What happens after Covid?
What happens after Covid?
A thread for musings on the post-pandemic world. What will be different?
Your starter for 10: what will next winter's flu season be like? With the social distancing measures and shutdown of international travel, we're also reducing the ability of other viruses to spread.
Your starter for 10: what will next winter's flu season be like? With the social distancing measures and shutdown of international travel, we're also reducing the ability of other viruses to spread.
Last edited by Stephanie on Thu May 14, 2020 9:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Moved from Weighty Matters
Reason: Moved from Weighty Matters
- Trinucleus
- Dorkwood
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Re: What happens after Covid?
Having a rethink about how wonderful freedom of movement is?
I've seen the suggestion that companies may realise that staff working from home is a lot cheaper than having a fancy office
Nobody needing to buy toilet rolls for the next three years
I've seen the suggestion that companies may realise that staff working from home is a lot cheaper than having a fancy office
Nobody needing to buy toilet rolls for the next three years
Re: What happens after Covid?
or pastaTrinucleus wrote: ↑Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:12 amNobody needing to buy toilet rolls for the next three years
I guess everyone will be queuing up for a flu jab. Maybe anti-vax will disappear.
- Matatouille
- Fuzzable
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Re: What happens after Covid?
I think that this is very much the case, and if this situation extends place over a protracted period it has real potential to become the new normal. Combined with teleconferencing for meetings and other functions like job interviews (particularly first interviews) might significantly reduce the need of people doing primarily office jobs to travel short or long distances. A real climate win.Trinucleus wrote: ↑Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:12 amI've seen the suggestion that companies may realise that staff working from home is a lot cheaper than having a fancy office
Of course will these employers who ask employees to work significantly/entirely from home over the long term also compensate properly for the increased costs of this?
New costs added for employees:
- They need to buy/rent a dwelling with that bit of extra space for a habitual ergonomic workstation suitable to their work and other needs
- Most will need to heat their homes for far more hours each winter
- Electricity costs will be higher
- Many will need a faster internet connection for work than they would be able to afford for themselves, or without a download limit
- Transport costs
- Buying meals at work (N/A if they usually brought home made meals from home)
And will the advantages this brings to people lead to an epidemic of working-age population loneliness, to go with our epidemic of older age loneliness? If the office workers see overall quality of life improvements, how do we bring similar improvements to those that do other types of jobs? We certainly don't want to dis incentivise the "doing" jobs society will always need.
- rockdoctor
- Clardic Fug
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Re: What happens after Covid?
The big unknown is how the pandemic plays out in the US. If it is really, really bad, it may change their views on socialised medicine. It may even change their views on socialism in general.
Or not, since half of America seems to be impervious to thoughts or feelings
Or not, since half of America seems to be impervious to thoughts or feelings
Re: What happens after Covid?
With most European countries trying out some version of the state paying the salaries of private companies, the whole concept a national minimum income is going to get revisited.
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- Catbabel
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Re: What happens after Covid?
and, post CoVid, a whole swathe of companies, which were struggling before the epidemic, going into administration - having taken the interest-free goverment loans and used them (as per Carillion) to plump up directors' pay and pensions.
WOULD CUSTOMERS PLEASE REFRAIN FROM SITTING ON THE COUNTER BY THE BACON SLICER - AS WE'RE GETTING A LITTLE BEHIND IN OUR ORDERS.
Re: What happens after Covid?
A rethink on what jobs are important and deserving of high pay:
ie medics, cleaners, supermarket workers, truck drivers, education workers, health and social care etc
Not hedge fund managers and other City spivs.
ie medics, cleaners, supermarket workers, truck drivers, education workers, health and social care etc
Not hedge fund managers and other City spivs.
And remember that if you botch the exit, the carnival of reaction may be coming to a town near you.
Fintan O'Toole
Fintan O'Toole
- Bird on a Fire
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Re: What happens after Covid?
I don't see working from home working out very well for people in shared housing (mostly younger people). Very difficult to keep things organised and yourself motivated if you have to work, rest and play in the same one room, which might not even have enough space for a desk.Matatouille wrote: ↑Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:58 amI think that this is very much the case, and if this situation extends place over a protracted period it has real potential to become the new normal. Combined with teleconferencing for meetings and other functions like job interviews (particularly first interviews) might significantly reduce the need of people doing primarily office jobs to travel short or long distances. A real climate win.Trinucleus wrote: ↑Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:12 amI've seen the suggestion that companies may realise that staff working from home is a lot cheaper than having a fancy office
Of course will these employers who ask employees to work significantly/entirely from home over the long term also compensate properly for the increased costs of this?
New costs added for employees:
- They need to buy/rent a dwelling with that bit of extra space for a habitual ergonomic workstation suitable to their work and other needs
- Most will need to heat their homes for far more hours each winter
- Electricity costs will be higher
Costs removed/reduced for employees:
- Many will need a faster internet connection for work than they would be able to afford for themselves, or without a download limit
Will they need a landline phone, with its associated call charges
- Transport costs
I've worked from home for the past 18 months, and the only one of these costs that my employer has specifically contributed towards is my landline phone call charges (used 100% for work). This suits me because the majority of other costs were more than addressed or made n/a by my specific circumstances, but this will probably not be the normal experience.
- Buying meals at work (N/A if they usually brought home made meals from home)
And will the advantages this brings to people lead to an epidemic of working-age population loneliness, to go with our epidemic of older age loneliness? If the office workers see overall quality of life improvements, how do we bring similar improvements to those that do other types of jobs? We certainly don't want to dis incentivise the "doing" jobs society will always need.
Nevertheless, I absolutely can see companies making the change to remote working as a default, with the costs of securing co-working spaces and equipment falling to employees (as it already does for workers in the gig economy).
Unless there is strong resistance by unions etc., that is.
We have the right to a clean, healthy, sustainable environment.
- Matatouille
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Re: What happens after Covid?
Quite. For it to work out for society generally, rather than just employers specifically. Any reductions in overheads enjoyed by employers should be passed on to the employees who making that possible. If the increased remuneration and soft benefits of home working aren't enough to make it a practical and overall positive change for the employee, it shouldn't be done, and certainly shouldn't be required of them. Making that analysis robust and mandatory will be the hard bit.Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:59 pmI don't see working from home working out very well for people in shared housing (mostly younger people). Very difficult to keep things organised and yourself motivated if you have to work, rest and play in the same one room, which might not even have enough space for a desk.
Nevertheless, I absolutely can see companies making the change to remote working as a default, with the costs of securing co-working spaces and equipment falling to employees (as it already does for workers in the gig economy).
Unless there is strong resistance by unions etc., that is.
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- Clardic Fug
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Re: What happens after Covid?
US election in November cancelled.
Whole bunch of start-up firms doing body-temperature / "Virus spotting" wearables etc.
A re-thinking of worker rights, gig economy etc.
Whole bunch of start-up firms doing body-temperature / "Virus spotting" wearables etc.
A re-thinking of worker rights, gig economy etc.
Re: What happens after Covid?
I can see it being fertile ground for pushing the idea of a higher tax / higher social security Scandi-style economic model.
- El Pollo Diablo
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Re: What happens after Covid?
Almost nothing. Almost nothing will change.
If truth is many-sided, mendacity is many-tongued
- Little waster
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Re: What happens after Covid?
After double digit percentage drops in the quarters when the virus was running amok the first "normal" quarter after the virus will see a record breaking amount of economic growth, this will be hailed as a triumph for Johnsonian economics and validation of the economic argument for Brexit.
Anybody pointing out our bumper Q4 was still 5% lower, due to the drag effect of Brexit, than the equivalent performance in the US and EU will be denounced as a diehard Remoaner.
Anybody pointing out our bumper Q4 was still 5% lower, due to the drag effect of Brexit, than the equivalent performance in the US and EU will be denounced as a diehard Remoaner.
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What is here was dangerous and repulsive to us.
This place is best shunned and left uninhabited.
What is here was dangerous and repulsive to us.
This place is best shunned and left uninhabited.
- sTeamTraen
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Re: What happens after Covid?
Trump tweeted a week ago that the Dow Jones had just had it best single day performance evah. He was right, too.Little waster wrote: ↑Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:20 pmAfter double digit percentage drops in the quarters when the virus was running amok the first "normal" quarter after the virus will see a record breaking amount of economic growth, this will be hailed as a triumph for Johnsonian economics and validation of the economic argument for Brexit.
Something something hammer something something nail
Re: What happens after Covid?
No, because opportunities for nimble businesses will exploit newly creaking gaps. Some of those businesses are already huge btw.
Re: What happens after Covid?
Is that "no" a confirmation of EPDs thesis that almost nothing will change or a refutation stating that the future belongs to nimble changemakers profting from creative destruction schumpeter-plodder style?
- Rich Scopie
- Snowbonk
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Re: What happens after Covid?
A few years ago I worked primarily from home - 4 days a week. The company paid an allowance each month on expenses for "use of home office" to cover the likes of electricity, and also paid our whole broadband bill (if we sent a monthly bill) or a pretty reasonable allowance each month if we couldn't be arsed. The company did have an office for meetings etc, and weekly "developer days", but it was pretty basic. It worked pretty well, although I wouldn't want to do it 5 days a week.Matatouille wrote: ↑Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:58 amI think that this is very much the case, and if this situation extends place over a protracted period it has real potential to become the new normal. Combined with teleconferencing for meetings and other functions like job interviews (particularly first interviews) might significantly reduce the need of people doing primarily office jobs to travel short or long distances. A real climate win.Trinucleus wrote: ↑Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:12 amI've seen the suggestion that companies may realise that staff working from home is a lot cheaper than having a fancy office
Of course will these employers who ask employees to work significantly/entirely from home over the long term also compensate properly for the increased costs of this?
New costs added for employees:
- They need to buy/rent a dwelling with that bit of extra space for a habitual ergonomic workstation suitable to their work and other needs
- Most will need to heat their homes for far more hours each winter
- Electricity costs will be higher
Costs removed/reduced for employees:
- Many will need a faster internet connection for work than they would be able to afford for themselves, or without a download limit
Will they need a landline phone, with its associated call charges
- Transport costs
I've worked from home for the past 18 months, and the only one of these costs that my employer has specifically contributed towards is my landline phone call charges (used 100% for work). This suits me because the majority of other costs were more than addressed or made n/a by my specific circumstances, but this will probably not be the normal experience.
- Buying meals at work (N/A if they usually brought home made meals from home)
And will the advantages this brings to people lead to an epidemic of working-age population loneliness, to go with our epidemic of older age loneliness? If the office workers see overall quality of life improvements, how do we bring similar improvements to those that do other types of jobs? We certainly don't want to dis incentivise the "doing" jobs society will always need.
It first was a rumour dismissed as a lie, but then came the evidence none could deny:
a double page spread in the Sunday Express — the Russians are running the DHSS!
a double page spread in the Sunday Express — the Russians are running the DHSS!
- Pucksoppet
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Re: What happens after Covid?
bl..dy optimist.
- Pucksoppet
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Re: What happens after Covid?
Well, yes. I was musing on this. All those economists looking forward to the grand experiment of leaving a trading bloc are now going to have to deal with a HUGE confounding factor, which will lead to endless argument over whether the changes are due to Brexit or due to COVID-19. Brexiteers will blame all the poor outcomes on COVID-19, and it will probably be extraordinarily difficult to tease out the reality.Little waster wrote: ↑Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:20 pmAfter double digit percentage drops in the quarters when the virus was running amok the first "normal" quarter after the virus will see a record breaking amount of economic growth, this will be hailed as a triumph for Johnsonian economics and validation of the economic argument for Brexit.
Anybody pointing out our bumper Q4 was still 5% lower, due to the drag effect of Brexit, than the equivalent performance in the US and EU will be denounced as a diehard Remoaner.
I wonder if the transition period might get extended ('over the Prime Minister's dead body in a ditch') as a result of the epidemic, as everyone is too busy fighting alligators to drain that particular swamp. There is much speculation on this point. I do not expect the epidemic to be 'over' by the the current transition period end; but changes to the schedule need to be agree by 1st July, if I remember correctly.
- Boustrophedon
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Re: What happens after Covid?
Not sure which of the threads to put this in, but an interesting read on the economic policy questions:
https://ryanavent.substack.com/p/apart-together
https://ryanavent.substack.com/p/apart-together
- Pucksoppet
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Re: What happens after Covid?
I don't think we are quite at Threads level yet. Even if the true mortality rate is 10%, and the entire population are infected, the 90% left will inherit working infrastructure, if not a working society. The economic dislocation would be enormous, which in itself might engender a breakdown of civil society and deaths as a result of that, rather than infection. But yes, there will be an after for a majority of people, even if I don't get to survive.
While the outlook is bleak, it's not nuclear war bleak, or supervolcano bleak, or local gamma ray burst/supernova bleak, or extinction event incoming asteroid bleak.
Re: What happens after Covid?
Except there will be a control over the channel.Pucksoppet wrote: ↑Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:47 pmWell, yes. I was musing on this. All those economists looking forward to the grand experiment of leaving a trading bloc are now going to have to deal with a HUGE confounding factor, which will lead to endless argument over whether the changes are due to Brexit or due to COVID-19. Brexiteers will blame all the poor outcomes on COVID-19, and it will probably be extraordinarily difficult to tease out the reality.Little waster wrote: ↑Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:20 pmAfter double digit percentage drops in the quarters when the virus was running amok the first "normal" quarter after the virus will see a record breaking amount of economic growth, this will be hailed as a triumph for Johnsonian economics and validation of the economic argument for Brexit.
Anybody pointing out our bumper Q4 was still 5% lower, due to the drag effect of Brexit, than the equivalent performance in the US and EU will be denounced as a diehard Remoaner.
I wonder if the transition period might get extended ('over the Prime Minister's dead body in a ditch') as a result of the epidemic, as everyone is too busy fighting alligators to drain that particular swamp. There is much speculation on this point. I do not expect the epidemic to be 'over' by the the current transition period end; but changes to the schedule need to be agree by 1st July, if I remember correctly.
Re: What happens after Covid?
You really think the Republican Party will hand the presidency to Nancy Pelosi*? Because that's what happens if there isn't a president elect by Jan 20th. Trump doesn't stay on automatically.
*Assuming she remains speaker of the house after states nominate Congressional representatives without elections.