Kruger-Dunning effect "mostly a statistical artifact"
- sTeamTraen
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Kruger-Dunning effect "mostly a statistical artifact"
It looks like Skeptics in the Pub attendees are about to experience their other favourite psychological effect, cognitive dissonance, as new analyses show that the Kruger-Dunning* effect is mostly not there. (The canonical empirical article from cognitive dissonance research is under a bit of a cloud, too.)
*Popularly called the Dunning-Kruger effect, but the paper was by Kruger and Dunning, in that order. Apparently they don't speak to each other much any more, as Kruger feels that Dunning has been rather over-egging his claims all these years, eg by swapping the names around.
*Popularly called the Dunning-Kruger effect, but the paper was by Kruger and Dunning, in that order. Apparently they don't speak to each other much any more, as Kruger feels that Dunning has been rather over-egging his claims all these years, eg by swapping the names around.
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Re: Kruger-Dunning effect "mostly a statistical artifact"
I know I know nowt about statistics. And I have read before that the Dunning Kruger effect may just be regression toward the mean. But does that mean that the effect is not there but merely the appearance of an effect?
When does the appearance of an effect become an effect?
When does the appearance of an effect become an effect?
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Re: Kruger-Dunning effect "mostly a statistical artifact"
I've only read the abstract, so maybe this is dealt with in the paper.sTeamTraen wrote: ↑Sun Sep 13, 2020 8:29 amIt looks like Skeptics in the Pub attendees are about to experience their other favourite psychological effect, cognitive dissonance, as new analyses show that the Kruger-Dunning* effect is mostly not there. (The canonical empirical article from cognitive dissonance research is under a bit of a cloud, too.)
*Popularly called the Dunning-Kruger effect, but the paper was by Kruger and Dunning, in that order. Apparently they don't speak to each other much any more, as Kruger feels that Dunning has been rather over-egging his claims all these years, eg by swapping the names around.
I normally hear the KD effect cited for very specific skills - for instance, somebody tone deaf might not realise that they're singing out of tune. The problem with using "intelligence" as the skill they're assessing, rather than performance in a particular task, is that it's not easy to participate in society without quite quickly (during childhood) getting an externally-derived sense of your own relative intelligence, which is probably accurate enough for people to know where they are at the study's resolution of four quartiles.
If they're claiming it's a statistical artefact, surely the thing to do is simulate random data, apply the analytical methods being called into question, then demonstrate the spurious appearance of said effect.
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- bob sterman
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Re: Kruger-Dunning effect "mostly a statistical artifact"
Errr...with the way promotions work in some organisations it would be quite easy to get an externally-derived overinflated sense of your own relative intelligence!!!Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Sun Sep 13, 2020 3:05 pmI normally hear the KD effect cited for very specific skills - for instance, somebody tone deaf might not realise that they're singing out of tune. The problem with using "intelligence" as the skill they're assessing, rather than performance in a particular task, is that it's not easy to participate in society without quite quickly (during childhood) getting an externally-derived sense of your own relative intelligence, which is probably accurate enough for people to know where they are at the study's resolution of four quartiles.
Re: Kruger-Dunning effect "mostly a statistical artifact"
See the current Cabinet for examples.bob sterman wrote: ↑Sun Sep 13, 2020 6:17 pmErrr...with the way promotions work in some organisations it would be quite easy to get an externally-derived overinflated sense of your own relative intelligence!!!Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Sun Sep 13, 2020 3:05 pmI normally hear the KD effect cited for very specific skills - for instance, somebody tone deaf might not realise that they're singing out of tune. The problem with using "intelligence" as the skill they're assessing, rather than performance in a particular task, is that it's not easy to participate in society without quite quickly (during childhood) getting an externally-derived sense of your own relative intelligence, which is probably accurate enough for people to know where they are at the study's resolution of four quartiles.
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Re: Kruger-Dunning effect "mostly a statistical artifact"
I knew it was all along.
where once I used to scintillate
now I sin till ten past three
now I sin till ten past three
- sTeamTraen
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Re: Kruger-Dunning effect "mostly a statistical artifact"
The appearance of this new article means that the KD effect is now poised perfectly for meta-jokes down to any depth.
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Re: Kruger-Dunning effect "mostly a statistical artifact"
It's Kruger-Dunnings all the way down.sTeamTraen wrote: ↑Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:35 amThe appearance of this new article means that the KD effect is now poised perfectly for meta-jokes down to any depth.
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