COVID-19
- Stranger Mouse
- After Pie
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Re: COVID-19
Anybody got any predictions on what's going to happen in the USA? It looks to me like that Trump suppression of any realistic response combined with Republican b.llsh.t and Fox News could result in something close to a genocide.
I’ve decided I should be on the pardon list if that’s still in the works
- shpalman
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Re: COVID-19
They've been suspended here.Gfamily wrote: ↑Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:34 pmI've just cancelled taking our car in for its MOT tomorrow - no need for me and our mechanic guy to get out there. It's got a couple more weeks on its current one, and I suspect they'll suspend the need for them soon.
Heavy vehicles testing has already been cancelled, and (for a separate reason) MOTs in Northern Ireland.
If they don't get suspended, it looks like we will have to SORN the car.
Italy had fewer new cases today than yesterday, and yesterday there were fewer new cases than the day before, so let's hope it's working.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk
Re: COVID-19
The USA will be listed alongside Iran in the "mostly uncontrolled" group.Stranger Mouse wrote: ↑Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:30 pmAnybody got any predictions on what's going to happen in the USA? It looks to me like that Trump suppression of any realistic response combined with Republican b.llsh.t and Fox News could result in something close to a genocide.
The true horror is part 3. First was China. Then Europe/US. Third is Africa, India, Indonesia etc. Densely populated urban areas, little to no healthcare in rural areas, too poor to lock down.
Awarded gold star 4 November 2021
Re: COVID-19
Wow. Smart thermometers are a thing in the US.
https://twitter.com/Psythor/status/1242160512739180544
https://twitter.com/Psythor/status/1242160512739180544
The U.S. Health Weather Map is a visualization of seasonal illness linked to fever - specifically influenza-like illness. The aggregate, anonymized data visualized here is a product of Kinsa’s network of Smart Thermometers and the accompanying mobile applications. Kinsa is providing this map and associated charts as a public service.
The map shows two key data points: (1) the illness levels we’re currently observing, and (2) the degree to which those levels are higher than the typical levels we expect to see at this point in the flu season. (Details on how we calculate this are available in our technical approach document.) We believe this latter data point — which we’re calling “atypical illness”, may in some cases be connected to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Awarded gold star 4 November 2021
- Woodchopper
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Re: COVID-19
Yes, for everyone else the data can be seen here: http://opendatadpc.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... e38d4138b1
Its about two weeks since the shutdowns in the North and then the rest of Italy. So we are possibly starting to see the effects of that in the numbers.
Re: COVID-19
Indian colleagues we met with today said that they will be in lockdown from Tuesday night. I'm not sure if they meant just Chennai or the whole country. They're already working from home.
- shpalman
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Re: COVID-19
Well, I hope so, because we don't know what to do otherwise.Woodchopper wrote: ↑Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:55 pmYes, for everyone else the data can be seen here: http://opendatadpc.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... e38d4138b1
Its about two weeks since the shutdowns in the North and then the rest of Italy. So we are possibly starting to see the effects of that in the numbers.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk
- Vertigowooyay
- Snowbonk
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Re: COVID-19
Johnson literally white knuckled.
Calm yourself Doctor NotTheNineO’ClockNews. We’re men of science. We fear no worldly terrors.
Re: COVID-19
If ever there was a case of someone's dream job not turning out quite as they expected...
- discovolante
- Stummy Beige
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Re: COVID-19
'We will keep the situation under constant review andafterthreeweeks will look at this again'
To defy the laws of tradition is a crusade only of the brave.
- shpalman
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Re: COVID-19
And of course this also means that the UK's situation will get exponentially worse during the next two weeks until the measures being implemented now start to have an effect.Woodchopper wrote: ↑Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:55 pmYes, for everyone else the data can be seen here: http://opendatadpc.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... e38d4138b1
Its about two weeks since the shutdowns in the North and then the rest of Italy. So we are possibly starting to see the effects of that in the numbers.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk
- Little waster
- After Pie
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Re: COVID-19
So best case scenario currently is that UK deaths will peak at 5000 a day.shpalman wrote: ↑Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:50 pmAnd of course this also means that the UK's situation will get exponentially worse during the next two weeks until the measures being implemented now start to have an effect.Woodchopper wrote: ↑Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:55 pmYes, for everyone else the data can be seen here: http://opendatadpc.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... e38d4138b1
Its about two weeks since the shutdowns in the North and then the rest of Italy. So we are possibly starting to see the effects of that in the numbers.
This place is not a place of honor, no highly esteemed deed is commemorated here, nothing valued is here.
What is here was dangerous and repulsive to us.
This place is best shunned and left uninhabited.
What is here was dangerous and repulsive to us.
This place is best shunned and left uninhabited.
- shpalman
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Re: COVID-19
Italy had already been implementing various local lockdowns and mitigation strategies by then, so your number of cases might increase on a steeper exponential but you might not have such a terrible CFR.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk
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- Dorkwood
- Posts: 1520
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Re: COVID-19
(Bit of an aside to the rest of this thread... but... I think it's a good example of one of those things that becomes received wisdom through repeated retelling; to the point with this one, that politicians started using the stat - I wouldn't have questioned had I not heard the podcast)raven wrote: ↑Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:10 pmSorry, I misremembered. Or conflated the OECD and UK levels, one or the other. It's a good couple of weeks since I looked it up.FlammableFlower wrote: ↑Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:27 am
The "average reading age" thing is made up, looked into on an episode of More Or Less, as far as they could discover it was just invented by some website and it has kept being repeated (or variations of it) as it suits certain viewpoints.
However, that doesn't detract at all from the substance of your and lpm's posts, that simplicity and clarity are what's needed.
- Stranger Mouse
- After Pie
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Re: COVID-19
I feel aggrieved that I’m under house arrest because there was footage of selfish bastards ignoring social distancing at the weekend although I suppose in reality it would have happened anyway.
I’ve decided I should be on the pardon list if that’s still in the works
Re: COVID-19
Someone up there mentioned that Australia's response has seemed slow. Watching the Australian media, is have to agree with that.
The Federal government has been surprisingly fast to act on stimulus spending, after a full decade of deriding the GFC stimulus package. The MyGov app, where you apply for the sole, crashed yesterday and the government originally blamed a DDOS attack before sheepishly admitting that they just didn't expect that many people to apply for the sole at once.
But they've been much slower and more muddled on the health front. On Friday the 13th, the government banned gatherings of more than 500 people but the prime Minister still planned to go to the footy the next day. Within hours, the public backlash made him drop his footy plans. For years, their messaging had been that Pele should look out for themselves rather than the community but now they're saying that hoarding is Unaustralian. They closed down travel from China, Iran, and South Korea quite rapidly but left flights from Italy going for another week. I'm sure no racism was involved in that decision at all.
And, really stupidly, a few people got off a cruise ship with covid two weeks ago. Hours later, the ship went out again with 2700 new passengers on board, who are now home and were let off the ship to fly around the country without any checking, even though several were sick. So far, 50 new cases have been linked to that ship and those numbers will rise in the coming days. f.cking idiocy all round.
The states are mostly being a bit more responsive. Two states have independently closed all non-essential businesses and several have imposed border controls (which may actually be unconstitutional).
My nurse friends are furious at the lack of planning and the delays in ordering new equipment. They're really scared at the thought of working without basic PPE. Obviously, PPE is a problem everywhere, but Australian isolation should have given us time to start figuring out supply solutions and it seems nothing practical happened until the last few weeks.
My tiny state (Tasmania) has a doubling time of ~3 days at the moment but there isn't a single documented case of community transmission in the 28 yet. They're all imports or family of imports (six off cruise ships in the last two days). Perhaps we can kind-of contain it now that we're finally learning or lesson about cruise ships.
The Federal government has been surprisingly fast to act on stimulus spending, after a full decade of deriding the GFC stimulus package. The MyGov app, where you apply for the sole, crashed yesterday and the government originally blamed a DDOS attack before sheepishly admitting that they just didn't expect that many people to apply for the sole at once.
But they've been much slower and more muddled on the health front. On Friday the 13th, the government banned gatherings of more than 500 people but the prime Minister still planned to go to the footy the next day. Within hours, the public backlash made him drop his footy plans. For years, their messaging had been that Pele should look out for themselves rather than the community but now they're saying that hoarding is Unaustralian. They closed down travel from China, Iran, and South Korea quite rapidly but left flights from Italy going for another week. I'm sure no racism was involved in that decision at all.
And, really stupidly, a few people got off a cruise ship with covid two weeks ago. Hours later, the ship went out again with 2700 new passengers on board, who are now home and were let off the ship to fly around the country without any checking, even though several were sick. So far, 50 new cases have been linked to that ship and those numbers will rise in the coming days. f.cking idiocy all round.
The states are mostly being a bit more responsive. Two states have independently closed all non-essential businesses and several have imposed border controls (which may actually be unconstitutional).
My nurse friends are furious at the lack of planning and the delays in ordering new equipment. They're really scared at the thought of working without basic PPE. Obviously, PPE is a problem everywhere, but Australian isolation should have given us time to start figuring out supply solutions and it seems nothing practical happened until the last few weeks.
My tiny state (Tasmania) has a doubling time of ~3 days at the moment but there isn't a single documented case of community transmission in the 28 yet. They're all imports or family of imports (six off cruise ships in the last two days). Perhaps we can kind-of contain it now that we're finally learning or lesson about cruise ships.
Re: COVID-19
I saw a meme yesterday that described feeling like a primary school student feeling pissed off that one or two disruptive kids are causing the teacher to keep the whole class back for minute after precious minute of recess time.Stranger Mouse wrote: ↑Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:19 pmI feel aggrieved that I’m under house arrest because there was footage of selfish bastards ignoring social distancing at the weekend although I suppose in reality it would have happened anyway.
- Stranger Mouse
- After Pie
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Re: COVID-19
In my case it is exactly that - while spending the rest of my time trying to make sure an active 91 year old doesn’t get murdered by a tiny viral shithead strand of RNASqueak wrote: ↑Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:22 pmI saw a meme yesterday that described feeling like a primary school student feeling pissed off that one or two disruptive kids are causing the teacher to keep the whole class back for minute after precious minute of recess time.Stranger Mouse wrote: ↑Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:19 pmI feel aggrieved that I’m under house arrest because there was footage of selfish bastards ignoring social distancing at the weekend although I suppose in reality it would have happened anyway.
I’ve decided I should be on the pardon list if that’s still in the works
Re: COVID-19
Disruptive kids who were pissing in the classroom.Squeak wrote: ↑Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:22 pmI saw a meme yesterday that described feeling like a primary school student feeling pissed off that one or two disruptive kids are causing the teacher to keep the whole class back for minute after precious minute of recess time.Stranger Mouse wrote: ↑Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:19 pmI feel aggrieved that I’m under house arrest because there was footage of selfish bastards ignoring social distancing at the weekend although I suppose in reality it would have happened anyway.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation
Re: COVID-19
Disruptive kids who were pissing in the classroom.Squeak wrote: ↑Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:22 pmI saw a meme yesterday that described feeling like a primary school student feeling pissed off that one or two disruptive kids are causing the teacher to keep the whole class back for minute after precious minute of recess time.Stranger Mouse wrote: ↑Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:19 pmI feel aggrieved that I’m under house arrest because there was footage of selfish bastards ignoring social distancing at the weekend although I suppose in reality it would have happened anyway.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation
- shpalman
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Re: COVID-19
Wait a minute Italy's worst day was 800 deaths, and the total so far is 6077.Little waster wrote: ↑Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:54 pmSo best case scenario currently is that UK deaths will peak at 5000 a day.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk
- Stranger Mouse
- After Pie
- Posts: 2444
- Joined: Sat Dec 21, 2019 1:23 pm
Re: COVID-19
Lol - I’ve just been frantically scanning the site to see where that figure came from
I’ve decided I should be on the pardon list if that’s still in the works
- Brightonian
- Dorkwood
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Re: COVID-19
Be interesting to see if there are similar videos tomorrow.purplehaze wrote: ↑Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:48 amCity and Waterloo line suspended and many stops closed. They are obviously not going into London because they work in non essential employment because most of that avenue of employment has closed.
And this is what I find galling. Essential workers crammed together to deliver what is essential to keep the country running. I'd be scared witless.
Re: COVID-19
[Reply to aside] Now I've actually thought about it, what happened was I saw average reading age quoted somewhere, tried to source it, looked reading age up on the ONS, couldn't find anything there, found something on the literacy trust that mentioned the OECD survey, which took me to The International Survey of Adult Skills 2012 and I got sidetracked into how far behind we are in numeracy and never did find anything to back up the reading age thing.FlammableFlower wrote: ↑Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:16 pm(Bit of an aside to the rest of this thread... but... I think it's a good example of one of those things that becomes received wisdom through repeated retelling; to the point with this one, that politicians started using the stat - I wouldn't have questioned had I not heard the podcast)
And yet when I was ranting, it was what came to mind. Probably because I've seen it so often. A great example of the Illusory Truth effect, I think. Wot I read about in Thinking, Fast and Slow. [/aside over, as you were]
Re: COVID-19
South Africa is locking down for three weeks from Thursday. Spotted a FB thread on it which included stupid comments about foreigners exporting their diseases. Just in case you thought racist morons are a peculiarly white phenomena.lpm wrote: ↑Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:42 pmThe USA will be listed alongside Iran in the "mostly uncontrolled" group.Stranger Mouse wrote: ↑Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:30 pmAnybody got any predictions on what's going to happen in the USA? It looks to me like that Trump suppression of any realistic response combined with Republican b.llsh.t and Fox News could result in something close to a genocide.
The true horror is part 3. First was China. Then Europe/US. Third is Africa, India, Indonesia etc. Densely populated urban areas, little to no healthcare in rural areas, too poor to lock down.
And remember that if you botch the exit, the carnival of reaction may be coming to a town near you.
Fintan O'Toole
Fintan O'Toole