COVID-19 in the United States

Covid-19 discussion, bring your own statistics
Millennie Al
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Re: COVID-19 in the United States

Post by Millennie Al » Wed Jul 22, 2020 2:38 am

Martin Y wrote:
Tue Jul 21, 2020 10:41 am
All the clamour about how mask-wearing is politicised and grown adults are having hilarious toddler tantrum meltdowns over being required to wear them centres on the US, but in an item about the phenomenon something unexpected pops up:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53477121

A chart of the percentage of people in various countries who say they wear a mask. US: 73% UK: 36%
It's not helped by this kind of thing (from the link above):
Robert Redfield, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said recently in a webcast that if everyone in the US started wearing masks "right away", the epidemic would be brought under control within two months.
The evidence on masks is not so strong as to support such an extreme position. While masks are almost certain to help, the extent of their effect is very unclear as it is easily confounded by other factors. If you tell people to wear a mask, the ones who do will differ in other ways - they'll be much more likely to follow other instructions such as social distancing and handwashing. I think it would be much more persuasive to be honest and tell people that we have good grounds to believe it will help, but that we cannot be certain that the effect is large enough to be worthwhile.
Covid-19 - Don't catch it: don't spread it.

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jimbob
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Re: COVID-19 in the United States

Post by jimbob » Thu Jul 23, 2020 8:31 am

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/12 ... 73504?s=20

Interesting thread comparing New Mexico with its neighbours.

It seems to be doing things properly
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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dyqik
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Re: COVID-19 in the United States

Post by dyqik » Sat Jul 25, 2020 12:06 pm

Local TV stations that have been bought up by a far right Republican Party donor are airing Plandemic across the country.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/07/24/medi ... index.html

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Woodchopper
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Re: COVID-19 in the United States

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Jul 30, 2020 4:54 am

Healthcare system overwhelmed in Texas county
https://www.star-telegram.com/news/coro ... 43257.html

County lockdown was controlling Covid infection but they were overruled by the state governor.

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headshot
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Re: COVID-19 in the United States

Post by headshot » Thu Jul 30, 2020 8:28 am

dyqik wrote:
Sat Jul 25, 2020 12:06 pm
Local TV stations that have been bought up by a far right Republican Party donor are airing Plandemic across the country.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/07/24/medi ... index.html
They’ve shelved it after the outcry and protests.

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Gfamily
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Re: COVID-19 in the United States

Post by Gfamily » Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:28 am

headshot wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 8:28 am
dyqik wrote:
Sat Jul 25, 2020 12:06 pm
Local TV stations that have been bought up by a far right Republican Party donor are airing Plandemic across the country.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/07/24/medi ... index.html
They’ve shelved it after the outcry and protests.
This is one of the issues that Carol Cadwalladr highlighted about the way Facebook was used in the referendum campaign.

In this instance, because people know about it, there is outcry and protests, but on Facebook it's possible to quietly target material to specific areas (whether geographic, social, political, demographic) without the wider community having any knowledge of what's being presented and this having no way of knowing where a counter argument is needed.
My avatar was a scientific result that was later found to be 'mistaken' - I rarely claim to be 100% correct
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!

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dyqik
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Re: COVID-19 in the United States

Post by dyqik » Thu Jul 30, 2020 6:27 pm

Herman Cain, Republican presidential candidate in 2016, has died of CoVID that was diagnosed following his attendance at Trump's Tulsa rally.

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lpm
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Re: COVID-19 in the United States

Post by lpm » Tue Aug 04, 2020 7:38 am

"Lower than the world".

For once, Trump's not wrong. Unclear of he was meaning cases or deaths, but for both the US totals are lower than the world's. I checked all data sources carefully and they agree on this.
I'll miss him after he's died in the pandemic

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Woodchopper
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Re: COVID-19 in the United States

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Aug 04, 2020 7:53 am

lpm wrote:
Tue Aug 04, 2020 7:38 am
"Lower than the world".

For once, Trump's not wrong. Unclear of he was meaning cases or deaths, but for both the US totals are lower than the world's. I checked all data sources carefully and they agree on this.
I found the link so you don't have to: https://twitter.com/axios/status/129049 ... 48096?s=20

ETA: He really does have the air of a man who is constantly fed positive 'facts' by his aides and can't deal with anything else. It is striking how similar his outlook is to the leadership in the later period of the Soviet Union.

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jimbob
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Re: COVID-19 in the United States

Post by jimbob » Tue Aug 04, 2020 8:18 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Aug 04, 2020 7:53 am
lpm wrote:
Tue Aug 04, 2020 7:38 am
"Lower than the world".

For once, Trump's not wrong. Unclear of he was meaning cases or deaths, but for both the US totals are lower than the world's. I checked all data sources carefully and they agree on this.
I found the link so you don't have to: https://twitter.com/axios/status/129049 ... 48096?s=20

ETA: He really does have the air of a man who is constantly fed positive 'facts' by his aides and can't deal with anything else. It is striking how similar his outlook is to the leadership in the later period of the Soviet Union.
Well he is more animated than Brezhnev
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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jimbob
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Re: COVID-19 in the United States

Post by jimbob » Thu Aug 06, 2020 8:31 am

Have you considered stupidity as an explanation


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Re: COVID-19 in the United States

Post by Vertigowooyay » Sun Aug 09, 2020 7:13 am

Sturgis motorcycle rally to go ahead

Up to 250,000 bikers could attend; will be blocked from traveling across Cheyenne River tribal land at Sioux checkpoints.
Calm yourself Doctor NotTheNineO’ClockNews. We’re men of science. We fear no worldly terrors.

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Re: COVID-19 in the United States

Post by bmforre » Wed Sep 09, 2020 8:16 am

Sturgis - 266 000 ?
By analyzing the parts of the country that had the highest number of Sturgis attendees and changes in coronavirus trends after its conclusion, (researchers) estimated 266,796 cases could be linked to the rally. That’s about 19 percent of the number reported nationally between Aug. 2 and Sept. 2, and significantly higher than the number state health officials have linked through contact tracing. Based on a covid-19 case statistically costing about $46,000, the researchers said, that would mean the rally carried a public health price tag of $12.2 billion.
Some USians sure are willing to sacrifice for some kinds of liberty ...

monkey
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Re: COVID-19 in the United States

Post by monkey » Wed Sep 09, 2020 3:34 pm

bmforre wrote:
Wed Sep 09, 2020 8:16 am
Sturgis - 266 000 ?
By analyzing the parts of the country that had the highest number of Sturgis attendees and changes in coronavirus trends after its conclusion, (researchers) estimated 266,796 cases could be linked to the rally. That’s about 19 percent of the number reported nationally between Aug. 2 and Sept. 2, and significantly higher than the number state health officials have linked through contact tracing. Based on a covid-19 case statistically costing about $46,000, the researchers said, that would mean the rally carried a public health price tag of $12.2 billion.
Some USians sure are willing to sacrifice for some kinds of liberty ...
Here's the non peer reviewed article clicky.

To be honest, I don't think it's much good. They tracked where people went after the rally assumed that cases in those places were due to the rally attendee when this may not be the case. America has been really bad at this in many ways that aren't motorbike rallies, so deciding the cause of local increases is going to be much harder than is made out by the study.

I am not suggesting that the rally was a good idea, or that it didn't contribute to the spread of The Covids, just that the estimate of 266k might be over egging it.

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Bird on a Fire
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Re: COVID-19 in the United States

Post by Bird on a Fire » Wed Sep 09, 2020 3:56 pm

I was wondering how a non-fatal covid case costs $46k - they cite this paper https://www.iza.org/publications/dp/136 ... valuations which in turn gets the figure from the Department of Transport's "value per statistical life", whatever that means.

Their estimate of 47 million cases in the US by July seems a bit high, too, I think?
Born at 356.32 ppm CO2 #ShowYourStripes

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Woodchopper
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Re: COVID-19 in the United States

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Sep 10, 2020 3:11 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Wed Sep 09, 2020 3:56 pm
I was wondering how a non-fatal covid case costs $46k - they cite this paper https://www.iza.org/publications/dp/136 ... valuations which in turn gets the figure from the Department of Transport's "value per statistical life", whatever that means.

Their estimate of 47 million cases in the US by July seems a bit high, too, I think?
The value per statistical life is a calculation used to decide government spending priorities.

Let’s say that your modelers conclude that if you build a bypass costing £20 million round a town you’ll cause a reduction of 3 serious injuries per year, and one death every five years. The value of a statistical life helps you decide whether in economic terms it’s worth spending the money. There will be an estimate of the ‘value’ a death and of, say, a year of disability spent recovering from an injury. That way government planners can decide which projects should be funded.

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Re: COVID-19 in the United States

Post by shpalman » Wed Sep 16, 2020 6:31 am

Trump has said that covid will go away because of 'herd mentality'.
With time it goes away. And you’ll develop like a herd mentality. It’s going to be herd developed, and that’s going to happen. That will all happen.
And he also thinks we'll have a vaccine in
three weeks, four weeks
molto tricky

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Re: COVID-19 in the United States

Post by FlammableFlower » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:46 am

shpalman wrote:
Wed Sep 16, 2020 6:31 am
Trump has said that covid will go away because of 'herd mentality'.
With time it goes away. And you’ll develop like a herd mentality. It’s going to be herd developed, and that’s going to happen. That will all happen.
And he also thinks we'll have a vaccine in
three weeks, four weeks
Well, some might say he's very much developing a herd mentality in lots of republicans...

As to the vaccine in 3-4 weeks, no f.cking chance.

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jimbob
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Re: COVID-19 in the United States

Post by jimbob » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:56 am

COVID-19 isn't going to play nicely with the natural disasters.

People who are evacuated have to be provided with elsewhere. You wouldn't want to put groups of people ip in school halls, for example.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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