COVID-19

[headshot]

Looks like the US is having similar issues on household food and supplies:

At one food pantry in Central Texas, the queue of cars waiting to pick up boxes of food stretches a quarter-mile. In Dayton, Ohio, the line extends about a mile.

In Pittsburgh, it’s miles, plural, as families wait hours so they won’t go hungry.

Across the country, one of the less visible parts of the social safety net — tens of thousands of food pantries and food banks — is starting to fray. The federal government must do more before it unravels.

In a country where millions of guns are freely available, that’s terrifying.

[mediocrity511]

I think milk is probably a good indicator. People will still use a similar amount of milk, and it has a short shelf life, so by now the commercial supply chain would be empty. While places like restaurants might get large quantities, it seems to be still in sizes sold at retail, so we would expect possible restrictions on the sizes available (as packaging facilities might not be able to switch to smaller sizes) but supply shouldn't be far off the level of what people want, since the cows still need to be milked.

In contrast, packaged meat should be problematic as I expect a lot of catering was being supplied in bulk and, although this could be sold via butchers' shops, customers are going to want it pre-packaged to avoid personal interactions.


Can people think of better examples of goods that ought to distinguish between panic buying and supply chain switching?

Flour and eggs are a curious outlier and I'm not clear why. Most of the supermarket shelves have returned to a semblance of normality but (when I last shopped on Tues) were still swept clear of flour and almost devoid of eggs.

I don't know who's doing it, but it's going to be one hell of a cake when they're finished.

Flour is people planning on baking during extended lockdowns, you also can't get hold of yeast for love nor money.

[Gfamily]

Flour is people planning on baking during extended lockdowns, you also can't get hold of yeast for love nor money.

A cultivar from a Thrush infection is one way you might get yeast for love.

[Martin Y]

Flour is people planning on baking during extended lockdowns, you also can't get hold of yeast for love nor money.

Yeah, I blame bakeoff, but seriously I would have thought people would have filled their cupboards by now.

I understand that flour keeps for ages while bread doesn't but it would just be nice to have some because home baked bread is so good and it's something to do. Maybe I just answered my own question. OTOH having discovered during that very hot recent summer (when was that, 2017?) that a sliced loaf keeps fresh literally for weeks in the fridge, I'm not actually worried about running out of bread.

[Martin Y]

Flour is people planning on baking during extended lockdowns, you also can't get hold of yeast for love nor money.

A cultivar from a Thrush infection is one way you might get yeast for love.

That's not my familiar sourdough recipe but noted, thanks.

[bagpuss]

Flour is people planning on baking during extended lockdowns, you also can't get hold of yeast for love nor money.

Yeah, I blame bakeoff, but seriously I would have thought people would have filled their cupboards by now.

I understand that flour keeps for ages while bread doesn't but it would just be nice to have some because home baked bread is so good and it's something to do. Maybe I just answered my own question. OTOH having discovered during that very hot recent summer (when was that, 2017?) that a sliced loaf keeps fresh literally for weeks in the fridge, I'm not actually worried about running out of bread.

On my FB timeline, there are many many pictures of baked cakes and biscuits being shared. People are doing fun stuff with their kids that they don't normally get time to do, and that includes baking.

In our case, I've got through more flour and eggs than normal as 1. It was my birthday so I baked myself a cake because I had f.ck all else to look forward to, 2. The bagkitten and I made biscuits as she's home for a lot more meals and I had to have something to fulfil her expectations of pudding after every meal and 3. We had omelettes for lunch one day and boof! that's 8 eggs gone (3 each for Mr bagpuss and me, 2 for the bagkitten) .

While this is obviously not true of everyone, something similar will be true for a lot of people. People who have kids who eat hot meals at school and who tend to buy lunch for themselves when they're at work, are suddenly having to provide a lot more meals for everyone. Excluding breakfast, I've gone from shopping for about 20-25 person-meals per week* to shopping for 42 person-meals per week so I'm generally buying more of everything, and a lot more of some things that I just didn't need to bother about before - mainly weekday lunches. I've bought more bread in the last 3 weeks than in the previous 3 months, and that included Christmas or it would have been much longer.

*While I did buy more meals than this, they were through routes other than the supermarkets - school + childminder for the bagkitten, sandwich shops etc for me.

[bjn]

Flour is people planning on baking during extended lockdowns, you also can't get hold of yeast for love nor money.

Yeah, I blame bakeoff, but seriously I would have thought people would have filled their cupboards by now.

I understand that flour keeps for ages while bread doesn't but it would just be nice to have some because home baked bread is so good and it's something to do. Maybe I just answered my own question. OTOH having discovered during that very hot recent summer (when was that, 2017?) that a sliced loaf keeps fresh literally for weeks in the fridge, I'm not actually worried about running out of bread.

On my FB timeline, there are many many pictures of baked cakes and biscuits being shared. People are doing fun stuff with their kids that they don't normally get time to do, and that includes baking.

In our case, I've got through more flour and eggs than normal as 1. It was my birthday so I baked myself a cake because I had f.ck all else to look forward to, 2. The bagkitten and I made biscuits as she's home for a lot more meals and I had to have something to fulfil her expectations of pudding after every meal and 3. We had omelettes for lunch one day and boof! that's 8 eggs gone (3 each for Mr bagpuss and me, 2 for the bagkitten) .

While this is obviously not true of everyone, something similar will be true for a lot of people. People who have kids who eat hot meals at school and who tend to buy lunch for themselves when they're at work, are suddenly having to provide a lot more meals for everyone. Excluding breakfast, I've gone from shopping for about 20-25 person-meals per week* to shopping for 42 person-meals per week so I'm generally buying more of everything, and a lot more of some things that I just didn't need to bother about before - mainly weekday lunches. I've bought more bread in the last 3 weeks than in the previous 3 months, and that included Christmas or it would have been much longer.

*While I did buy more meals than this, they were through routes other than the supermarkets - school + childminder for the bagkitten, sandwich shops etc for me.

Very similar situation to us. We are going through flour, eggs, milk and rice faster than normal because more home cooking and baking.

MrsBJN's birthday yesterday, I had to go out to the local shops for some birthday cake supplies + perishables top ups. Was only allowed 1 bag of SR flour, 1 bottle of milk and they had no eggs left.

[bagpuss]

MrsBJN's birthday yesterday, I had to go out to the local shops for some birthday cake supplies + perishables top ups. Was only allowed 1 bag of SR flour, 1 bottle of milk and they had no eggs left.

I hope you managed to create some kind of cake for her and she had an OK birthday, in the circs.

[AMS]

Home baking is not just food but also something to do with your sudden surplus of spare time.

Edit - somehow missed all the other replies! Didn't realise I wasn't on the last page...

[Bird on a Fire]

I haven't really seen any shortages of anything much here in Portugal, other than fresh fruit and veg during the first few days when the town market was shut down (now reinstated).

I wonder if this is to do with consumer behaviour or supply chain management? I suspect the former.

[monkey]

Flour is people planning on baking during extended lockdowns, you also can't get hold of yeast for love nor money.

Yeah, I blame bakeoff, but seriously I would have thought people would have filled their cupboards by now.

I understand that flour keeps for ages while bread doesn't but it would just be nice to have some because home baked bread is so good and it's something to do. Maybe I just answered my own question. OTOH having discovered during that very hot recent summer (when was that, 2017?) that a sliced loaf keeps fresh literally for weeks in the fridge, I'm not actually worried about running out of bread.

My partner's dad used to run a flour mill till recently, he said he'd prioritise supplying Warburton's than Tescos if he had to make the choice. So if the commercial bakers are getting through their stockpiles, the flour will be going to them, rather than the supermarket shelves.

[tom p]

The latest numbers are in. 563 new deaths, taking the total to 2,352. This is pretty much exactly in line with the trend (the doubling rate hasn't changed at all from yesterday). Expected rise tomorrow is around 600. At this rate, we should hit 10,000 deaths in less than a week.

Our latest count is around halfway between those for Italy on the 16 March (2,158) and 17 March (2,503), so we're around 14.5 days behind them.

That's worrying.
The UK was about 16 days behind Italy a few weeks ago, same as NL. If you're catching them up, then it's brown trousers time.
The Netherlands has moved from 16 days behind to 20 days behind over the last couple of weeks since strict social distancing was implemented and all schools closed (NL closed schools a few days before UK)

[tom p]

Flour is people planning on baking during extended lockdowns, you also can't get hold of yeast for love nor money.

Yeah, I blame bakeoff, but seriously I would have thought people would have filled their cupboards by now.

I understand that flour keeps for ages while bread doesn't but it would just be nice to have some because home baked bread is so good and it's something to do. Maybe I just answered my own question. OTOH having discovered during that very hot recent summer (when was that, 2017?) that a sliced loaf keeps fresh literally for weeks in the fridge, I'm not actually worried about running out of bread.

Even here in the land of windmills flour is all sold out.
what do those f.cking windmills even do?

[El Pollo Diablo]

New numbers - highest daily rise thus far, of 684, against yesterday's prediction of 738. Doubling rate changed slightly from 3.08 days to 3.09. Total deaths now 3,605. Expectation for tomorrow given the trend is 886 deaths.

14 days before 5pm yesterday was 5pm on 19 March, when Italy had 3,405 deaths. So we're now something like 13.7 days behind them.

Note that mikeh has some concerns about the actual dates of death, because the deaths reported on any given day could have actually occurred days ago, but this data is only available in masked press releases that aren't being published publicly.

[Pucksoppet]

Edit - somehow missed all the other replies! Didn't realise I wasn't on the last page...

I'm glad I'm not the only one that happens to.

[Bird on a Fire]

Flour is people planning on baking during extended lockdowns, you also can't get hold of yeast for love nor money.

Yeah, I blame bakeoff, but seriously I would have thought people would have filled their cupboards by now.

I understand that flour keeps for ages while bread doesn't but it would just be nice to have some because home baked bread is so good and it's something to do. Maybe I just answered my own question. OTOH having discovered during that very hot recent summer (when was that, 2017?) that a sliced loaf keeps fresh literally for weeks in the fridge, I'm not actually worried about running out of bread.

Even here in the land of windmills flour is all sold out.
what do those f.cking windmills even do?

Historically I think they were mostly used to drive water pumps to keep the polders drained, rather than actually milling anything. These days I assume that that function is performed by more modern technology, and the mills are largely ornamental.

[Little waster]

Even here in the land of windmills flour is all sold out.
what do those f.cking windmills even do?

Historically I think they were mostly used to drive water pumps to keep the polders drained, rather than actually milling anything. These days I assume that that function is performed by more modern technology, and the mills are largely ornamental.

Nah they make all the wind like a big fan.

That's why when they spin really fast it is very windy.

ETA: That's how we should beat global warming, attach petrol generators to all the windmills and wind turbines in the world and then run them real fast to blow cooling air all over the planet. Genius!

[purplehaze]

Looks like the US is having similar issues on household food and supplies:

At one food pantry in Central Texas, the queue of cars waiting to pick up boxes of food stretches a quarter-mile. In Dayton, Ohio, the line extends about a mile.

In Pittsburgh, it’s miles, plural, as families wait hours so they won’t go hungry.

Across the country, one of the less visible parts of the social safety net — tens of thousands of food pantries and food banks — is starting to fray. The federal government must do more before it unravels.

It very much points to looting and riots if things aren't sorted out PDQ.

Just like Contagion. Really wish I hadn't re watched that film a couple of days ago.

[FlammableFlower]

Not sure entirely where to put this... but wow, isn't he presidential? Even in official letters...

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-st ... e-schumer/

[Little waster]

Not sure entirely where to put this... but wow, isn't he presidential? Even in official letters...

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-st ... e-schumer/

I may be a bit of an idealist but I would have assumed the POTUS in the middle of a WW2-level crisis would have better things to do than personally dictate every minor bit of correspondence to come out of the WH.

I'd also assume somewhere along the line someone with a higher IQ and a better grasp of English would have cleaned it up a bit or even better "accidentally" dropped it in a shredder. I dunno perhaps that illegal immigrant from Costa Rico who cleans the West Wing toilets is free, assuming she hasn't already been made Secretary of Defense.

[bjn]

MrsBJN's birthday yesterday, I had to go out to the local shops for some birthday cake supplies + perishables top ups. Was only allowed 1 bag of SR flour, 1 bottle of milk and they had no eggs left.

I hope you managed to create some kind of cake for her and she had an OK birthday, in the circs.

Littlest managed to put together a carrot cake. We had Japanese rice with hayashi stew and tempura veggies. It was all very nice. The local shops had a whole swathe of tempura mix.

[bob sterman]

With Matt Hancock turning up at the opening of the Nightingale Hospital not looking 100%.

Does anyone know - where did the UK get the scientific evidence to support its 7 day isolation period for people with symptoms of COVID-19 (and in Hancock's case confirmed to have it)?

I've been following the published research since January and have not seen anything to justify such a short isolation period in confirmed cases.

[Woodchopper]

With Matt Hancock turning up at the opening of the Nightingale Hospital not looking 100%.

Does anyone know - where did the UK get the scientific evidence to support its 7 day isolation period for people with symptoms of COVID-19 (and in Hancock's case confirmed to have it)?

I've been following the published research since January and have not seen anything to justify such a short isolation period in confirmed cases.

SARS-CoV-2 virus can initially be detected 1–2 days prior to symptom onset in upper respiratory tract samples; the virus can persist for 7–12 days in moderate cases and up to 2 weeks in severe cases (WHO mission to China Report) [1]. In faeces, viral RNA has been detected in up to 30% of patients from day 5 after onset and up to 4 to 5 weeks in moderate cases. The significance of faecal viral shedding for transmission still has to be clarified [1].
Prolonged viral shedding from nasopharyngeal aspirates – up to at least 24 days after symptom onset – was reported among COVID-19 patients in Singapore [2]. Researchers from Germany also reported prolonged viral shedding with high sputum viral load after recovery in a convalescent patient [3]. They acknowledge, however, that viability of SARS-CoV-2 detected by qRT-PCR in this patient has not been proven by viral culture.
Prolonged virus shedding has been observed among convalescent children after mild infections, in respiratory tract samples (22 days) and faeces (between two weeks and more than one month) [4].
A shift from positive oral swab samples during early infection to positive rectal swab samples during late infection was observed on Chinese patients; the authors raised concerns about the fact that COVID-19 patients were discharged from hospital on the basis of negative oral swabs [5].

From here: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/defaul ... iteria.pdf

[discovolante]

Not sure entirely where to put this... but wow, isn't he presidential? Even in official letters...

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-st ... e-schumer/

What an absolute bellend.

[Little waster]

Not sure entirely where to put this... but wow, isn't he presidential? Even in official letters...

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-st ... e-schumer/

What an absolute bellend.

That's a bit harsh, I'm sure our blossoming fire-hazard is perfectly pleasant IRL.