SARS-CoV-2 testing
Re: SARS-CoV-2 testing
Kings College Covid-19 app estimates 2110 new cases per day.
https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#daily-ne ... source=App
https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#daily-ne ... source=App
- Bird on a Fire
- Princess POW
- Posts: 10142
- Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2019 5:05 pm
- Location: Portugal
Re: SARS-CoV-2 testing
Interesting the way that footfall seems to have plateaued even though spending continues to increase.lpm wrote: ↑Thu Aug 06, 2020 8:28 amIt would be rational for young people to go to pubs - very low risk - but fewer 50 year olds. Social get-togethers are group decisions, so six 20 year old friends might agree to meet up in a pub, but in a group of six 50 year olds two might veto the decision so the entire group goes to a garden BBQ instead.
John Burn-Murdoch has the charts of activity:
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status ... 1873455110
It would be very useful to see something like this split by age grouping. Anecdotally, it's young people out and about.
Economic factors are also relevant. With the end of the furlough scheme and job losses, millions won't be able to afford shopping and restaurants and pubs. This might shift the mix.
Is this because:
a) the UK basically has two populations, only one of which is willing to go out to pubs and restaurants during an ongoing deadly pandemic,
b) the new distancing arrangements mean that everywhere that's open is now operating at maximum capacity, and no further increase in footfall is possible,
or (c) both/neither/something else?
We have the right to a clean, healthy, sustainable environment.
-
- Catbabel
- Posts: 674
- Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:59 pm
- Location: Shropshire - Welsh Borders
Re: SARS-CoV-2 testing
or people are staying longer in pubs and restaurants so footfall stays same but spending increases /theory/
If you bring your kids up to think for themselves, you can't complain when they do.
Re: SARS-CoV-2 testing
If you're drinking out /eating out budget is X per month, you would be having fewer visits but could treat yourself more per visit. Picking the lobster, champagne not prosecco, etc
Awarded gold star 4 November 2021
Re: SARS-CoV-2 testing
Round my way some places have compensated for reduced capacity/footfall by increasing prices.
- shpalman
- Princess POW
- Posts: 8428
- Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:53 pm
- Location: One step beyond
- Contact:
Re: SARS-CoV-2 testing
You mean people would deliberately go for the worse option just because it costs more?
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk
- shpalman
- Princess POW
- Posts: 8428
- Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:53 pm
- Location: One step beyond
- Contact:
Re: SARS-CoV-2 testing
Well I plotted the number of swabs and the number of cases per day on axes such that we can see whether cases are really going up because of increased testing. (The lines are 7-day moving averages to smooth out the weekly variation).shpalman wrote: ↑Thu Aug 06, 2020 9:12 amFine, the number of cases in the UK isn't increasing. It was always that high but testing was sh.t. Well, it's still sh.t, but getting a bit less sh.t than before. There's no clear idea now of how many swabs have been performed, and the number of people tested was lost track of ages ago. And there's no record of how many people have recovered.
And the UK is still on over 800 cases per day and currently about 400 deaths per week (compared to an ONS death rate of about 8000-9000 per week at this time of year, so maybe 4-5% of all deaths). If you take that death rate and assume an IFR of 2.5-3.5% as the Italian antibody study suggests, you're looking at the order of 2000 cases per day (yeah I know that number applies to two weeks ago or whatever but unless deaths go down significantly in the next two weeks, it's valid now).
Because comparisons with other countries are meaningless,* Italy has a covid-positive death rate of about 50 per week at the moment. (Italy is testing 27,000 cases per day, performing 50,000 swabs, and the fraction of people tested who turn out to be positive is about 1.1% at the moment. Cases per day is going up in Italy because of a few localized outbreaks, for example in Mantova (Lombardy was actually stable at about 60 cases per day until that happened; the nearby regions of Veneto and Emilia-Romagna are increasing but from much lower baselines).
* - Weird how the UK decided comparisons with other nations were meaningless at the point at which it started to obviously do worse than other nations.
I notice that the older swab numbers I just got from coronavirus.data.gov.uk are somewhat lower than the numbers given at the time. For example, I had 10,340,511 on the 4th of July but now the number on that day is 7,985,271.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk
Re: SARS-CoV-2 testing
Probably because the gov.uk page has completely changed. Again. (This one: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases)
Before they changed it you could download the whole data set for UK, the 4 nations,Upper tier & Lower tier local authorities, the whole shebang. I was using it to look at cases in local areas. Now if you download the data you seem to only get the UK figures.
But there's a drop down menu at the top of the page that you can use to pick a local area and it'll show you the local figures in a nice graph, which is pretty handy and a lot less effort for me. Plus it's nice to see figures for hospital occupancy, which Scotland have been doing for ages.
ETA: Ah-ha. You can get local figures by date if you switch to a local area first, and download the graph data. But only one local area at a time.
- Woodchopper
- Princess POW
- Posts: 7317
- Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:05 am
Re: SARS-CoV-2 testing
Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in slums and non-slums of Mumbai, India, during June 29-July 19, 2020
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20182741v1
The low IFR could be more evidence that people whose immune systems encounter a lot of infections are much better able to fight off Covid without getting very ill. Or maybe the slum dwellers are all young.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20182741v1
Prevalence as high as 58% would argue against the modeling which suggested that herd immunity could be achieved with as low as 20% infected.Results: The positive test rate was 54.1% (95% CI: 52.7 to 55.6) and 16.1% (95% CI: 14.9 to 17.4) in slums and non-slums, respectively, a difference of 38 percentage points (P < 0.001). Accounting for imperfect accuracy of tests (e.g., sensitivity, 0.90; specificity 1.00), seroprevalence was as high as 58.4% (95% CI: 56.8 to 59.9) and 17.3% (95% CI: 16 to 18.7) in slums and non-slums, respectively.
Conclusions: The high seroprevalence in slums implies a moderate infection fatality rate. The stark difference in seroprevalence across slums and non-slums has implications for the efficacy of social distancing, the level of herd immunity, and equity. It underlines the importance of geographic specificity and urban structure in modeling SARS-CoV-2.
The low IFR could be more evidence that people whose immune systems encounter a lot of infections are much better able to fight off Covid without getting very ill. Or maybe the slum dwellers are all young.
-
- After Pie
- Posts: 1621
- Joined: Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:02 am
Re: SARS-CoV-2 testing
Or it could be evidence that if you don't have a strong immune system then living in a slum will have killed you long before Covid-19 came along to try.Woodchopper wrote: ↑Tue Sep 01, 2020 10:02 pmThe low IFR could be more evidence that people whose immune systems encounter a lot of infections are much better able to fight off Covid without getting very ill. Or maybe the slum dwellers are all young.
- Woodchopper
- Princess POW
- Posts: 7317
- Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:05 am
Re: SARS-CoV-2 testing
Poop tests stop COVID-19 outbreak at University of Arizona
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/08 ... ty-arizona
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/08 ... ty-arizona
- Woodchopper
- Princess POW
- Posts: 7317
- Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:05 am
Re: SARS-CoV-2 testing
Yes, that too.Millennie Al wrote: ↑Thu Sep 03, 2020 3:15 amOr it could be evidence that if you don't have a strong immune system then living in a slum will have killed you long before Covid-19 came along to try.Woodchopper wrote: ↑Tue Sep 01, 2020 10:02 pmThe low IFR could be more evidence that people whose immune systems encounter a lot of infections are much better able to fight off Covid without getting very ill. Or maybe the slum dwellers are all young.
Re: SARS-CoV-2 testing
Slum residents are less likely to be obese or diabetic?Woodchopper wrote: ↑Thu Sep 03, 2020 3:18 amYes, that too.Millennie Al wrote: ↑Thu Sep 03, 2020 3:15 amOr it could be evidence that if you don't have a strong immune system then living in a slum will have killed you long before Covid-19 came along to try.Woodchopper wrote: ↑Tue Sep 01, 2020 10:02 pmThe low IFR could be more evidence that people whose immune systems encounter a lot of infections are much better able to fight off Covid without getting very ill. Or maybe the slum dwellers are all young.
- Woodchopper
- Princess POW
- Posts: 7317
- Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:05 am
Re: SARS-CoV-2 testing
That's likely. Though I wouldn't go as far as saying that slums in India or Africa have fewer people with co-morbidity. They are pretty unhealthy places, but as Millennia Al suggests, maybe sick people die before they get old.AMS wrote: ↑Thu Sep 03, 2020 6:31 amSlum residents are less likely to be obese or diabetic?Woodchopper wrote: ↑Thu Sep 03, 2020 3:18 amYes, that too.Millennie Al wrote: ↑Thu Sep 03, 2020 3:15 am
Or it could be evidence that if you don't have a strong immune system then living in a slum will have killed you long before Covid-19 came along to try.
- shpalman
- Princess POW
- Posts: 8428
- Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:53 pm
- Location: One step beyond
- Contact:
Re: SARS-CoV-2 testing
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk
- Bird on a Fire
- Princess POW
- Posts: 10142
- Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2019 5:05 pm
- Location: Portugal
Re: SARS-CoV-2 testing
That seems quite a reasonable hypothesis, and I'm not sure there's much in your link that undermines it - especially if it's a particular coronavirus lineage endemic to Africa that contributes to immunity.
We have the right to a clean, healthy, sustainable environment.
- Tessa K
- Light of Blast
- Posts: 4840
- Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2019 5:07 pm
- Location: Closer than you'd like
Re: SARS-CoV-2 testing
I started feeling ill so I thought I'd be a responsible citizen and order a Covid test kit. There are none available. None. And no appointments at the only test centre I can get to (I'm in London, apparently there is only one). I really hope it's just a cold.
Re: SARS-CoV-2 testing
Yep, they increased quantity at the expense of quality, then redirected capacity to the hotspots up north.
The stats for the south east and south west are so low they probably decided it's not worth bothering with much testing. But London is higher and seems to be rising.
Out of interest, what is the nearest test centre you could get to in a car?
The stats for the south east and south west are so low they probably decided it's not worth bothering with much testing. But London is higher and seems to be rising.
Out of interest, what is the nearest test centre you could get to in a car?
Awarded gold star 4 November 2021
Re: SARS-CoV-2 testing
I wonder how many test kits are sitting in people's homes, unused.
Back in May/June/July the number for tests sent out were much higher than the actual number of tests being processed.
Back in May/June/July the number for tests sent out were much higher than the actual number of tests being processed.
- Tessa K
- Light of Blast
- Posts: 4840
- Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2019 5:07 pm
- Location: Closer than you'd like
Re: SARS-CoV-2 testing
I have no idea, they don't give you that option unless you start again. I have now managed to order one, maybe they were overloaded with requests earlier. It's supposed to come within 48 hours but as that will be Sunday, it will be longer than that and then I have to book a courier to return it. So it could be a lengthy process.lpm wrote: ↑Fri Sep 04, 2020 11:17 amYep, they increased quantity at the expense of quality, then redirected capacity to the hotspots up north.
The stats for the south east and south west are so low they probably decided it's not worth bothering with much testing. But London is higher and seems to be rising.
Out of interest, what is the nearest test centre you could get to in a car?
Re: SARS-CoV-2 testing
These two twitterers say you can get tests in Dundee
https://twitter.com/theousherwood/statu ... 9815757834
https://twitter.com/charliejrome/status ... 0396859393
https://twitter.com/theousherwood/statu ... 9815757834
https://twitter.com/charliejrome/status ... 0396859393
Awarded gold star 4 November 2021
Re: SARS-CoV-2 testing
Here's a chart showing "quantity up but quality down". 3.5 days median for Tessa's home test
https://twitter.com/jneill/status/1301494759383539712
https://twitter.com/jneill/status/1301494759383539712
Awarded gold star 4 November 2021
- Bird on a Fire
- Princess POW
- Posts: 10142
- Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2019 5:05 pm
- Location: Portugal
Re: SARS-CoV-2 testing
This is just so weird to me. Most people here get their results in under 24 hours - you just turn up, take a test and then they call you back. If you get tested in the morning you'll often hear by the end of the day.Tessa K wrote: ↑Fri Sep 04, 2020 11:46 amI have no idea, they don't give you that option unless you start again. I have now managed to order one, maybe they were overloaded with requests earlier. It's supposed to come within 48 hours but as that will be Sunday, it will be longer than that and then I have to book a courier to return it. So it could be a lengthy process.lpm wrote: ↑Fri Sep 04, 2020 11:17 amYep, they increased quantity at the expense of quality, then redirected capacity to the hotspots up north.
The stats for the south east and south west are so low they probably decided it's not worth bothering with much testing. But London is higher and seems to be rising.
Out of interest, what is the nearest test centre you could get to in a car?
How has the UK not sorted this in almost 6 months? They are running a more tests - Portugal is currently running about 16,000 daily tests, so 1.6 per thousand people. compared with about 2.6 per thousand in the UK - but still.
We have the right to a clean, healthy, sustainable environment.
Re: SARS-CoV-2 testing
I'm going with "gross incompetence" as the explanation.
And remember that if you botch the exit, the carnival of reaction may be coming to a town near you.
Fintan O'Toole
Fintan O'Toole
Re: SARS-CoV-2 testing
I’ll take “corrupt privatisation of public services” please Bob.