US Election

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El Pollo Diablo
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Re: US Election

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Thu Oct 15, 2020 12:48 pm

Interesting stuff in the Georgian special senate election - the election has two rounds, the second of which is only used if no candidate gets 50% of the vote in the first. No primary is held, all candidates go into the vote together.

It being Georgia, for a long time the two Republican candidates were both way ahead of the Democrat candidates. For some reason, though, in recent weeks the Democrat Raphael Warnock has pulled ahead of the rest, by at least 8 points. However, no candidate will get 50% of the vote so there'll be a run-off election in January, featuring Warnock and one of Kelly Loeffler or Doug Collins.

I'd assumed, however, that the Republican vote would stay together and whichever candidate gets through would defeat Warnock, as the total Republican vote is almost always more than the total Democrat vote in the polls. However, that appears not to be the case. Quinnipiac University released some polls showing head-to-heads for each case, and show Warnock winning both by 8-12 points (note that this set of polls in general are very favourable for the Democrats, so possibly at the higher end of optimistic). Data For Progress also show this result but by four points.

So, it looks like the Democrats have a very good chance now of a majority in the Senate.
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Re: US Election

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Oct 15, 2020 1:56 pm

dyqik wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 11:54 am
EACLucifer wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:49 am
lpm wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 8:37 am
The 3 states where Trump's fraud and voter suppression will be successful are Florida, Georgia and Texas.

The Republicans successfully eliminated that 2016 ballot measure in Florida. They successfully rigged the Georgia 2018 governor race. They are suppressing the vote pretty well in Texas.

I always move Florida back to red when I look at those maps.
In terms of Florida and Georgia voter suppression, it's worth bearing in mind any model that includes turnout history will take it into account, because it is not new. Florida may have mostly eliminated the ballot measure re: voters with felonies, but last election, voters with felonies were completely excluded, and Georgia's long lines are not new. This sh.t happens every time, but it's good that it's getting attention now.

Hopefully, with so much attention on the election in Georgia - enthusiasm is very high now people realise it is a potential swing state - early voting will make a difference. Queue lengths are already down, but plenty of people are still voting, and nearly a million votes cast already.

As for Texas they've suppressed a couple of aspects of the vote - in person absentee ballot drop off and vote by mail for under 65s - but unprecedented amounts of in person early voting are taking place, and it is possible that the adverse publicity from suppressing a very small portion of the vote will drive a backlash bigger than the suppression effect. Texas is still a longshot, but I really hope it comes through, and if not for the presidential race, I'd love it if Hegar could beat Cornyn.
The Texas measures are still a little looser than previous years.
Texas votes up by three quarters of a million since last time the tracker updated, which was yesterday, I think. Closing in fast on 20% of last cycles total turnout, and a lot of it seems to be in blue areas.

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Re: US Election

Post by Bird on a Fire » Thu Oct 15, 2020 2:10 pm

Sounds like Texas, and possibly the US as a whole, will be heading for a kind of Bolivia situation, where the correlation between voting time and voting intention will provide an opportunity for bad actors to pull shenanigans.
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Re: US Election

Post by lpm » Thu Oct 15, 2020 2:56 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 1:56 pm
dyqik wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 11:54 am
EACLucifer wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:49 am


In terms of Florida and Georgia voter suppression, it's worth bearing in mind any model that includes turnout history will take it into account, because it is not new. Florida may have mostly eliminated the ballot measure re: voters with felonies, but last election, voters with felonies were completely excluded, and Georgia's long lines are not new. This sh.t happens every time, but it's good that it's getting attention now.

Hopefully, with so much attention on the election in Georgia - enthusiasm is very high now people realise it is a potential swing state - early voting will make a difference. Queue lengths are already down, but plenty of people are still voting, and nearly a million votes cast already.

As for Texas they've suppressed a couple of aspects of the vote - in person absentee ballot drop off and vote by mail for under 65s - but unprecedented amounts of in person early voting are taking place, and it is possible that the adverse publicity from suppressing a very small portion of the vote will drive a backlash bigger than the suppression effect. Texas is still a longshot, but I really hope it comes through, and if not for the presidential race, I'd love it if Hegar could beat Cornyn.
The Texas measures are still a little looser than previous years.
Texas votes up by three quarters of a million since last time the tracker updated, which was yesterday, I think. Closing in fast on 20% of last cycles total turnout, and a lot of it seems to be in blue areas.
In 2016 there was a lot of excitement about good early voting figures for Clinton. I know, because I was the one getting excited.

I don't trust any analysis of this. How can you determine if it's just cannibalising 3 Nov voting or not? Seems impossible to know. Plus that global pandemic thing we're hearing about on the news will throw everything off.

I think I prefer quality opinion polls to actual early votes.
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Re: US Election

Post by dyqik » Thu Oct 15, 2020 2:58 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 2:10 pm
Sounds like Texas, and possibly the US as a whole, will be heading for a kind of Bolivia situation, where the correlation between voting time and voting intention will provide an opportunity for bad actors to pull shenanigans.
The problem the GOP has is that most of the things they are pulling are going to hurt the late vote, which is likely in their favor. CoVID is increasing rapidly across the mid-West, when they need it to decrease because it's their failure. Fake "Ballot Security Forces" causing delays at the polls hurts the election day in-person vote, rather than the sparser early voting locations, particularly because these efforts aren't in place yet. Mail delays and deadlines hurt the late mail-in vote, while Democrat supporters are returning ballots as early as possible.
Last edited by dyqik on Thu Oct 15, 2020 3:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: US Election

Post by dyqik » Thu Oct 15, 2020 3:01 pm

lpm wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 2:56 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 1:56 pm
dyqik wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 11:54 am

The Texas measures are still a little looser than previous years.
Texas votes up by three quarters of a million since last time the tracker updated, which was yesterday, I think. Closing in fast on 20% of last cycles total turnout, and a lot of it seems to be in blue areas.
In 2016 there was a lot of excitement about good early voting figures for Clinton. I know, because I was the one getting excited.

I don't trust any analysis of this. How can you determine if it's just cannibalising 3 Nov voting or not? Seems impossible to know. Plus that global pandemic thing we're hearing about on the news will throw everything off.

I think I prefer quality opinion polls to actual early votes.
We often know how many early votes are from people who voted in 2016, and how they are registered, as well as some demographic info. So there's some analysis that can be done on the new voter numbers that's independent of cannibalization of the election day vote.

There's also the risk factor with the Election Day vote, as I mentioned in my previous post. Generally, you want the votes to have already been made when you have high enthusiasm for your side and with possible barriers and changes in sentiment ahead.

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Re: US Election

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Thu Oct 15, 2020 3:23 pm

dyqik wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 2:58 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 2:10 pm
Sounds like Texas, and possibly the US as a whole, will be heading for a kind of Bolivia situation, where the correlation between voting time and voting intention will provide an opportunity for bad actors to pull shenanigans.
The problem the GOP has is that most of the things they are pulling are going to hurt the late vote, which is likely in their favor. CoVID is increasing rapidly across the mid-West, when they need it to decrease because it's their failure. Fake "Ballot Security Forces" causing delays at the polls hurts the election day in-person vote, rather than the sparser early voting locations, particularly because these efforts aren't in place yet. Mail delays and deadlines hurt the late mail-in vote, while Democrat supporters are returning ballots as early as possible.
Yeah, this is what I was wondering - if the Repugnants are trying to provide as few polling stations as possible, isn't that mainly a problem for everyone who tries to vote on the most votey day (Nov 3rd)? i.e. Repugnants
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Re: US Election

Post by monkey » Thu Oct 15, 2020 3:34 pm

El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 3:23 pm
dyqik wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 2:58 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 2:10 pm
Sounds like Texas, and possibly the US as a whole, will be heading for a kind of Bolivia situation, where the correlation between voting time and voting intention will provide an opportunity for bad actors to pull shenanigans.
The problem the GOP has is that most of the things they are pulling are going to hurt the late vote, which is likely in their favor. CoVID is increasing rapidly across the mid-West, when they need it to decrease because it's their failure. Fake "Ballot Security Forces" causing delays at the polls hurts the election day in-person vote, rather than the sparser early voting locations, particularly because these efforts aren't in place yet. Mail delays and deadlines hurt the late mail-in vote, while Democrat supporters are returning ballots as early as possible.
Yeah, this is what I was wondering - if the Repugnants are trying to provide as few polling stations as possible, isn't that mainly a problem for everyone who tries to vote on the most votey day (Nov 3rd)? i.e. Repugnants
They're selective about where it ends up being hard to vote. They try to restrict geographically rather than temporally. And it's not like the restrictions aren't effecting the early voting either: 12 hour waits in Georgia in some places where it just so happens black people live.
Last edited by monkey on Thu Oct 15, 2020 3:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: US Election

Post by monkey » Thu Oct 15, 2020 3:34 pm

Woops, pressed quote instead of edit.

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Re: US Election

Post by dyqik » Thu Oct 15, 2020 4:03 pm

monkey wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 3:34 pm
El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 3:23 pm
dyqik wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 2:58 pm


The problem the GOP has is that most of the things they are pulling are going to hurt the late vote, which is likely in their favor. CoVID is increasing rapidly across the mid-West, when they need it to decrease because it's their failure. Fake "Ballot Security Forces" causing delays at the polls hurts the election day in-person vote, rather than the sparser early voting locations, particularly because these efforts aren't in place yet. Mail delays and deadlines hurt the late mail-in vote, while Democrat supporters are returning ballots as early as possible.
Yeah, this is what I was wondering - if the Repugnants are trying to provide as few polling stations as possible, isn't that mainly a problem for everyone who tries to vote on the most votey day (Nov 3rd)? i.e. Repugnants
They're selective about where it ends up being hard to vote. They try to restrict geographically rather than temporally. And it's not like the restrictions aren't effecting the early voting either: 12 hour waits in Georgia in some places where it just so happens black people live.
That's largely part of the background though already. The interesting thing will be if there's a time sensitive component that they've just missed (e.g. because they didn't imagine CoVID would spike again in importance just before the election) and which counteracts the general background of geographical suppression.

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Re: US Election

Post by lpm » Thu Oct 15, 2020 4:21 pm

I just get wound up by the idiots who go "look at this wonderful enthusiasm, black voters standing in line for 17 days to vote, isn't it great" instead of admiring the skill of the Republicans in suppressing votes.

Say what you like about Republicans, they really get things done.

I mean, they really get things not done. The greatest grandmasters of obstruction the world has ever seen.
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Re: US Election

Post by monkey » Thu Oct 15, 2020 4:25 pm

Obstruction isn't doing things, it's the opposite. And it's easier than doing things.

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Re: US Election

Post by Vertigowooyay » Thu Oct 15, 2020 5:47 pm

Trump in Des Moines complaining to Iowans that the media covered the Iowa floods instead of his Nobel Prize nomination really is the definition of “Hey folks, I truly don’t give a f.ck about you”.
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Re: US Election

Post by jimbob » Thu Oct 15, 2020 6:02 pm

lpm wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 4:21 pm
I just get wound up by the idiots who go "look at this wonderful enthusiasm, black voters standing in line for 17 days to vote, isn't it great" instead of admiring the skill of the Republicans in suppressing votes.

Say what you like about Republicans, they really get things done.

I mean, they really get things not done. The greatest grandmasters of obstruction the world has ever seen.
I'm less worried about that than the quote which I think was attributed to Stalin.

"It's not who votes that counts, but who counts the votes"

With the use of insecure voting machines, it's quite possible that some will be skewed. A 5% skew is probably enough in many places
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: US Election

Post by lpm » Thu Oct 15, 2020 6:18 pm

Vertigowooyay wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 5:47 pm
Trump in Des Moines complaining to Iowans that the media covered the Iowa floods instead of his Nobel Prize nomination really is the definition of “Hey folks, I truly don’t give a f.ck about you”.
Iowa floods? There weren't any Iowa floods. Well, there was a bit, in March, there always is. But 2020 was far lower than average for flooding. 2019 was a terrible year.

There was the derecho instead.

A derecho is an inland storm with hurricane force winds (straight, not a rotating system). It swept through Iowa and into Illinois. Remarkably it didn't kill anyone, just caused big property damage.

I've never seen Trump mention the derecho. Not even a presidential statement written by someone else. But it was big in Iowa and matters to them. Theresa "scrappy farm kid" Greenfield is always going on about it.

I think rural Iowa is going to know if they were flooded or derecho'd this year.
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Re: US Election

Post by bolo » Thu Oct 15, 2020 6:22 pm

Little waster wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:47 am
538s current probabilities for a Democrat clean sweep:-

President: 87%
Senate: 74%
House: 96%

Or cumulatively 61%.
It looks like you got that 61% by multiplying. The three probabilities are highly correlated. My guess is that a Dem sweep is actually somewhere in the low 70s, i.e. almost a lock if they can win the Senate.

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Re: US Election

Post by Grumble » Thu Oct 15, 2020 6:29 pm

Vertigowooyay wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 5:47 pm
Trump in Des Moines complaining to Iowans that the media covered the Iowa floods instead of his Nobel Prize nomination really is the definition of “Hey folks, I truly don’t give a f.ck about you”.
Maybe, but maybe it’s a joke? He’s quite good at making those, it’s why people like going to his rallies.
I know this is vitriol, no solution, spleen venting, but I feel better having screamed, don’t you?

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Re: US Election

Post by Vertigowooyay » Thu Oct 15, 2020 6:42 pm

lpm wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 6:18 pm
Vertigowooyay wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 5:47 pm
Trump in Des Moines complaining to Iowans that the media covered the Iowa floods instead of his Nobel Prize nomination really is the definition of “Hey folks, I truly don’t give a f.ck about you”.
Iowa floods? There weren't any Iowa floods. Well, there was a bit, in March, there always is. But 2020 was far lower than average for flooding. 2019 was a terrible year.

There was the derecho instead.

A derecho is an inland storm with hurricane force winds (straight, not a rotating system). It swept through Iowa and into Illinois. Remarkably it didn't kill anyone, just caused big property damage.

I've never seen Trump mention the derecho. Not even a presidential statement written by someone else. But it was big in Iowa and matters to them. Theresa "scrappy farm kid" Greenfield is always going on about it.

I think rural Iowa is going to know if they were flooded or derecho'd this year.
I think my initial point still stands.
“I was nominated for three Nobel Peace Prizes, different subjects. … I told our first lady, ‘Darling, we’re going to have the greatest publicity we’ve ever head tonight. I got nominated for the Noble Prize. Do you know what that is, darling? Let’s go home.’ So I leave for the first time in a long time early. I get home, I turn home the television and they talked about your floods in Iowa. How is Iowa doing? The crops. How is this happening? How are they doing in Florida? Three or four stories, one after another. Where is my Nobel Peace Prize?! They don’t talk about it. I said, ‘You know, darling. This news is a little tough to crack.'”
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Re: US Election

Post by AMS » Thu Oct 15, 2020 10:04 pm

bolo wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 6:22 pm
Little waster wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:47 am
538s current probabilities for a Democrat clean sweep:-

President: 87%
Senate: 74%
House: 96%

Or cumulatively 61%.
It looks like you got that 61% by multiplying. The three probabilities are highly correlated. My guess is that a Dem sweep is actually somewhere in the low 70s, i.e. almost a lock if they can win the Senate.
I was thinking that. The probability of getting all three is pretty much the probability of getting the Senate.

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Re: US Election

Post by lpm » Fri Oct 16, 2020 2:05 pm

lpm wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 12:57 pm
538 has just refreshed their model.

Up to +10.2, highest ever.
Looks like the Biden surge has flattened off at +10.5

A week staying solid at >10 is good, but even better will be another two weeks at >10.
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Re: US Election

Post by dyqik » Fri Oct 16, 2020 2:10 pm

lpm wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 2:05 pm
lpm wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 12:57 pm
538 has just refreshed their model.

Up to +10.2, highest ever.
Looks like the Biden surge has flattened off at +10.5

A week staying solid at >10 is good, but even better will be another two weeks at >10.
Last night _might_ be good for half a point or so.

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Re: US Election

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Oct 16, 2020 2:35 pm

lpm wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 2:05 pm
lpm wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 12:57 pm
538 has just refreshed their model.

Up to +10.2, highest ever.
Looks like the Biden surge has flattened off at +10.5

A week staying solid at >10 is good, but even better will be another two weeks at >10.
This is where the early voting is key, it's not about whether or not it "cannibalises" election day turnout, the entire shape of this election is different, there's discussion that it will be the first election with more than half the vote before election day. Of course that means some people voting early instead of in person on the day who were always going to vote.

There's two main effects worth mentioning with early voting.

The first is that it is inherently robust. In Georgia, on day 1, voting machines ran slow. Whether deliberate, carelessness by people who knew they would benefit from a mishap if it did happen, or a genuine accident, it wasn't something that could easily be excused long term, and so, it was fixed. Something like 128000 voted on day 1, with 12 hour queues. Can't remember if it was yesterday or the day before, but queues were down to mostly under an hour, and 150000 voted. Not all kinds of voter suppression are easy to maintain over several weeks. For example, sending thugs to harass people, which is a very legitimate concern, is much harder to pull off when there's time to react.

Secondly, the danger right now is late swing. Trump, even allowing for the polling errors last time, wasn't ahead in enough states for most of the race. Just a few times, he managed to get ahead, but one of them, thanks to shenanigans, was election day. Late swing is less of an issue with extensive early voting, as a lot of votes will be in already if it happens, and if some nonsense puts people off from voting at all, it will either be too late to affect many of the votes, or too early to escape the narrative swinging back before the polls close.

The level of early voting is more than an order of magnitude higher than 2016, and that makes the kind of dubious win Trump got then more difficult. Not impossible, but more difficult.

And once again when it comes to voter suppression in Texas, Georgia and Florida, any model based on previous results will already incorporate the effect of that, and I'm not so far seeing evidence that it is more of an issue than it was last time. Again, this does not mean Biden will necessarily win them*, nor that there is not a risk of greater suppression than there has been.


*He's still behind in the polls in Texas anyway

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Re: US Election

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Oct 16, 2020 2:42 pm

dyqik wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 2:10 pm
lpm wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 2:05 pm
lpm wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 12:57 pm
538 has just refreshed their model.

Up to +10.2, highest ever.
Looks like the Biden surge has flattened off at +10.5

A week staying solid at >10 is good, but even better will be another two weeks at >10.
Last night _might_ be good for half a point or so.
It doesn't seem likely to help Trump, at least. It's worth remembering it took a day or so for people to realise the first debate wasn't a messy draw but a Biden win, and the duelling town halls we had feel like a Biden win of similar character. Biden spent an hour and a half sensibly, calmly discussing policy on camera, then continued discussing it with those present who hadn't managed to ask a question even after the broadcast ended for another half hour or so, while Trump stuck to his guns with a partial endorsement of Qanon, and refusal to disavow his retweets amplifying the ludicrous conspiracy theories around Seal Team Six and Usama Bin Laden; a lot of people won't have watched either, but will be seeing snippets in the news or on social media, and Trump's highlights are bad for him, while Biden's are kind of...normal. Good, even, if the thing that is reported is him staying on to talk to more voters after the broadcast.

Another way of looking at it is this; the side that won doesn't usually whine about the referee. Trump's supporters - as well as comparing Biden to Mr. Rogers as if that were a bad thing - are spending a lot of their time whining about Savannah Guthrie for fact checking Trump, just as they did with Chris Wallace after the first debate.

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Re: US Election

Post by dyqik » Fri Oct 16, 2020 3:38 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 2:42 pm
dyqik wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 2:10 pm
lpm wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 2:05 pm

Looks like the Biden surge has flattened off at +10.5

A week staying solid at >10 is good, but even better will be another two weeks at >10.
Last night _might_ be good for half a point or so.
It doesn't seem likely to help Trump, at least. It's worth remembering it took a day or so for people to realise the first debate wasn't a messy draw but a Biden win, and the duelling town halls we had feel like a Biden win of similar character. Biden spent an hour and a half sensibly, calmly discussing policy on camera, then continued discussing it with those present who hadn't managed to ask a question even after the broadcast ended for another half hour or so, while Trump stuck to his guns with a partial endorsement of Qanon, and refusal to disavow his retweets amplifying the ludicrous conspiracy theories around Seal Team Six and Usama Bin Laden; a lot of people won't have watched either, but will be seeing snippets in the news or on social media, and Trump's highlights are bad for him, while Biden's are kind of...normal. Good, even, if the thing that is reported is him staying on to talk to more voters after the broadcast.

Another way of looking at it is this; the side that won doesn't usually whine about the referee. Trump's supporters - as well as comparing Biden to Mr. Rogers as if that were a bad thing - are spending a lot of their time whining about Savannah Guthrie for fact checking Trump, just as they did with Chris Wallace after the first debate.
The instant reaction is always media group-think from those desperate to talk about the horse race. Over the next day or so we'll get the polls from before the town halls, and then next week we'll get the polls with voters who've had a chance to digest the town halls and decide. It takes time for voters to change their mind, then time to poll them, then time to release the results.

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Re: US Election

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Oct 16, 2020 3:49 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 4:30 am
EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Oct 07, 2020 8:41 pm
FlammableFlower wrote:
Wed Oct 07, 2020 7:55 pm
So various Trump supporters are touting the "unredacted Russia report" which will show that Obama and Hilary deliberately concocted the investigation into Donald, which obviously showed him to be a paragon of virtue. This thereby shows that it's your patriotic duty to vote for Trump/Pence and definitely not Biden/Harris.
Last time he said he'd declassify them, his own Justice Department argued in court that his tweets were speculation and politics, not fact.
Despite that ruling, Buzzfeed are making a play for the unredacted Mueller Report.

Image
And just now a judge ruled that government attorneys can't just presume the president's tweets are meaningless - the case continues with the judge telling government counsel they need to find out Trump's intent and submit it to the court!

The case is continuing until next week, and I think they need to do that by next week, too. Could be interesting if Trump sticks to his guns.
Judge Walton wrote:I think when a president makes an unambiguous statement that he was declassifying information I don't think anything more is required. He clearly has indicated intent.

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