US Election
Re: US Election
The micro states aren't actually that much of a problem, as they (currently) even out. Per 2016:
Democrats:
3 Maine (split districts)
3 Vermont
3 Hawaii
3 DC
3 Delaware
4 Rhode Is
4 New Hamp
5 New Mex
Total 28
Republicans
1 Maine (split districts)
3 Wyoming
3 South Dak
3 North Dak
3 Montana
3 Alaska
4 Idaho
5 West Virg
5 Nebraska (split districts)
Total 30
In 2020 the Nebraska NE-2 district could easily switch to Democrats, to make it 29 vs 29.
The EC problem appears to arise in the next tier, the 6 to 8 EC range:
Democrats
6 Nevada
7 Oregon
7 Connecticut
8 Washington
Total 28
Republicans
6 Utah
6 Mississippi
6 Kansas
6 Iowa
6 Arkansas
7 Oklahoma
8 Louisiana
8 Kentucky
Total 53
Then the difference builds even more in the 9 to 11 range:
Democrats
9 Colorado
10 Minnesota
10 Maryland
11 Massachusetts
Total 40
Republicans
9 South Carolina
9 Alabama
10 Wisconsin
10 Missouri
11 Tennessee
11 Indiana
11 Arizona
Total 71
So that builds to a 2016 lead of 154 Republicans vs 96 Democrats, and basically gives the structural EC advantage and handed Trump the win.
Of course, Biden should level the score in 2020 - if he wins Wisconsin, Iowa, NE-2 and Arizona then these small and medium states will be a basic tie (126 Trump vs 124 Biden). Yet this tie in the small/mediums will actually be against the backdrop of a very solid Biden win - assuming Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida etc also go to Biden then we would be in the region of a 340-198 victory.
Democrats:
3 Maine (split districts)
3 Vermont
3 Hawaii
3 DC
3 Delaware
4 Rhode Is
4 New Hamp
5 New Mex
Total 28
Republicans
1 Maine (split districts)
3 Wyoming
3 South Dak
3 North Dak
3 Montana
3 Alaska
4 Idaho
5 West Virg
5 Nebraska (split districts)
Total 30
In 2020 the Nebraska NE-2 district could easily switch to Democrats, to make it 29 vs 29.
The EC problem appears to arise in the next tier, the 6 to 8 EC range:
Democrats
6 Nevada
7 Oregon
7 Connecticut
8 Washington
Total 28
Republicans
6 Utah
6 Mississippi
6 Kansas
6 Iowa
6 Arkansas
7 Oklahoma
8 Louisiana
8 Kentucky
Total 53
Then the difference builds even more in the 9 to 11 range:
Democrats
9 Colorado
10 Minnesota
10 Maryland
11 Massachusetts
Total 40
Republicans
9 South Carolina
9 Alabama
10 Wisconsin
10 Missouri
11 Tennessee
11 Indiana
11 Arizona
Total 71
So that builds to a 2016 lead of 154 Republicans vs 96 Democrats, and basically gives the structural EC advantage and handed Trump the win.
Of course, Biden should level the score in 2020 - if he wins Wisconsin, Iowa, NE-2 and Arizona then these small and medium states will be a basic tie (126 Trump vs 124 Biden). Yet this tie in the small/mediums will actually be against the backdrop of a very solid Biden win - assuming Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida etc also go to Biden then we would be in the region of a 340-198 victory.
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Re: US Election
Part of the reason the EC contributes to such disproportionate results is the FPTP method of awarding the votes - it seems normal that if a candidate gets 51% of people's votes in a given states they'll get 100% of the EC votes, rather than being awarded proportionately.
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Re: US Election
"Folks, voter fraud is real and to prove it I want all of you to commit voter fraud."FlammableFlower wrote: ↑Thu Sep 03, 2020 9:21 amTrump encourages supports to vote twice - that couldn't possibly go wrong...
Washington Post wrote:President Trump, on Wednesday during a trip in battleground North Carolina, urged voters to vote twice, once by mail and once in person, to test the protections intended to guard against double voting.
Trump, who has claimed the 2020 election will be rife with fraud and rigged against him, was asked by a local television reporter whether he had confidence in the vote-by-mail system.
“Let them send it in and let them go vote, and if their system’s as good as they say it is, then obviously they won’t be able to vote. If it isn’t tabulated, they’ll be able to vote,” Trump said.
Intentionally voting twice is illegal, and in many states, including North Carolina, it is a felony.
The president also greeted supporters on the tarmac upon landing in Wilmington, N.C., and made nearly identical comments, encouraging them to send in their ballot “and then go in and vote.”
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Re: US Election
It's just bonkers.
Re: US Election
We're roughly two states away from there being a binding compact to automatically award 100% of EC votes to the winner of the national popular vote. This kicks in only when the total EC votes of states signed up is 270 or more. The compact is a matter of law in the signed up states, so not easy to renege on between the election and the EC vote.Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Thu Sep 03, 2020 12:59 pmPart of the reason the EC contributes to such disproportionate results is the FPTP method of awarding the votes - it seems normal that if a candidate gets 51% of people's votes in a given states they'll get 100% of the EC votes, rather than being awarded proportionately.
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Re: US Election
That sounds good in a way, though it does undermine the idea of the EC as a mechanism to prevent smaller, more rural states being 'bullied' by big population centres. It's a principle I'm in two minds about, even though I know that the current reality is largely progress being hindered by backwards-ass Republican country-c.nts.dyqik wrote: ↑Thu Sep 03, 2020 5:31 pmWe're roughly two states away from there being a binding compact to automatically award 100% of EC votes to the winner of the national popular vote. This kicks in only when the total EC votes of states signed up is 270 or more. The compact is a matter of law in the signed up states, so not easy to renege on between the election and the EC vote.Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Thu Sep 03, 2020 12:59 pmPart of the reason the EC contributes to such disproportionate results is the FPTP method of awarding the votes - it seems normal that if a candidate gets 51% of people's votes in a given states they'll get 100% of the EC votes, rather than being awarded proportionately.
As a complete guess - is it mostly blue states/administrations signing up?
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Re: US Election
The four occasions* where the national popular vote and electoral college vote disagreed have all resulted in Republicans beating Democrats, so I guess the red side of American politics isn't going to be happy about any change to the electoral college system!Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Thu Sep 03, 2020 6:07 pmThat sounds good in a way, though it does undermine the idea of the EC as a mechanism to prevent smaller, more rural states being 'bullied' by big population centres. It's a principle I'm in two minds about, even though I know that the current reality is largely progress being hindered by backwards-ass Republican country-c.nts.dyqik wrote: ↑Thu Sep 03, 2020 5:31 pmWe're roughly two states away from there being a binding compact to automatically award 100% of EC votes to the winner of the national popular vote. This kicks in only when the total EC votes of states signed up is 270 or more. The compact is a matter of law in the signed up states, so not easy to renege on between the election and the EC vote.Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Thu Sep 03, 2020 12:59 pmPart of the reason the EC contributes to such disproportionate results is the FPTP method of awarding the votes - it seems normal that if a candidate gets 51% of people's votes in a given states they'll get 100% of the EC votes, rather than being awarded proportionately.
As a complete guess - is it mostly blue states/administrations signing up?
[* Ignoring the 1824 election which wasn't on party lines.]
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Re: US Election
Mostly, but that includes several "red" states, I think.Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Thu Sep 03, 2020 6:07 pmThat sounds good in a way, though it does undermine the idea of the EC as a mechanism to prevent smaller, more rural states being 'bullied' by big population centres. It's a principle I'm in two minds about, even though I know that the current reality is largely progress being hindered by backwards-ass Republican country-c.nts.dyqik wrote: ↑Thu Sep 03, 2020 5:31 pmWe're roughly two states away from there being a binding compact to automatically award 100% of EC votes to the winner of the national popular vote. This kicks in only when the total EC votes of states signed up is 270 or more. The compact is a matter of law in the signed up states, so not easy to renege on between the election and the EC vote.Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Thu Sep 03, 2020 12:59 pmPart of the reason the EC contributes to such disproportionate results is the FPTP method of awarding the votes - it seems normal that if a candidate gets 51% of people's votes in a given states they'll get 100% of the EC votes, rather than being awarded proportionately.
As a complete guess - is it mostly blue states/administrations signing up?
Even Kansas has a Democrat governor.
Anyway, the small states still get two Senators each, same as California.
Re: US Election
My understanding is that small to moderate sized states used to be fairly evenly split between the two parties but as the urban-rural divide has grown, those smallish states have entrenched a Republican advantage in the EC and senate. At least until Texas gets to 55% democratic voters, thus throwing all their EC votes and senators to the other party.
I think the real problem that's been revealed by the current alignment of rural/urban voters with particular parties is the degree to which rural voters have had disproportionate impact on the policy positions of both parties for many decades. If either party wanted to get a policy through congress, they had to find ways to keep numerically small but politically powerful rural voters on side.
I think the US would be a very different country if political success matched policy outcomes that are popular with the voting public.
Re: US Election
I mentioned, back in January a book by Tim Moore who drove across America in a Model T. As much of the trip was across rural America he got to see the differences between rural and urban American voters and why middle America and the fly-over states voted so overwhelmingly for Trump and Republicans in general. Worth a read.Squeak wrote: ↑Fri Sep 04, 2020 4:25 amMy understanding is that small to moderate sized states used to be fairly evenly split between the two parties but as the urban-rural divide has grown, those smallish states have entrenched a Republican advantage in the EC and senate. At least until Texas gets to 55% democratic voters, thus throwing all their EC votes and senators to the other party.
I think the real problem that's been revealed by the current alignment of rural/urban voters with particular parties is the degree to which rural voters have had disproportionate impact on the policy positions of both parties for many decades. If either party wanted to get a policy through congress, they had to find ways to keep numerically small but politically powerful rural voters on side.
I think the US would be a very different country if political success matched policy outcomes that are popular with the voting public.
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Re: US Election
Interesting that the Republican defence of Trump allegedly curling out a steaming log onto the graves of the US war-dead is:-
"Does that sound the sort of thing Trump would do?"
The answer to which will split exactly along party lines.
Today's cryptic crossword clue: "Coconutty chocolate bar, Captain Bonespurs allows Putin to pay Taliban fighters for a "Taste of Paradise" (6)"
"Does that sound the sort of thing Trump would do?"
The answer to which will split exactly along party lines.
Today's cryptic crossword clue: "Coconutty chocolate bar, Captain Bonespurs allows Putin to pay Taliban fighters for a "Taste of Paradise" (6)"
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Re: US Election
I'm not sure what surprises me less about the current revelations re: Trump and war dead and war wounded, the ableism of his treatment of war wounded - wanting amputees hidden from sight - or the way he is just completely incapable of comprehending things that make sense to ordinary humans, like why dogs are good, or in this case, the concept of self-sacrifice.
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Re: US Election
The huge disadvantage of democracy is that it allows a majority to bully a minority. Unfortunately, the alternative is to allow a minority to bully a majority, which is why we can't do better than democracy.Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Thu Sep 03, 2020 6:07 pm... though it does undermine the idea of the EC as a mechanism to prevent smaller, more rural states being 'bullied' by big population centres. It's a principle I'm in two minds about,...
Re: US Election
First off, I’m almost certainly Aspergers and I have family that are diagnosed ASD, so I’m not saying ASD peeps are c.nts by nature. Idle speculation, could it be a compounding of him being undiagnosed ASD and being brought up in a horrendous family environment? Some of the behaviours fit, eg: only talking about himself, not shutting up, not being able to read other people, weird obsessions, etc... All that on top of being the massive tw.t that his father taught him to be would hinder his ability to understand other people. I also have from a first hand report that his is actually quite stupid, (a friend did business with him in NYC).EACLucifer wrote: ↑Fri Sep 04, 2020 9:03 amI'm not sure what surprises me less about the current revelations re: Trump and war dead and war wounded, the ableism of his treatment of war wounded - wanting amputees hidden from sight - or the way he is just completely incapable of comprehending things that make sense to ordinary humans, like why dogs are good, or in this case, the concept of self-sacrifice.
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Re: US Election
If we’re into amateur diagnosis then I think that Narcissistic Personality Disorder is more likely.bjn wrote: ↑Sat Sep 05, 2020 8:05 amFirst off, I’m almost certainly Aspergers and I have family that are diagnosed ASD, so I’m not saying ASD peeps are c.nts by nature. Idle speculation, could it be a compounding of him being undiagnosed ASD and being brought up in a horrendous family environment? Some of the behaviours fit, eg: only talking about himself, not shutting up, not being able to read other people, weird obsessions, etc... All that on top of being the massive tw.t that his father taught him to be would hinder his ability to understand other people. I also have from a first hand report that his is actually quite stupid, (a friend did business with him in NYC).EACLucifer wrote: ↑Fri Sep 04, 2020 9:03 amI'm not sure what surprises me less about the current revelations re: Trump and war dead and war wounded, the ableism of his treatment of war wounded - wanting amputees hidden from sight - or the way he is just completely incapable of comprehending things that make sense to ordinary humans, like why dogs are good, or in this case, the concept of self-sacrifice.
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Re: US Election
What could possibly go wrong?
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Re: US Election
Strong contender for a Darwin* Award there.
*sorry I meant Divine Design According to the Ineffable Plan Award.
*sorry I meant Divine Design According to the Ineffable Plan Award.
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Re: US Election
Aside from the obvious safety risks, what an utterly useless holster that is, it must take forever to draw the pistol compared to a conventional holster, and it makes it obvious to any ne'er-do-well who to shoot first if things do kick off.Vertigowooyay wrote: ↑Sat Sep 05, 2020 4:32 pmWhat could possibly go wrong?
3D1D541E-CFBC-4890-B6D1-46C9E8C17D86.jpeg7153F30E-F4E9-40E8-8726-90C970E09AE3.jpeg
Re: US Election
Yes, fumbling that could be interesting. Don't many handguns now come without safety catches?EACLucifer wrote: ↑Sat Sep 05, 2020 5:22 pmAside from the obvious safety risks, what an utterly useless holster that is, it must take forever to draw the pistol compared to a conventional holster, and it makes it obvious to any ne'er-do-well who to shoot first if things do kick off.Vertigowooyay wrote: ↑Sat Sep 05, 2020 4:32 pmWhat could possibly go wrong?
3D1D541E-CFBC-4890-B6D1-46C9E8C17D86.jpeg7153F30E-F4E9-40E8-8726-90C970E09AE3.jpeg
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation
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Re: US Election
Trump's response to the Navalny's poisoning: we're investigating, but rather than looking at if Russia is behind it, people should be investigating whether it might be China...
Just wow.
Just wow.
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Re: US Election
That immediately reminded me of women talking on mobile phones pushed between the side of their face and their hijab.Vertigowooyay wrote: ↑Sat Sep 05, 2020 4:32 pmWhat could possibly go wrong?
3D1D541E-CFBC-4890-B6D1-46C9E8C17D86.jpeg7153F30E-F4E9-40E8-8726-90C970E09AE3.jpeg
(ETA just in case, not because I associate hijabs with violence (I don't), it was just a mildly amusing juxtaposition)
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Re: US Election
I hope the news story about the Trump boat rally boats being in distress is a metaphor for the campaign
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Re: US Election
I often quite enjoy John Oliver's Last Week Tonight main story segments (especially when the title sounds extremely boring, and he trots out 20 minutes of quality journalism on a neglected topic).
The latest one is covering RNC 2020 and Kenosha. I don't know if it's good yet because I've only just started watching, but I've just seen my first clip of the scary shouty cocaine lady and hooooooly sh.t lpm wasn't exaggerating.
The latest one is covering RNC 2020 and Kenosha. I don't know if it's good yet because I've only just started watching, but I've just seen my first clip of the scary shouty cocaine lady and hooooooly sh.t lpm wasn't exaggerating.
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Re: US Election
yeah, that was a good one. I didn't really laugh much, but I agreed the f.ck out of it
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Re: US Election
Haven't seen anyone mention this yet.
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