US Election

[Squeak]

Both parties have historically indulged in gerrymandering but the Republicans worked really hard in the 2010 election to flip particular seats in particular states to maximise their control of redistricting and then used some fancy GIS analysis to ramp up the effectiveness of their gerrymandering. I believe that it was seen as being somewhat ungentlemanly, like turning up to a duel with an AR-15 instead of a flintlock pistol.

It's been a while since I read about it so I don't have a handy source, but I think that's the gist of it.

[lpm]

Fortunately the 2020 election will see Trump drag the entire Republican Party to disaster, losing the Senate, more House seats and state houses across the country.

Not only will it be a massive repudiation of Trump, it will be the start of a golden age of democracy.

Roll on November 3rd. Can't wait.

[AMS]

Just listening to Biden's announcement. I can't recall having really listened to him before, but "sleepy Joe" does seem an accurate nickname, I'm sorry to say.

He might well be an awful President, by the standards of actual Presidents (i.e., the first 44). I don't care. I don't care about the Senate not going blue either. Really all I care about now is the executive branch restoring proper oversight of Federal institutions. (A bonus would be most of the Trump family going to jail --- which the FBI and judges will now be able to achieve without interference.)

Yes, to all of this.

It also means the FBI and CIA will have the administrative backing to get real about tackling Russian election interference.

[Woodchopper]

Nate Silver on Arizona

We may need to do a longer post on Arizona later. What’s left to count is mostly mail votes that were returned late in the process — on Monday or Tuesday. There’s some ambiguity about how many ballots this actually is; Edison Research seems to think around 450,000. If so, Trump would need to win those votes by 21 points to overtake Biden’s current 93,000-vote lead. They’re distributed fairly evenly throughout the state.

Wait — outstanding mail votes? Shouldn’t those be good for Biden, as they are in other states? Well, not necessarily, because Republicans have a fairly strong mail voting program in Arizona and — this is the key part — the mail ballots that were returned later in the process (the ones yet to be counted) were significantly redder than the ones that came in earlier on, as Democrats sent their votes in early. For instance, the party registration breakdown of the votes that came in Monday and Tuesday was: 23 percent Democratic, 44 percent Republican, and 33 percent independent or other parties. That is to say, a 21-point GOP edge, which would put Trump on track to tie things up.

But … here’s the bad news for Trump. Party registration may be a misleading indicator in Arizona. The state has a lot of ancestral Republicans who have now turned into swing voters. Biden also had a big lead among independents in polls. And earlier batches of mail ballots were considerably stronger for Biden than party registration alone would suggest. So probably these ballots are going to come in more for Trump than for Biden, but not as strongly as he needs.

There’s also the fact that two other news organizations, the Associated Press and Fox News, have called the state for Biden. I’d assume they’ve looked into this more than I have, so that shifts my priors a bit, but you never know and you do get incorrect calls occasionally. Overall, I’d say this is Likely Biden, but I don’t think the state should have been called yet.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2 ... -coverage/

[sTeamTraen]

Remind me again, which one's Uday and which one's Qusay?* I presume they will be off to the Federal Reserve in a truck to load up with a couple of billion in gold and bearer bonds (whatever they are, but they seem to be a way that bad people transport money) in the morning.




*I have enough trouble with Ant and Dec, and at least they always stand in the same order.

[lpm]

Hey! Chart nerds! Here is a chart! It's got an equation and everything. Sorry it's not exponential.

It moves down from top right to bottom left over time, Trump's lead steadily diminishing as uncounted PA votes come in.

Trump need to bend the curve.

[lpm]

I hereby claim, for sleeping purposes, my bed.

[Gfamily]

The inevitable Downfall parody

https://twitter.com/MikkoAlanne/status/ ... 7856534528

Downfall.PNG (261.61 KiB) Viewed 4068 times

[dyqik]

Hey! Chart nerds! Here is a chart! It's got an equation and everything. Sorry it's not exponential.

It moves down from top right to bottom left over time, Trump's lead steadily diminishing as uncounted PA votes come in.

Trump need to bend the curve.

So he needs his supporters to stay home and wear a mask?

[dyqik]

Record number of new CoVID cases today, btw.

If both Georgia Senate elections go to runoffs in January after another couple of months of surging cases and Trump batshittery...

[secret squirrel]

The deranged chuds of my facebook feed already up in arms about voter fraud.

[Martin_B]

As of 10:30 am my time (~2:30 am UK) there were 5 states not called (although I think a couple more states may change if they are allowed to count all the votes):

Georgia: Trump leads by 36,880 with ~99,000 votes to be counted. Biden needs 69% of the remaining votes.
North Carolina: Trump leads by 76,701 with ~348,000 votes to be counted. Biden needs 61% of the remaining votes.
Pennsylvania: Trump leads by 186,760 with ~777,000 votes to be counted. Biden needs 62% of the remaining votes.
Alaska: Trump leads by 54,610 with ~191,000 votes to be counted. Biden needs 64.5% of the remaining votes.
Nevada: Biden leads by 7,647 with ~398,000 votes to be counted. Biden needs 47% of the remaining votes.

I think (with the possible exception of Alaska) the remaining votes to be counted are postal ballots. There is some suggestion that some of the Georgia votes to be counted are election day ballots from inner-city areas. Either would appear to favour Biden, some have suggested by a 3-1 margin (so 75%). This could mean that all go Democrat (except Alaska - I refuse to believe that'll go Democrat!), giving Biden a 321-217 win.


The House is currently 204-190 to the Democrats with 41 races to to announced. Those races (based on current count) look like going 15 to the Dems (with ~6 very close) and 25 to the Reps (with ~12 close). There is also one virtual tie (Iowa 2nd is ~300 vote difference in a ~400,000 vote election!) The Democrats should get the 14 they need to keep control, but it looks close.


The Senate is currently 48-46 to the Republicans, with 2 independents (both tend to be Democrat-leaning) and of the 4 remaining races the Republicans should win 3, and might win the Georgia special election too, if it goes to a run-off and Kelly Loeffler gets all of Doug Collins' support. So that looks like ending up 52-46(+2) and makes Mitch McConnell the most powerful person in the Republican party.

[Bewildered]

Nevada looks frighteningly close now...

[monkey]

Kanye West has conceded.

[Martin_B]

Nevada looks frighteningly close now...

Parts of Nevada look frightening from a long way away, all the time

[Little waster]

Record number of new CoVID cases today, btw.

If both Georgia Senate elections go to runoffs in January after another couple of months of surging cases and Trump batshittery...

I’m confuzzled I’ve had it on good authority that we’ll never hear about COVID COVID COVID ever again the day after the election. In much the same way Brexit was “done” forever last Christmas.

[El Pollo Diablo]

I confidently told Mrs PD last night that there would be a result by the morning.

[Grumble]

I confidently told Mrs PD last night that there would be a result by the morning.

Did you specify which morning?

[Vertigowooyay]

FFS, Arizona seems to be in play again.

[El Pollo Diablo]

is anyone even counting any more?

[lpm]

FFS, Arizona seems to be in play again.

Why care, when PA has taken Biden to victory?

[Vertigowooyay]

is anyone even counting any more?

If you are wondering how Arizona went from being called for Joe Biden, to now appearing to be in play, then this Arizona Republic report explains. In a contrast to the scenes that unfolding up in the ‘rust belt’, the late counted mail-in ballots are breaking for the president. They report:

As Maricopa County released the results from 140,000 more ballots on Wednesday night and Thursday morning, president Donald Trump received almost the exact share he would need to charge back to win Arizona’s 11 electoral votes and potentially reelection.

Trump won the batches of ballots from Maricopa County counted Wednesday and early Thursday by a roughly 57-40 margin over former vice president Joe Biden.

Those votes — likely early ballots sent to the county on Monday and Tuesday — narrowed Biden’s lead over Trump in Arizona to 68,000 votes, when his lead had been more than 90,000 votes earlier Wednesday.

Paul Bentz, a Republican pollster with the consulting firm HighGround, said Trump needs to win 57.6% of the 470,000 votes that the Arizona Republic estimates remain to be counted.

“That’s almost exactly what he got in the first batch,” Bentz said. “He could do it.”

However, there is this to counter:

Jennifer Medina at the New York Times has this though – suggesting that Trump still faces an uphill battle to clinch the state:

"Trump would have to receive at least 57 percent of votes that remain to be counted in other parts of the state as well, including counties that tend to vote Democratic.

Biden’s narrow edge underscored a profound political shift in Arizona, a longtime Republican bastion that has lurched left in recent years, fueled by rapidly evolving demographics and a growing contingent of young Latino voters who favor liberal policies."

[El Pollo Diablo]

Just to throw an extra little worry in there, I f.cking bet you there'll be some faithless elector b.llsh.t going on as well

[lpm]

Why care, when Georgia is still heading Biden's way?*






* on track to win by about 5,000, by my calcs.

[lpm]

GEORGIA:

Trump lead: 18,540

Votes left: loads and loads