US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
- Bird on a Fire
- Princess POW
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US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
So, I've just visited a news website and learned that they're having a election in the USA sometime this week.
In order to enter into the fun-and-games spirit, I thought it would be nice to run a sweepstake. How many Electoral College votes do you think each candidate will get?
Rules:
- You must state a number (preferably a real, positive integer) for at least one candidate. (Unless otherwise specified, it will be assumed that your prediction for the other candidate is the number necessary to add to a total of 538).
- One guess per member. Instances of fraud will be dealt with severely (unless you're supporting Trump).
- The 'official' scores in the case of confusion or controversy will be those votes cast by electors on the first Monday after the second Wednesday of December.
Guidelines
If you want to make a guess based on states rather than EC votes per se, online tools such as https://www.270towin.com/ will allow conversion of your guess into the format required by this sweepstake.
Showing your working is encouraged, but not compulsory.
The winner will be the poster whose guess is closest for each candidate. In the case of a tie, the winner will be adjudicated by SCROTUS (Scrutineers of the United States: bolo, dyqik, monkey, and six conservatives to be selected and confirmed by Mitch McConnell).
Prizes
Congruent with the village fête aesthetic I'm aiming for, I'm hoping that participants will also offer prizes when they post their guesses. I will draw a scene from the election selected by the winner with pen-and-ink, and colour it with pencils.
In order to enter into the fun-and-games spirit, I thought it would be nice to run a sweepstake. How many Electoral College votes do you think each candidate will get?
Rules:
- You must state a number (preferably a real, positive integer) for at least one candidate. (Unless otherwise specified, it will be assumed that your prediction for the other candidate is the number necessary to add to a total of 538).
- One guess per member. Instances of fraud will be dealt with severely (unless you're supporting Trump).
- The 'official' scores in the case of confusion or controversy will be those votes cast by electors on the first Monday after the second Wednesday of December.
Guidelines
If you want to make a guess based on states rather than EC votes per se, online tools such as https://www.270towin.com/ will allow conversion of your guess into the format required by this sweepstake.
Showing your working is encouraged, but not compulsory.
The winner will be the poster whose guess is closest for each candidate. In the case of a tie, the winner will be adjudicated by SCROTUS (Scrutineers of the United States: bolo, dyqik, monkey, and six conservatives to be selected and confirmed by Mitch McConnell).
Prizes
Congruent with the village fête aesthetic I'm aiming for, I'm hoping that participants will also offer prizes when they post their guesses. I will draw a scene from the election selected by the winner with pen-and-ink, and colour it with pencils.
We have the right to a clean, healthy, sustainable environment.
- Bird on a Fire
- Princess POW
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
My guess is Biden 269 - Trump 269.
Reasoning:
1) Consolation betting - though I can't bring myself to bet on a Trump victory. I'm hopeful that the polling will be roughly accurate (partly because I like what it says, but also because there's obviously advantages to being able to poll people accurately), or even that they'll underestimate Biden's chances by overcorrecting perceived issues from 2016. But, 2020 could f.ck us yet in all sorts of peculiar ways, and it could be closer than any of us want.
2) 69, dudes!
Reasoning:
1) Consolation betting - though I can't bring myself to bet on a Trump victory. I'm hopeful that the polling will be roughly accurate (partly because I like what it says, but also because there's obviously advantages to being able to poll people accurately), or even that they'll underestimate Biden's chances by overcorrecting perceived issues from 2016. But, 2020 could f.ck us yet in all sorts of peculiar ways, and it could be closer than any of us want.
2) 69, dudes!
We have the right to a clean, healthy, sustainable environment.
Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
395 Biden, based on counting everything that 538 currently colors even slightly blue, plus Texas because I have a lot of friends there and it would make them very happy, but not Ohio because I don't want to tempt fate more than typing 395 already did.
My prize for the winner: a PDF copy of the only bill ever introduced in the U.S. Congress that includes the word "c.nt".
My prize for the winner: a PDF copy of the only bill ever introduced in the U.S. Congress that includes the word "c.nt".
- EACLucifer
- Stummy Beige
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
Biden/Harris 351 - Clinton states + PA, WI, MI, GA, AZ, FL, NC, ME2, NE2.
There's a bunch of states where almost any combination is plausible, though - FL, TX, GA, IA, OH, ME2, and while NZ and AZ lean Biden, they could certainly go the other way. The margins between 290 and 413 for Biden are quite small.
There's a bunch of states where almost any combination is plausible, though - FL, TX, GA, IA, OH, ME2, and while NZ and AZ lean Biden, they could certainly go the other way. The margins between 290 and 413 for Biden are quite small.
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- Fuzzable
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
Biden 410 based on a poor attempt to judge the peak on some plot from 538 (it’s a pretty crap plot tbh) and one I may even be misunderstanding.
Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
413-125. Biden gets the lot.
Awarded gold star 4 November 2021
Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
There's no likely 410 so you've lost already. You'd need Biden to lose 3 in Delaware or somewhere like that. Or lose Iowa's 6 but win 3 in Montana or Alaska.Bewildered wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:04 amBiden 410 based on a poor attempt to judge the peak on some plot from 538 (it’s a pretty crap plot tbh) and one I may even be misunderstanding.
You obviously haven't spent the last few months playing with interactive maps. Weirdo.
Awarded gold star 4 November 2021
- tenchboy
- After Pie
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
A wild guess but something to do with ropes and splicing or the stacking of barrels?bolo wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:18 am395 Biden, based on counting everything that 538 currently colors even slightly blue, plus Texas because I have a lot of friends there and it would make them very happy, but not Ohio because I don't want to tempt fate more than typing 395 already did.
My prize for the winner: a PDF copy of the only bill ever introduced in the U.S. Congress that includes the word "c.nt".
If you want me Steve, just Snapchat me yeah? You know how to Snapchap me doncha Steve? You just...
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- Snowbonk
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
I fitted a cubic model to the data and it turns out Biden is going to get -57 votes.
- El Pollo Diablo
- Stummy Beige
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
All the good guesses have gone. I'm going to guess 389 - Biden will win Texas, Florida and Georgia but miss out on Ohio and Iowa.
My prize: a dutch oven.
My prize: a dutch oven.
If truth is many-sided, mendacity is many-tongued
Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
Trump 538.
That's what the incumbent President, 40% of the population, 80% of the gun-owning population, and most of the Supreme Court will believe anyway, so what anyone else says is irrelevant.
My prize: a pack of cyanide pills.
That's what the incumbent President, 40% of the population, 80% of the gun-owning population, and most of the Supreme Court will believe anyway, so what anyone else says is irrelevant.
My prize: a pack of cyanide pills.
Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
Trump 858 because let’s face it he’s going to make Liberian elections look like models of democratic rigour.
And when it starts to slide
Let it go
Leave it behind
Let it go
Leave it behind
- shpalman
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
Using theoretical physics I can predict that the ratio between Trump's vote and Biden's vote will be a dimensionless number of order one, and when the actual result comes out I'll use the data to pretend I predicted it.
My prize will be a large hardon collider and a complete lack of any evidence for supersymmetry.
My prize will be a large hardon collider and a complete lack of any evidence for supersymmetry.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk
Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
375 Biden, with no result in Pennsylvania, leading to their EC votes being lost.
Prize: "care package" of your "favorite" American shippable foodstuffs, such as Hershey's, "cheese" in a squeeze bottle, Fluff™, powdered Ranch dressing, and maybe some nice things as well.
If a Brit wins, you'll going to need the practice on American cuisine for the post-Brexit trade deal diet.
Prize: "care package" of your "favorite" American shippable foodstuffs, such as Hershey's, "cheese" in a squeeze bottle, Fluff™, powdered Ranch dressing, and maybe some nice things as well.
If a Brit wins, you'll going to need the practice on American cuisine for the post-Brexit trade deal diet.
- EACLucifer
- Stummy Beige
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
Dammit, forgot to include a prize. Belatedly, I will/won't crush you beneath the wheels of The Apocalypse Machine according to preference.
Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
Do you mean the cooking vessel here?
- El Pollo Diablo
- Stummy Beige
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
Good question.
If truth is many-sided, mendacity is many-tongued
Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
Biden 274, Trump 264. Because I think it's going to be close and 538 tells me its a possible number.
For a prize I will get the winner a pint, but because they are hard to put in the post it will have to drunk by proxy, i.e. by me.
For a prize I will get the winner a pint, but because they are hard to put in the post it will have to drunk by proxy, i.e. by me.
- Bird on a Fire
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
Exciting stuff! A good spread of guesses, and some faaaaaaabulous prizes!
Roll up roll up and place your guesses, don't be shy now.
Roll up roll up and place your guesses, don't be shy now.
We have the right to a clean, healthy, sustainable environment.
- Bird on a Fire
- Princess POW
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
Not necessarily - Bewildered only has to be closer than anybody else.lpm wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:11 amThere's no likely 410 so you've lost already. You'd need Biden to lose 3 in Delaware or somewhere like that. Or lose Iowa's 6 but win 3 in Montana or Alaska.Bewildered wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:04 amBiden 410 based on a poor attempt to judge the peak on some plot from 538 (it’s a pretty crap plot tbh) and one I may even be misunderstanding.
You obviously haven't spent the last few months playing with interactive maps. Weirdo.
For instance, Biden could end up on 308 (by taking FL) in which case Bewildered would beat you and go home with all these faaaaabulous prizes.
We have the right to a clean, healthy, sustainable environment.
- tenchboy
- After Pie
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Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
I've never really understood how these things work so I'll go for 3.
My prize is a can of worms.
My prize is a can of worms.
If you want me Steve, just Snapchat me yeah? You know how to Snapchap me doncha Steve? You just...
Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
Nope. And as a bonus it also includes the word "a..hole" and the phrase "mother f.cker".tenchboy wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:35 amA wild guess but something to do with ropes and splicing or the stacking of barrels?bolo wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:18 am395 Biden, based on counting everything that 538 currently colors even slightly blue, plus Texas because I have a lot of friends there and it would make them very happy, but not Ohio because I don't want to tempt fate more than typing 395 already did.
My prize for the winner: a PDF copy of the only bill ever introduced in the U.S. Congress that includes the word "c.nt".
Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
Clean sweep by Biden & Harris.
Prize is Charles Messenger's "The Century of Warfare"
Prize is Charles Messenger's "The Century of Warfare"
And remember that if you botch the exit, the carnival of reaction may be coming to a town near you.
Fintan O'Toole
Fintan O'Toole
Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
It's the one some a..eh.le came up with to impose a f.cking swear ban on the twatting broadcasters.bolo wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 5:03 pmNope. And as a bonus it also includes the word "a..hole" and the phrase "mother f.cker".tenchboy wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:35 amA wild guess but something to do with ropes and splicing or the stacking of barrels?bolo wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:18 am395 Biden, based on counting everything that 538 currently colors even slightly blue, plus Texas because I have a lot of friends there and it would make them very happy, but not Ohio because I don't want to tempt fate more than typing 395 already did.
My prize for the winner: a PDF copy of the only bill ever introduced in the U.S. Congress that includes the word "c.nt".
My avatar was a scientific result that was later found to be 'mistaken' - I rarely claim to be 100% correct
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!
Re: US Election Electoral College Sweepstake
I couldn't possibly comment on whether former Congressman Doug Ose is or was an a..eh.le.