US Election

[Bird on a Fire]

Kellyanne Conway becomes the latest rat to leave the sinking ship.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53885239

[Squeak]

Interestingly, her husband is taking himself out of the election game too. I wonder whether they neutralise each other in terms of political impact: the White House loses its Trump-whisperer while the Lincoln Project loses one of its loudest voices.

[lpm]

Plenty more propagandists where those come from. I doubt there's any real world impact.

[El Pollo Diablo]

Apparently trump wants to both "stop endless wars and bring our troops home" as well as destroying international terrorism.

[Grumble]

Apparently trump wants to both "stop endless wars and bring our troops home" as well as destroying international terrorism.

That’s definitely why he is always trying to increase military spending.

[Bird on a Fire]

Apparently trump wants to both "stop endless wars and bring our troops home" as well as destroying international terrorism.

That sounds like a fairly sensible long-term strategy as long as the details are handled correctly. Donald is obviously not the right guy for the job, though.

[El Pollo Diablo]

That's not a strategy, it's meaningless platitudes, and given the way that America handles the issue of destroying international terrorism, a complete contradiction in terms.

[Bird on a Fire]

Apparently trump wants to both "stop endless wars and bring our troops home" as well as destroying international terrorism.

That’s definitely why he is always trying to increase military spending.

Loads of that money ends up in corporate pockets rather than directly funding military intervention. It's not necessarily inconsistent - keep money flowing to his wealthy friends without risking lives or having to deal with loads of complicated details just to "help" dodgy-looking foreigners.

[El Pollo Diablo]

One does have to wonder about YouGov's methodology. They've managed to record a -20 approval and a -5 approval rating in the space of two days.

[Bird on a Fire]

That's not a strategy, it's meaningless platitudes, and given the way that America handles the issue of destroying international terrorism, a complete contradiction in terms.

I think the meaning is pretty clear - less overseas intervention. That is, as you say, totally at odds with how the US has thus far responded to international terrorism, but it would at least stop exacerbating the problem.

It has been a small silver lining that we've had a few years without the US bombing a school bus / a bunch of shepherds / Médecins Sans Frontières hospitals (with the caveat that US allies engaged in ongoing conflicts have been treated appallingly).

[lpm]

Another confirmation that Trump uses kompromat, channelled through the National Enquirer and Michael Cohen, to force people to support him.

Jerry Falwell's wife's lover had photos of the trio engaged in cuck fun and games, Cohen had a little chat with Falwell in 2016, and Falwell suddenly endorsed Trump to the surprise of many.

[lpm]

As I've said before, the BBC coverage of US politics is truly terrible. They simply don't know what's going on.

This piece, "Rising stars of a post-Trump Republican party shine", is nonsense. Last night, a series of grifters told lies to camera. There was zero normal politics, no outlining of agendas, no policy or plans. It was just lies about the Democrats and lies about what Trump has done. Yet the BBC still manages to present it as the Republican Party convention responding to the Democratic Party convention like it's normal routine politics.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2020-53899553

The second BBC puff piece is on Donald Junior. It bears no resemblence to reality. Being a criminal is relabeled by the BBC as being a "firebrand", his desperate lies to avoid prison becomes "no-nonsense" and being pumped to the gills with cocaine becomes "he energises and electrifies a room".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53884591

[Little waster]

Ladies and gentleman, I give you the Republican Party Platform for 2020!

America has been led in the wrong direction.

Our economy has become unnecessarily weak with stagnant wages. People living paycheck to paycheck are struggling, sacrificing, and suffering.

Our standing in world affairs has declined significantly — our enemies no longer fear us and our friends no long trust us.

The men and women of our military remain the world’s best. The have been shortchanged in numbers, equipment, and benefits by a Commander in Chief who treats the Armed Forces and our veterans as a necessary inconvenience.

The President has dismantled Americans’ system of healthcare. He has replaced it with a costly and complicated scheme that limits choices and takes away our freedom.

The President has abandoned his promise of being accountable to the American people.

They have nearly doubled the size of the national debt.

They refuse to control our borders but try to control our schools, farms, businesses, and even our religious institutions. They have directly attacked the production of American energy and the industry-related jobs that have sustained families and communities.

The Presiden defies the laws of the United States by refusing to enforce those with which he does not agree. And he appoints judges who legislate from the bench rather than apply the law.

We, as Americans, cannot allow this to continue.

This means removing the power from unelected, unaccountable government.

You've got to give them points for honesty.

[El Pollo Diablo]

Morning Consult (who have tended to show bigger Biden leads overall) have released a series of daily polls from the last week or so, each of which covers 12,000 likely voters, over the course of the DNC. They show, basically, no change whatsoever - a consistent lead of 8-10 points for Biden in the national election race. Normally there would be a convention bounce, which doesn't seem to have happened here, but he hasn't lost any ground either. It'll be interesting to see what happens with the TNC this week, and whether the Trump Party makes up any ground.

[Little waster]

Morning Consult (who have tended to show bigger Biden leads overall) have released a series of daily polls from the last week or so, each of which covers 12,000 likely voters, over the course of the DNC. They show, basically, no change whatsoever - a consistent lead of 8-10 points for Biden in the national election race. Normally there would be a convention bounce, which doesn't seem to have happened here, but he hasn't lost any ground either. It'll be interesting to see what happens with the TNC this week, and whether the Trump Party makes up any ground.

Also from 538 before the convention.

Convention bounces still count, but they’ve gotten smaller
Post-convention bounce in voter preferences in polls, 1968 to 2016

YEAR PARTY DATES NOMINEE BOUNCE
2016 R July 18-21 Donald Trump +3
2016 D July 25-28 Hillary Clinton +2
2012 R Aug. 27-30 Mitt Romney -1
2012 D Sept. 3-6 Barack Obama +2
2008 D Aug. 25-28 Barack Obama +4
2008 R Sept. 1-4 John McCain +6
2004 D July 26-29 John Kerry -1
2004 R Aug. 30-Sept. 2 George W. Bush +2
2000 R July 31-Aug. 3 George W. Bush +8
2000 D Aug. 14-17 Al Gore +8
1996 R Aug. 12-15 Bob Dole +3
1996 D Aug. 26-29 Bill Clinton +5
1992 D July 13-16 Bill Clinton +16
1992 R Aug. 17-20 George H.W. Bush +5
1988 D July 18-21 Michael Dukakis +7
1988 R Aug. 15-18 George H.W. Bush +6
1984 D July 16-19 Walter Mondale +9
1984 R Aug. 20-23 Ronald Reagan +4
1980 R July 14-17 Ronald Reagan +8
1980 D Aug. 11-14 Jimmy Carter +10
1976 D July 12-15 Jimmy Carter +9
1976 R Aug. 16-19 Gerald Ford +5
1972 D July 10-13 George McGovern 0
1972 R Aug. 21-23 Richard Nixon +7
1968 R Aug. 5-8 Richard Nixon +5
1968 D Aug. 26-29 Hubert Humphrey +2
Average +5

A post-convention bounce is the change in a candidate’s polling average one week before the party’s convention and one week after.

tl;dr version. A combination of COVID, Biden's large lead and the tiny number of undecided swing voters means any sort of convention bounce for Biden (or Trump) seemed unlikely.

I imagine a convention dip is still possible if something goes catastrophically wrong so a no-change convention is perhaps more of a bullet dodged than a missed opportunity for Biden.

[lpm]

The 538 tracker has improved a sliver. Back to +9.3 (it had previously eroded a bit from peak of +9.6 to low of +7.6, generally being in the +8.0 to +8.5 region for the past 3 weeks).

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/po ... /national/

Opinions are set in concrete and concrete doesn't bounce very well.

[lpm]

I imagine a convention dip is still possible if something goes catastrophically wrong so a no-change convention is perhaps more of a bullet dodged than a missed opportunity for Biden.

I like Kimberly. She spells her name like an adverb, she's shagging her toyboy Donald Jr (what's the necessary age difference for toyboyism? She's 9 years older), she's got more plastic in her face than Barbie, she's got more hair extensions than Essex, and she shovels down the cocaine like they shoved coal into steam engines.

[Little waster]

she shovels down the cocaine like they shoved coal into steam engines.

I think the current style guide prefers "her eyes are Bolivian bright"

Kids, just scream "NO!!!!!!!"

[dyqik]

Several speakers seem to be warning that Biden will turn the USA into a utopia. A socialist one. Which is rather a change in tack from the Republican party.

[dyqik]

BTW, the reputedly left* wing MSNBC carried the convention live, while Fox News cut away for Tucker Carlson's White Supremacy Hour of Hate.

Which might show you how the media professionals view the convention and its affect on Trump's reelection chances...

*Center-right

[El Pollo Diablo]

Any early punts on the presidential debates? We're just over a month away now, and the thought of a live streamed debate between two doddery old men will be interesting.

[Little waster]

BTW, the reputedly left* wing MSNBC carried the convention live, while Fox News cut away for Tucker Carlson's White Supremacy Hour of Hate.

Which might show you how the media professionals view the convention and its affect on Trump's reelection chances...

*Center-right

Fox also cut away from Guilfoyle's chemically-enhanced breakdown to break the important news that Judge Jeanine was chinny-reckoning that a coronavirus vaccine would be a bad thing, presumably after the director began frantically doing the "cut the throat" gesture to the cameramen.

Still at least they still have America One News and InfoWars.

[Little waster]

Nothing to see here.

[lpm]

Any early punts on the presidential debates? We're just over a month away now, and the thought of a live streamed debate between two doddery old men will be interesting.

Will they happen?

Trump slurs so much these days, it could be quite revealing if comparisons to the 2016 debates are shown. The more Trump talks the better, because he'll ramble around. He likes to talk but gets tired quickly if he's not just randomly repeating his greatest hits. And he likes to stir up a crowd and pull stunts.

Biden just needs to keep to scripted responses, ignoring the flailing on the other side. So long as he doesn't actually react to anything Trump says it'll be fine.

[El Pollo Diablo]

I reckon they'll happen, yeah. Neither side can easily back down without losing votes for being chicken.