US Election

[Lew Dolby]

Carter wasn't re-elected. He was, famously, a one-term president.

[Woodchopper]

Gosh
https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1323454419204231168

Turnout in Texas already exceeds 2016 for except white non-college educated, who are down on 2016.

Not complaining or anything, but how does this person possibly know?

How can he say "Asian votes are at 153%"? You can analyse exit polls from 2016, but a 2020 ballot is a ballot surely? Nobody asks "are you white and non-college" when you mail vote or early vote.

The answer is lots of data:

Derek Ryan, a Republican consultant and data analyst in Texas, said he models voter data by matching every person who has voted so far this year against a list he maintains of all registered voters, which includes such details as age, gender, location, and in which previous elections each person cast a ballot.

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/poli ... 107007002/

So if its possible to get a list of everyone who has voted already, and consultants keep records on every registered voter in the sate, then it would be possible.

Tom Bonier, the tweeter, stated back in September that:

Our ability to analyze the early/mail vote actually begins well before the voting opens in certain states on September 18th. Many states are already reporting on mail balloting requests at the individual level. As of today, at TargetSmart, we have tracked over 6 million requests for mail ballots from voters across the country. We are able to match these requests back to our national voter file, affording us the opportunity to better understand the potential political implications. Our typical analysis considers the partisan distribution of these voters, as well as key demographic indicators (age, race/ethnicity, sex). We also view this dataset in the context of past turnout. It’s not particularly impactful to see a surge in requests among the most likely voters, those who have cast a ballot regularly in previous elections, but when we see spikes among new voters, or those who only vote sporadically, we dig deeper to assess if there is a likely partisan advantage for one side or the other among these surge voters.

Speaking of partisanship, we are often asked how we know who these candidates are supporting. In short, we don’t. The secrecy of the ballots is always protected. We don’t know how someone votes, we just know if they voted. That said, by relying on a combination of partisan voter registration, in those states offering voters that opportunity, and modeled partisanship, we have a good sense of the probability that a voter is supporting one party or another.

https://medium.com/@tombonier/early-and ... 996852367f

[lpm]

Wow, they really don't go in for privacy much. Declaring party allegiance on voter lists is weird enough.

Must be easy enough to shove this data together with Facebook crap and identify all traitors who voted against the President. Round them up into concentration camps and coast to reelection in 2024 for a third term.

[El Pollo Diablo]

Carter wasn't re-elected. He was, famously, a one-term president.

Yes. I'm glad you agree.

[lpm]

I've been doing this game since Bush beat Dukakis in 1988. Truth is it's pretty easy, particularly as everything freezes more and more into the partisan divide.

The outcome was obvious in 1988, 1992, 1996 and 2008. Was fairly clear in 2004 and 2012. Only 2000 and 2016 have been tricky to predict - both cases where the national vote was very narrow and the electoral college was won by the loser of the popular vote.

2020 feels like 2008. A bit better in terms of basic lead (Obama won by +7.3 vs Biden polls at +8.4) although back then there wasn't the same worries about voter suppression, violence, lost ballots etc. The media are motivated to pretend it's a close horse race every time but it's not really horses, it's supertankers. The vast mass just keeps rolling onwards and the only uncertainty comes if the two supertankers are very close and the polling makes the view a bit hazy.

It's all going to play out very nicely tonight.

[EACLucifer]

Gosh
https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1323454419204231168

Turnout in Texas already exceeds 2016 for except white non-college educated, who are down on 2016.

Not complaining or anything, but how does this person possibly know?

How can he say "Asian votes are at 153%"? You can analyse exit polls from 2016, but a 2020 ballot is a ballot surely? Nobody asks "are you white and non-college" when you mail vote or early vote.

Voter file information is available. You can check if people voted, but not who they voted for. It's altogether not as secret a ballot as we are used to.

ETA: Woodchopper beat me to it somewhat

[Aoui]

Wow, they really don't go in for privacy much. Declaring party allegiance on voter lists is weird enough.

Must be easy enough to shove this data together with Facebook crap and identify all traitors who voted against the President. Round them up into concentration camps and coast to reelection in 2024 for a third term.

Just because you are in a party, does not mean you vote the party line. You sign up with one or another so that you can vote in a primary. I know tons of registered Republicans that are voting for Biden this year and I know plenty of registered Democrats who have voted Republican many, many times. It's not that you HAVE to vote for the party you are registered in. In fact, a fair number of people register for the other party so they can mess with the primaries. There are plenty of people who vote the party line, but I don't even think that they are in the majority. Being a member of a party means you are "more likely" to vote for that party, but that's about it. So, I don't really understand your view on this, but you are entitled to it none the less. If someone tells how an individual voted, that's a different story. And I worry this year about tiny communities where everyone voted for Biden (5 out of 5 in one place in New Hampshire) and that that might be dangerous for them. However, votes do have to be counted and what's to be done about that?? I do think it a bit scary that it was published in the media. Again, this would usually go unnoticed and usually no one would try to punish them for their votes, but...these are scary times.

[malbui]

Among the medications I’m taking there is one that has the strong side-effect of knocking me out completely. I’m intending to take the maximum permitted dose tonight with the intention of sleeping deeply and soundly until mid-morning tomorrow. I won’t be able to cope with being awake during the night and fear-surfing the news sites.

[EACLucifer]

Among the medications I’m taking there is one that has the strong side-effect of knocking me out completely. I’m intending to take the maximum permitted dose tonight with the intention of sleeping deeply and soundly until mid-morning tomorrow. I won’t be able to cope with being awake during the night and fear-surfing the news sites.

Lucky. I'm expecting the paranoia and irritability I get with diazepam withdrawal to kick in some point either tonight or when I wake up to the news. That's assuming this 19 day long back spasm doesn't spread up to my neck again and necessitate another, in which case I'll get the news coupled with the weird emotional vulnerability and suggestibility of diazepam

[Martin_B]

It's all going to play out very nicely tonight.

Who are you, and what have you done with lpm?

[EACLucifer]

Federal judge has ruled that the GOP plaintiffs don't have standing to throw out 127,000 ballots in Harris County, TX. And agreeing with the Texas State Supreme Court.

He also stated that if they did have standing, he still wouldn't rule in their favour and throw out the ballots, in case a higher court decides to find they did have standing after all.

[dyqik]

Wow, they really don't go in for privacy much. Declaring party allegiance on voter lists is weird enough.

Must be easy enough to shove this data together with Facebook crap and identify all traitors who voted against the President. Round them up into concentration camps and coast to reelection in 2024 for a third term.

Just because you are in a party, does not mean you vote the party line. You sign up with one or another so that you can vote in a primary. I know tons of registered Republicans that are voting for Biden this year and I know plenty of registered Democrats who have voted Republican many, many times. It's not that you HAVE to vote for the party you are registered in. In fact, a fair number of people register for the other party so they can mess with the primaries. There are plenty of people who vote the party line, but I don't even think that they are in the majority. Being a member of a party means you are "more likely" to vote for that party, but that's about it.

Even more confusing for this is New York state, where Trump and Pence are on the ballot twice, once for the Republican Party, and once for the Conservative Party, while Biden and Harris are on the ballot twice, once for the Democratic Party and once for the Working Families Party.

[EACLucifer]

Gosh
https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1323454419204231168

Turnout in Texas already exceeds 2016 for except white non-college educated, who are down on 2016.

We can expect turnout on the day to favour Trump for the most part, as the Democrats strongly encouraged forms of early voting while Republicans denigrated them, and so there is a substantial democrat advantage in early voting. Generally, early voting turnout has been high, especially in places in Texas, but also things like elderly black turnout in Georgia up to 125% of 2016 levels. In some areas, minority ethnic voters may be more likely to vote on the day due to lower trust in VBM, and I'd be unsurprised if the atrocity in Alamance county, with a church march to the polls attacked by police who deliberately pepper-sprayed kids as young as five, saw an increase in black turnout in North Carolina.

Don't be surprised or too worried if on the day turnout favours Trump, and be aware that outside of heavily Democrat precincts, delays and chaos on the day hurt Trump more, especially in states with high early voting levels, like the Sun Belt, regardless of who caused the chaos or delay.

[headshot]

Biden's camp has a plan to neutralise Trump claiming a premature victory: https://www.axios.com/biden-transition- ... 941f2.html

[Lew Dolby]

Carter wasn't re-elected. He was, famously, a one-term president.

Yes. I'm glad you agree.

Sorry - mis-read. [Prob need new glasses, but no real excuse]

[lpm]

Biden's camp has a plan to neutralise Trump claiming a premature victory: https://www.axios.com/biden-transition- ... 941f2.html

I'm surprised the word "Pence" don't appear more often in these things.

A delusional Trump would be completely undermined by a single sentence from Pence. A couple of Senators join in and everyone else rushes to be part of the consensus.

I'd be putting reaching out to Pence top of my list - even if it doesn't pay off it puts Pence in an awful position which would be amusing.

[monkey]

I live opposite a polling station, they've been open 20 mins or so. There's a sizeable queue outside it, which is something I've not seen before. I guess it might seem longer because they're spread out, but I reckon you'll be waiting an hour if you join it now.

[AMS]

Wow, they really don't go in for privacy much. Declaring party allegiance on voter lists is weird enough.

Must be easy enough to shove this data together with Facebook crap and identify all traitors who voted against the President. Round them up into concentration camps and coast to reelection in 2024 for a third term.

Just because you are in a party, does not mean you vote the party line. You sign up with one or another so that you can vote in a primary. I know tons of registered Republicans that are voting for Biden this year and I know plenty of registered Democrats who have voted Republican many, many times. It's not that you HAVE to vote for the party you are registered in. In fact, a fair number of people register for the other party so they can mess with the primaries. There are plenty of people who vote the party line, but I don't even think that they are in the majority. Being a member of a party means you are "more likely" to vote for that party, but that's about it. So, I don't really understand your view on this, but you are entitled to it none the less. If someone tells how an individual voted, that's a different story. And I worry this year about tiny communities where everyone voted for Biden (5 out of 5 in one place in New Hampshire) and that that might be dangerous for them. However, votes do have to be counted and what's to be done about that?? I do think it a bit scary that it was published in the media. Again, this would usually go unnoticed and usually no one would try to punish them for their votes, but...these are scary times.

The party registration thing just seems a bit strange from a UK perspective, as our electoral registration system just records your home address and citizenship (for historical reasons, some foreign nationals can vote here, i.e. Irish and Commonwealth citizens).

The bit about Dixville Notch should get lost in the noise later on. (As an aside, under UK election rules, it is illegal to publish any polling data while the polls are still open, which means even the candidates cannot say who they've voted for.)

[dyqik]

Also, Dixville Notch is at the far north-east corner of New Hampshire, closer to the Canadian border than any major town. While there are Trumpy types up there in the woods, it's the kind of place where even Democrat voters own guns, because they live on farms in the woods, where there are bear, coyotes and wolves.

It's not somewhere where anyone is going to try and cause trouble to intimidate voters. Because there aren't many people, and they've already voted.

[JQH]

And by the sound of things will intimidate right back.

[Grumble]

I need to be in work at 7am tomorrow, so sadly I’ll have to leave all the election watching to those who enjoy that sort of thing. Hope you have fun.

[lpm]

Do you need to be in work AND awake? I'm working tomorrow but might frequently close my eyes to better concentrate on problems.

[lpm]

I haven't heard of any significant voting problems anywhere. No hoards of MagaMorons driving around in trucks or trying to obstruct polling stations with a boat parade. Some silly robocall in Michigan telling people to vote tomorrow seems about it. And this problem in Iowa:

Voters reported a ballot scanner was down at a precinct in Des Moines this morning. Some voters waited a while to place their own paper ballot in the machine. Polk County auditor says it's resolved, and that it was caused by too much hand sanitizer.

[Grumble]

Do you need to be in work AND awake? I'm working tomorrow but might frequently close my eyes to better concentrate on problems.

I have had jobs where I could walk to work, but sadly I have to drive to my current one. Probably best if I’m awake.

[Bird on a Fire]

I'm re-thinking my strategy for tonight. Might keep an eye on this thread, and if it all sounds ok I might try to find a stream of one of the comedy pundits, which is about the level of news I can handle.

Plenty to choose from:

On the lighter side, Stephen Colbert will do a live special at 11 p.m. on Showtime called Stephen Colbert’s Election Night 2020: Democracy’s Last Stand: Building Back America Great Again Better 2020.

Also at 11 p.m. Tuesday, The Daily Show on Comedy Central is giving us Votegasm 2020: What Could Go Wrong? (Again) with Trevor Noah and his team of Daily Show correspondents.

NBC’s Saturday Night Live, which has booked comedian Dave Chappelle to host its post-election episode on Nov. 7 — just as he did after the election in 2016 — will air The 2020 SNL Election Special filled with past political sketches at 10 p.m. tonight on NBC.

https://www.tampabay.com/life-culture/2 ... mentators/