US Election

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JQH
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Re: US Election

Post by JQH » Wed Oct 07, 2020 4:07 pm

bolo wrote:
Wed Oct 07, 2020 3:44 pm
Here in Virginia, there is a state constitutional amendment on the ballot that would take redistricting out of the hands of the state legislature and governor and give it to a nonpartisan commission. The Dems fought hard for this, until late last year when they suddenly found themselves with a Dem governor and a Dem controlled state legislature and a chance at getting their own back through some pro-Dem gerrymandering.

It is, I have to admit, hard to decide how to vote on this measure.
This is similar to Labour's logic in not campaigning for PR on the grounds FPTP sometimes gives them huge majorities.

1. This ignores the fact that the status quo favours the Tories more often than them

2. Undemocratic act is undemocratic act even when we do it. Vote for commission.
And remember that if you botch the exit, the carnival of reaction may be coming to a town near you.

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Re: US Election

Post by jimbob » Wed Oct 07, 2020 7:45 pm

JQH wrote:
Wed Oct 07, 2020 4:07 pm
bolo wrote:
Wed Oct 07, 2020 3:44 pm
Here in Virginia, there is a state constitutional amendment on the ballot that would take redistricting out of the hands of the state legislature and governor and give it to a nonpartisan commission. The Dems fought hard for this, until late last year when they suddenly found themselves with a Dem governor and a Dem controlled state legislature and a chance at getting their own back through some pro-Dem gerrymandering.

It is, I have to admit, hard to decide how to vote on this measure.
This is similar to Labour's logic in not campaigning for PR on the grounds FPTP sometimes gives them huge majorities.

1. This ignores the fact that the status quo favours the Tories more often than them

2. Undemocratic act is undemocratic act even when we do it. Vote for commission.
Exactly - and there's a chance you'd want to get rid of an incumbent of a different stripe later
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: US Election

Post by Grumble » Wed Oct 07, 2020 7:48 pm

Things that were previously agreed as the way things were done turn out not to have been actual laws. Things which were assumed to protect democracy. It would be good to make them laws.
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Re: US Election

Post by FlammableFlower » Wed Oct 07, 2020 7:55 pm

So various Trump supporters are touting the "unredacted Russia report" which will show that Obama and Hilary deliberately concocted the investigation into Donald, which obviously showed him to be a paragon of virtue. This thereby shows that it's your patriotic duty to vote for Trump/Pence and definitely not Biden/Harris.

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Re: US Election

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Oct 07, 2020 8:41 pm

FlammableFlower wrote:
Wed Oct 07, 2020 7:55 pm
So various Trump supporters are touting the "unredacted Russia report" which will show that Obama and Hilary deliberately concocted the investigation into Donald, which obviously showed him to be a paragon of virtue. This thereby shows that it's your patriotic duty to vote for Trump/Pence and definitely not Biden/Harris.
Last time he said he'd declassify them, his own Justice Department argued in court that his tweets were speculation and politics, not fact.

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Re: US Election

Post by headshot » Wed Oct 07, 2020 9:58 pm

Ummm, he knows about this, right?
136D1CD3-8DBF-471A-9532-34BE1941BBE9.jpeg
136D1CD3-8DBF-471A-9532-34BE1941BBE9.jpeg (217.15 KiB) Viewed 2951 times

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Re: US Election

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Oct 07, 2020 10:04 pm

One of the interesting background stories to this election is fundraising and spending. Trump started with a financial advantage, but between very strong Dem fundraising across the board and alleged embezzlement of tens of millions from Trump's campaign, Biden and the Democrats have a strong advantage financially.

Already, Trump has pulled ads from Ohio and Iowa, while Biden's big ad buys in Ohio are about to start running. Now Trump's scaling back ads in the big three midwest swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Meanwhile, Biden has started to target Texas, and is forcing the out-fundraised Repubs to fight on more fronts than they can manage.

The Lincoln Project's "Operation Sam Houston" is targetting Texas too, and has already drawn a meltdown from the GOP's chair in that state.

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Re: US Election

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Oct 07, 2020 10:49 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Oct 07, 2020 10:04 pm
One of the interesting background stories to this election is fundraising and spending. Trump started with a financial advantage, but between very strong Dem fundraising across the board and alleged embezzlement of tens of millions from Trump's campaign, Biden and the Democrats have a strong advantage financially.

Already, Trump has pulled ads from Ohio and Iowa, while Biden's big ad buys in Ohio are about to start running. Now Trump's scaling back ads in the big three midwest swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Meanwhile, Biden has started to target Texas, and is forcing the out-fundraised Repubs to fight on more fronts than they can manage.

The Lincoln Project's "Operation Sam Houston" is targetting Texas too, and has already drawn a meltdown from the GOP's chair in that state.
f.ck. Made a mistake on this on got the midwest states wrong. The states are Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota, NOT Pennsylvania.

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Re: US Election

Post by dyqik » Wed Oct 07, 2020 11:16 pm

Pennsylvania is a weird one. One end is East Coast, the middle is Pennsyltucky and the other end is mid-West/industrial heartland.

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Re: US Election

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Oct 08, 2020 12:26 am

Look like Trump's strategy is to target Pennsylvania, Florida Arizona and Nevada, and to a much lesser extent the rest of the midwest, and hope he doesn't lose in the states like Ohio and Iowa, that he's pulled out from, and Georgia, and perhaps to go back with a last minute ad blitz, though that might prove less effective with so much early voting this time.

Thing is, he needs basically every state I've mentioned. He can't afford to lose Florida or Ohio or Georgia or Iowa, even though he's down in the first, slightly down in the latter, neck-a-neck in the third and slightly up in the fourth, and he still needs to hang on to some of the midwest, which Biden leads in. Arizona is another one he can't afford to lose, but even if he somehow manages to win in Nevada, a state Clinton held, he's still got to win in the midwest.

Effectively, as things stand, Trump has to win in every battleground race there is, even ones he's given up on, or that are consistently polling 6+ point leads for Biden. Biden only has to win a few.

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Re: US Election

Post by dyqik » Thu Oct 08, 2020 12:50 am

There's also North Carolina, which is enough for Biden.

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Re: US Election

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Oct 08, 2020 1:02 am

dyqik wrote:
Thu Oct 08, 2020 12:50 am
There's also North Carolina, which is enough for Biden.
Yeah. As it stands, Biden's got a lot of ors while Trump has a lot of ands on their paiths to 270 EVs

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Re: US Election

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Thu Oct 08, 2020 8:53 am

some of the latest polls are starting to look a bit... unbelievable. Biden ahead by 11 points in Florida. 13 points in Pennsylvania. Five points in Iowa. Two points in Texas. Seven points in North Carolina. One point in Ohio. Only two points behind in Missouri (which voted for Trump by a margin of 18.5 points in 2016).

Maybe those are outliers, maybe not. Maybe it'll trend back towards Trump a little bit, maybe not. But on these numbers Biden has a chance of getting a landslide.

Surely we can't be about to enter a world of relatively normal politics? Surely not. I won't believe until I can put my finger where the nails were.
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Re: US Election

Post by lpm » Thu Oct 08, 2020 9:03 am

It's a humiliation for Trump if Texas falls to the blues.

I've been tracking the Iowa Senate race, where Theresa "scrappy farm kid with farm kid values" Greenfield has slightly - but consistently - led the Republican Joni Ernst for a couple of months. She just travels the state, visiting local businesses, talking about social security & farming and recovery for the Covid impact. Seems to be working.

The Senate outcome was a massive disappointment in 2018. More important that Greenfield wins in Iowa than Biden does.
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Re: US Election

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Thu Oct 08, 2020 9:08 am

Another (not very) interesting factoid - if Trump wins Ohio but Biden wins the election, it'll break Ohio's perfect bellwether streak since 1964. The state has only gone the other way than the national result twice since 1896.
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Re: US Election

Post by lpm » Thu Oct 08, 2020 9:54 am

Very much premature chicken counting, and probably jinx causing, but there's various levels of Trump humiliation.

Basic:

MI, WI, PA, AZ = 290 vs 248 (2 state win)

Silver:

Add FL, NC = 334 vs 204 (4 state win)

Gold:

Add OH, GA, IA, TX = 413 vs 125 (8 state win)

Platinum:

Add random others for added lols, e.g Alaska, SC, KS = 431 vs 107.
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Re: US Election

Post by Grumble » Thu Oct 08, 2020 11:33 am

lpm wrote:
Thu Oct 08, 2020 9:54 am
Very much premature chicken counting, and probably jinx causing, but there's various levels of Trump humiliation.

Basic:

MI, WI, PA, AZ = 290 vs 248 (2 state win)

Silver:

Add FL, NC = 334 vs 204 (4 state win)

Gold:

Add OH, GA, IA, TX = 413 vs 125 (8 state win)

Platinum:

Add random others for added lols, e.g Alaska, SC, KS = 431 vs 107.
Nurse! lpm needs sedating again.
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Re: US Election

Post by dyqik » Thu Oct 08, 2020 1:54 pm

lpm wrote:
Thu Oct 08, 2020 9:54 am
Very much premature chicken counting, and probably jinx causing, but there's various levels of Trump humiliation.

Basic:

MI, WI, PA, AZ = 290 vs 248 (2 state win)

Silver:

Add FL, NC = 334 vs 204 (4 state win)

Gold:

Add OH, GA, IA, TX = 413 vs 125 (8 state win)

Platinum:

Add random others for added lols, e.g Alaska, SC, KS = 431 vs 107.
Lol-tastic Biden +14/+18/+15 A/RV/LV national poll this morning that puts Platinum within reach. Missouri with 10EV should be in that tier as well.

(that's probably an outlier)

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Re: US Election

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Thu Oct 08, 2020 2:15 pm

Lol-tastic South Carolina senate poll today as well. Harrison ahead of Graham by a point (though it's a partisan-sponsored poll).
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Re: US Election

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Thu Oct 08, 2020 3:33 pm

Double digit leads for Biden in every national GE poll today.
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Re: US Election

Post by Bird on a Fire » Thu Oct 08, 2020 10:27 pm

Am I the only one not remotely surprised by the polls?

Trump only just squeaked through in 2016 and he's lost a huge amount of support since then. The only way he was ever going to legitimately win 2020 was if the Dems really, really f.cked it up, which they seem to have avoided so far.
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Re: US Election

Post by tenchboy » Thu Oct 08, 2020 10:37 pm

Don't let him die, don't let him die, don't let him die.
If you want me Steve, just Snapchat me yeah? You know how to Snapchap me doncha Steve? You just...

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Re: US Election

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Oct 09, 2020 4:30 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Oct 07, 2020 8:41 pm
FlammableFlower wrote:
Wed Oct 07, 2020 7:55 pm
So various Trump supporters are touting the "unredacted Russia report" which will show that Obama and Hilary deliberately concocted the investigation into Donald, which obviously showed him to be a paragon of virtue. This thereby shows that it's your patriotic duty to vote for Trump/Pence and definitely not Biden/Harris.
Last time he said he'd declassify them, his own Justice Department argued in court that his tweets were speculation and politics, not fact.
Despite that ruling, Buzzfeed are making a play for the unredacted Mueller Report.

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Re: US Election

Post by jimbob » Fri Oct 09, 2020 6:13 am

tenchboy wrote:
Thu Oct 08, 2020 10:37 pm
Don't let him die, don't let him die, don't let him die.
No he needs removing as quickly as possible
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: US Election

Post by tenchboy » Fri Oct 09, 2020 7:33 am

jimbob wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 6:13 am
tenchboy wrote:
Thu Oct 08, 2020 10:37 pm
Don't let him die, don't let him die, don't let him die.
No he needs removing as quickly as possible
Yes but after he loses the election.
A few weeks won't make a difference.
He's got to be there to see the result: to face what he is.
If you want me Steve, just Snapchat me yeah? You know how to Snapchap me doncha Steve? You just...

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