US Election

Post by **bjn** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:46 am

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:41 am Georgia's also missing 80,000 very blue votes due to a polling station error, apparently.

Wouldn’t have made much of a difference.

lpm · Post by **lpm** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:46 am

Actually, Senate would be 49-49 assuming both Georgias head to the run-off.

Won:
CO
AZ (near as damn it)

Lost:
Alabama

Run-offs:
Georgia x2

Possible:
Maine, Iowa, Montana

Post by **bjn** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:50 am

I need to sleep. Feeling terrible.

Post by **bjn** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:55 am

PA looks to be gone. f.ck

End of the republic.

Post by **El Pollo Diablo** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:56 am

f.cks sake, they've counted f.ck all in Pennsylvania, calm down.

secret squirrel · Post by **secret squirrel** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:56 am

A joy of living out east is that I get to keep up with this at work.

Post by **Bird on a Fire** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:05 am

Oof no thanks.

I'd rather wake up, rip the plaster off, and get on with my day.,

lpm · Post by **lpm** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:07 am

Both NE-1 and NE-2 are plausible wins for Biden.

NE-2 is Omaha.

NE-1 is the ring around Omaha. Shouldn't be anywhere near competitive, but on raw vote count so far it's actually better than NE-2.

lpm · Post by **lpm** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:10 am

SENATE:

None of the distant hope for the Democrats are coming in. Republicans hold Texas, Mississippi, Kansas etc.

Post by **El Pollo Diablo** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:13 am

The fun scenario is a 269-269 presidential tie and a 49-49 senate with two run offs in Georgia.

Post by **El Pollo Diablo** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:16 am

More than a million mail-in ballots haven't been counted in Penn yet.

Post by **Bird on a Fire** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:24 am

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:13 am The fun scenario is a 269-269 presidential tie and a 49-49 senate with two run offs in Georgia.

I'm looking forward to your Dutch oven already.

Post by **Bird on a Fire** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:24 am

Can't sleep.

lpm · Post by **lpm** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:25 am

Fox calls ARIZONA for Biden!

Unbelievable a few hours ago that we would be facing this, but this is tonight's first state to switch.

And almost certainly the last state to switch.

WI, MI and PA are going to have to wait days.

NE-1 NE-2 and ME-2 might switch tonight, though.

lpm · Post by **lpm** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:28 am

Though need to keep worrying about Nevada switching the other way...

lpm · Post by **lpm** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:29 am

Iowa is doing a Ohio.

Looking quite good for Biden early on, but Trump will start to stretch away.

Post by **bjn** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:32 am

Bird on a Fire wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:24 am Can't sleep.

Yo tambien.

secret squirrel · Post by **secret squirrel** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:35 am

It really is incredible what 7 decades of anti-Soviet pro free market propaganda has done to the American mind. A warning from history to future historians (if there are any).

lpm · Post by **lpm** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:36 am

Current state of play.

Biden is at 227.

He must hold Minnesota (10) and Nevada (6), both won by Clinton.

Takes him to 243.

Must capture Wisconsin (10) and Michigan (16).

Takes him to 269 tie.

Must take one of NE-1, NE-2 or ME-2 to get to 270-268 victory.

Would not then need Pennsylvania (20) or Iowa (6). Or for that matter the still-not-guaranteed-for-Trump Georgia (16) or North Carolina (15).

Post by **Woodchopper** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:38 am

Looks like we won’t know the result for a while. MI, PA and WI will take a long time to count, probably days.

Good that Biden picked up AZ. ETA or has likely picked it up.

lpm · Post by **lpm** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:44 am

As a reminder of the 538 final polling averages:

Minnesota +9.1
Wisconsin +8.3
Michigan +8.0
Nevada +6.1

The Florida polling f.ck up was 5.6. Of which a good chunk was specific Cuban-Hispanic. Polling error in New Hampshire was only in the region of 2.

I think I should be able to sleep a bit with those kinds of odds. If Biden fails to win those four states, f.ck him and f.ck America.

But then needs Pennsylvania (+4.7 per polls) and/or the NE-1 NE2 ME-2 add-ons.

(ETA and still a slim chance of reversing the current bad position in Georgia and North Carolina)

Post by **bjn** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:45 am

Biden is 16% behind in PA, with half the vote counted. The big cities have finished their count yet.

monkey · Post by **monkey** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:46 am

Woodchopper wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:38 am Looks like we won’t know the result for a while. MI, PA and WI will take a long time to count, probably days.

Good that Biden picked up AZ.

As far as I can tell, only Fox has said that so far. Same for Florida (for Trump).

lpm · Post by **lpm** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:53 am

SENATE:

Hard to believe, but Collins (R) is well ahead in Maine.

Iowa is going wrong. Democrats could lose one of their 3 House seats, Senate win looks very unlikely.

Only net +1 on the night for the Democrats, to take it from 53-47 to 52-48. Maybe Montana, and then the Georgia run-off.

Post by **Bird on a Fire** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:55 am

Bird on a Fire wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:24 am
El Pollo Diablo wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:13 am The fun scenario is a 269-269 presidential tie and a 49-49 senate with two run offs in Georgia.
I'm looking forward to your Dutch oven already.

Just realised I should have said "I can smell your Dutch oven already."

What a missed opportunity.

Scrutable

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