Reckless public engagement - authorities outside their expertise

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jimbob
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Reckless public engagement - authorities outside their expertise

Post by jimbob » Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:29 am

https://twitter.com/MLevitt_NP2013
Michael Levitt
@MLevitt_NP2013
Stanford Prof. of Biophysics, Cambridge PhD and DSc, 2013 Chemistry Nobel Laureate (complex systems), FRS & US National Academy member, I code well for my age.
United Statesmed.stanford.edu/levitt.htmlJoined September 2016
He seems to be playing from the Global Warming denier playbook
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Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Reckless public engagement - authorities outside their expertise

Post by bagpuss » Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:23 pm

Yes Michael, that's right, and all those charts showing excess deaths far higher than any winter flu season, those are just made up for fun, as well.

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Re: Reckless public engagement - authorities outside their expertise

Post by FlammableFlower » Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:35 pm

bagpuss wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:23 pm
Yes Michael, that's right, and all those charts showing excess deaths far higher than any winter flu season, those are just made up for fun, as well.
Exactly! All those people died, they just happened to have COVID... it definitely didn't contribute in any way to them dying...

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Re: Reckless public engagement - authorities outside their expertise

Post by Bird on a Fire » Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:40 pm

FlammableFlower wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:35 pm
bagpuss wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:23 pm
Yes Michael, that's right, and all those charts showing excess deaths far higher than any winter flu season, those are just made up for fun, as well.
Exactly! All those people died, they just happened to have COVID... it definitely didn't contribute in any way to them dying...
It's just because of all the extra testing. In a normal year we can only distinguish between who's alive and who's dead in extreme cases of death. This year, all of the dead people are getting recorded in the government figures.
Ceterum autem censeo humanitatem esse delendam

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Re: Reckless public engagement - authorities outside their expertise

Post by sTeamTraen » Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:29 pm

FlammableFlower wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:35 pm
bagpuss wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:23 pm
Yes Michael, that's right, and all those charts showing excess deaths far higher than any winter flu season, those are just made up for fun, as well.
Exactly! All those people died, they just happened to have COVID... it definitely didn't contribute in any way to them dying...
And amazingly, all those people with stage 4 cancer and advanced COPD, y'know, the ones who were going to die early, all went to big public gatherings in the first half of March. Presumably they knew they were going to die early and wanted to tick off a visit to Cheltenham or a Stereophonics gig from the bucket list.
Something something hammer something something nail

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Re: Reckless public engagement - authorities outside their expertise

Post by jimbob » Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:12 pm

FlammableFlower wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:35 pm
bagpuss wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:23 pm
Yes Michael, that's right, and all those charts showing excess deaths far higher than any winter flu season, those are just made up for fun, as well.
Exactly! All those people died, they just happened to have COVID... it definitely didn't contribute in any way to them dying...
I've got some nice graphs about excess deaths etc in this thread, from my currently-pinned tweet:

https://twitter.com/ParkinJim/status/12 ... 14240?s=20

And for the excess deaths thing, the "lockdown skeptics" don't seem to explain why, if the deaths are due to the lockdown not the virus, they peak just after the lockdown and then fall, even as the lockdown continues.

Or how second waves happen - if burnout is a thing.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Reckless public engagement - authorities outside their expertise

Post by bagpuss » Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:12 am

jimbob wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:12 pm
FlammableFlower wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:35 pm
bagpuss wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:23 pm
Yes Michael, that's right, and all those charts showing excess deaths far higher than any winter flu season, those are just made up for fun, as well.
Exactly! All those people died, they just happened to have COVID... it definitely didn't contribute in any way to them dying...
I've got some nice graphs about excess deaths etc in this thread, from my currently-pinned tweet:

https://twitter.com/ParkinJim/status/12 ... 14240?s=20

And for the excess deaths thing, the "lockdown skeptics" don't seem to explain why, if the deaths are due to the lockdown not the virus, they peak just after the lockdown and then fall, even as the lockdown continues.

Or how second waves happen - if burnout is a thing.
Hang on - there are people claiming that lockdown has caused the excess deaths? How exactly are they explaining that one? I mean, I can understand there will be lockdown-caused additional deaths, for a variety of reasons, but only in numbers that ought to be at least mostly compensated for by a reduction in deaths due to fewer accidents, etc.

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Re: Reckless public engagement - authorities outside their expertise

Post by jimbob » Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:40 am

bagpuss wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:12 am
jimbob wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:12 pm
FlammableFlower wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:35 pm

Exactly! All those people died, they just happened to have COVID... it definitely didn't contribute in any way to them dying...
I've got some nice graphs about excess deaths etc in this thread, from my currently-pinned tweet:

https://twitter.com/ParkinJim/status/12 ... 14240?s=20

And for the excess deaths thing, the "lockdown skeptics" don't seem to explain why, if the deaths are due to the lockdown not the virus, they peak just after the lockdown and then fall, even as the lockdown continues.

Or how second waves happen - if burnout is a thing.
Hang on - there are people claiming that lockdown has caused the excess deaths? How exactly are they explaining that one? I mean, I can understand there will be lockdown-caused additional deaths, for a variety of reasons, but only in numbers that ought to be at least mostly compensated for by a reduction in deaths due to fewer accidents, etc.
In reply to my posting of the excess deaths in April, compared to their claim that there weere 50k deaths due to the 2017-2018 winter flu season
stunned.PNG
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To be fair, I was indeed stunned by his claim.

If you want to find idiocy, look for the #KBF hashtag, which I think is "keep Britain free"

https://twitter.com/EndUKLockdown1/stat ... 68896?s=20


UK Lockdown Sceptic #KBF
@EndUKLockdown1
·
Jun 8
Many of those due to lockdown and the mass murder that has occurred in care homes by sending Covid patients back into them.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Reckless public engagement - authorities outside their expertise

Post by Gentleman Jim » Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:50 am

Originally from a Global Warming protest, it has been seen since re Covid
Why should we go to school if you won't listen to the educated
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Re: Reckless public engagement - authorities outside their expertise

Post by JQH » Wed Jul 01, 2020 12:41 pm

jimbob wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:40 am

UK Lockdown Sceptic #KBF
@EndUKLockdown1
·
Jun 8
Many of those due to lockdown and the mass murder that has occurred in care homes by sending Covid patients back into them.
Isn't that kind of admitting that Covid does in fact kill people?
And remember that if you botch the exit, the carnival of reaction may be coming to a town near you.

Fintan O'Toole

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Re: Reckless public engagement - authorities outside their expertise

Post by jimbob » Wed Jul 01, 2020 12:50 pm

JQH wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 12:41 pm
jimbob wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:40 am

UK Lockdown Sceptic #KBF
@EndUKLockdown1
·
Jun 8
Many of those due to lockdown and the mass murder that has occurred in care homes by sending Covid patients back into them.
Isn't that kind of admitting that Covid does in fact kill people?
Sadly, it seems to be a common idea that old people don't count
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Reckless public engagement - authorities outside their expertise

Post by Gentleman Jim » Wed Jul 01, 2020 1:10 pm

https://www.acsh.org/news/2020/04/10/mi ... else-14706
Q: Where do you go to find overpaid, under-sane professors, talking about chemistry when they know nothing about it?
A: MIT, the home of Dr. Stephanie Seneff, who has spent a career making up nonsense about glyphosate. And she's outdone herself this time: Glyphosate causes COVID. Nope, not kidding.

A "colleague" of yours, dyqik? ;)
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Re: Reckless public engagement - authorities outside their expertise

Post by Little waster » Wed Jul 01, 2020 1:23 pm

jimbob wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:40 am
look for the #KBF hashtag, which I think is "keep Britain free"
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Re: Reckless public engagement - authorities outside their expertise

Post by bob sterman » Mon Jul 06, 2020 1:36 pm

So now someone from the "Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine (CEBM)" thinks it's time to engage the public with an unusual theory, that he's put together based on the Barcelona sewage pre-print...

Expert: Covid-19 may have been dormant around the world before emerging in China
https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/the-c ... professor/

What on earth does "lying dormant" mean for a virus like SARS-CoV-2 that needs a host to replicate??? E.g. in the UK? Hanging around in some blokes guy until he decides to go to a business conference in the Far East, or maybe go skiing?

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Re: Reckless public engagement - authorities outside their expertise

Post by jimbob » Mon Jul 06, 2020 6:23 pm

bagpuss wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:12 am
jimbob wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:12 pm
FlammableFlower wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:35 pm

Exactly! All those people died, they just happened to have COVID... it definitely didn't contribute in any way to them dying...
I've got some nice graphs about excess deaths etc in this thread, from my currently-pinned tweet:

https://twitter.com/ParkinJim/status/12 ... 14240?s=20

And for the excess deaths thing, the "lockdown skeptics" don't seem to explain why, if the deaths are due to the lockdown not the virus, they peak just after the lockdown and then fall, even as the lockdown continues.

Or how second waves happen - if burnout is a thing.
Hang on - there are people claiming that lockdown has caused the excess deaths? How exactly are they explaining that one? I mean, I can understand there will be lockdown-caused additional deaths, for a variety of reasons, but only in numbers that ought to be at least mostly compensated for by a reduction in deaths due to fewer accidents, etc.
Yes, have at this if you want to prod dangerous fools.

https://twitter.com/ragnar_lives/status ... 34816?s=20
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Reckless public engagement - authorities outside their expertise

Post by jimbob » Tue Jul 28, 2020 7:57 pm

I see Matt Le Tissier has jumped onto that idea that it's no worse than flu.


https://twitter.com/mattletiss7/status/ ... 3770431489


He was also pushing the Corbett Report on vaccines.

Rationalwiki isn't flattering: https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/James_Cor ... ett_Report
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Re: Reckless public engagement - authorities outside their expertise

Post by OneOffDave » Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:19 am

Slightly related to the increased excess deaths figures, we are seeing far far fewer outbreaks of other infectious diseases across England probably as a combination of the lockdown, better hand hygiene and less international travel. So it's not those that are killing people.

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Re: Reckless public engagement - authorities outside their expertise

Post by jimbob » Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:22 am

OneOffDave wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:19 am
Slightly related to the increased excess deaths figures, we are seeing far far fewer outbreaks of other infectious diseases across England probably as a combination of the lockdown, better hand hygiene and less international travel. So it's not those that are killing people.
Yup. Who would have thought it.

I've now come across someone who keeps spamming with a Telegraph article that lockdown *has* killed 21000 people already.

It's odd that it doesn't show up in the excess deaths statistics - unless lockdown happened to kill people just as COVID was, and then declined before lockdown ended.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/0 ... y-experts/

No I'm not going to register to read it. Because, unless it's vastly different from the headline - it's rubbish
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Re: Reckless public engagement - authorities outside their expertise

Post by bob sterman » Sun Aug 02, 2020 5:01 pm

Who needs doctors, virologists and epidemiologists...

...when you've got a sociologist ready to tell you to "calm down, calm down"?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ction.html

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Re: Reckless public engagement - authorities outside their expertise

Post by jimbob » Sun Aug 02, 2020 7:32 pm

bob sterman wrote:
Sun Aug 02, 2020 5:01 pm
Who needs doctors, virologists and epidemiologists...

...when you've got a sociologist ready to tell you to "calm down, calm down"?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ction.html
Alternatively he could just check up with some actuaries to see that he's talking rubbish, and it's more like a decade on average.

https://twitter.com/ParkinJim/status/12 ... 1175044096
The BBC Radio4 programme "More or Less" looked at the idea that those who died would have died soon anyway, and this doesn't look to be the case. They gave previous examples of previous events this did and didn't happen.

https://twitter.com/BBCMoreOrLess/statu ... 1277390850
Or Australia

https://twitter.com/DrZoeHyde/status/12 ... 9191858178

Dr Zoë Hyde
@DrZoeHyde
On average, #COVID19 was associated with 14 years of life lost (YLL) for males, and 11 years for females in Australia.

This is larger than most of the major causes of death, including heart disease. CV19 is associated with substantial premature mortality.

https://t.co/xO1ujs3PHf?amp=1
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Re: Reckless public engagement - authorities outside their expertise

Post by jimbob » Sun Aug 02, 2020 8:03 pm

Here's another -

https://wmbriggs.com/post/30606/

Yes - apparently if this happened in 1830, (or to be fair to the author, 1950) we mightn't spot COVID-19 as such a severe event.
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Re: Reckless public engagement - authorities outside their expertise

Post by warumich » Tue Aug 04, 2020 8:50 am

bob sterman wrote:
Sun Aug 02, 2020 5:01 pm
Who needs doctors, virologists and epidemiologists...

...when you've got a sociologist ready to tell you to "calm down, calm down"?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ction.html
Apologies for getting a bit sensitive on this but Dingwall is a sociologist specialised on public health, and quite a distinguished one too as far as I know, so he's not exactly speaking outside of his expertise here, as you are implying. He'll certainly know a damn sight more about public health policy than your average doctor or biologist.

None of that makes his views correct of course. I'd ordinarily warn to be careful with a daily mail write up of an expert's opinion, but it appears these actually are his thoughts. It's certainly not something I have heard from any of the other public health sociologists I know, so he appears to be a bit of an outlier, like economists for Brexit or the 1% of climate scientists that the "99% consensus" argument implies must exist. But attacking his expertise is the wrong way to argue this
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Re: Reckless public engagement - authorities outside their expertise

Post by bob sterman » Wed Aug 05, 2020 5:59 am

warumich wrote:
Tue Aug 04, 2020 8:50 am
bob sterman wrote:
Sun Aug 02, 2020 5:01 pm
Who needs doctors, virologists and epidemiologists...

...when you've got a sociologist ready to tell you to "calm down, calm down"?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ction.html
Apologies for getting a bit sensitive on this but Dingwall is a sociologist specialised on public health, and quite a distinguished one too as far as I know, so he's not exactly speaking outside of his expertise here, as you are implying. He'll certainly know a damn sight more about public health policy than your average doctor or biologist.
Yes - sorry. He has a lot of relevant expertise. However, I would say he's drifted outside his area of expertise by commenting on biological features of the virus, transmission mechanisms, and lethality.

And, I would say - in the middle of a pandemic - choosing to write a column for the Daily Express in which he specifically says "It is time to stop 'following the science' " is reckless.

Incidentally, back in May Dingwall was publicly arguing against the 2 metre social distancing rule, and also arguing against even merely "encouraging" everyone to wear masks. He has also publicly criticised the mathematical modelling used by Sage claiming it was "flawed".

He was engaging the public (Express again) with the claim that the virus couldn't infect people over a distance of more than one metre...

"The new data shows it is broken up over a shorter space and those particles that do travel are not in infectious quantities at one metre."

https://www.express.co.uk/life-style/he ... s-research

I think this is pretty clearly outside his area of expertise - and turned out to be wrong (e.g. data from a German meat-processing plant has shown transmission over much longer distances via aerosol).

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Re: Reckless public engagement - authorities outside their expertise

Post by bob sterman » Wed Aug 05, 2020 6:23 am

P.S. Even back in April he was already arguing for pubs reopening and on March 24th wrote an article in the Telegraph headlined...

"Lockdown is another triumph of populism over science". Yes - on March 24th.

I haven't posted all the links but if you search the Google News archive you'll see his public engagement consists of arguing against masks, social distancing, lockdown in general, pub and school closures in particular etc since March.

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