Seasonal effect?
- bob sterman
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Seasonal effect?
Carl Heneghan is frequently in the news telling us that COVID-19 is not as big a threat as we think.
But what on earth is he going on about here?
https://twitter.com/carlheneghan/status ... 1142833152
He writes "This is what it looks like in Oldham - shows restrictive measures didn't affect the outcome as the infection is currently increasing in line with a seasonal effect" with this figure...
For this July-August seasonal increase - does he know Oldham is in the Northern Hemisphere and neither month is known for its particularly high levels of respiratory viruses?
Looks much more like cases declining after something happened at the end of March, and then increasing again after something happened in early July. Wonder what that could be???
But what on earth is he going on about here?
https://twitter.com/carlheneghan/status ... 1142833152
He writes "This is what it looks like in Oldham - shows restrictive measures didn't affect the outcome as the infection is currently increasing in line with a seasonal effect" with this figure...
For this July-August seasonal increase - does he know Oldham is in the Northern Hemisphere and neither month is known for its particularly high levels of respiratory viruses?
Looks much more like cases declining after something happened at the end of March, and then increasing again after something happened in early July. Wonder what that could be???
Re: Seasonal effect?
It must be that he thinks that because it's a different season on the calendar it must be because of that. Because, as we all know, nature always obeys our arbitrary calendar and we never ever get snow in spring or a warm day in December. Because science. Because his statement bears no relation to any understanding of epidemiology at all. Please tell me this man is not an epidemiologist?!
Non fui. Fui. Non sum. Non curo.
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Re: Seasonal effect?
He's not just a Clinical Epidemiologist - he is Director of the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine (CEBM) at Oxford...nezumi wrote: ↑Sat Sep 19, 2020 12:12 pmIt must be that he thinks that because it's a different season on the calendar it must be because of that. Because, as we all know, nature always obeys our arbitrary calendar and we never ever get snow in spring or a warm day in December. Because science. Because his statement bears no relation to any understanding of epidemiology at all. Please tell me this man is not an epidemiologist?!
https://www.phc.ox.ac.uk/team/carl-heneghan
He's generally pretty vocal in his opposition to most "lockdown" stuff - and doesn't tend to acknowledge when "lockdowns" might have worked - as in this tweet...
https://twitter.com/carlheneghan/status ... 0591808512
"Out of 213 countries with Covid, China is 201st when it comes to cases per popn. - anyone have a good explanation for this anomaly?"
Err....just perhaps this could have something to do with vast quarantine centres and the most brutal and violently enforced lockdown in the world with some people having doors to their apartments welded shut? (not saying we should follow these examples).
Re: Seasonal effect?
Then I clearly do not understand as much epidemiology as I thought I did. Better get back to studyingbob sterman wrote: ↑Sat Sep 19, 2020 12:24 pm
He's not just a Clinical Epidemiologist - he is Director of the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine (CEBM) at Oxford...
Non fui. Fui. Non sum. Non curo.
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Re: Seasonal effect?
We're not even 3 weeks into meteorological autumn and given the case data lag it's far too early to see a seasonal effect. It'd be interesting to know if he's adjusted that data for testing rates as that will have an impact on case numbers reported.
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Re: Seasonal effect?
What is the seasonal explanation for the curves of, say, the United States or Australia?
Something something hammer something something nail
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Re: Seasonal effect?
It just boggles the mind that the Director of the "Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine" could put this out as "evidence" of anything.
Stamped with a "Trust the Evidence" logo.
Stamped with a "Trust the Evidence" logo.
Re: Seasonal effect?
Trying and failing to get my head around this.
Is he saying that "restrictive measures didn't affect the outcome" because to him, 'affecting the outcome' means reducing the case numbers in a much more pronounced way. Like to almost zero after lockdown? And that therefore the small effect on numbers (as he sees it) therefore must be down to something else, because if lockdown had worked, it would have had a much bigger effect, so it must be.... seasons, yes, that fits. It's seasons, not lockdown? Wtf?
It's easier for me to believe his Twitter is a parody account, or the organisation which he represents isn't as kosher as it sounds, than believe that anyone vaguely numerate could make the argument in that tweet and feel it was well reasoned and publicly defendable.
Please help me understand.
Is he saying that "restrictive measures didn't affect the outcome" because to him, 'affecting the outcome' means reducing the case numbers in a much more pronounced way. Like to almost zero after lockdown? And that therefore the small effect on numbers (as he sees it) therefore must be down to something else, because if lockdown had worked, it would have had a much bigger effect, so it must be.... seasons, yes, that fits. It's seasons, not lockdown? Wtf?
It's easier for me to believe his Twitter is a parody account, or the organisation which he represents isn't as kosher as it sounds, than believe that anyone vaguely numerate could make the argument in that tweet and feel it was well reasoned and publicly defendable.
Please help me understand.
Re: Seasonal effect?
He's just sh.t and doesn't admit he's wrong
A clearer cut example
https://twitter.com/carlheneghan/status ... 9668413440
A clearer cut example
https://twitter.com/carlheneghan/status ... 9668413440
Re: Seasonal effect?
Or as James Annan says
https://twitter.com/jamesannan/status/1 ... 1050054656
“Seasonal effect” had me ROFLing.
I wonder if there’s anyone left who still hasn’t worked him out yet?
https://twitter.com/jamesannan/status/1 ... 1050054656
“Seasonal effect” had me ROFLing.
I wonder if there’s anyone left who still hasn’t worked him out yet?
- bob sterman
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Re: Seasonal effect?
Heneghan is in the news pretty much every day - talking about new evidence that supposedly shows that COVID-19 is not a major threat any more, that we shoudn't introduce particular lockdown measures, or require people to wear masks etc etc. A lot of the evidence is published in the form of "rapid reviews" in the CEBM blog. Rather than in peer-reviewed papers or on pre-print servers where others could comment (they don't allow comments on the CEBM reports)...
https://www.cebm.net/oxford-covid-19-evidence-service/
What they call the "Oxford COVID-19 Evidence Service" mixes science with advocacy (e.g. reports titled "Does the resurgence of COVID-19 in Spain exhibit exponential growth?" are mixed with others such as "Bin the rule of six").
Heneghan himself authors a new report on the blog 2-3 times a week - describing new evidence that is apparently so important that it urgently requires a big media engagement drive and pubic dissemination campaign. Not many scientists can even dream of producing work 2-3 times a week that is of such rigour and significance that it demands the attention of the nation's media and policymakers on each occasion.
I guess these engagement activities keep him very busy - as although he has authored hundreds of publications in peer-reviewed journals - over 20 this year alone - none of his work on COVID-19 appears to have yet appeared in the form an a peer-reviewed empirical report in a journal (at least I can't find any on Scopus / Pubmed yet).
https://www.cebm.net/oxford-covid-19-evidence-service/
What they call the "Oxford COVID-19 Evidence Service" mixes science with advocacy (e.g. reports titled "Does the resurgence of COVID-19 in Spain exhibit exponential growth?" are mixed with others such as "Bin the rule of six").
Heneghan himself authors a new report on the blog 2-3 times a week - describing new evidence that is apparently so important that it urgently requires a big media engagement drive and pubic dissemination campaign. Not many scientists can even dream of producing work 2-3 times a week that is of such rigour and significance that it demands the attention of the nation's media and policymakers on each occasion.
I guess these engagement activities keep him very busy - as although he has authored hundreds of publications in peer-reviewed journals - over 20 this year alone - none of his work on COVID-19 appears to have yet appeared in the form an a peer-reviewed empirical report in a journal (at least I can't find any on Scopus / Pubmed yet).
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Re: Seasonal effect?
Google Scholar (which picks up a lot beyond peer-reviewed articles) lists 47 publications for him this year.bob sterman wrote: ↑Sun Sep 20, 2020 9:10 amI guess these engagement activities keep him very busy - as although he has authored hundreds of publications in peer-reviewed journals - over 20 this year alone - none of his work on COVID-19 appears to have yet appeared in the form an a peer-reviewed empirical report in a journal (at least I can't find any on Scopus / Pubmed yet).
11 of those mention COVID or SARS-CoV-2 in the title, but they seem to be mostly working papers on the CEBM web site (of which he is a director), with a couple of preprints that might never see the light of day in a peer-reviewed journal. One of these investigates whether COVID-19 can be [PDF] transmitted by the orofecal route, so if you don't like this guy's research, I guess you can eat sh.t.
Something something hammer something something nail
Re: Seasonal effect?
The US at least has people moving indoors more in summer as it's too f.cking hot outside, and moving inside in winter, as it's too f.cking cold outside. And moving inside in fall, because the forest fires have made it so smoky that you can't breathe outside. Spring in most regions lasts for two weeks.sTeamTraen wrote: ↑Sat Sep 19, 2020 4:34 pmWhat is the seasonal explanation for the curves of, say, the United States or Australia?
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Re: Seasonal effect?
Isn't this where Ben Goldacre works? Heneghan's stuff seems like the sort of thing he would have written about in his old Guardian column.bob sterman wrote: ↑Sat Sep 19, 2020 12:24 pm
He's not just a Clinical Epidemiologist - he is Director of the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine (CEBM) at Oxford...
Re: Seasonal effect?
They do indeed work at the same place.MartinDurkin wrote: ↑Mon Sep 21, 2020 8:19 amIsn't this where Ben Goldacre works? Heneghan's stuff seems like the sort of thing he would have written about in his old Guardian column.bob sterman wrote: ↑Sat Sep 19, 2020 12:24 pm
He's not just a Clinical Epidemiologist - he is Director of the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine (CEBM) at Oxford...
Professor of EBM at the University of Oxford. Director of the Nuffield's CEBM. It seems like there's plenty of people who haven't worked him out yet...
Re: Seasonal effect?
I notice Henneghan and Gupta were invited to the No 10 summit to overrule the scaredy cats Whitty and Vallance
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Re: Seasonal effect?
Getting the "superforecasters" in???PeteB wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 7:08 amI notice Henneghan and Gupta were invited to the No 10 summit to overrule the scaredy cats Whitty and Vallance
Would this be the same Professor Gupta who told us in March that by that point COVID-19 had infected almost 50% of the popultion - only to be proved wrong when serology studies showed that it was closer to 5% even by May. And who pretty much every week since then has been telling us that we've almost reached "herd immunity"???
Re: Seasonal effect?
Gupta, Hennegan and Sikora authored the letter mentioned in the article, and they're all pushing the herd immunity agenda pretty hard from what I can see on big platforms.
Sikora has form (though a large following) but Gupta and Hennegan present as reasonable authorities and are indeed "leading academics".
Am not sure how their call for "more targeted measures" would actually work, maybe move all the over 65s to the isle of man so the rest of us can carry on as normal? But they are getting a lot of traction from people whose trust in the Govt has been worn down and are desperate not to go into lockdown again.
I see a lot of people asking why most of the places hit hard first time around are doing better now, and therefore it must be some kind of immunity, and therefore Gupta etc are onto something (T cells/cross reactivity has already given us much higher immunity in some places, or much more than we think). And not just KBF types, it's much broader than that.
Sikora has form (though a large following) but Gupta and Hennegan present as reasonable authorities and are indeed "leading academics".
Am not sure how their call for "more targeted measures" would actually work, maybe move all the over 65s to the isle of man so the rest of us can carry on as normal? But they are getting a lot of traction from people whose trust in the Govt has been worn down and are desperate not to go into lockdown again.
I see a lot of people asking why most of the places hit hard first time around are doing better now, and therefore it must be some kind of immunity, and therefore Gupta etc are onto something (T cells/cross reactivity has already given us much higher immunity in some places, or much more than we think). And not just KBF types, it's much broader than that.
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Re: Seasonal effect?
Of course - that will happen eventually. It's just that Gupta has been banging on about us being on the cusp of "herd immunity" since March. Even suggesting that the threshold for "herd immunity" for this virus might be as low as 20% of the population exposed. Conveniently ignoring data such as what happend on the Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier (60% of crew managed to get infected). Serology has shown London is around 20% and the city does not appear to be unaffected by the recent rises ("seasonal effect"???).badger wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:27 amI see a lot of people asking why most of the places hit hard first time around are doing better now, and therefore it must be some kind of immunity, and therefore Gupta etc are onto something (T cells/cross reactivity has already given us much higher immunity in some places, or much more than we think). And not just KBF types, it's much broader than that.
Eventually spread will slow down - and she'll finally be right. Stopped clock and all that.
Re: Seasonal effect?
Of course, the most powerful season in the US is election season. Or maybe college football season.dyqik wrote: ↑Sun Sep 20, 2020 10:24 pmThe US at least has people moving indoors more in summer as it's too f.cking hot outside, and moving inside in winter, as it's too f.cking cold outside. And moving inside in fall, because the forest fires have made it so smoky that you can't breathe outside. Spring in most regions lasts for two weeks.sTeamTraen wrote: ↑Sat Sep 19, 2020 4:34 pmWhat is the seasonal explanation for the curves of, say, the United States or Australia?
Re: Seasonal effect?
Hmmm, I get the stopped clock thing and am not saying Gupta is right, but using aircraft carrier data when discussing herd immunity threshold calculations *can* be ignored, can't they? The R number would have been very different and we are not calculating for a population sharing each other's space on a tin can with recycled air. It's the sort of argument that plays into Gupta's hands.bob sterman wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:54 amOf course - that will happen eventually. It's just that Gupta has been banging on about us being on the cusp of "herd immunity" since March. Even suggesting that the threshold for "herd immunity" for this virus might be as low as 20% of the population exposed. Conveniently ignoring data such as what happend on the Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier (60% of crew managed to get infected). Serology has shown London is around 20% and the city does not appear to be unaffected by the recent rises ("seasonal effect"???).badger wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:27 amI see a lot of people asking why most of the places hit hard first time around are doing better now, and therefore it must be some kind of immunity, and therefore Gupta etc are onto something (T cells/cross reactivity has already given us much higher immunity in some places, or much more than we think). And not just KBF types, it's much broader than that.
Eventually spread will slow down - and she'll finally be right. Stopped clock and all that.
London does look to be about 20% of antibody prevalence, but again if pre-existing immunity exists, or other kinds after infection, we need to acknowledge it's possibility, even if we don't yet know the percentage.
"Not unaffected"? Most London boroughs positive numbers have fallen this week. Some by as much as half. Probably due to testing farce, but numbers have been relatively low for sometime, even after back to work, back to pub, holidays, beaches, protests, raves and now schools have been back for over two weeks. I have some sympathy for those looking at Whitty & Vallance yesterday and not feeling like they were getting enough of an explanation.
Re: Seasonal effect?
Can't find where I saw it now, but saw recently a good explanation of how pre-existing herd immunity (e.g. vaccinated population) works a bit differently to how herd immunity develops naturally, where the fraction that are immune is not constant over time. The upshot is more people become infected by the disease being spread - e.g. you might stop the virus spreading if (say) 60% are pre-immune, but in a naive population, 75% might catch it before the HI stops it. Importantly, the higher the R number, the bigger this overshoot will be, so slowing the spread of the virus also decreases the endpoint in the total number who'll actually catch it.
Re: Seasonal effect?
Interesting, also in the light of this pre-print of herd immunity in Brazil https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20194787v1AMS wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 11:56 amCan't find where I saw it now, but saw recently a good explanation of how pre-existing herd immunity (e.g. vaccinated population) works a bit differently to how herd immunity develops naturally, where the fraction that are immune is not constant over time. The upshot is more people become infected by the disease being spread - e.g. you might stop the virus spreading if (say) 60% are pre-immune, but in a naive population, 75% might catch it before the HI stops it. Importantly, the higher the R number, the bigger this overshoot will be, so slowing the spread of the virus also decreases the endpoint in the total number who'll actually catch it.
Just tweeted by @AdamJKucharski
Some people claiming that this supports theory of HIT of 40%, but not sure how...
Re: Seasonal effect?
I was listening to Neil Ferguson on the Life Scientific this morning and he said "It's not having an appreciable effect as yet, The most heavily effected area of the UK is London and there a few London boroughs where there is a hint of herd immunity having a effect but it's really too early to tell"
I would have thought 20% infected would have quite an effect if R is just over 1
R = R0x
So it would reduce R =R0*0.8
so for the same level of transmission comparing an area with X=.95 and x= 0.8 you would expect to see a significant difference
Doesn't mean it's safe, by any means but more wiggle room
I would have thought 20% infected would have quite an effect if R is just over 1
R = R0x
So it would reduce R =R0*0.8
so for the same level of transmission comparing an area with X=.95 and x= 0.8 you would expect to see a significant difference
Doesn't mean it's safe, by any means but more wiggle room