COVID-19

[lpm]

The govt claimed on 12 March it had four weeks warning of what would happen. So we shouldn't let them claim they had two weeks warning.

They should be held to it - a journalist should ask: Italy had no warning, UK had four weeks, so how the f.ck did we end up at a similar death toll now.

[shpalman]

The govt claimed on 12 March it had four weeks warning of what would happen. So we shouldn't let them claim they had two weeks warning.

They should be held to it - a journalist should ask: Italy had no warning, UK had four weeks, so how the f.ck did we end up at a similar death toll now.

Good point.

[lpm]

The are several points related to comparisons which are probably all true:

Saying that the UK has the highest number of Covid deaths in Europe isn't known at this point. We know that we have the highest number counted so far, but there are important differences in how different deaths are registered and counted in each nation that mean we can't say that for certain yet.

This is a temporary problem. Only lasts while death tolls are pretty similar.

The govt is making strong efforts to remove the problem, by putting clear blue water between the UK stats and the rest of Europe. We're steadily moving ahead, with a >500 per day count while rivals can only manage about 300 (Italy, France, Belgium), or a mere 100 (Germany, Sweden), or a barely noticeable 20-30 (Netherlands, Switzerland, Portugal).

[shpalman]

The are several points related to comparisons which are probably all true:

Saying that the UK has the highest number of Covid deaths in Europe isn't known at this point. We know that we have the highest number counted so far, but there are important differences in how different deaths are registered and counted in each nation that mean we can't say that for certain yet.

This is a temporary problem. Only lasts while death tolls are pretty similar.

The govt is making strong efforts to remove the problem, by putting clear blue water between the UK stats and the rest of Europe. We're steadily moving ahead, with a >500 per day count while rivals can only manage about 300 (Italy, France, Belgium), or a mere 100 (Germany, Sweden), or a barely noticeable 20-30 (Netherlands, Switzerland, Portugal).

They're also on course to remove that 6 million difference in population between the UK and Italy, to make things more easily comparable.

[Gentleman Jim]

I saw one right wing commentator saying that non-Covid19 "Lockdown Deaths" are appoaching Covid deaths so we need to get rid of the Lockdown, which is an interesting viewpoint

I for one am certain that the recent finding that ethnic minorities appear more susceptible to COVID-19 than whites will not further intensify the calls from the rightwing death cult to lift the lockdown prematurely.

I'm sure they'll even come up with a catchy hashtag referencing the importance of the lives of non-caucasian people.

In Afro-American circles, this is already taken as granted. See what happened in Georgia, esp Atlanta

[Woodchopper]

A systematic review and meta-analysis of published research data on COVID-19 infection-fatality rates
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 1.full.pdf

(Posted earlier in blog form)

[plodder]

A systematic review and meta-analysis of published research data on COVID-19 infection-fatality rates
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 1.full.pdf

(Posted earlier in blog form)

Some curly haired bloke has also done some epidemiology....

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20092999v1

[AMS]

One for BOAF, states that the UK government deliberately didn’t use the country’s private testing capacity as it wanted to maintain central control.
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/stat ... 21953?s=21

Thanks.

I can certainly see the value in the Gov having access to all the results. But why not just demand timely reporting from private/uni labs? It's absolutely the wrong time to start trying to build new labs from scratch - especially while simultaneously sending practically everyone who works in an appropriate lab to sit around at home.

I thought the Conservatives were all about contracting the private sector and reducing government control?

It's like they've tried to find as many ways as possible to f.ck this up, even when following their ideology would have stopped-clockly resulted in better outcomes.

I suspect there are similar issues brewing in the home grown contact-tracing app.

[PeteB]

IFR= 0.75% based on random testing leaked to the times, 5 million infected based on James Annan model

(or closer to 1,5% if you go on excess deaths)

https://twitter.com/jamesannan/status/1 ... 86528?s=20

[shpalman]

IFR= 0.75% based on random testing leaked to the times, 5 million infected based on James Annan model

(or closer to 1,5% if you go on excess deaths)

https://twitter.com/jamesannan/status/1 ... 86528?s=20

tl;dr is that his model nailed it, yet again, and that there are about 16-18000 new cases per day at the moment instead of the official 5-6000.

Italy's death rate is coming down in a way which follows the new cases per day (with the peak in death rate being maybe a week or so behind the peak in new cases) and I would argue that the unexplained excess deaths were all at the beginning when the cases were ramping up and testing was lagging behind. ICU and hospital occupation have also been decreasing faster than overall case numbers. This suggests to me that the ramping up of testing is making the number of detected cases tend slowly towards the true number.

A week ago there were about 2000 new cases detected here, the death rate is about 300 per day over the past few days, so it still suggests we only detect about 5-10% of the true number of cases. The peak at the beginning of April could have been as many as 250,000 infected, of which nearly 100,000 in Lombardy.

[Woodchopper]

IFR= 0.75% based on random testing leaked to the times, 5 million infected based on James Annan model

(or closer to 1,5% if you go on excess deaths)

https://twitter.com/jamesannan/status/1 ... 86528?s=20

Here's what the Times article states:

Initial data from a sampling exercise by the Office for National Statistics suggests that prevalence of the infection in the population is between 0.2 per cent and 0.6 per cent, according to a well-placed source. This translates to up to 400,000 people infected nationwide.

Yesterday Sir Ian Diamond, head of the ONS, acknowledged that there were at least three times as many new cases every day as recorded by official figures. He agreed with estimates that daily cases were running at about 20,000, while it is understood that cabinet has been told that the figure is between 16,000 and 18,000.

Official data confirmed by positive tests showed 5,614 cases yesterday. A much higher daily infection rate significantly complicates the government’s plans to control the next stage of the epidemic. It makes the strategy of tracing the contacts of known cases and isolating them to stop the spread of infection much more difficult.

Professor John Edmunds of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, who sits on the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), warned that the present level of cases made it “probably impossible” to control the pandemic through contact tracing. “The incidence has to come right down for contact tracing to be feasible,” he warned MPs on the science and technology committee. The Isle of Wight is trialling the trace and test app but the hope is that its use can be extended elsewhere.

Sir Ian agreed with Professor Edmunds’s assessment that the R number had risen and was just below one, the point at which cases grow again.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coro ... -62z2brv36

[Woodchopper]

IFR= 0.75% based on random testing leaked to the times, 5 million infected based on James Annan model

(or closer to 1,5% if you go on excess deaths)

https://twitter.com/jamesannan/status/1 ... 86528?s=20

An IFR of 0.75 is in line with what has been found elsewhere where better quality methods have been used. Looks plausible.

Five million are about 7% of the UK population. Over fifty thousand excess deaths and nowhere near herd mortality.

[headshot]

Herd mortality would be a brave policy choice, but would at least eradicate the disease.

[Woodchopper]

Herd mortality would be a brave policy choice, but would at least eradicate the disease.

Whoops.

[EACLucifer]

Brave in the Sir Humphrey sense of the word I hope, as it would mean something like 400000 deaths, and many more impaired.

[JellyandJackson]

One for BOAF, states that the UK government deliberately didn’t use the country’s private testing capacity as it wanted to maintain central control.
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/stat ... 21953?s=21

Thanks.

I can certainly see the value in the Gov having access to all the results. But why not just demand timely reporting from private/uni labs? It's absolutely the wrong time to start trying to build new labs from scratch - especially while simultaneously sending practically everyone who works in an appropriate lab to sit around at home.

I thought the Conservatives were all about contracting the private sector and reducing government control?

It's like they've tried to find as many ways as possible to f.ck this up, even when following their ideology would have stopped-clockly resulted in better outcomes.

I’m fairly sure I heard George Osborne saying on the PM programme (radio 4) yesterday that the delay in testing was down to NHS bureaucracy dragging its heals and not involving the private sector.

[sTeamTraen]

Brave in the Sir Humphrey sense of the word I hope, as it would mean something like 400000 deaths, and many more impaired.

I think you may have missed the (accidental) joke.

[tom p]

One for BOAF, states that the UK government deliberately didn’t use the country’s private testing capacity as it wanted to maintain central control.
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/stat ... 21953?s=21

Thanks.

I can certainly see the value in the Gov having access to all the results. But why not just demand timely reporting from private/uni labs? It's absolutely the wrong time to start trying to build new labs from scratch - especially while simultaneously sending practically everyone who works in an appropriate lab to sit around at home.

I thought the Conservatives were all about contracting the private sector and reducing government control?

It's like they've tried to find as many ways as possible to f.ck this up, even when following their ideology would have stopped-clockly resulted in better outcomes.

I’m fairly sure I heard George Osborne saying on the PM programme (radio 4) yesterday that the delay in testing was down to NHS bureaucracy dragging its heals and not involving the private sector.

Well, he would say that, wouldn't he?
I wouldn't trust a single thing that lying piece of sh.t says, especially not if what he's saying attacks a public service while defending the tories.
He may have fallen out with Johnson because Johnson beat him in 2016, but he's still a dyed-in-the-wool tory and wants to defend his legacy.

Also, I wish the NHS would drag its heals. 10,000 sequins for every patient!

[jimbob]

The are several points related to comparisons which are probably all true:

Saying that the UK has the highest number of Covid deaths in Europe isn't known at this point. We know that we have the highest number counted so far, but there are important differences in how different deaths are registered and counted in each nation that mean we can't say that for certain yet.

But comparison at the fine level is mostly b.llsh.t anyway. It doesn't really matter whether we are #1 or #2 or #3. What matters is - do we have a big number? Could we have done better? Have other countries similar to us (eg Germany) done better? (Yes, yes and yes)

Also true is that our news media, (and I'm being generous about motivation) keen to avoid bringing everyone down at a time of national crisis, have in large part woefully dropped the ball on holding the government to account. Other countries are looking at what we've done and are aghast at the mistakes made, the lies said, the deaths we've had.

But, the "highest number of deaths in Europe" line, regardless of its technical accuracy, is sticking. The express and metro have both put the claim on their front pages, and it will soon become true to the general public. By the time any later analysis is done looking at properly comparable numbers, it will be too late. If a second wave hits, and there's no reason to think it won't, big questions will start to be asked.

Thanks for this.

I would also add that these excuses for whether the UK or Italy is worse is ignoring that Italy basically gave the UK two weeks' warning about what was about to happen and that the UK ignored it.

It.

Did.

Not.

Have.

To.

Be.

This.

Way.

Exactly - especially as South Korea showed how to do it properly with *less* warning than Italy.

[Woodchopper]

Estimate that 3% of Belgians have been infected.
https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2020/04/23 ... rotection/

Which is a low number given the number of deaths.

[JellyandJackson]

Thanks.

I can certainly see the value in the Gov having access to all the results. But why not just demand timely reporting from private/uni labs? It's absolutely the wrong time to start trying to build new labs from scratch - especially while simultaneously sending practically everyone who works in an appropriate lab to sit around at home.

I thought the Conservatives were all about contracting the private sector and reducing government control?

It's like they've tried to find as many ways as possible to f.ck this up, even when following their ideology would have stopped-clockly resulted in better outcomes.

I’m fairly sure I heard George Osborne saying on the PM programme (radio 4) yesterday that the delay in testing was down to NHS bureaucracy dragging its heals and not involving the private sector.

Well, he would say that, wouldn't he?
I wouldn't trust a single thing that lying piece of sh.t says, especially not if what he's saying attacks a public service while defending the tories.
He may have fallen out with Johnson because Johnson beat him in 2016, but he's still a dyed-in-the-wool tory and wants to defend his legacy.

Also, I wish the NHS would drag its heals. 10,000 sequins for every patient!

Oh I agree on all counts (and damn you auto spelling correct, though the mental image supplied is a nice one!). Osborne is a nasty piece of work. It was a very clever response though, very quick, just mentioned it in passing as part of a larger answer, and so Evan Davis didn’t pick him up on it.

[EACLucifer]

There's been a lot of the bizarre no-excuses lately. Things they rush out in the hope people won't think about the implications. "It's NHS Bureaucracy" - as if the Government was somehow unable to access private sector capacity directly, or "It's not that we have no PPE, it's just the logistics aren't in place to actually deliver it" - as if they, the government, were not responsible for those logistics. Blaming it on a system for scientific advice they have presided over for a decade with advisors they appointed is another one.

Lots of "It's not X, it's Y", when X and Y are both the responsibility of the government.

ETA: Kind of as if someone were saying "It wasn't my drunk driving that caused the fatal crash, it was my failure to maintain my car in a roadworthy condition"

[Trinucleus]

People arriving in the UK will have to stay isolated for two weeks

Couldn't they just have a test?

[shpalman]

Wouldn't it make more sense to quarantine people on the way out of the UK?

[AMS]

Wouldn't it make more sense to quarantine people on the way out of the UK?

Depends where they are arriving from. Arrivals from the US are probably the biggest risk now.