Yet any criticism of the government's performance is 'politicising the crisis'; despicable, and worth pointing out the double standards wherever comments are allowed..Vertigowooyay wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2020 7:30 amAbsolutely raging at the front page of the Mail this morning.
E9D0E70C-7266-4F1A-8713-0CC4733A05E5.jpeg
COVID-19
Re: COVID-19
My avatar was a scientific result that was later found to be 'mistaken' - I rarely claim to be 100% correct
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!
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- After Pie
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Re: COVID-19
We very much hope that such a situation will arise soon. The whole point of lockdown is to get our number of cases very low. At that point, unless we're the last in the world to achieve this, then we obviously do need to be quarantining. Theoretically, we might not need to do so until then, but our record so far in introducing measures shows that we are thoroughly incompetent and need a long time to get anything working right, so we absolutely should be quarantining now so that we have time to get it working properly by the time it is essential.Fishnut wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2020 6:12 pmThis piece makes a convincing argument that we've left quarantining international travellers too late and it'll do bugger all now.“That sort of policy only reduces risk in the situation where we have very low case numbers and origin countries have much higher numbers.”
Re: COVID-19
I'll quote myself on TwitterFishnut wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2020 8:24 amf.cking hell. NO-ONE SHOULD HAVE TO BE A HERO. This isn't a war, this is a public health crisis. If we want things to get back to normal (and tbh 'normal' wasn't that great for a vast number of people) we need to stop pretending that this pandemic will be over if we just wish hard enough.Vertigowooyay wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2020 7:30 amAbsolutely raging at the front page of the Mail this morning.
E9D0E70C-7266-4F1A-8713-0CC4733A05E5.jpeg
https://twitter.com/ParkinJim/status/12 ... 65922?s=20
Exactly, I don't want heroes. I want competent staff given the tools to treat patients to the best known practice and in a safe and comfortable working environment.
Staff being heroes shows that the system has failed
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation
Re: COVID-19
No, we should get behind Boris in this time of national crisis.Gfamily wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2020 11:45 pmYet any criticism of the government's performance is 'politicising the crisis'; despicable, and worth pointing out the double standards wherever comments are allowed..Vertigowooyay wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2020 7:30 amAbsolutely raging at the front page of the Mail this morning.
E9D0E70C-7266-4F1A-8713-0CC4733A05E5.jpeg
It undermined the war effort in 1940 for there to have been a vote of no-confidence in the government after the Norway Campaign. The UK should have stuck with the known leadership of Chamberlain.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation
Re: COVID-19
Exactly, I've said elsewhere that not testing and isolating, coupled with quarantine for airport arrivals is guaranteeing failure.Millennie Al wrote: ↑Sat May 16, 2020 2:16 amWe very much hope that such a situation will arise soon. The whole point of lockdown is to get our number of cases very low. At that point, unless we're the last in the world to achieve this, then we obviously do need to be quarantining. Theoretically, we might not need to do so until then, but our record so far in introducing measures shows that we are thoroughly incompetent and need a long time to get anything working right, so we absolutely should be quarantining now so that we have time to get it working properly by the time it is essential.Fishnut wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2020 6:12 pmThis piece makes a convincing argument that we've left quarantining international travellers too late and it'll do bugger all now.“That sort of policy only reduces risk in the situation where we have very low case numbers and origin countries have much higher numbers.”
At the moment it might be throwing embers onto the butning woodpile, but if we've stamped out our own fires, we can't prevent new fires without stopping those.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation
Re: COVID-19
All the better to work out where the knife should go in?jimbob wrote: ↑Sat May 16, 2020 3:16 amNo, we should get behind Boris in this time of national crisis.Gfamily wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2020 11:45 pmYet any criticism of the government's performance is 'politicising the crisis'; despicable, and worth pointing out the double standards wherever comments are allowed..Vertigowooyay wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2020 7:30 amAbsolutely raging at the front page of the Mail this morning.
E9D0E70C-7266-4F1A-8713-0CC4733A05E5.jpeg
"My interest is in the future, because I'm going to spend the rest of my life there"
Re: COVID-19
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation
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- After Pie
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Re: COVID-19
When did the virus originate in the US?
A legitimate Question: when did COVID-19 first appear in the U.S.?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XVZMb5oOOCE
A legitimate Question: when did COVID-19 first appear in the U.S.?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XVZMb5oOOCE
Masking forever
Putin is a monster.
Russian socialism will rise again
Putin is a monster.
Russian socialism will rise again
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Re: COVID-19
The genetic evolution of the virus has been mapped https://nextstrain.org/ncov/globalHerainestold wrote: ↑Sun May 17, 2020 2:45 amWhen did the virus originate in the US?
A legitimate Question: when did COVID-19 first appear in the U.S.?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XVZMb5oOOCE
The origin of all the identified strains has been traced back to Wuhan in early December 2019.
Given the speed by which people can travel round the world any cases outside found outside Wuhan a few weeks later add some details but don't change our understanding of the spread of the disease. It doesn't matter that the Frenchman who contracted Covid-19 had never been to Wuhan. All that is necessary is that there was a chain of contact with someone who had.
As for any claimed cases outside Wuhan from before early December lets apply Occam's razor.
Enormously more likely than re-writing evolution are explanations such as a) false positive tests, b) coincidence (eg someone caught influenza earlier and subsequently also had Covid-19), c) people who thought they had Covid-19 and weren't tested didn't actually have it. Given the enormous number of tests and cases its not surprising that the above might happen.
Your video is better off in the Covid Woo thread.
Re: COVID-19
I think these lines are key,jimbob wrote: ↑Sat May 16, 2020 11:25 pmDamning editorial in the BMJ on Friday
https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m1932
It feels very much like the government has lost sight (if it ever even had it in its sights) that the reason we are doing all this is to try and protect lives.Above all, the response to covid-19 is not about flattening epidemic curves, modelling, or epidemiology. It is about protecting lives and communities most obviously at risk in our unequal society.
it's okay to say "I don't know"
Re: COVID-19
Exactly.Fishnut wrote: ↑Sun May 17, 2020 7:05 amI think these lines are key,jimbob wrote: ↑Sat May 16, 2020 11:25 pmDamning editorial in the BMJ on Friday
https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m1932It feels very much like the government has lost sight (if it ever even had it in its sights) that the reason we are doing all this is to try and protect lives.Above all, the response to covid-19 is not about flattening epidemic curves, modelling, or epidemiology. It is about protecting lives and communities most obviously at risk in our unequal society.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation
Re: COVID-19
Also this episode of More or Less at about 13 minutes in is utterly scathing about the government's testing statistics.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000j2r7
By making the test numbers meaningless, we cannot see how to improve it or indeed if actions have a positive or negative impact.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000j2r7
By making the test numbers meaningless, we cannot see how to improve it or indeed if actions have a positive or negative impact.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation
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Re: COVID-19
It doesn't matter if its soldiers, nurses or teachers, there's one thing consistent when society labels an entire category of people heroes; that they are happy putting them in harms way and seeing some die.Vertigowooyay wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2020 7:30 amAbsolutely raging at the front page of the Mail this morning.
E9D0E70C-7266-4F1A-8713-0CC4733A05E5.jpeg
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Re: COVID-19
That and, as far as I recall, it's currently forecast to have a bigger economic hit than it's locked down neighbours, as well as the higher death rate. It's not protect lives or the economy - it's protect lives and the economy, or kill more people and hurt the economy. Unfortunately, ignorant twunts seem to think that it's an either or, and in their rush to show how much they prefer money to human life, are harming the thing they are purporting to protect, while still paying that indefensible price in lives.Woodchopper wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2020 9:26 pmThe other thing about Sweden is it’s partial lockdown started earlier than in Britain. People wanting a ‘Swedish strategy’ tend to neglect the part which would have required that Boris Johnson took it seriously in February.Little waster wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2020 12:55 pm"For christ-sake someone get Simon Jenkins enrolled in a basic statistics course before he dips his toe into anything sciencey again" #43 in an occasional series.
Tl;dr. Sweden and the UK originally didn't lockdown, Norway and Denmark did. Partially-locked down Sweden has had 10-times the deaths of it's comparable completely-locked down neighbours but only 70% of the deaths of the partially-locked down UK, it is almost as if one is a vast sparsely-populated backwater and the other is one of the densest-populated and most globalised places on Earth. Therefore the Swedes (and incidentally myself) were right.
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Re: COVID-19
Why do you love posting the b.llsh.t propaganda of a fascist regime committing genocide? Woodchopper's already debunked your shite, so all that's left for me to do is ask why you keep ducking questions and challenges re the Chinese regime's abhorrent treatment of the Uighurs and many others, and how you sleep at night?Herainestold wrote: ↑Sun May 17, 2020 2:45 amWhen did the virus originate in the US?
A legitimate Question: when did COVID-19 first appear in the U.S.?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XVZMb5oOOCE
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Re: COVID-19
I think Brecht put it most memorably - "Unhappy is the land that needs heroes" (translations vary slightly)jimbob wrote: ↑Sat May 16, 2020 3:07 amI'll quote myself on TwitterFishnut wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2020 8:24 amf.cking hell. NO-ONE SHOULD HAVE TO BE A HERO. This isn't a war, this is a public health crisis. If we want things to get back to normal (and tbh 'normal' wasn't that great for a vast number of people) we need to stop pretending that this pandemic will be over if we just wish hard enough.Vertigowooyay wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2020 7:30 amAbsolutely raging at the front page of the Mail this morning.
E9D0E70C-7266-4F1A-8713-0CC4733A05E5.jpeg
https://twitter.com/ParkinJim/status/12 ... 65922?s=20
Exactly, I don't want heroes. I want competent staff given the tools to treat patients to the best known practice and in a safe and comfortable working environment.
Staff being heroes shows that the system has failed
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Re: COVID-19
This is astonishing. 100,000 crew members remain in cruise ship limbo for months
Among other details from this story: Captain Karl Staffan Bengtsson of the Norwegian Bliss appears to be a total c.nt.
Among other details from this story: Captain Karl Staffan Bengtsson of the Norwegian Bliss appears to be a total c.nt.
Something something hammer something something nail
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Re: COVID-19
I have to admit I don't really understand the nextstrain graphs.Woodchopper wrote: ↑Sun May 17, 2020 5:41 amThe genetic evolution of the virus has been mapped https://nextstrain.org/ncov/globalHerainestold wrote: ↑Sun May 17, 2020 2:45 amWhen did the virus originate in the US?
A legitimate Question: when did COVID-19 first appear in the U.S.?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XVZMb5oOOCE
The origin of all the identified strains has been traced back to Wuhan in early December 2019.
Given the speed by which people can travel round the world any cases outside found outside Wuhan a few weeks later add some details but don't change our understanding of the spread of the disease. It doesn't matter that the Frenchman who contracted Covid-19 had never been to Wuhan. All that is necessary is that there was a chain of contact with someone who had.
As for any claimed cases outside Wuhan from before early December lets apply Occam's razor.
Enormously more likely than re-writing evolution are explanations such as a) false positive tests, b) coincidence (eg someone caught influenza earlier and subsequently also had Covid-19), c) people who thought they had Covid-19 and weren't tested didn't actually have it. Given the enormous number of tests and cases its not surprising that the above might happen.
Your video is better off in the Covid Woo thread.
I am wondering about the claims that the virus was killing people in France as early as November. When they went back and looked at older case reports from people who had respiratory ailments last fall, they had some that they re-classified as Covid-19. How does that square with the nextstrain data?
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society ... ysis-chest
Masking forever
Putin is a monster.
Russian socialism will rise again
Putin is a monster.
Russian socialism will rise again
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Re: COVID-19
Wow. That is horrendous.sTeamTraen wrote: ↑Sun May 17, 2020 5:46 pmThis is astonishing. 100,000 crew members remain in cruise ship limbo for months
Among other details from this story: Captain Karl Staffan Bengtsson of the Norwegian Bliss appears to be a total c.nt.
Masking forever
Putin is a monster.
Russian socialism will rise again
Putin is a monster.
Russian socialism will rise again
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Re: COVID-19
French sources state that they didn't reclassify the patients as having had Covid-19, instead that a doctor had examined CT scans and found that some in November were consistent with Covid-19. Which is a long way from a diagnosis.Herainestold wrote: ↑Sun May 17, 2020 5:52 pmI have to admit I don't really understand the nextstrain graphs.Woodchopper wrote: ↑Sun May 17, 2020 5:41 amThe genetic evolution of the virus has been mapped https://nextstrain.org/ncov/globalHerainestold wrote: ↑Sun May 17, 2020 2:45 amWhen did the virus originate in the US?
A legitimate Question: when did COVID-19 first appear in the U.S.?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XVZMb5oOOCE
The origin of all the identified strains has been traced back to Wuhan in early December 2019.
Given the speed by which people can travel round the world any cases outside found outside Wuhan a few weeks later add some details but don't change our understanding of the spread of the disease. It doesn't matter that the Frenchman who contracted Covid-19 had never been to Wuhan. All that is necessary is that there was a chain of contact with someone who had.
As for any claimed cases outside Wuhan from before early December lets apply Occam's razor.
Enormously more likely than re-writing evolution are explanations such as a) false positive tests, b) coincidence (eg someone caught influenza earlier and subsequently also had Covid-19), c) people who thought they had Covid-19 and weren't tested didn't actually have it. Given the enormous number of tests and cases its not surprising that the above might happen.
Your video is better off in the Covid Woo thread.
I am wondering about the claims that the virus was killing people in France as early as November. When they went back and looked at older case reports from people who had respiratory ailments last fall, they had some that they re-classified as Covid-19. How does that square with the nextstrain data?
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society ... ysis-chest
https://www.cnews.fr/france/2020-05-07/ ... le-mois-de
As far as I can see the only sources claiming that the patients had been reclassified are Chinese.
If the French hospital has a blood sample from back then they should be able to test it for antibodies and get a definitive answer. If not then its more complicated because the people who were sick in November may have had Covid-19 since then.
As yet, the earliest confirmed case in France is from 27 December.
Re: COVID-19
They don't crop it it though, if you see they put a lightening mask behind most of the text but there is something underneath, it's like they photoshopped out the kids and replaced them with a whiteboard. It's far worse than just cropping.
To have gone to that much trouble, and presuming they have access to a vast library of pictures, the picture editor could have chosen a teacher who was an ethnic minority.
I don't think this was conscious racism but plain everyday sh.tty bias.
- bob sterman
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Re: COVID-19
It gets even worse, back in late April - David Neeleman (the JetBlue founder who is alleged to have funded the study) was engaging in some Twitter activism in support of Ioannidis (who he supposedly didn't fund)...Woodchopper wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2020 10:41 pmIt gets worse:dyqik wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2020 9:41 pmThis report suggests that there's some f.cking bad science going on from people who should know better.
Buzzfeed News wrote:
JetBlue’s Founder Helped Fund A Stanford Study That Said The Coronavirus Wasn’t That Deadly
A Stanford whistleblower complaint alleges that the controversial John Ioannidis study failed to disclose important financial ties and ignored scientists’ concerns that their antibody test was inaccurate.
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/st ... arya-email
https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status ... 5670232065
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Re: COVID-19
Thanks for the cogent reply. I think this matter needs more investigation , but you are correct the current data does not support community transmission of covid virus in France in November.Woodchopper wrote: ↑Sun May 17, 2020 6:44 pmFrench sources state that they didn't reclassify the patients as having had Covid-19, instead that a doctor had examined CT scans and found that some in November were consistent with Covid-19. Which is a long way from a diagnosis.Herainestold wrote: ↑Sun May 17, 2020 5:52 pmI have to admit I don't really understand the nextstrain graphs.Woodchopper wrote: ↑Sun May 17, 2020 5:41 am
The genetic evolution of the virus has been mapped https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global
The origin of all the identified strains has been traced back to Wuhan in early December 2019.
Given the speed by which people can travel round the world any cases outside found outside Wuhan a few weeks later add some details but don't change our understanding of the spread of the disease. It doesn't matter that the Frenchman who contracted Covid-19 had never been to Wuhan. All that is necessary is that there was a chain of contact with someone who had.
As for any claimed cases outside Wuhan from before early December lets apply Occam's razor.
Enormously more likely than re-writing evolution are explanations such as a) false positive tests, b) coincidence (eg someone caught influenza earlier and subsequently also had Covid-19), c) people who thought they had Covid-19 and weren't tested didn't actually have it. Given the enormous number of tests and cases its not surprising that the above might happen.
Your video is better off in the Covid Woo thread.
I am wondering about the claims that the virus was killing people in France as early as November. When they went back and looked at older case reports from people who had respiratory ailments last fall, they had some that they re-classified as Covid-19. How does that square with the nextstrain data?
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society ... ysis-chest
https://www.cnews.fr/france/2020-05-07/ ... le-mois-de
As far as I can see the only sources claiming that the patients had been reclassified are Chinese.
If the French hospital has a blood sample from back then they should be able to test it for antibodies and get a definitive answer. If not then its more complicated because the people who were sick in November may have had Covid-19 since then.
As yet, the earliest confirmed case in France is from 27 December.
Masking forever
Putin is a monster.
Russian socialism will rise again
Putin is a monster.
Russian socialism will rise again
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Re: COVID-19
Useful summary of why some of the 'its all hysteria' arguments are wrong: https://mattschelling.substack.com/p/yo ... -comparing
eg the IFR of influenza isn't 0.1%
eg the IFR of influenza isn't 0.1%