COVID-19

shpalman · Post by **shpalman** » Sun Sep 06, 2020 5:00 pm

The 2nd of September seems to be the last day that we have the numbers of tests (Pillar 1 or 2) carried out in England but I'm sure they haven't increased exponentially the way the number of cases has.

jimbob · Post by **jimbob** » Sun Sep 06, 2020 5:16 pm

jimbob wrote: Mon Aug 31, 2020 6:57 am
jimbob wrote: Sat Aug 22, 2020 2:34 pm The raw positive cases they have are also pretty small.

New map

More in the Central Belt, the Severn Estuary area and the North East with a quick eyeballing

: Annotation 2020-09-06 180933.png (96.84 KiB) Viewed 5319 times

sTeamTraen · Post by **sTeamTraen** » Sun Sep 06, 2020 6:32 pm

I'm not sure how useful those images are without taking into account population density. Like those maps of "some alleged social problem that differs between blue and red states" in the US, that all map pretty much perfectly onto major population centres (mostly in blue states).

jimbob · Post by **jimbob** » Sun Sep 06, 2020 7:48 pm

sTeamTraen wrote: Sun Sep 06, 2020 6:32 pm I'm not sure how useful those images are without taking into account population density. Like those maps of "some alleged social problem that differs between blue and red states" in the US, that all map pretty much perfectly onto major population centres (mostly in blue states).

That's why I'm posting the trends - so we can see the changes. Earlier on Bristol was clear, for example.

Also, at the moment, we're bumping along the noise threshold of their symptomatic sensitivity for each constituency. There should be enough for a region, though.

I would prefer them to also randomly select willing app users for tests so we have a better idea in the community, and those without symptoms too.

lpm · Post by **lpm** » Sun Sep 06, 2020 10:31 pm

There's not enough testing capacity for large random testing programs.

Post by **Bird on a Fire** » Sun Sep 06, 2020 10:58 pm

lpm wrote: Sun Sep 06, 2020 10:31 pm There's not enough testing capacity for large random testing programs.

Not via the government's channels, but university labs could do it. Even undergrads can run PCRs, they're not that challenging.

bob sterman · Post by **bob sterman** » Mon Sep 07, 2020 5:44 am

Bird on a Fire wrote: Sun Sep 06, 2020 10:58 pm
lpm wrote: Sun Sep 06, 2020 10:31 pm There's not enough testing capacity for large random testing programs.
Not via the government's channels, but university labs could do it. Even undergrads can run PCRs, they're not that challenging.

Indeed. And many offered to. Or offered to loan PCR machines.

lpm · Post by **lpm** » Mon Sep 07, 2020 6:58 am

Then why aren't they already being used to support the government tes- oh wait, it's that gross incompetence thing again isn't it.

Little waster · Post by **Little waster** » Mon Sep 07, 2020 7:35 am

lpm wrote: Mon Sep 07, 2020 6:58 am Then why aren't they already being used to support the government tes- oh wait, it's that gross incompetence thing again isn't it.

Are we absolutely 100% certain it isn't somehow the fault of child-hating marxist teachers, anti-racism protesters or doom-mongering Remoaners? Can someone please check?

Grumble · Post by **Grumble** » Mon Sep 07, 2020 9:01 am

My kids have complained of or suffered from stomach upsets recently. I’m torn between government advice which doesn’t allow me a test for those symptoms and news reports saying that in children this can be an indicator of Covid-19.

bob sterman · Post by **bob sterman** » Mon Sep 07, 2020 9:21 am

Little waster wrote: Mon Sep 07, 2020 7:35 am
lpm wrote: Mon Sep 07, 2020 6:58 am Then why aren't they already being used to support the government tes- oh wait, it's that gross incompetence thing again isn't it.
Are we absolutely 100% certain it isn't somehow the fault of child-hating marxist teachers, anti-racism protesters or doom-mongering Remoaners? Can someone please check?

Well I know for sure that a couple of people who offerred to loan PCR machines were "doom-mongering Remoaners".

lpm · Post by **lpm** » Mon Sep 07, 2020 9:25 am

It's encouraging the surge in UK cases are concentrated in 18-21 year olds. This group are notorious for staying isolated from others. It's not like a million 18-21 year olds are suddenly going to move to another part of the country and mix with a new crowd.

jimbob · Post by **jimbob** » Mon Sep 07, 2020 11:11 am

This is a good dashboard

https://www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tracker/

bob sterman · Post by **bob sterman** » Mon Sep 07, 2020 12:45 pm

lpm wrote: Mon Sep 07, 2020 9:25 am It's encouraging the surge in UK cases are concentrated in 18-21 year olds. This group are notorious for staying isolated from others. It's not like a million 18-21 year olds are suddenly going to move to another part of the country and mix with a new crowd.

Indeed. And it's also not like they're all going go and sit in groups in rooms listening to older people in higher risk categories talking.

Post by **Woodchopper** » Mon Sep 07, 2020 4:58 pm

COVID-19 is, in the end, an endothelial disease
https://academic.oup.com/eurheartj/arti ... 38/5901158

jimbob · Post by **jimbob** » Mon Sep 07, 2020 5:18 pm

Grumble wrote: Mon Sep 07, 2020 9:01 am My kids have complained of or suffered from stomach upsets recently. I’m torn between government advice which doesn’t allow me a test for those symptoms and news reports saying that in children this can be an indicator of Covid-19.

It depends - do you trust the government or epidemiologists?

https://twitter.com/Dr2NisreenAlwan/sta ... 6880063488

Children with diarrhoea, vomiting and abdominal pain must be tested for #COVID19
Quote Tweet

https://twitter.com/bmj_latest/status/1 ... 1311008770

Gastrointestinal symptoms, including diarrhoea, vomiting, and abdominal cramps, are common in children infected with SARS-CoV-2 and should trigger tests for the virus, researchers have said

jimbob · Post by **jimbob** » Mon Sep 07, 2020 5:19 pm

Woodchopper wrote: Mon Sep 07, 2020 4:58 pm COVID-19 is, in the end, an endothelial disease
https://academic.oup.com/eurheartj/arti ... 38/5901158

Anyone able to evaluate that?

shpalman · Post by **shpalman** » Mon Sep 07, 2020 6:18 pm

Fatigue and headache are the most common Covid symptoms in children

... presumably because fatigue and headache in adults just means you're an adult.

The article actually says "Fatigue, headache and fever are the most common symptoms of coronavirus in children" which is why the url says "fatigue and fever" while the headline says "fatigue and headache".

lpm · Post by **lpm** » Mon Sep 07, 2020 8:59 pm

Today's UK figures presumably reflect infections from a few days ago.

1 day collating data, 1 day testing, 4 days between infection and symptoms?

So today represents what happened on bank holiday weekend or Tuesday 1 Sept?

Any guess as to how many cases represent imports - holiday abroad, catch it there, tested in UK a few days later?

Looks like we're seeing the success of Eat Out to Help the Virus Out and the full reopening of pubs, clubs, gyms, tattoos, beauty etc. But not yet the success of school reopening.

jimbob · Post by **jimbob** » Mon Sep 07, 2020 9:13 pm

Hospital admissions are rising now.
Even if it's hard to see on the cebm dashboard
https://twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status ... 82369?s=20

Post by **Woodchopper** » Tue Sep 08, 2020 7:26 am

jimbob wrote: Mon Sep 07, 2020 9:13 pm Hospital admissions are rising now.
Even if it's hard to see on the cebm dashboard
https://twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status ... 82369?s=20

Bad news.

PeteB · Post by **PeteB** » Tue Sep 08, 2020 11:50 am

#ActuaryByDay is worth following, very careful and measured, just saw him very politely correcting the latest Carl Heneghan nonsense

jimbob · Post by **jimbob** » Tue Sep 08, 2020 12:53 pm

PeteB wrote: Tue Sep 08, 2020 11:50 am #ActuaryByDay is worth following, very careful and measured, just saw him very politely correcting the latest Carl Heneghan nonsense

Oh, I do... Where's the tweet, and what's your Twitter handle?

Mine's @parkinjim

PeteB · Post by **PeteB** » Tue Sep 08, 2020 1:19 pm

https://twitter.com/carlheneghan/status ... 9668413440 I'll follow you

Worth looking at the previous replies to CH

gone very quiet now

jimbob · Post by **jimbob** » Tue Sep 08, 2020 1:52 pm

PeteB wrote: Tue Sep 08, 2020 1:19 pm https://twitter.com/carlheneghan/status ... 9668413440 I'll follow you

Worth looking at the previous replies to CH

gone very quiet now

Oh yes, thanks... very nicely done, because basic arithmetic is easy to spot

Scrutable

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