staff with military personnel?

[greyspoke]

I wonder how much field hospital capacity there would be, might be no more than a drop in the ocean compared to the NHS capacity already here.

[lpm]

Well f.ck.

@psythor and @sillypunk are ill and think they've got it.

Psythor was a member of the other place, wasn't he? Friend of MJR? He's the one who did the Trump Alerts bot.

[shpalman]

Today's figures

As of 9am on 14 March 2020, 37,746 people have been tested in the UK, of which 36,606 were confirmed negative and 1,140 were confirmed as positive. 21 patients who tested positive for COVID-19 have died.

So, correct me if I'm wrong, but it's practically doubled in two days - 590 reported on the 12th.

The claim that we are 4 weeks behind Italy seems so wrong. We always thought 13-14 days.

But the CMO said 4 weeks and we are not to question it.

4 weeks behind Italy which has been in increasingly restrictive lockdown for 3 weeks. So I expect you'll catch up.

He's assuming 5000-10000 cases now in the UK corresponding to about 1000 detected? Italy passed 1000 known positives on the 29th of February, two weeks ago. He wants to assume that there were already 5000-10000 true cases in mid February back when we only knew about that one guy in Codogno? Extrapolating our known cases back exponentially points to about 60 cases, not 6000. Trying to correct our 6% CFR to the 1% WHO value gives you a factor of 6, not 100.

[greyspoke]

On another note, my son is wondering what to do about trips he has planned. He can still go to Portugal (as of now) but there will be bugger all for him to do when there (which for him means bars, restaurants and clubs).

[lpm]

I wonder how much field hospital capacity there would be, might be no more than a drop in the ocean compared to the NHS capacity already here.

But a very large proportion of the NHS spare capacity already here?

What about if we hire all the wedding marquees, raid mattress shops and press gang nursing students and medical students to be nurses? Provide a lowest level service - taking temperatures, giving drinks and alerting a doctor if a patient is looking worse?

[lpm]

He's assuming 5000-10000 cases now in the UK corresponding to about 1000 detected? Italy passed 1000 known positives on the 29th of February, two weeks ago. He wants to assume that there were already 5000-10000 true cases in mid February back when we only knew about that one guy in Codogno? Extrapolating our known cases back exponentially points to about 60 cases, not 6000. Trying to correct our 6% CFR to the 1% WHO value gives you a factor of 6, not 100.

It was the Thursday announcement, so two days old. When official cases were about 500 he said actual cases could be 5,000 to 10,000.

Today it's 1,140 official cases, so in line with Italy on 29 Feb, 14 days ago.

I haven't seen any supporting evidence for the "4 weeks behind Italy" claim that the entire UK strategy is based on.

[lpm]

The FT tracker.

Mentally add in today's data point for the UK just announced - 1,140. How anyone can say something other than "about 14 days behind Italy" is beyond me.

[Bird on a Fire]

On another note, my son is wondering what to do about trips he has planned. He can still go to Portugal (as of now) but there will be bugger all for him to do when there (which for him means bars, restaurants and clubs).

Yes - honestly, not sure if it's worth it.

For one thing, bars and restaurants and stuff are all restricted to 1/3 capacity as things stand, and could be completely closed at any moment. There are even ticket systems to get into the supermarket. A lot of other tourist attractions are closed already, and I expect more will follow.

Also, people here are taking it much more seriously than in the UK. Usually, tourists in Portugal get a warm welcome but I'm not sure that would be the case now. I've heard people describing the few tourists still arriving as selfish and/or stupid. Don't forget this is a small, relatively poor country, and the national health service was already in crisis before this happened. Folk are expecting the worst. The country is on a state of alert til the 9th of April, with disobedience resulting in prison.

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but I can't imagine this being a good time for a city break type of trip. Beach holiday, maybe.

[Bird on a Fire]

The FT tracker.

Mentally add in today's data point for the UK just announced - 1,140. How anyone can say something other than "about 14 days behind Italy" is beyond me.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETEujb6XYAAIyVs?format=jpg

Those twitter images don't seem to work with image tags. They're probably better done as links.

Definitely looking a lot closer to 14 days to me - or even less.

[shpalman]

On another note, my son is wondering what to do about trips he has planned. He can still go to Portugal (as of now) but there will be bugger all for him to do when there (which for him means bars, restaurants and clubs).

Yes - honestly, not sure if it's worth it.

For one thing, bars and restaurants and stuff are all restricted to 1/3 capacity as things stand, and could be completely closed at any moment. There are even ticket systems to get into the supermarket. A lot of other tourist attractions are closed already, and I expect more will follow.

Also, people here are taking it much more seriously than in the UK. Usually, tourists in Portugal get a warm welcome but I'm not sure that would be the case now. I've heard people describing the few tourists still arriving as selfish and/or stupid. Don't forget this is a small, relatively poor country, and the national health service was already in crisis before this happened. Folk are expecting the worst. The country is on a state of alert til the 9th of April, with disobedience resulting in prison.

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but I can't imagine this being a good time for a city break type of trip. Beach holiday, maybe.

This is not a good time for tourism.

[JellyandJackson]

Here’s a question I haven’t found the answer to yet.
Self-isolation advice is straightforward- stay home for 7 days, etc. I have heard (radio 4 I think) that as things develop, whole families may be asked to self-isolate for 14 days. Would we absolutely have to stay home under these restrictions, or is it just about not being in contact with others - eg could I take kids out for a walk if we stayed >2m away from everybody?
Apologies if the specifics of this are out and about somewhere, I haven’t been able to find them yet.

Link to full rule sheet.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... -infection

Thanks, I saw that bit.
What I’m after is what I’ve heard been discussed as needing implementation in the future (in the next couple of weeks) - where only one person in the family has symptoms but everybody has to stay home. At least, I’m sure that’s what I heard. I may be confused and got it wrong, it would hardly be the first time. I’ll keep my eye on official advice as it changes.

Speaking of compulsively sensibly checking news sources, here’s the niche fun and games relating to ocd https://www.theguardian.com/society/202 ... r-patients and some useful stuff from OCD-uk https://www.ocduk.org/ocd-and-coronavirus-top-tips/

V niche I know, and nothing on a par with not ventilating scores of people, but for a few of us anxious types it might be helpful.

[lpm]

The UK has to track deaths from here on, because we are stopping testing.

On Thursday 12 March the government claimed we were 4 weeks behind Italy. On that day, Italy was officially at 1,016 deaths.

So their prediction is the UK doesn't reach about 1,000 deaths until Thursday 9 April.

The prediction implied by 14 days behind is 1,000 by Thursday 26 March.

[jimbob]

Anyone know anything about army field hospitals?

I assume everything is ready but they are keeping it very very quiet, understandably. Put up lots of tents, fill with simple beds, staff with military personnel?

I was thinking about this, and thinking that it is going to end up pretty much requiring a wartime footing. If schools were closed, they could act as isolation centres with better starting infrastructure than tents - after all they tend to be used in flooding events etc.

And if, as the herd immunity idea is, is that 10% of the UK population gets infected every month for 6 months, then the death rate would be significantly higher than the Biltz (about 40,000 deaths over 8-months).

Today's figures

As of 9am on 14 March 2020, 37,746 people have been tested in the UK, of which 36,606 were confirmed negative and 1,140 were confirmed as positive. 21 patients who tested positive for COVID-19 have died.

So, correct me if I'm wrong, but it's practically doubled in two days - 590 reported on the 12th.

Yes at the moment it still seems to be on the trajectory of about 30-50% per day - probably because there is still a large susceptible population so exponential curves are a good fit.

<snip>
Amazing how we can all switch to not flying, driving less, working from home and so on overnight when a virus immediately threatens our health, but can't get a plan together over decades of knowing that climate change is going to kill us all. I suspect some of the systems put in place now will remain so, as businesses are being forced to adopt more resilient working methods with a bonus green spin.
<snip>

Yup. It's almost certainly going to alter behaviours more than even SARS did in East Asia - where mask wearing never went away.

[greyspoke]

I wonder how much field hospital capacity there would be, might be no more than a drop in the ocean compared to the NHS capacity already here.

But a very large proportion of the NHS spare capacity already here?

What about if we hire all the wedding marquees, raid mattress shops and press gang nursing students and medical students to be nurses? Provide a lowest level service - taking temperatures, giving drinks and alerting a doctor if a patient is looking worse?

Here in Wales capacity is being freed up by cancelling elective surgery (the Health Minister* did say this is to allow time to train staff from other fields to do Coronavirus stuff). Not sure how much effect this will have, but it has kicked my cataract operation into the long grass. Not that I am blaming him.

*Former student of mine as it happens, he comes across rather well I think.

[greyspoke]

On another note, my son is wondering what to do about trips he has planned. He can still go to Portugal (as of now) but there will be bugger all for him to do when there (which for him means bars, restaurants and clubs).

Yes - honestly, not sure if it's worth it.

For one thing, bars and restaurants and stuff are all restricted to 1/3 capacity as things stand, and could be completely closed at any moment. There are even ticket systems to get into the supermarket. A lot of other tourist attractions are closed already, and I expect more will follow.

Also, people here are taking it much more seriously than in the UK. Usually, tourists in Portugal get a warm welcome but I'm not sure that would be the case now. I've heard people describing the few tourists still arriving as selfish and/or stupid. Don't forget this is a small, relatively poor country, and the national health service was already in crisis before this happened. Folk are expecting the worst. The country is on a state of alert til the 9th of April, with disobedience resulting in prison.

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but I can't imagine this being a good time for a city break type of trip. Beach holiday, maybe.

Thanks BOAF, I will pass the info on.

[jimbob]

So, thanks BOAF for the suggestion a page or few back, I have set up a Medium account, and may when I find time add further coronavirus related posts on there as and when I can be bothered/find the time

For now, the post about the UK response is at the original google drive link, but also at https://medium.com/@michael.g.head/uk-r ... 5d748b2c16

As a general point around this, I'd urge pinches-of-salt-aplenty when there are protestations from shouty people.

Professor Neil Ferguson, from Imperial College, was on the Today programme. He is awesome generally, and gave an excellent interview about the intricacies and nuance around the modelling, and why understanding behaviour is important and difficult to adequately incorporate (he is leading work that will try to do exactly that). And he also pointed out, when you have numbers, you need appropriate interpretation, which needs pragmatism. If you take the piss out of the behavioural scientists, you do so from an ignorant standpoint. With that in mind...
.

armchairexpert.jpg

I get the general idea, but do wonder about the delay in shutting down mass events. Both from a practical POV and from the psychological POV.

Practically, if the event is inside, it probably involves many people from around the country in close proximity. If outside, there is generally catering and refreshment tents often have poorer handwashing facilities, and people in close proximity.

From a psychological POV, if the government wants us to start social distancing, and also take it seriously, keeping mass events running looks like they are not bothered, which is an unstated message that it isn't yet serious. And, if as expected, mass events will be shut down in a few days anyway, it looks as though the government isn't thinking it through. Maybe Johnson has decided the only way this will work is if everyone in the UK takes it seriously and decides that the government isn't able to, so he's altruistically looking incompetent so that the UK population looks to its own behaviours without recourse to government.

[sTeamTraen]

On another note, my son is wondering what to do about trips he has planned. He can still go to Portugal (as of now) but there will be bugger all for him to do when there (which for him means bars, restaurants and clubs).

If he woke up on the morning of his flight to Portugal with a fever and a cough, would he travel? Probably not. So all he has to do is pretend that that has happened, which of course it very well might. Good luck convincing the average club-hungry young man of that, though.

"Most people have a fear of acquiring the virus... a good way of doing it is to imagine that you do have the virus". https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=blkDuls ... e=youtu.be

[sTeamTraen]

From a psychological POV, if the government wants us to start social distancing, and also take it seriously, keeping mass events running looks like they are not bothered, which is an unstated message that it isn't yet serious.

This is going to be a huge problem. Why should I stay in if my neighbours are down the pub as usual? And will they think I'm some kind of snowflake for not going out?

[Bird on a Fire]

On another note, my son is wondering what to do about trips he has planned. He can still go to Portugal (as of now) but there will be bugger all for him to do when there (which for him means bars, restaurants and clubs).

If he woke up on the morning of his flight to Portugal with a fever and a cough, would he travel? Probably not. So all he has to do is pretend that that has happened, which of course it very well might. Good luck convincing the average club-hungry young man of that, though.

My neighbour is a DJ who gets a lot of work from clubs in Lisbon. Following discussion with his usual employers, he is expecting to be out of work for at least a few months over the summer, which is a bit of a shitter as his first kid is going to be born any day.

They're currently self-isolating, but he's set up his deck on the balcony and has been blasting pandemic-appropriate dance tracks such as "I Will Survive" and "Girls Just Wanna Have Fun" to the builders working across the street. We like to have fun.

[Lew Dolby]

BBC News just on - 10 more deaths !!

I wish they'd be more specific about what "underlying conditions" means in these and other serious cases. Are the victims people with a decade of heart disease behind them or just (just ?!) type-2 diabetics ??

[KAJ]

Anyone know anything about army field hospitals?

I assume everything is ready but they are keeping it very very quiet, understandably. Put up lots of tents, fill with simple beds, staff with military personnel?

I guess the kit needed to nurse severe COVID-19 cases (mainly respirators?) differs from that used by field hospitals (mainly trauma cases?).
But my guesses aren't reliable.

[bjn]

UK -> US travel ban from Monday.

[shpalman]

Anyone know anything about army field hospitals?

I assume everything is ready but they are keeping it very very quiet, understandably. Put up lots of tents, fill with simple beds, staff with military personnel?

I guess the kit needed to nurse severe COVID-19 cases (mainly respirators?) differs from that used by field hospitals (mainly trauma cases?).
But my guesses aren't reliable.

This does seem to be the main reason why a field hospital hasn't yet been set up in the Fiera di Milano - lack of things like respirators.

[shpalman]

164 behavioural scientists urge the government to share an adequate evidence base in support of “behavioural fatigue”

While one letter comes from 198 academics in the field of maths and science and calls for urgent measures of social distancing across the UK,

Another letter has been signed by 164 behavioural scientists. It raises concerns about the idea of “behavioural fatigue” – the idea that if the public are instructed to take preventative measures too early, they’ll eventually revert back to prior behaviour.

The letter suggests that this has been a cornerstone of British government policy on coronavirus and sheds doubt on the evidence behind this.

“While we fully support an evidence-based approach to policy that draws on behavioural science, we are not convinced that enough is known about ‘behavioural fatigue’ or to what extent these insights apply to the current exceptional circumstances,” it says.

“If ‘behavioural fatigue’ truly represents a key factor in the government’s decision to delay high-visibility interventions, we urge the government to share an adequate evidence base in support of that decision. If one is lacking, we urge the government to reconsider these decisions,” it ends.