COVID-19
Re: COVID-19
Helicopter clattering overhead prompted me to look it up on flightradar24: Air ambulance, flew here straight as an arrow from Cambridge and just landed in the park next to our GPs surgery. That feels unnervingly close to home.
Re: COVID-19
Over the Weekend (I've not been out since) I saw about 5 ambulances in a couple of hours.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation
Re: COVID-19
A visualisation of global deaths due to various causes (Diabetes, TB, Malaria ) and Covid
From Jan to July
https://public.flourish.studio/visualis ... 22Aw-grQxo
From Jan to July
https://public.flourish.studio/visualis ... 22Aw-grQxo
My avatar was a scientific result that was later found to be 'mistaken' - I rarely claim to be 100% correct
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!
Re: COVID-19
Meanwhile it looks as though UK infections have bottomed out and have started to rise again.
The UK figures seem almost as though aimed at making it hard to do simple analyses, with the negative 29726 cases on Friday 3rd July
So I've looked at the numbers since May31st and plotted the cases for the week against week number
Data from https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publicati ... -worldwide
The UK figures seem almost as though aimed at making it hard to do simple analyses, with the negative 29726 cases on Friday 3rd July
So I've looked at the numbers since May31st and plotted the cases for the week against week number
Data from https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publicati ... -worldwide
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation
Re: COVID-19
Yes, I got the same when I took a quick look - a hint of an uptick.
Could easily be just random noise.
Could easily be just random noise.
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Re: COVID-19
It's getting towards the time where it's less likely. At the moment it's like making 40 coin tosses, and getting 37 tails. Then you toss three heads in a row.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation
Re: COVID-19
The Covidzoe app data is also showing an upturn; I tend to think that's the most likely to be the fastest, reliable indicator due to the sheer numbers involved.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation
Re: COVID-19
Interesting. But it gives total deaths so far as 4.6 million. Given the world population is something like 7.7 billion I would have thought the total would be in the tens of millions.Gfamily wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 5:55 pmA visualisation of global deaths due to various causes (Diabetes, TB, Malaria ) and Covid
From Jan to July
https://public.flourish.studio/visualis ... 22Aw-grQxo
This would appear to agree with me:
https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/W ... death-rate
And remember that if you botch the exit, the carnival of reaction may be coming to a town near you.
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Re: COVID-19
Sorry I know I'm not saying anything helpful or original here, but FFS we are going to have to wait at least a month for anything to actually be done about it aren't we.jimbob wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 8:42 pmMeanwhile it looks as though UK infections have bottomed out and have started to rise again.
The UK figures seem almost as though aimed at making it hard to do simple analyses, with the negative 29726 cases on Friday 3rd July
So I've looked at the numbers since May31st and plotted the cases for the week against week number
Data from https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publicati ... -worldwide
Ec6fn-VWkAcBODm.png
ETA sorry again for being all oooh get me I'm in Scotland but might this genuinely be a good time to start breaking down figures in England and Wales against Scotland? Scotland now allows shops to open and is allowing people to visit each other indoors, but masks in public places indoors already compulsory. I have no idea how compliance levels will compare from 24 July though. I know there are other differences in Scotland but would it be helpful to make this comparison to see what measures within the UK are helpful to reducing transmission?
Edit again to add 'indoors'
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Re: COVID-19
Yes, it is selective as the visualisation only counts certain causes, so many of the big ones (COPD, heart disease, stroke, cancer) etc are excluded.JQH wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 8:25 amInteresting. But it gives total deaths so far as 4.6 million. Given the world population is something like 7.7 billion I would have thought the total would be in the tens of millions.Gfamily wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 5:55 pmA visualisation of global deaths due to various causes (Diabetes, TB, Malaria ) and Covid
From Jan to July
https://public.flourish.studio/visualis ... 22Aw-grQxo
This would appear to agree with me:
https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/W ... death-rate
For reference, Diabetes (top of this visualisation) is #7 in the list of major causes worldwide - with about 1.6 million of the 57 million deaths in 2016.
https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-shee ... s-of-death
My avatar was a scientific result that was later found to be 'mistaken' - I rarely claim to be 100% correct
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!
Re: COVID-19
Indeed, and look at Israel for what happens after premature relaxations. There are several lags that the UK government doesn't seem to have any concept of. Let alone exponential growth.discovolante wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 8:51 amSorry I know I'm not saying anything helpful or original here, but FFS we are going to have to wait at least a month for anything to actually be done about it aren't we.jimbob wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 8:42 pmMeanwhile it looks as though UK infections have bottomed out and have started to rise again.
The UK figures seem almost as though aimed at making it hard to do simple analyses, with the negative 29726 cases on Friday 3rd July
So I've looked at the numbers since May31st and plotted the cases for the week against week number
Data from https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publicati ... -worldwide
Ec6fn-VWkAcBODm.png
ETA sorry again for being all oooh get me I'm in Scotland but might this genuinely be a good time to start breaking down figures in England and Wales against Scotland? Scotland now allows shops to open and is allowing people to visit each other indoors, but masks in public places indoors already compulsory. I have no idea how compliance levels will compare from 24 July though. I know there are other differences in Scotland but would it be helpful to make this comparison to see what measures within the UK are helpful to reducing transmission?
Edit again to add 'indoors'
Hopefully, if R is only a little above 1, it is not going to be as fast as the first peak.
The trend has continued since this date
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation
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Re: COVID-19
Total cases so far in England: 250,000 and running at about 500 per day.discovolante wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 8:51 amSorry I know I'm not saying anything helpful or original here, but FFS we are going to have to wait at least a month for anything to actually be done about it aren't we.jimbob wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 8:42 pmMeanwhile it looks as though UK infections have bottomed out and have started to rise again.
The UK figures seem almost as though aimed at making it hard to do simple analyses, with the negative 29726 cases on Friday 3rd July
So I've looked at the numbers since May31st and plotted the cases for the week against week number
Data from https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publicati ... -worldwide
Ec6fn-VWkAcBODm.png
ETA sorry again for being all oooh get me I'm in Scotland but might this genuinely be a good time to start breaking down figures in England and Wales against Scotland? Scotland now allows shops to open and is allowing people to visit each other indoors, but masks in public places indoors already compulsory. I have no idea how compliance levels will compare from 24 July though. I know there are other differences in Scotland but would it be helpful to make this comparison to see what measures within the UK are helpful to reducing transmission?
Edit again to add 'indoors'
Total cases so far in Scotland: 18,368 and running at about 10 per day.
It's difficult to see them both on the same y-axis. There's only a factor of 10 difference in populations but even rescaling for that Scotland is doing 5-times "better" than England.
I get the numbers daily from some github somewhere (although NI hasn't been updated there for a couple of weeks). The England+Scotland+Wales+NI total matches the UK total better now since about 30,000 positives were taken off the UK total for double-counting or some such.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: COVID-19
Matt Hancock's got it covered:
As a country we have made great strides towards beating this virus but we mustn't take our foot off the pedal
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Re: COVID-19
By the way, don't do this.
You don't want to end up on the news as being the one who beat up someone who had a good medical reason* for not wearing a mask. Just like those who ranted at a nurse who finally had 5 minutes to sit outside after a 72 hour shift or whatever it was. In that case you'd be the one demonstrating a limitation in your mental capacity to simultaneously retain multiple pieces of information in working memory for rational decision making.
* - good medical reasons do exist, although most of the whiny entitled little individuals complaining about masks have a limitation in their mental capacity etc.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: COVID-19
was only joking - really. Apart from being a firm believer that violence never solves anything, I'm turned seventy with a number of (minor-ish) physical problems so ain't really in a position to beat anyone up.
But I would expect anyone with valid reasons to be mask-less to be happy to keep a decent distance from others.
But I would expect anyone with valid reasons to be mask-less to be happy to keep a decent distance from others.
If you bring your kids up to think for themselves, you can't complain when they do.
Re: COVID-19
I bought some. They are nice, mine has elephants on.headshot wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 3:39 pmSeems I was born with a rebellion gene, so I wear my mask with pride.
A friend of mine is making some lovely cloth masks if anyone is interested: www.masksbybean.com
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Re: COVID-19
Remember how the government said they were simply following the science regarding the lockdown.
Start of lockdown: 26th March
SAGE advised government to impose lockdown on 16 or 18 March
(The government’s chief scientific adviser) Vallance told the committee that SAGE advised the government to impose lockdown measures “as soon as possible” on the 16 or 18 March.
He said this happened as soon as data showed further restrictions were needed. “Looking back, you can see the data may have preceded that but the data was not available before that.”
Scientists realised in mid-March that “we were further ahead in the epidemic than had been thought”.
Start of lockdown: 26th March
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What is here was dangerous and repulsive to us.
This place is best shunned and left uninhabited.
What is here was dangerous and repulsive to us.
This place is best shunned and left uninhabited.
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Re: COVID-19
Well I'm sure he's telling them that now but I don't remember him saying it at the time.Little waster wrote: ↑Thu Jul 16, 2020 3:55 pmRemember how the government said they were simply following the science regarding the lockdown.
SAGE advised government to impose lockdown on 16 or 18 March
(The government’s chief scientific adviser) Vallance told the committee that SAGE advised the government to impose lockdown measures “as soon as possible” on the 16 or 18 March.
He said this happened as soon as data showed further restrictions were needed. “Looking back, you can see the data may have preceded that but the data was not available before that.”
Scientists realised in mid-March that “we were further ahead in the epidemic than had been thought”.
Ah, 16th of March is when Neil "I thought I was immune" Ferguson showed them a graph with a calibrated scale on the y-axis.
Because on the 13-14th of March, Vallance was still being obviously wrong.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk
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Re: COVID-19
hmm - that's not what the minutes / supporting documents say
Re: COVID-19
Rumoured that the government will ask everyone to go back to work tomorrow.
where once I used to scintillate
now I sin till ten past three
now I sin till ten past three
Re: COVID-19
Without masks. f.cking madness. Frau HS has pretty serious asthma and her office has recycled air with no opening windows.
How do they propose keeping people safe from asymptomatic transmission?
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