US Election

lpm · Post by **lpm** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 1:37 am

This is remorseless. North Carolina steadily slipping away.

It's going to come down to Pennsylvania and Arizona now. Still on course for 291 if Biden gets them both.

Post by **bjn** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 1:40 am

Neck and neck in Texas now with 45% to go, mostly rural. Bother.

Post by **discovolante** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 1:41 am

I've been kind of busy these last few weeks (don't let my post count fool you) and am now less busy as of this afternoon. I don't think I appreciated how much the stuff i was busy with was shielding me from this election. Or maybe I just subconsciously assumed Biden would win. Either way the prospect of four more years of Trump seems unbearable.

lpm · Post by **lpm** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 1:48 am

Not looking good for the Senate.

North Carolina has Tillis (R) slightly better than Trump, and it's heading to a Trump win...

Post by **bjn** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 1:57 am

Ohio seems to be OK in the presidential race. Half the count has Biden +10

lpm · Post by **lpm** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 1:58 am

Support for the "oh it's just Miami-Dale" theory.

f.cking Florida.

secret squirrel · Post by **secret squirrel** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:03 am

Gusanos true to form.

Post by **Bird on a Fire** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:09 am

I bet there's been loads of Spanish-language fake news in WhatsApp groups drawing equivalency between Biden and ¡¡¡Venezuela!!!1 freaking everyone's granny into voting Trump.

Post by **Bird on a Fire** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:11 am

I'm surprised AZ has been considered such a strong contender for going Blue, seeing as it's a load of rural whites who live near the border.

Post by **El Pollo Diablo** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:11 am

Why would Cubans like Trump? Stockholm syndrome?

lpm · Post by **lpm** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:11 am

Sounds like Biden is also weak with Texas Hispanics along the Rio Grande.

Post by **El Pollo Diablo** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:12 am

Anyway, yes - f.cking florida. Always. Only good thing about sea level rises.

lpm · Post by **lpm** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:12 am

SENATE:

Cornyn (R) has won in Texas.

Post by **Bird on a Fire** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:16 am

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:11 am Why would Cubans like Trump? Stockholm syndrome?

Well specifically they're the (descendants of) Cubans who did really well under Batista's right-wing US-backed kleptocracy before the Revolution, and they all hate anything vaguely leftist because their great grandad couldn't exploit peasants on his plantation any more. I don't think they give a sh.t about other Hispanics. In fact like most right-wingers they can probably only view their success as a function of treading others down.

Post by **bjn** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:17 am

Looks like Trump has won Texas

Post by **El Pollo Diablo** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:17 am

Yeah, was just reading that trump's (ridiculous) socialist messaging plays really well with them and mexicans

Post by **Bird on a Fire** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:19 am

Don't forget it's only undocumented immigrants (and their kids) who have anything directly to fear from the Trump regime. Plenty of Hispanic people's families (especially in the border regions) have been in the area since before that territory became part of the US, and don't necessarily have any interest at all in refugees from Central America, for instance. In much the same way as, say, the Windrush generation don't necessarily like recent immigrants from Africa.

lpm · Post by **lpm** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:19 am

A NY Times analysis of exit polls for FL, Georgia and North Carolina only.

As was clear quite early on, serious problems for Biden in Hispanic and smaller problems with black voters.

Got to move Arizona out of Biden blue and into toss up, surely?

lpm · Post by **lpm** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:28 am

I wish we still had the Bad Science 2018 election night thread to refer back to.

There was a spell during the night when NY Times etc were forecasting the Republicans would keep the house. Poor results for the Democrats in Florida and the east were then steadily reversed by better results further west.

Nickynockynoonoo · Post by **Nickynockynoonoo** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:29 am

Bird on a Fire wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:16 am
El Pollo Diablo wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:11 am Why would Cubans like Trump? Stockholm syndrome?
Well specifically they're the (descendants of) Cubans who did really well under Batista's right-wing US-backed kleptocracy before the Revolution, and they all hate anything vaguely leftist because their great grandad couldn't exploit peasants on his plantation any more. I don't think they give a sh.t about other Hispanics. In fact like most right-wingers they can probably only view their success as a function of treading others down.

Sounds just like a female in the UK cabinet

Post by **El Pollo Diablo** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:33 am

Cleveland and Cincinatti lagging in vote returns at the moment, apparers.

Brightonian · Post by **Brightonian** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:35 am

Been watching the odds on the William Hill site (for presidency, not the popular vote).

About 15 minutes ago Biden was at 8/11 (i.e. "11 to 8 on", if you prefer that format), it changed to Evens, then 6/5, and is now 7/4. Trump was on 11/10 (i.e. "11 to 10 against"), changed to 5/6, then 4/6, and is now 4/9.

Post by **El Pollo Diablo** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:38 am

Biden ahead of Clinton in almost all counties. Except Miami-Dade.

https://twitter.com/kabir_here/status/1 ... overage%2F

Post by **El Pollo Diablo** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:43 am

Dems pick up Colorado senate seat

lpm · Post by **lpm** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:53 am

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:38 am Biden ahead of Clinton in almost all counties. Except Miami-Dade.

https://twitter.com/kabir_here/status/1 ... overage%2F

But...

Arizona was Trump +3.55 in 2016. Not at all convinced the modest swing to Biden is going to win Arizona. Hispanic weakness repeats.

Ohio was Trump +8.13 in 2016. It's fantasy to suppose Ohio will be won. Likewise Iowa.

But Ohio is good news for WI, MI and PA. All <1% in 2016. But black voter weakness? Fraud and suppression?

And what about Nevada?

Scrutable

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