That's good news for him, isn't it? It would be really bad for him to be short of money at a point Biden's running beautifully produced national minute long adverts narrated by Sam Elliot during major sporting events
US Election
- EACLucifer
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Re: US Election
- El Pollo Diablo
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Re: US Election
Biden is now five points in front in Iowa, according to Monmouth University.
Lol.
Lol.
If truth is many-sided, mendacity is many-tongued
- El Pollo Diablo
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Re: US Election
538 have got a "what if" style map thing going on:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/tr ... ction-map/
If Biden wins Iowa, Trump has a less than 1% chance of winning the election.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/tr ... ction-map/
If Biden wins Iowa, Trump has a less than 1% chance of winning the election.
If truth is many-sided, mendacity is many-tongued
- EACLucifer
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Re: US Election
Fivethirtyeight has put up a model where one can see what is predicted for a variety of custom scenarios
One take home is that while everyone is worrying about a long, protracted count in Pennsylvania - and it is a very real worry - there are some states where if Biden picks them up on the night, Trump's chances are very low. His current chance, according to the model, is 12%.
If Biden picks up Florida, Georgia, Ohio or Texas, Trump's chances drop to <1%. Biden's 538 poll average margin - not predicted vote - is +3.5, +0.8, -0.2 and -1.2 percentage points respectively.
If Biden picks up North Carolina, Trump's chances drop to 1%. Biden's lead there is 3.1
If Biden picks up Arizona, Trump's chances drop to 2%. Biden's lead there is 3.7
If Biden picks up Nebraska-2, Trump's chances drop to 3%. Biden's lead there is 7.2
Biden has a route to victory without any of the above, although a clean sweep of them for Trump would make him the favourite.
For context, if Biden bags New Hampshire, Trump's chances nearly halve, ending up at 7%. Biden's lead there is 11.6.
In case one wants stuff to look at on election night, because we aren't really going to know much about Pennsylvania until they start counting postal votes.
ETA: Add what El Pollo Diablo said about Iowa to the mix.
One take home is that while everyone is worrying about a long, protracted count in Pennsylvania - and it is a very real worry - there are some states where if Biden picks them up on the night, Trump's chances are very low. His current chance, according to the model, is 12%.
If Biden picks up Florida, Georgia, Ohio or Texas, Trump's chances drop to <1%. Biden's 538 poll average margin - not predicted vote - is +3.5, +0.8, -0.2 and -1.2 percentage points respectively.
If Biden picks up North Carolina, Trump's chances drop to 1%. Biden's lead there is 3.1
If Biden picks up Arizona, Trump's chances drop to 2%. Biden's lead there is 3.7
If Biden picks up Nebraska-2, Trump's chances drop to 3%. Biden's lead there is 7.2
Biden has a route to victory without any of the above, although a clean sweep of them for Trump would make him the favourite.
For context, if Biden bags New Hampshire, Trump's chances nearly halve, ending up at 7%. Biden's lead there is 11.6.
In case one wants stuff to look at on election night, because we aren't really going to know much about Pennsylvania until they start counting postal votes.
ETA: Add what El Pollo Diablo said about Iowa to the mix.
- EACLucifer
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Re: US Election
This is particularly interesting given that a third of the vote or so has come in in Iowa already, and quite recently, ie during the survey period for polls publishing now.El Pollo Diablo wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:11 pmBiden is now five points in front in Iowa, according to Monmouth University.
Lol.
Re: US Election
It's snowed already in Iowa. I'm not saying that like it means something, just that it's a hellava weird place.
There's a pretty high chance, around 9%, that it will be decided by the single state of Pennsylvania, and the judges will hand it to Trump and break the Republic.
There's a pretty high chance, around 9%, that it will be decided by the single state of Pennsylvania, and the judges will hand it to Trump and break the Republic.
Awarded gold star 4 November 2021
Re: US Election
There's also a fun effect here where the likely voter screen is shifting things to the Democrats rather than to the Republicans like it normally does. This is probably because so many Democrats have already voted, and so are certain voters. So the "high turnout" model only occurs if loads of Republicans turnout between now and election day.EACLucifer wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:38 pmThis is particularly interesting given that a third of the vote or so has come in in Iowa already, and quite recently, ie during the survey period for polls publishing now.El Pollo Diablo wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:11 pmBiden is now five points in front in Iowa, according to Monmouth University.
Lol.
Re: US Election
I wonder what effect Borat is going to have on the race?
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- Dorkwood
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Re: US Election
2020, full of things you didn't expect hear...
Re: US Election
And didn't want to see.
- EACLucifer
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Re: US Election
One still was bad enough.
A couple of things do stand out as to how bad it is;
Firstly, it's a minimum of despicable, diabolical and indefensible
Secondly, how old was the actress in question? Was this criminal, or merely disgusting?
Likewise when was the first time her supposed age was mentioned? Was it just at the end of the scene, or earlier?
It kinda feels possibly relevant regaring Giuliani the Ratfucker's conduct towards young women that he he suddenly acquired a 20yo spokeswoman earlier this year and nobody seems to know how she ended up as his spokeswoman.
- EACLucifer
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Re: US Election
And up three with the NYT/Siena Upshot, suggesting it perhaps isn't an outlier.dyqik wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:47 pmThere's also a fun effect here where the likely voter screen is shifting things to the Democrats rather than to the Republicans like it normally does. This is probably because so many Democrats have already voted, and so are certain voters. So the "high turnout" model only occurs if loads of Republicans turnout between now and election day.EACLucifer wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:38 pmThis is particularly interesting given that a third of the vote or so has come in in Iowa already, and quite recently, ie during the survey period for polls publishing now.El Pollo Diablo wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:11 pmBiden is now five points in front in Iowa, according to Monmouth University.
Lol.
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Re: US Election
From what I've read the actor in question is 24 made up to look much younger. As such it just fits the merely disgusting... which still isn't great.EACLucifer wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:19 pmOne still was bad enough.
A couple of things do stand out as to how bad it is;
Firstly, it's a minimum of despicable, diabolical and indefensible
Secondly, how old was the actress in question? Was this criminal, or merely disgusting?
Likewise when was the first time her supposed age was mentioned? Was it just at the end of the scene, or earlier?
It kinda feels possibly relevant regaring Giuliani the Ratfucker's conduct towards young women that he he suddenly acquired a 20yo spokeswoman earlier this year and nobody seems to know how she ended up as his spokeswoman.
- EACLucifer
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Re: US Election
Oh and they tried to photo-op and actual journalist with an enormous book of supposed healthcare achievements...which appears to be entirely blank on the inside.
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Re: US Election
More China fun for Trump:
Major Republican Party and Trump fundraiser Elliott Broidy pleaded guilty Tuesday to acting as an unregistered foreign agent, admitting to accepting millions of dollars to secretly lobby the Trump administration for Malaysian and Chinese interests.
Re: US Election
Although the set up for this was that it was a scheme to offer a bribe to the Trump administration on behalf of the Kazakh government. Which brings a different kind of criminality into it.FlammableFlower wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:28 pmFrom what I've read the actor in question is 24 made up to look much younger. As such it just fits the merely disgusting... which still isn't great.EACLucifer wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:19 pmOne still was bad enough.
A couple of things do stand out as to how bad it is;
Firstly, it's a minimum of despicable, diabolical and indefensible
Secondly, how old was the actress in question? Was this criminal, or merely disgusting?
Likewise when was the first time her supposed age was mentioned? Was it just at the end of the scene, or earlier?
It kinda feels possibly relevant regaring Giuliani the Ratfucker's conduct towards young women that he he suddenly acquired a 20yo spokeswoman earlier this year and nobody seems to know how she ended up as his spokeswoman.
- EACLucifer
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Re: US Election
Indeed it does.dyqik wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:36 pmAlthough the set up for this was that it was a scheme to offer a bribe to the Trump administration on behalf of the Kazakh government. Which brings a different kind of criminality into it.FlammableFlower wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:28 pmFrom what I've read the actor in question is 24 made up to look much younger. As such it just fits the merely disgusting... which still isn't great.EACLucifer wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:19 pm
One still was bad enough.
A couple of things do stand out as to how bad it is;
Firstly, it's a minimum of despicable, diabolical and indefensible
Secondly, how old was the actress in question? Was this criminal, or merely disgusting?
Likewise when was the first time her supposed age was mentioned? Was it just at the end of the scene, or earlier?
It kinda feels possibly relevant regaring Giuliani the Ratfucker's conduct towards young women that he he suddenly acquired a 20yo spokeswoman earlier this year and nobody seems to know how she ended up as his spokeswoman.
And we don't yet know how old he thought she was - Sacha Baron-Cohen claims she's fifteen at the end of the scene, but it's possible it might have been mentioned earlier.
The photoshoppers are already having fun. Decorum demands this one go behind a spoiler.
Spoiler:
Re: US Election
All the way down to 9.9% now.
where once I used to scintillate
now I sin till ten past three
now I sin till ten past three
- Brightonian
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Re: US Election
Apparently he was just tucking in his shirt. Of course, one has to lie down to do that.EACLucifer wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:45 pmIndeed it does.dyqik wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:36 pmAlthough the set up for this was that it was a scheme to offer a bribe to the Trump administration on behalf of the Kazakh government. Which brings a different kind of criminality into it.FlammableFlower wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:28 pm
From what I've read the actor in question is 24 made up to look much younger. As such it just fits the merely disgusting... which still isn't great.
And we don't yet know how old he thought she was - Sacha Baron-Cohen claims she's fifteen at the end of the scene, but it's possible it might have been mentioned earlier.
The photoshoppers are already having fun. Decorum demands this one go behind a spoiler.
Spoiler:
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Re: US Election
Watching Obama's speech in Philadelphia - hell's teeth, it shows you what's been missing from the US presidency.
- Little waster
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Re: US Election
Rose-tinted spectacles I think.FlammableFlower wrote: ↑Thu Oct 22, 2020 1:57 pmWatching Obama's speech in Philadelphia - hell's teeth, it shows you what's been missing from the US presidency.
Who can forget the outrage that was khakigate (spoilered for those of a nervous disposition).
Spoiler:
Or that time he carried a cup of coffee.
Impeach this monster!!!
Oh the humanity!
This place is not a place of honor, no highly esteemed deed is commemorated here, nothing valued is here.
What is here was dangerous and repulsive to us.
This place is best shunned and left uninhabited.
What is here was dangerous and repulsive to us.
This place is best shunned and left uninhabited.
- Bird on a Fire
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Re: US Election
I liked it when he became the first Nobel Prize winner to drone strike another Nobel Prize winner (Doctors Without Borders).
Stepping up deportations of law-abiding parents was very cool as well.
And who can forget his enormous success in closing down the illegal torture prison the US operates in Cuba?
Stepping up deportations of law-abiding parents was very cool as well.
And who can forget his enormous success in closing down the illegal torture prison the US operates in Cuba?
We have the right to a clean, healthy, sustainable environment.
- El Pollo Diablo
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Re: US Election
oooh, interesting - Harrison two points in front in South Carolina according to one poll
If truth is many-sided, mendacity is many-tongued
- EACLucifer
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Re: US Election
I think we need to be cautious about inferring too much from a single still released by a very unethical man trying to drum up publicity, to be fair. If anyone deserves it, it's Rudy the Ratfucker, but it doesn't mean we can trust SBC.Brightonian wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 10:38 pmApparently he was just tucking in his shirt. Of course, one has to lie down to do that.EACLucifer wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:45 pmIndeed it does.
And we don't yet know how old he thought she was - Sacha Baron-Cohen claims she's fifteen at the end of the scene, but it's possible it might have been mentioned earlier.
The photoshoppers are already having fun. Decorum demands this one go behind a spoiler.
Spoiler:
- El Pollo Diablo
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Re: US Election
Has something happened in Iowa? Greenfield is suddenly trailing.
If truth is many-sided, mendacity is many-tongued