Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

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Woodchopper
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:47 pm

As the coronavirus pandemic continues to wreak havoc in the United States and treatments are needed more than ever, clinical trials for some of the most promising experimental drugs are taking longer than expected.

Researchers at a dozen clinical trial sites said that testing delays, staffing shortages, space constraints and reluctant patients were complicating their efforts to test monoclonal antibodies, man-made drugs that mimic the molecular soldiers made by the human immune system.

As a result, once-ambitious deadlines are slipping. The drug maker Regeneron, which previously said it could have emergency doses of its antibody cocktail ready by the end of summer, has shifted to talking about how “initial data” could be available by the end of September.

And Eli Lilly’s chief scientific officer said in June that its antibody treatment might be ready in September, but in an interview this week, he said he now hopes for something before the end of the year.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/14/heal ... e=Homepage

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Lew Dolby » Sat Sep 05, 2020 6:14 pm

Again the NYTimes - this is tracking where we are with vaccines.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... ments.html

[not my area but looks pukka]

[eta the actual link - duh !!]
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jdc
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by jdc » Sat Sep 05, 2020 6:59 pm

That's actually their treatment tracker. Their vaccine tracker is here: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... acker.html

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Lew Dolby » Sat Sep 05, 2020 7:12 pm

sorry, my mistook.
WOULD CUSTOMERS PLEASE REFRAIN FROM SITTING ON THE COUNTER BY THE BACON SLICER - AS WE'RE GETTING A LITTLE BEHIND IN OUR ORDERS.

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Herainestold » Tue Sep 08, 2020 4:55 am

The Chinese have developed a viable vaccine.
Chinese drug firm says hundreds of thousands have been given Covid-19 vaccines without a single case of infection

An official from China National Biotec Group says the evidence from an emergency use scheme suggests the products are working
Company is also confident its vaccines can offer protection for up to three years
Zhou Song, secretary for the commission for discipline inspection with China National Biotec Group, also said the company’s two candidate vaccines were likely to protect people for up to three years.

Zhou told China National Radio on Monday that the firm’s vaccines were the most widely used in the emergency scheme, adding: “Hundreds of thousands have taken the shot and no one has shown any obvious adverse events or got infected.”

CNBG’s two vaccines are still undergoing phase three trials for safety and efficacy in several countries, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Peru, Morocco, Argentina and Jordan.

China’s emergency vaccine scheme began in late July and allows high-risk groups – including health care workers, diplomats and people who work abroad – to receive vaccines that have not yet been approved by regulators.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society ... gn=3100570
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Sep 10, 2020 2:30 am

Some good commentary on the serious adverse event which paused the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine trial
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/a ... event-time

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Sep 10, 2020 10:42 am

Herainestold wrote:
Tue Sep 08, 2020 4:55 am
The lying totalitarian state that lied about this virus in the first place is claiming to have a viable vaccine, but in practise it's still in trials just like all the others
Fixed it for you you tyrannophile imbecile.

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by noggins » Thu Sep 10, 2020 1:19 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Thu Sep 10, 2020 2:30 am
Some good commentary on the serious adverse event which paused the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine trial
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/a ... event-time
Philosophical-statistical (?) question - if 999 test subjects are fine and 1 develops a Terrible Health Problem, do you consider the rarity of that specific problem, or the rarity of someone developing Any serious health issue?

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Herainestold » Thu Sep 10, 2020 5:56 pm

I predicted the Chinese would be first out of the gate in the vaccine sweepstakes. Unfortunate about the Astra Zeneca adverse advent, looks like they are out of the running. Maybe one of the other Western efforts will fill the gap.
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by AMS » Thu Sep 10, 2020 7:27 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Thu Sep 10, 2020 5:56 pm
I predicted the Chinese would be first out of the gate in the vaccine sweepstakes. Unfortunate about the Astra Zeneca adverse advent, looks like they are out of the running. Maybe one of the other Western efforts will fill the gap.
Do you trust the Chinese government to report any adverse events?

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Bird on a Fire » Thu Sep 10, 2020 7:39 pm

We can't even trust them to report a pandemic.
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Sep 10, 2020 8:21 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Thu Sep 10, 2020 5:56 pm
I predicted the Chinese would be first out of the gate in the vaccine sweepstakes. Unfortunate about the Astra Zeneca adverse advent, looks like they are out of the running. Maybe one of the other Western efforts will fill the gap.
1) You are bootlicker for a fascist regime. Of course you fawn over them and their efforts, you utter pustule.

2) No, the AstraZeneca vaccine isn't done yet, unless I missed something big in the last few hours, there's still a lot of uncertainty

3) Fascist state can be no more trusted than fascist bootlickers. As has been pointed out by others, how can a country be trusted to report adverse events when instead of reporting a pandemic, they sent thugs to beat up doctors for discussing it in a private webchat, let alone notifying the world like a reasonable country.

4) Not only can they not be trusted to be honest about adverse events, they can't be trusted to care about people at all. They are currently trying to destroy Uighur culture, and now look to be trying similar to the Mongols.

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by sTeamTraen » Thu Sep 10, 2020 11:23 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Thu Sep 10, 2020 5:56 pm
I predicted the Chinese would be first out of the gate in the vaccine sweepstakes. Unfortunate about the Astra Zeneca adverse advent, looks like they are out of the running. Maybe one of the other Western efforts will fill the gap.
You do realise that we don't even know yet if the adverse event was in the control group?

It is completely normal for medical trials to have adverse events. People have heart attacks or get cancer during trials. That may or may not have anything to do with the trial or the treatment. Even if the treatment does have side effects, decisions need to be taken about their acceptability. And at least we get to hear about them. I'm currently involved in discussions about whether the Russian vaccine (rolling out very soon) is based on fake trial data - it's unclear, but there are some patterns in there that at least require explanation.
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by jdc » Fri Sep 11, 2020 12:38 am

sTeamTraen wrote:
Thu Sep 10, 2020 11:23 pm

You do realise that we don't even know yet if the adverse event was in the control group?

Dunno how reliable this site is but they reckon we do know: https://www.statnews.com/2020/09/09/ast ... nt-report/
The participant who triggered a global shutdown of AstraZeneca’s Phase 3 Covid-19 vaccine trials was a woman in the United Kingdom who experienced neurological symptoms consistent with a rare but serious spinal inflammatory disorder called transverse myelitis, the drug maker’s chief executive, Pascal Soriot, said during a private conference call with investors on Wednesday morning.

The woman’s diagnosis has not been confirmed yet, but she is improving and will likely be discharged from the hospital as early as Wednesday, Soriot said.

The board tasked with overseeing the data and safety components of the AstraZeneca clinical trials confirmed that the participant was injected with the company’s Covid-19 vaccine and not a placebo, Soriot said on the conference call, which was set up by the investment bank J.P. Morgan.

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Herainestold » Fri Sep 11, 2020 5:11 am

We should be re assured that the system is working. That is why trials with thousands of participants are necessary, to rout out very rare but potentially serious side effects. If this report is true, and it can be shown that it was likely caused by the vaccine, then this effort is finished.
There are a number of vaccine candidates being tested, it is likely that one of them will be safe enough to administer.
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by headshot » Sat Sep 12, 2020 3:47 pm

The Oxford vaccine trial has resumed. So that’s excellent news.

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Sep 24, 2020 1:13 am

Looks like there'll be human challenge trials, with remdesivir to try and make things a bit safer for the brave volunteers.

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by JQH » Thu Sep 24, 2020 11:49 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Thu Sep 24, 2020 1:13 am
Looks like there'll be human challenge trials, with remdesivir to try and make things a bit safer for the brave volunteers.
Hats off to them.

And if they are permanently disabled by long covid I hope they don't get sh.t from the DWP when claiming benefits.
And remember that if you botch the exit, the carnival of reaction may be coming to a town near you.

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Oct 02, 2020 5:49 am

COVID-19 Makes B Cells Forget, but T Cells Remember
https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S009 ... 20)31154-5
Understanding which arms of the immune response are responsible for protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection is key to predicting long-term immunity and to inform vaccine design. Two studies in this issue of Cell collectively suggest that, although SARS-CoV-2 infection may blunt long-lived antibody responses, immune memory might still be achieved through virus-specific memory T cells.

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Oct 27, 2020 7:48 pm

Oxford Covid vaccine trials offer hope for elderly
https://www.ft.com/content/b15446e5-66f ... 638769ff79
A vaccine considered a frontrunner in the race to protect the global population from Covid-19 has produced a robust immune response in elderly people, the group at highest risk from the disease, according to two people familiar with the finding.

The discovery that the vaccine being developed by the University of Oxford, in collaboration with AstraZeneca, triggers protective antibodies and T-cells in older age groups has encouraged researchers as they seek evidence that it will spare those in later life from serious illness or death from the virus.

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by jdc » Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:48 pm

Pfizer in the news too with this from Saturday: https://www.corkbeo.ie/news/pfizers-cov ... d-19160124
The boss at the Irish branch of one of the world's biggest drug companies has raised hopes of a coronavirus vaccine "within weeks"

Paul Reid, managing director of Pfizer Ireland, has told a national newspaper that his firm's experimental jab could be approved by the end of next month and Ireland could be among the first to receive a batch.
I found this saying we were ordering Janssen and Novavax: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-g ... ical-trial and lower down it mentions Pfizer too.
With today’s announcement, the UK has now secured access to 6 different candidates, across 4 different vaccine types, reflecting the government’s strategy to ensure the UK has a supply of vaccines should any of these prove safe and effective. These include the University of Oxford’s vaccine being developed with AstraZeneca, as well as agreements with the BioNTech/Pfizer alliance, Valneva and GSK/Sanofi Pasteur.

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Bird on a Fire » Wed Oct 28, 2020 3:14 pm

Haven't we been hearing similar statements for months now?

I'll consider believing it when it's coming from somebody who doesn't stand to gain financially or politically from the announcement.
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by jdc » Wed Oct 28, 2020 7:43 pm

No, it was 'within months' to start with, we've only recently got down to 'within weeks'.

April: https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-healt ... KKBN21Z25M
“The aim is to have at least a million doses by around about September, when we also hope to have efficacy (trial) results.”
Asked when the shot - if proven to work - might be able to be made widely available to the public, Hill said the best case scenario would be for regulators to grant it “emergency use approval” - something that could be achieved within six weeks beyond the point at which data show whether it is effective.

That, he said, could mean around six weeks from September, when the team hopes to have positive trial data.
Also April: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... e-have-one
“It really depends on what you mean by ‘having a vaccine’,” says Marian Wentworth, president and CEO of Management Sciences for Health, a Massachusetts-based global not-for-profit organisation that seeks to build resilient health systems, and a long-time observer of vaccine development. “If you mean one that can be used in a mass vaccination campaign, allowing us all to get on with our lives, then 12 to 18 months is probably right.”

But in terms of an experimental vaccine that is deemed safe and effective enough to be rolled out in a more limited way – to high-risk groups such as health workers, say – that could be ready within weeks or months, under emergency rules developed by drug regulatory agencies and the World Health Organization in the context of the recent Ebola epidemics in Africa.
March: https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck ... six-months
Professor Pollard told MPs: “I believe that six months is possible, but it needs a lot of things to fall in place in order for that to happen… there’s lots of reasons why it may be more difficult to get there in that time period.”
I did find a Daily Mail article from April headlined:
Britain could have coronavirus vaccine within WEEKS
But that article begins:
EARLY signs of whether a British coronavirus vaccine works – or doesn’t – may be only weeks away, a leading expert has said.

Professor Sarah Gilbert said yesterday she was ‘80 per cent confident’ a vaccine that her team is developing at Oxford University would be effective, and that it could be ready by September.

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by jdc » Fri Oct 30, 2020 1:41 am

On the other hand...
On Tuesday, front-runner Pfizer revealed in an earnings call that the first interim analysis in its Phase 3 clinical trial has not yet occurred
Pfizer, which has been one of the most aggressive players in the vaccine race, had earlier predicted it would know by the end of September if its vaccine worked — an estimate that was later pushed back to late October.
Another manufacturer, Novavax, has pushed back the start date for its U.S. Phase 3 trial to the end of November; it had earlier said the trial would start this month.
Anna Durbin, a vaccine researcher at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, said the public needs to understand that Covid vaccines may be a bit further off than people have been led to believe.

“We may see efficacy in one or more trials by the end of 2020, but that doesn’t mean we’re going to have a vaccine available at the end of 2020,” she said.

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Bird on a Fire » Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:29 am

Thanks for keeping track of these, jdc.

I think "we've got a vaccine nearly ready" is such a huge claim that I want to wait for pretty strong evidence before I believe it, and instinctively I mistrust marketing statements from Big Pharma.

I'm wondering what kinds of plans and scenarios are being developed for the rollout. It would be a bit embarrassing if after a vaccine is developed there's a chaotic unpleasant scramble within and between countries to vaccinate people.
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